Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is starting to show some strength but without much enthusiasm. Although daily sentiment is painting higher lows and has a good uptrend line, it isn’t acting like it should when price breaks out to new highs. Thursday’s move came with a higher intensity of tweets (volume and scores), but the aggregated score for the day was only +10.


The move above 1530 on SPX at the first of March is more characteristic of confirmation of a break to new highs. It came with a print of +21 on the day of the break out signaling that market participants were heralding the move. This is in contrast to yesterday’s break out where many traders on Twitter were skeptical. Traders may be saving their belief in the rally for the all time intra-day highs just above at 1576. We’ll be watching for confirmation if a breakout occurs next week. We’ll post updates of sentiment on Twitter @DownsideHedge when price gets near the all time highs.

Smoothed sentiment is showing the beginnings of a confirming trend line. It has turned back up near the zero line and is now positive. This gives us more confidence that the market is continuing the uptrend and has the potential to move higher. We need to see smoothed sentiment continue to strengthen or the market could stall.

Twitter support and resistance levels widened this week. As the market dipped we saw downside calls for 1530 on SPX. This provides a second level of support if prices fall back through 1550. We also got renewed calls for 1600 once 1565 was surpassed. SPX is still within the trading range we mentioned last week of 1545 to 1576. We suspect any prices outside those levels will give us a good near term direction.

Twitter sector sentiment is warning of caution by market participants. The defensive sectors of Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples continue to show positive sentiment, while Financials, Technology, Basic Materials, and Industrials are negative. This is not a condition we would expect to see as the market is making new highs. Rallies led by defensive sectors are not generally good…
continue reading





Thailand falls over 6% last week….Impact S&P 500 in the near future?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Does it sound strange that Thailand’s performance could impact the S&P 500?  It does to me!

One of the top performing countries over the past few months is Thailand…until last week!  Thailand ETF’s (THD) rally took it up to a resistance line it has struggled with since last 2010.  After hitting the line last week is broke support and seller rushed in, pushing the ETF down over 6% on the week.

Oddly enough over the past two years, when THD was hitting its resistance line, the S&P 500 was hitting a very similar line too.  Past declines in THD and SPY have taken place around the same time. 

Could Thailand be a leading indicator for SPY?  It sure doesn’t seem like it should be at all.  Stay tuned to see further selling pressure in THD takes place and if SPY attempt to follow it!

-

-





What A Difference A Week Makes For Cyprus’ Schrodinger Deposits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following the Eurogroup press conference, the Cypriot Finance Minister Michael Sarris is currently explaining how:

  • *SARRIS SAYS TONIGHT IS GOOD NIGHT FOR CYPRUS, EURO ZONE and
  • *SARRIS SAYS UNCERTAINTY ON CYPRUS ECONOMY HAS ENDED    :BOCY CY

Having avoided the “disastrous exit” from the Euro. Should we believe him? Earlier in the week he exclaimed:

  • *SARRIS SAYS NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TO SAVINGS IN CYPRUS

And tonight we are told Bank of Cyprus uninsured ‘savers’ will face 40% haircuts and Laiki uninsured ‘savers’ as much as 100% (or total wipeout). It seems the lessons of Juncker are well studied in all the European Nations.

 

Though these are not the only contradictions this gentleman has made this week in his Junckerian manner…

On 3/20, we are told

  • *CYPRUS’S SARRIS: ‘WE WILL BE HERE [RUSSIA] UNTIL WE GET SOME AGREEMENT’
  • *RUSSIA FINANCING TALKS WILL LAST `AS LONG AS IT TAKES’: SARRIS

and then on 3/21

  • *SARRIS SAYS RUSSIANS LOOKING TO AID TO MAKE UP PART OF EU5.8 BN
  • *SARRIS SAYS HAS SEEN GREAT INTEREST FROM RUSSIA IN ENERGY
  • *SARRIS SAYS CAN’T SAY HOW MUCH RUSSIA CAN CONTRIBUTE

and then on 3/22

  • *CYPRUS DIDN’T GET REQUESTED RUSSIAN FINANCIAL SUPPORT: SARRIS

And even then the ‘levy’ – which would have needed a vote – was still there yesterday…

