Establishment Survey: +148K Jobs, Household Survey: +133K Jobs, Unemployment Rate 7.2%

Courtesy of Mish.

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 148,000 jobs. July was revised lower, from +104,000 to +89,000. August was revised higher, from +169,000 to +193,000. The net effect was +9,000 more than previously reported.

This was the third straight month of revisions. The previous two revisions were significantly lower. Perhaps the BLS has numbers they are happy with now.

The unemployment rate dropped 0.1 to 7.2%. It’s the household survey that determines the unemployment rate, not the establishment survey. So let’s take a look at the factors.

Explaining the Unemployment Rate Drop

• Employment rose by 133,000
• Those in the labor force rose by 73,000
• The civilian population rose by 209,000.
• The Participation Rate (The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population) was flat at 63.3%, a low dating back to 1979.

Employment rose more than the labor force, so the unemployment rate declined.

September BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

• Payrolls +148,000 – Establishment Survey
• US Employment +133,000 – Household Survey
• US Unemployment -61,000 – Household Survey
• Involuntary Part-Time Work +15,000 – Household Survey
• Voluntary Part-Time Work -372,000 – Household Survey
• Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.1 to 7.2% – Household Survey
• U-6 unemployment -0.3 to 13.7% – Household Survey
• Civilian Labor Force +73,000 – Household Survey
• Not in Labor Force +136,000 – Household Survey
• Participation Rate +0.0 at 63.2 – Household Survey

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

• The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
• In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 1,893,000
• Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,429,000 (an average of 110,000 a month)
• In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,082,000 to 11,255,000 (a drop of 827,000)
• Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 36.9%, a decrease of 1.0 from last month.
• The mean duration of unemployment is 36.9 weeks, a decline of 0.1.

Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.

• 7,926,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,607,000. This is a volatile series.

September 2013 Jobs Report…