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Saturday, May 4, 2024

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  1. k1

    Managing Implied Volatility – Crushes and Rushes

    Optrader: You are not worried of an IV crush on earnings day that will eat your profits on both sides? Wondering if it is a good time to establish a straddle/strangle , especially as IV is high because of Cramer’s pump. Would love to hear what you think.

    Optrader: I should add that I am not arguing about the tactic. Straddles/Strangles are one of my favorite kind of plays: no direction and any kind of big news is good for you: you only get overnight good surprises. But I like to start the positions in a low IV’s environment.

    Dragon: You are right. The risk/reward ratio has changed and this is why you usually cash out completely and then reestablish a strangle with the correct strike prices going into the event. IV crush is always a possibility but with historically volatility off earnings news in JCI, it is of a smaller probability than a volatile move.
    I think it gaps and goes higher after some consolidation thus the AUG esp when demand moves that IV in those calls again.

    Dragon: By reestablishing a new strangle you have better control of the risk capital movements with delta.

    Optrader: Well, you should even take a look at the Jan’s, where IV ATM is at 27% VS 70% for the July’s. It’s more expensive of course, but at least you won’t get crashed on IV drop. You could also buy the Jan’s strangle and sell the Jul’s against it to make it cheaper. Of course that would be a pure IV play, but you can always ratio it.



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