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Tuesday, February 7, 2023

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Turn-Down Tuesday – Even Coke is Having Problems!

7-15-2013 6-55-48 PM gdpKO disappointed.  

It's not good when Coca-Cola misses revenues.  It's usually an indication that the consumer is really hurting.  Net Income fell to .59 for the quarter, down from .61 last year but it was the 3% drop in Revenue that was surprisingly light, leading CEO Muhtar Kent (a straight-shooter – see my 2010 interview) to state he "was not happy with our performance."  The beverage maker cited "a challenging global macroeconomic environment" and bad weather for its performance.  

Rather than shorting KO, we're shorting oil this morning and I sent out a tweet early this morning, identifying a shorting opportuntiy on /CL Oil Futures at $106.45 but we stopped out of those at $106.50 and now we're looking at the $107 line as our next shorting target, waiting for the big drop we are fairly positive is going to come as we head into the NYMEX contract rollover next Monday.  I'm not going to get into it again (see last few weeks of posts) but the bottom line is they have faked way too many orders for September and now they have just 5 sessions to cancel or roll 130,000 contracts, about 25,000 contracts per session and, yesterday, they only managed to get rid of 13,000 – that does not bode well for the NYMEX Fraudsters.  

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Aug'13 106.44 106.74 105.91 106.47 05:23
Jul 16

 



0.15 16473 106.32 138979 Call Put
Sep'13 105.96 106.24 105.46 106.05 05:23
Jul 16

 



0.13 6807 105.92 336220 Call Put
Oct'13 104.64 104.80 104.11 104.66 05:23
Jul 16

 



0.17 1101 104.49 125043 Call Put
Nov'13 103.20 103.20 102.75 103.06 05:23
Jul 16

 



0.07 561 102.99 74312 Call Put
Dec'13 101.63 101.82 101.16 101.77 05:23
Jul 16

 



0.21 1132 101.56 211463 Call Put

By next Monday, all but maybe 15,000 of those contract (1,000 barrels per contract) will disappear.  This will create an artificial shortage of oil in August as no orders mean no deliveries and no deliveries mean inventories will be drawn down, whether demand is actually there or not.  We'll watch this crime in action this week as NYMEX Terrorists threaten our Nation's energy security by tearing up oil contracts (that are already approved for delivery), choking off the supply of oil to our great nation and extorting Billions of excess Dollars from US Consumers at the pump, in the Airlines and to heat, cool and power their homes and businesses.  

As usual, our leaders will do nothing.  

No wait, I take it back.  As usual, our leaders will collect another $30M in bribes from the Koch Brothers.  That's the Koch's average annual spending to buy better themselves better Government.  It's only a sliver of their $50Bn fortune (50,000 Million and, as you can see from the chart on the left – they sure get their money's worth) but there's only 435 Members of the House of Representatives and 100 Senators and $30M/535 is still $56,000 per Congressman from the Koch brothers alone.  Given that about half of those Congresspeople are Democrats, who generally get $0 from the Kochs – we're into 6-figure pay-offs to the average Republican.

In fact, according to the Kochs, those bribes alone makes their Republican cronies 3x richer than the top 1% (I kid you not, this is their actual video explaining it):

That's right you "poor" people – suck it up, you're 10 TIMES richer than people who are REALLY poor so stop your whining and vote to end that minimum wage so you can compete fairly with people making $2.50 a day in China!  

According to the Koch Brothers, making $34,000 a year for a family of 4 puts you in the Global Top 1% – so your interests and their interests are perfectly aligned!  If this is the kick-off to the 2014 mid-term election strategy for the GOP, I know a lot of Democratic strategists who will be having a party this weekend!  

The GOP is convinced they are going to take back the Senate next November because Americans are sick and tired of getting JOBS and having PEACE and PROSPERITY, with a stock market that is now up 200% since finally getting rid of George Bush II in 2009.  We don't want those high-mileage cars or roads without potholes to drive them on.  We want FREEly poluted water and air that you can cut with a knife – just like China!  

