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Thursday, February 19, 2026

Political Hot Potato; Germany Election Update: Snoozer or Big Surprise?

Courtesy of Mish.

In response to Surprise Awakening Awaits Merkel in September Election: No Stable Government, a close friend of mine pinged me with this comment “I think it will be a snoozer. It’s just a question of whether Steinmeier or Bruderle is vice-chancellor.”

72% Still Undecided

My friend displays quite a bit of confidence given the Vast Majority of Voters Still Undecided.

Via translation from Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ)…

Nearly three-quarters of voters have still not finalized who they want to vote in the Bundestag. Currently, black and yellow is on a par with the left-wing of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party.

72 percent of respondents stated that it is in principle possible for them to choose another, or even several other parties.

63 percent were of the view that nothing had been decided yet, although 64 percent expect an election victory of the CDU / CSU and Chancellor Angela Merkel.

AFD Update

Reader Bernd who lives in Germany is sticking with his story. He writes ….

Hello Mish

A few noteworthy things happened during the weekend.

1: Manfred Güllner of FORSA Institute is speculating that AfD will enter German Parliament. He believes that AfD might actually have a latent potential of 7-8%, which is significant.

2: Der Spiegel reports in a detailed article, that CDU is contemplating a second (renewed) election, if a coalition between CDU/CSU/SPD proves to be the only option after Sept 22nd. Under no circumstances does the party want to enter into such a “grand coalition”.

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