Latest Polls Not Looking Good For Merkel, 12 Days Before election

Courtesy of Mish.

The German election is on September 22. And with 12 days remaining, things do not look good for a Grand Coalition headed by Merkel.

Via translation, the latest INSA poll looks like this:

• CDU/CSU – 39%
• SPD – 28%
• Grüne (Greens) – 11%
• Die Linke (Left) – 8%
• FDP – 4%
• AfD – 3%
• Pirate – 3%

I believe AfD will make the 5% cut. I do not know if FDP will make the cut. If neither makes the cut, an unstable “Grand Coalition” is theoretically possible three ways.

Possible Coalitions if Neither AfD Nor FDP Get 5%

1. SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
2. CDU/CSU + SPD (“Grand Coalition” with Merkel)
3. CDU/CSU + SPD (“Grand Coalition” without Merkel)

Possible Coalitions if AfD, not FDP Gets 5%

1. CDU/CSU + AfD (with Merkel)
2. CDU/CSU + AfD (without Merkel)

A grand coalition including SPD is theoretically possible.

Possible Coalitions if FDP not AfD Gets 5%

1. CDU/CSU + FDP (with Merkel)

Again, a grand coalition with SPD is also theoretically possible.

There are numerous combinations if FDP and AfD both get 5%.

One More Merkel Snag…