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2024
August 10th, 2010 at 11:00 am
Oxen Alert – Long Term Position Updates
I think it is time that we did a Longterm Portfolio Update. As of yesterday when I did my Portfolio Update, six out of the eight positions I had in the Long Term Portfolio were in the green. Let’s take a closer look at each position…
TSL – Nothing too new here for Trina. The company recently had its annual shareholder’s meeting. We are sitting up more than 30% with Trina, but I still think it has much more to go. The company is set to report its earnings on August 24. The solar industry has started to report earnings, and they have been very solid. Every solar company that has reported has beaten expectations.
Up 38%
GMCR – For as good as we have done with Trina, Green Mountain has hurt us so far. I am still confident that the company’s P/E ratio is much too high, and I am still confident the price of the stock will decline. The company had a strong earnings report, but I do not think it will adjust my yearly outlook. I have an operating income at $112 million for this year. The company most likely will exceed that amount. I have readjusted my DCF statement for a new operating income at $125 million, and a new fair value estimate for a bit over $16. I think we will DD our position soon.
Down 32%
CAAS – The company reported earnings very recently, and the company beat profit expectations. The company had disappointing forecasts that were a bit below expectations, but overall, things are pretty strong for China Automotive. The company had a small decline, but overall, things are looking good.
Up 3%
JWN – Nordstrom is one of our next reporting companies. The company does not have any significant new news, but they are expected to report earnings on Thursday. The company is expected to report earnings at 0.66 EPS versus 0.48 one year ago. We have not had any major retail earnings thus far, JWN will be one of the first. I am hoping for a nice earnings report to help justify our second loser.
Down 10%
JCI – Johnson Controls is one of our other major winners thus far. The company has not had too much more since their last earnings that actually had a small surprise loss, but they forecasted strongly. The company is looking strong to continue to grow as the American auto economy grows. We can expect good things moving forward from JCI.
Up 9%
PAYX – Paychex is one of our companies that does not report in the typical season. The company will report on September 20, 2010 its next quarterly earnings. Nothing too new is on the front for PAYX as well. As I originally stated, jobs is the most significant thing for PAYX. The unemployment rate’s small decline is a small but hopeful sign that PAYX will continue to see improvement.
Even
SPWRA – We are involved in SPWRA at 12.50. The company is the most efficient PV cell maker. Tonight is a big night for SPWRA. The company reports their earnings. They are expected to report earnings at 0.10 vs. EPS at 0.24 one year ago. The company also announced this morning that they are building a 15MW solar plant in Arizona. It is a great sign that the company is diversifying across the States.
Up 7%.
JACK – Our most recent position that we entered on Friday.
Good Investing!