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October 21st, 2010 at 10:55 am
BSMP –
Perfectly fine. The timeframe for my outlook is 5 years for my FV estimate. I do a 5-year DCF. The way it works, though, is I have ranges of Buy, Hold, and Sell. Those ranges change as I readjust my FV estimate, which changes on earnings and major changes in the company. So, TSL, for example, moved into the Buy range below 27. I think at this level it is undervalued enough where it makes a strong Buy. Now, my FV estimate is in the high 30s. I don’t think TSL is going there right now, but it should be there eventually. The timeframe to sell is honestly up to you. For me, I am going to only hold for 3-4% because I’m a short term traded. I’m using longterm fundamentals to make midterm trades. I held TSL before from May-August from 16 to 28 for a great gain. I don’t think at 27 it has that capability. The companies that are well under their FV estimate are FTR and SPWRA. Those represent much better Buy and Hold candidates than TSL, which has already moved back into a Hold range. Hope that helps.
Jr –
Ah that stinks on IIIN because it dropped like a rock. AXP is holding up nicely.
Jean –
Yeah it is on the list. It is definitely a Buy and Hold for awhile. The stock is well under its FV estimate. They report on November 8. This report should really boost the company. How much are you up?