Courtesy of Mish.
Retail sales were up 0.4% in June compared to Bloomberg estimates of +0.8%. May retail sales were revised lower, to +0.5% from an originally reported +0.6%.
The increase seems healthy enough until you dive into the details. Here are some retail sales comments from Bloomberg to help put things into perspective.
- Restaurants and bars decreased 1.2 percent in June, the most since February 2008.
- Sales dropped 2.2 percent at building materials outlets, the most since May 2012.
- Purchases at department stores declined 1 percent in June.
- Retail sales excluding autos and gasoline unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent.
- Purchases rose 2.4 percent at furniture and home furnishing chains, the most since May 2012.
- Automobile dealer sales rose 1.8 percent
- Purchases excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, which render the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, rose 0.1 percent after a 0.2 percent increase in the previous month.
That last bullet point explains why the next GDP number will likely be below stall speed.
Yet economists still predict the US economy will expand at 2.3% in the third quarter. I will take the under (not that there is much meaning to GDP numbers in the first place).
Census Bureau Report
Let’s now take a look at some charts from the ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES JUNE 2013 report by the Census Bureau.
Retail Sales vs. Previous Months
Retail Sales vs. Last Year
Retail Sales Synopsis…
