CSU Receives 49% in Bavaria State Election; Assessing the National Impact for Merkel on September 22

Courtesy of Mish.

CSU soared to an absolute majority in the Bavaria state election. The results look like this +- 0.2% or so.

1. CSU: 48.7%
2. SPD: 20.5%
3. Freie Waehler: 8.7%
4. Die Grünen: 8.5%
5. FDP: 3.2%
6. Others: 10.4%

Majority for CSU

Freie Waehler is the Bavaria Eurosceptic party and  Die Grünen is the Green Party.

Inquiring minds may be wondering how 48.7% constitutes a majority. It does because majorities are based on the percentage in government, not the percentage of voters.

Recall that the threshold for participation is 5%.

For determining parliamentary majorities, CSU received over 50% of the votes that count (the first four groups above).

The National Election Outlook

Assessing FDP Chances of Making Parliament

If these results hold for the national elections on September 22, FDP may very well be out, as I have suggested on numerous occasion.

Assessing AfD Chances of Making Parliament

AdP did not run in the Bavaria election. However, the vote looks good for AfD because most of the Freie Waehler voters will likely support AfD in the national elections….