Courtesy of Mish.
A couple days ago Bloomberg reported Polls Indicate Merkel’s Coalition Is Likely to Win Election.
CDU/CSU will get 40 percent of votes, coalition partner FDP 6.5 percent, according to a poll conducted by Institut fuer Demoskopie Allensbach on behalf of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper. The total of 46.5 percent compares to a combined 44 percent of the other parties moving into parliament, comprising the SPD that polled 25.5 percent, Greens with 12.5 percent and Die Linke 6 percent.
CDU/CSU will get 41 percent of votes, one percentage point less than a week earlier and FDP 5 percent, one percentage point more, according to an Emnid poll on behalf of the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. The combined 46 percent compares to 45 percent of the other parties moving into parliament, comprising SPD with 26 percent, Greens polling 12 percent and Die Linke 7 percent.
What About AfD?
Neither poll mentioned the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) as if it would not reach the 5% threshold for parliament.
I asked Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD party leader) his take on the Bloomberg poll. Bernd responded …
Hello Mish,
Poll 1 by Allensbach Institut is made on behalf of CDU via Frankfurter Allgemeine – it has been my practice in the past years to disregard any poll coming from them. Allensbach are notoriously CDU friendly and notoriously wrong.
Poll 2 by Emnid on behalf of Bild Zeitung is equally shaky and Bild Zeitung is another CDU-friendly tabloid.
We will see lots of polls coming out of Germany in the next weeks but half the country is on vacation and people will say anything to get pollsters out of the way.
In my circles, I know of at least 5 people who claim they have lied to pollsters on purpose. I believe this is more common than one thinks.
I sense a shift going through the country. The population in Germany hates anything that has got to do with violation of data protection. As a single subject this topic outweighs any crisis of the EURO in Spain, Greece or else by a huge margin.
The facts that have become known to the German population via Mr. Snowden’s revelations are a real sore point for the German electorate. Germany’s voters feel that Mrs. Merkel’s position on the issue is too soft and that she is hiding facts.
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