Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
The establishment survey showed a gain of 162,000 jobs.
The previous two months were revised lower. The employment change for May revised down by 19,000 (from +195,000 to +176,000), and the employment change for June revised down by 7,000 (from +195,000 to +188,000).
The unemployment rate dropped 0.2 to at 7.4%.
Explaining the Unemployment Rate Drop
- Employment rose by 227,000 of which 103,000 were part-time jobs.
- The Civilian Labor Force Declined by 37,000 even though population rose by 204,000.
- Those “Not in Labor Force” rose by 240,000.
- Participation Rate fell 0.1 to 63.4%, a mere 0.1 higher than the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.
July BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
- Payrolls +162,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment +227,000 – Household Survey
- US Unemployment -263,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work +19,000 – Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work +84,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.2 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment -0.3 to 14.0% – Household Survey
- Civilian Labor Force -37,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force -240,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate -0.1 at 63.4 – Household Survey
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
- In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 1,598,000
- Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,035,000 (an average of 170,000 a month)
- In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,745,000 to 11,514,000 (a drop of 1,231,000)
- Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 37.0%, an increase of 0.3 from last month. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
- 8,245,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,245,000. There has been no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.
June 2013 Jobs Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2013 Employment Report….