That's how we compete globally in the Koch Brothers Fantasy Camp – drop US wages to be on-par with the rest of the World (10% of what we make now on average), stop taxing Corporations and Wealthy Individuals (like the Kochs) and let those Corporations do what they want (as if they don't already).  

If you aren't for those things – you are a Godless, Anti-American Communist who should stop voting and leave the country (where the new immigration laws will prevent you from coming back).  

Speaking of Godless Communists, China financial instability du jour is an 800% increase in WMPs, or "Wealth Management Products" where over $1Tn of Chinese savings (the size of Australia's total economy) is now in instruments that are, essentially, Ponzi schemes, where the investor puts in money for "guaranteed" 1% WEEKLY returns.  

As investors pile in, financial firms need more inflows of cash to pay off maturing products, resulting in mounting risks that prompted China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Xiao Gang to call them a “Ponzi scheme” even before the latest record purchases. Issuance of new products and borrowing from the interbank market are among the most common ways banks pay out maturing WMPs, according to Fitch.

The WMP market has inflated to a huge size,” said Wilson Li, a Shenzhen-based analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co. “Should they go bust, Chinese banks have their reputation on the line, and they face the risk of compensating investors because of pressure from the general public.”  A record 1,137 WMPs were sold by about 70 banks in the two weeks ended June 28, an increase of almost 50 percent from the first two weeks of the month, according to Benefit Wealth, a Chengdu, China-based consulting firm that tracks the data back to 2007. 

“In an environment where liquidity is tight, banks will find it more and more difficult to attract fresh money to keep the game going,” said May Yan, a bank analyst at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong. “Until investors are hit by a real default, they won’t understand what they are really buying into.

Our June CPI was 20% too strong (up 0.5% for the month) and our Chain Store Sales were 20% too weak (up 3% from last year vs. up 3.6% last week) and Retail Store Sales were DOWN 1.1% for the week vs +3% last week and that's dropped the annual run rate from +2.9% to +1.7% on this week's total disaster as people's disposable income goes into the gas tank – THIS IS NOT COMPLICATED FOLKS!!!

The American consumer is at the end of their rope and it's not like Europeans or Asians or Emerging Marketeers are carrying the consumer ball for the Global Economy.  Corporations are not spending and the Fed is telling them that, IF they hire, THEN the Fed will cut off the Free Money.  So, surprise, surprise – THEY'RE NOT HIRING!   Again, not complicated – very simply cause and effect all around.

On the bright side, Goldman Sachs DOUBLED their profits to $1.93Bn as endless supplies of Free Fed Money was converted into incredible trading gains on the stocks, currencies and commodities they manipulate – accounting for $2.46Bn of the bank's Revenues.  Oh, and please, please, PLEASE do not bee fooled by "just $1.93Bn" in profits for GS – that's AFTER they distributed $3.7Bn to compensate their employees (32,000, so $1M each if distributed evenly, which it's not!) through bonuses on the $1.93Bn the company allowed to trickle down to their stocksuckersholders.  

Don't bother sending this article to your Congressman if you want things to change – send them a check instead – that's how the Koch brothers get things done!  

 

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PSW / practice 
TOS in a bit confusing to me. So I sold short calls for $10, that cash would immediately show up in your Net Liq, or total account balance.
So if I make a 50% profit, and buy back the calls – my account would be less $5.
Or, is another way to look at it – someone gave me $10, and I simply gave them back $5 ; >

How do you guys manage whats really inyour accounts ?

Phil –

 

Any news on the new website or Yahoo stuff?

Angel:  FWIW, one of the best money manager in Europe [F. Parames, Bestinver] who happens to be Spanish and hasn't touched Spanish equities for a few years now said last week that Spain now offered good value in equities, having undergone substantial internal devaluation [salaries].

