Courtesy of Mish.
Inquiring minds are digging into the latest Durable Goods Report by the Census Bureau.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $9.9 billion or 4.2 percent to $244.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 5.2 percent May increase and was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992. Excluding transportation, new orders increased slightly. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.0 percent. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, led the increase, $9.9 billion or 12.8 percent to $87.1 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $6.5 billion.
Easily Seen
Note how orders for aircraft can skew the overall numbers. A closer look at the "New Orders" components will show precisely what I mean.
New Orders
- Total +4.2%
- Excluding Transportation +0.0%
- Primary Metals -0.2%
- Fabricated Metals +0.1%
- Machinery +2.4%
- Computers and Electronic Products -2.6%
- Computers Related Products -2.1%
- Communications Equipment -11.7%
- Electrical Equipment -1.8%
- Transportation Equipment +12.8%
- Motor Vehicles and Parts +1.3%
- Non-Defense Aircraft and Parts +31.4%
- Defense Aircraft and Parts +18.7%
- Other Durable Goods +0.1%
One quick glance at new orders will give you the "easily seen" look at the durable goods numbers. Although such analysis is "easily seen" not many bother. Instead, many rely on the baseline reported number.
But what about the "not-so" easily seen? I am talking about constant revisions and the overall use of the report in general.
Revisions
Alan Hartley of Black Cypress Capital says Beware Revisions. …
