“Grand Coalition” Led by Merkel, Not Going to Happen; Expect a Shocker in Germany Election

Courtesy of Mish.

I am going to stick my neck out with a pair of predictions:

1. Forget about a “Grand Coalition” led by Merkel. It’s not going to happen.
2. The AfD anti-euro party will be in the next German parliament.

AfD had been polling around 2.5%. However, in the wake of Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) stating a need for more aid for Greece, one pollster has AfD at 4%.

Reader Bernd from Germany (not AfD party leader Bernd Lucke) says the 4% figure is significant. If a party shows four percent in polls, potential voters are drawn in because they do no longer fear their vote will be “lost”, due to the 5% threshold.

The election is on September 22. Yet 30 percent of voters are still undecided.

Coalition Possibilities

1. “Same” CDU/CSU + FDP
2. “Grand Coalition” CDU + SPD led by Merkel
3. “Grand Coalition” CDU + SPD led by someone else
4. “Red Green Coalition” SPD + Grüne (Greens) + DieLinke
5. “CDU/CSU+AfD Coalition” 

IF FDP can reach 5% of the vote, it is possible the same yellow-black coalition (CDU/CSU+FDP) rules as today. If FDP fails to reach 5%, then several alternate scenarios come into play:

There has been no talk at all of possibility number five above. Yet, if AfD can gather 6-7% (a number I think is possible), then there could be a coalition that includes AfD.

None of the “Grand Coalitions” seem stable.

Reader Bernd Comments

• FDP does not make (or barely makes) the 5% margin in two polls
• AfD is at 4% in at least one poll
• 35% of voters are undecided, so much movement to come
• Recent momentum has been away from CDU
• In the “undecided” voter column, Steinbrück leads 44% over Merkel 38%.
• A big problem for CDU and Merkel is to get their supporters to vote. CDU and Merkel followers are deeply convinced that Merkel has such a massive lead, that there is no cause for fear.
• The State elections in Bavaria are held one week before federal elections. In Bavaria, Steinbrück’s SPD will be trounced. Less than 20% of popular votes are a real possibility and might put a serious damper on the mood for the SPD in the last week of federal campaigning.
• Die Linke is stable. However, many “Die Linke” voters are probably hidden in the undecided block. I would give them more than 9%

After reading, analyzing and comparing statistics, figures and the whole nine yards, my latest prediction is as follows:
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