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November 9th, 2007 at 1:59 am
K1, thanks for all the work you’ve done. I have one question if you don’t mind helping me looking. I’m looking at the 10K portfolio and trying to track down some of the trades. For instance there was a trade on Nov 1st into 10 LVS calls with a $130 strike. The portfolio says they were purchased for $410 and sold the next day for $6990. That helped boost the 10k portfolio a lot. The only problem I have is that I’ve looked all through Nov 1st trading day and can’t find anything about doubling down. In fact the only real mention I see is this:
“LVS – table game % is just bad luck, that’s no reason to sell. BUT – buying insane amounts of real estate and initiating construction projects at the top of a bubble in labor and materials is just plain stupid and there’s no quick recovery from that. Still $100 was my target and I think they’ll hold there, I regret not being more aggressive shorting in the $10KP but it wasn’t safe as I really thought Shelly would cook the books and we wouldn’t get such a huge sell-off so fast.”
and
“LVS – If you rolled down and rolled your caller down with us you’re in that trade for free so que sera sera today, it’s not something we want to put more money in and, if we can get $5+ on the Jan calls at the open we should just take it and set up a new play later. As to the naked puts in the $25KP – ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement (or despair in this case)!”
In the first it talks about shorting it, in the second “it’s not something we want to put more money in” So… Yet this trade counts for 60% of the 222% return.
Phil,
I would ask that it be a requirement for a trade to be posted in the 10K portfolio that it be reported in a comment. This would help give credibility to the portfolios. Even if the trade is reported soon after the fact.