Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
The establishment survey showed a gain of 195,000 and that is a very respectable number. However, the household survey shows a more modest gain of 160,000 jobs.
The civilian labor force rose by 177,000 thus the unemployment rate was steady at 7.6%. Digging beneath the surface, the numbers do not look so good.
326,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost
Involuntary part-time jobs increased by 322,000 while voluntary part-time jobs increased by another 110,000. Thus, of the 160,000 household survey gain, 486,000 of them were part-time jobs, a loss of 326,000 full-time jobs. This caused a spike of 0.5 percentage points in U6 (alternative unemployment) to 14.3%.
The Participation Rate rose 0.1 to 63.5%, 0.2 higher than the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.
Obamacare Effect
Last month there was no jump in part-time employment which had me wondering if the the bulk of the Obamacare effect (employers reducing hours from 32 to 25 and hiring hundreds of thousands of new employees to make up the hours) had mostly played out.
This month, the trend of huge part-time employment resumed, and in a major way.
June BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
- Payrolls +195,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment +160,000 – Household Survey
- US Unemployment +17,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work +322,000 – Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work +110,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate +0.0 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment +0.5 to 14.3% – Household Survey
- Civilian Labor Force +177,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force +12,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate +0.1 at 63.5 – Household Survey
…