Phil: Thanks. injustice- insanity.

phil,

if i were to close everything right now i would wind up with a -21k overall.  price roughly 109.50

if i close everything but leave the sht 150;s then im down 2k. 

but does it make sense to have sht call w/o sht puts.

what about leave the sht 150 and close all the 125's and the sht jan 15 95 puts and then sell 10 jan 80 puts for about 7. 

i would be left w/ 10 sht jan 5 150' s and sht 10 jan 80's.

the puts have a delta of .20 vs the .45 of the calls so that would still be net bearish…….and reduce my exposure……..not sure if it makes sense.

i am looking to take a little off the table with todays move…or just close half of puts/ sht calls and half of the 100 long calls…basically leaving me w/ half position except for the 150;s…………..hope it makes sense…………amazing how u keep track ……………your thoughts…………..tks

PharmTHLD chart looking pretty interesting, I decided to close my covers here and run naked…

Zero: AGNC, CIM, NLY are what I remember.

as a hedge to the gas gouging we are about to experience…the refiners have pulled back near 200d ma…and crack spread bottoming…up 34 % this week…should be good for bounce as long as market doesn't swoon psx, vlo, tso  france says fin transaction tax to include fx.        brazil mulling another round of tax hikes..that will go over well   more cuts coming too…so the populace is already rioting and another round of govt spending cuts/tax hikes on the way.   and inflation getting out of control..

ZOZO//THANKS!

it will be like carnevale!

AGN/pstas – yes.  Bearish now, but it is Sept 95s and we are 1/2 out.

THLD/mrm – hummm, insiders are selling and they are rocketing up on no news….so, stock offering in the making??  1/2 naked is ok, full, not quite ready for it.

TSLA – my July 110 puts I thought were dead water.  Now I am back to even, and done with that Momo.

AUD/USD above 92.5c entering a new short (target 85c by Jan 2014)

Pharm // AGN
??? did you just close half or are you naked on the $100's //

hillsenrath out..
 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324348504578609951521236118.html
 how the hell is that leaked unless somebody is paying a lot for it…no other way

Oh am I gonna have some Motley Fool Picks for Vegas…..

AGN/wombat – um, Sept 95s.  Aug 100s were PCYC, no?

Not do anything – Phil/ Hardest lesson I'm learning here.  Thanks.

AGN – it was a buy of the Sept 95s on them and the PCYC trade was 100/105s.  We closed 1/2 the PCYC the other day for a free ride.  The AGNs some took 20%, I held and then sold 1/2, saying we would buy back in at 1.70 or so.  Not quite ready yet.

I am rolling up my Aug 36 USO Ps to Aug 37s.  Now things are getting interesting on the other TA direction, down.

I HAD NEVER BEEN TO VEGAS BEFORE THIS PAST JUNE WENT OUT ON BUISNESS (SERIOUSLY) AND LOVED IT STAYED AT BELLAGIO CAESAR'S LOOKED GRAND BEHIND IT..WHAT A WONDERFUL SPOT HIKED THE RED ROCK CANON LOVED IT!

HAVE A BLAST!

PETX rocking today.  When do they get options?

angel – seriously?  No!

Vegas – After the AC conference I am really disappointment not be able to make Vegas.  Sounds fantastic and anyone who chooses to go, it's well worth it.  Seems the hotel isn't much more expensive than we paid in Jersey.

YES BUISNESS MY UNCLES 80TH..(THATS BUISNESS IN OUR FAMILY!)

  "zimmerman family suspects obama is tapping their phones"..hahaha…did they think they were special or something?

BAHAHAHA

millcreek

Phil Made a very good comment this morning in ref. to moving around to much once you have set up your play.

In deed I do have quite a veriety of TSLA positions The last once added was a 65/165 Jan 14  strangle. The logic on this stock is, it is pumped up to high and it will fall down to a more resonable level. I just sit down have bier in the biergarden and watch then running around like headless chicken.

Phil/PCLN death wish earnings strangle. This stock is better than white powder šŸ™‚ If I look at the Aug 13 900 strangle it is selling for $74.50 – I believe based on a previous discussion this is roughly the move that is expected based on option pricing after earnings.

