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Thursday, December 1, 2022

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Friday Flip-Flop – Draghi Fools Some of the People All of the Time

And up we go again!

On April 7th, Draghi promised us MORE FREE MONEY and the Dow went from 14,600 to 14,875 in a couple of days.  On June 6th, Draghi promised us MORE FREE MONEY and the Dow went from 14,900 to 15,300 in a couple of days.  Yesterday, Draghi promised us MORE FREE MONEY and the Dow closed at 14,988 and we'll see if we can crach 15,200 on this run, which is still 5% BELOW our "Must Hold" line on the Dow (16,000).  But then the trick it to hold that for at least two straight days or we still don't have any kind of bullish signal.  

Click to ViewWe do have a bullsh*t signal as the market surged higher on essentially no volume Monday morning and again on tuesday morning and again at noon on Wednesday but, otherwise, the selling is relentless.  Russell 1,000 is the only Must Hold line likely to get crossed on this morning's pump job and that would make it 3 of 5 if they do hold it with both the Dow and the NYSE (9,500 goal) not even over their -5% lines.  So, even if we do get that Russell cross, we still need the Dow to confirm. 

As you can see from the Doug Short Chart on the left, we're still well above our 2007 highs on the S&P – although things didn't go so well after that what with China collapsing and Europe having trouble and our Corporate Citizens turning in a disappointing Q3.  I'm sure THIS TIME it's different – for one thing – it's only Q2!  

134129 600 Qualify for a Job cartoonsNothing really matters today until we get our Non-Farm Payroll numbers and those don't matter as of Tuesday, when we begin to get those Q2 earnings reports.  There's no certainty that it's going to be bad news.  We have a lot of indications that are keeping us cautious but the real question is – can the news be GOOD ENOUGH to sustain all-time highs on the S&P?  

As I said in Tuesday's post: "Show us the money" – then we're more than happy to get bullish again but, for now, I feel a lot better preparing to be disappointed.  

8:30 Update:  195,000 jobs were added in June (much better than 165K expected) but the big news is a 70,000 job upward revision to the prior two months.  Nonetheless, the unemployment RATE is still 7.6%, which is good from the perspective that it keeps the Fed's foot on the gas as so many people are entering the work-force that it's washing out the job gains.  

Not to put a damper on things, but the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 322,000 to 8.2 million in June.  That's keeping hourly earnings very depressed.  These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job (A-8 on the tables).  Also not counted are 2.6M people who are "marginally attached" to the labor force – people who have been unemployed but have not looked for work in 4 weeks and are thrown off the official tally.  

So, encouraging headlines but that's about it and we're certainly going use this rally to press our shorts into next week's earnings – and then we'll see what's real and what's not.  

Have a great weekend, 

– Phil

 

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tought you guys might enjoy

 

10 Signs That You're Fully Awake

 

1. You know there's no meaningful difference between major political parties (Democrats and Republicans):

It's so easy to get caught up the left-right debate and believe there's a difference between the two major political parties. However, debate is one thing, while actions are another. By their deeds you shall know them, and it is indisputable that there is no significant difference between political parties when it comes to action on the most important issues. Even hardened ideologues like John Cusack are beginning to wake up.

 

2. You understand that the international central banking institutions are the engine of our economic problems:

Debt slavery is the totalitarian force that threatens all of humanity, not some temporary political puppet or some greedy Wall Street trader. When a small group of people have the ability to create wealth out of nothing and charge interest on it, they have the ability to enslave the planet to their ownership despite what type of government a country claims to have.

 

3. You know that preemptive war is never necessary:

When we realize that self-defense is the only acceptable form of violence, then we become awakened human beings. To suggest war because someone is different from you, or they may pose a threat in the future is simply ludicrous. And when did the idea of bombing civilians become humanitarian? No one wants war except for the immoral creeps that benefit from it.

 

4. You know that you're being systematically poisoned, how, by whom, and why:

Admittedly, there's a lot to learn in terms of how we are secretly being poisoned. But the fact remains that we are being systematically poisoned, and it is likely for the deliberate purpose of dumbing us down and, ultimately, culling the population. Who could believe anyone is so evil to do that to innocent people, you may ask. Well, once you begin to seek the answer to that question, you're one step closer to enlightenment.

 

5. You understand that government can never legislate morality, nor should they:

When you realize the role of government is only to protect your liberty and work for the well being of the citizens, you're awakened. There should be one simple law regulating morality: Do no harm. Thus, it's impossible for the government to enforce morality with guns, cages, and taxes because those clearly cause severe harm to your liberty and our well-being.

 

6. You know that the mainstream media is wholly owned and manipulated by the ruling elite:

A dwindling number of people still actually believe what they hear coming from the establishment media as if it's gospel, even when they already accept that they are bought and paid for by the elite controllers. Yet, recognizing that they are nothing more than a propaganda machine and a form of mind control are the first steps in being able to critically think beyond the scientific messaging they broadcast.

 

7. You know that your neighbors are not your enemy even if you have fierce ideological disagreements:

This is perhaps the most difficult thing to overcome in the awakening process. But it's vital to understand that your neighbors have been indoctrinated and hypnotized like the rest of the us, until someone helps shine a light on inconsistencies in our thoughts and beliefs. Most of their ideas are not their own. They are suffering just like the rest of us. It's okay to condemn their actions if they're harmful, but those who are awake will not give up on spreading information that can enlighten those who might still be in the dark. None of us were born "awake" and all of us can learn even more.

 

8. You know that the endgame is one-world control of planet Earth:

Once you understand that the endgame for the ruling elite is to have complete control of all vital facets of society through a global government, one-world currency, international armed forces, and so on, it is simple to see through the lies and propaganda surrounding even the most confusing world events. You will never go back to sleep when you fully accept this reality.

 

9. You recognize that there are esoteric powers manipulating our physical world:

Whether you're a religious or spiritual person, scientific or just plain curious, there are many theories about an invisible force at play in all of this. Obviously it's impossible to prove exactly what it is. You may not want to believe it, but the ruling elite takes their occult rituals deadly serious. And they likely know something we don't. Just by keeping an open mind about this possibility, you'll forever keep an open mind about the things we can actually see, hear, taste and touch. Current science has shown that we can only "see" what the visible light spectrum reveals, which amounts to the tiniest fraction of all that can theoretically be seen within the full spectrum of energy. Part of any awakening is realizing that there is much more that is possible than impossible.

 

10. The power to change the world rests with you and you alone:

For too long people have believed themselves to be weak, or relied on others to change the world for them. You'll know that you're fully awake when you realize that you have infinite power to change the world by simply living the change you want to see. First, you have to identify the principles that you believe in and then go out and live by them. If just a small minority took steps to do this, it would shake the establishment to its core.

Psychological studies would tend to indicate that selling Samsung might be a good idea tomorrow, notwithstanding that it has absolutely nothing to do with aviation.

Thanks Phil for the encouragement and jfaw's ABX examples.

wombat-good list for fully awake

wombat/Fully Awake  Nice list, but I won't spend too much time worrying about any of them.

Instead, I tend to prefer mindfullness and being in the here and now, while being aware of the rest of this 'stuff'

Mindfullness helps you to be a better person, parent and spouse. It helps you to see the forest and the trees.

I like this guy:

http://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/8750.Jon_Kabat_Zinn

 

In the meantime, I'll keep an eye out for all the rest, read PSW daily and practice living mindfully….. 🙂

Good morning, hope everyone had a good weekend!

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