 

The August 950/850 strangle is selling for $34.50. Apart from the insanity of the idea, do you see any 'value' in going for a crap shoot on this one, recognizing that the losing side will be rolled out and down?

 

Permission given to totally crucify me.

Thanks, Newt

 

Phil /Spain:  Not trying to convince anyone at PSW, but, to the extent it matters, there are a number of people whose opinions I respect suggesting that the Euro could take a serious whack, low 1.20s, going forward.  Not surprising, but timing is everything.

Very interesting:  The FDA approves the first brain wave test that could help diagnose children and teens with ADHD. Called the NEBA system, the 20-minute test uses an electroencephalogram to calculate the ratio of two brain wave frequencies, called theta and beta, which studies have shown is higher in children and teens with ADHD. The device can be used in patients between the ages of 6 and 17 as part of a complete psychological examination to either help confirm diagnosis or bolster a doctor's decision that more testing for is needed.

0X0 – um, I could not agree more (Euro).  When…when…when.

FXE Jan14 125s are 1.60.  Time to 'ease' into 'these'.  A few for a rainy day!! šŸ™‚

Two questions Phil – for some reason it's escaping me how to find the volume for each of the indices in TOS.  It used to show me in the left hand column under the indices tab, but it doesn't any longer.  What do you use most often to locate this info?

Secondly, I have a remaining $34 call from a SCO July $35/38 bull call spread, where I sold a $35 put for net $.35.  I bought back the short call when it dropped to $.65, then sold it again for $1.52, for a new net credit of $.52.  I bought that new call back for $.25 on the last rise in oil, rolled the $35 put to the Aug $34 put for $.15 credit, and rolled the $35 call to the Aug $34 call for $1.15, for a new net of $.73.  The $34 call is now $.47.  Would you advise rolling the call down in strike to say $30 for $1.10 and selling something like an Oct $33 call for $1.70 and rolling the short put out to Oct for $1.00?

PCLN/Winston – yeap, I will tell you:  PCLN moves more than 10% average on earnings and you are insuring for less.  You ONLY make SOME money if it stays in that range while you can lose a fortune if it blasts out.  Look at TLSA today – what if that's PCLN on earnings and what if most of that move is before you have a chance to adjust.  If you have millions to play with and don't mind the consequences – it's a fun play. 

Otherwise….no thanks.  LOL.  PCLN.  No play 4 me.

Hum….AAPL….hum….440 plz. Purdy plz with strawberries on top?

Brain scans Phil….done.

Dontcha think that is why the US and Japan have turned up the printing presses….to keep the EU up and let them die a slow, death with chemo…?

DIA July 152 puts for 20c.  The 151s are 10c, so a move is a'comin'.  Placing my bet.

Pharm / THLD – Good catch, thanks!

mrm – ur gonna be in Vegas this year…no ifs ands or buts….MisteR.

Phil:  What might add fuel to the fire is falling inflation expectations in the U.S. on a rising dollar.  I don't think inflation is "here", quite.  U.S. employment has risen over the last six months, while unemployment continues to rise in Peripheral Europe.  Germany, which has also slowed, seems to less keen on austerity these days, with China import cuts not helping,  If inflation were really threatening – despite centrals banks have cut rates to the limit — gold wouldn't be where it is, I wouldn't think.  Short story, stronger dollar, U.S. leads the world out of recession, go team!!  U.S. equities, on the other hand, I dunno.  So I bought Spain.

PCLN earnings: Phil/Pharm – LOL – do I take it that Phil is Pharm or Pharm is Phil. When will we three meet again !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A silver dollar says this will be the first time that PCLN stays bang where it is after earnings are announced. I will provide the humble pie.

I love this place.

Billy Idol coda: "there's nothing sure or pure in this world."

or Zero:  Dancing with Myself…eh, eh….  now it is in your head for the day.  UR welcome.

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