  • *CYPRUS’S SARRIS SAYS DEPOSIT LEVY REMAINS `ON THE TABLE’

but most notably – he explains that:

  • *SARRIS SAYS WAS WRONG TO PLACE DEPOSITS IN DOUBT

but now post major haircuts on depositors,

  • *SARRIS SAYS CYPRUS HAS ACHIEVED BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME  :BOCY CY




NaPoLeON BLoWNaPaRTe…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

NAPOLEON BLOWNAPARTE





Deal Reached, Damage Done

Courtesy of Mish.

One could tell from the rise in the futures this evening that a deal was reached, but conflicting reports had me wondering “what deal?”

The story now is that president Nicos Anastasiades threatened to resign if the terms were not acceptable (a nice strategy), and euro leaders agreed to a 10 billion euro bailout.

Reuters reports Revamped Cyprus deal to close bank, force losses.

Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders on Monday for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout that will shut down its second largest bank and inflict heavy losses on uninsured depositors, including wealthy Russians.

The agreement emerged after fraught negotiations between President Nicos Anastasiades and heads of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – hours before a deadline to avert a collapse of the banking system.

Deposits above 100,000 euros, which under EU law are not guaranteed, will be frozen and used to resolve debts, and Laiki will effectively be shuttered, with thousands of job losses.

An EU spokesman said no levy would be imposed on any deposits in Cypriot banks. A first attempt at a deal last week collapsed when the Cypriot parliament rejected a proposed levy on all deposits.

A senior source involved in the talks said Anastasiades had threatened to resign at one stage if he was pushed too far.

EU diplomats said the president, flown to Brussels in a private jet chartered by the European Commission, had fought to preserve the country’s business model as an offshore financial centre drawing huge sums from wealthy Russians and Britons.

The revised bailout plan many not require further parliamentary approval since the idea of a levy was dropped.

Damage Done

As I mentioned previously, haircuts on deposits above 100,000 euros are likely to be hammered by anywhere from 30% to 90%. I expect the mid-to-upper end of that range as noted in Bad Bank Losses 30-90%; Food Supplies Down to Two Days; Plenty of Fuel, Not enough Cash.

Regardless, the damage has been done. There should be and can be no trust. Anyone who keeps more money in Southern European banks than they need to pay immediate bills is a fool….



Continue Here





Eurogroup Press Conference – Live Webcast (And Full Eurogroup Statement)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It’s 2:30am, do you know where your deposits are? Tune in to see the Eurogroup explain how this is in the best interest of the Cypriot people, how the ‘deal’ illustrates the solidarity of the European people, and how the worst of the crisis is now behind us.

  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS CYPRIOT DEAL NEEDED BAIL-IN AT BOTH BIG BANKS
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS MUCH WORK REMAINS TO BE DONE :BOCY CY, CPB CY
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TIME LOST ON CYPRUS, SITUATION DIDN’T IMPROVE
  • *EU COMMISSION SAYS NO CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTE NEEDED: SCHAEUBLE
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TROIKA TO CONTACT RUSSIAN GOVT ON DEAL :BOCY CY

 

Live Webcast here…

Here it is – in all its glory. The full Eurogroup statement explaining how there is no need for the Cypriots to vote on this, how Laiki bank is totally liquidated with equity, debt, and uninsured depositors wiped out, and how they believe in some way that this will not end in a disorderly process…

  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS DEPOSITOR LOSSES STILL TO BE DETERMINED
  • *REHN SAYS EU TO PERFORM NEW CYPRUS DEBT-SUSTAINABILITY STUDY
  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS LAIKI BANK TO BE RESOLVED IMMEDIATELY

 

 

25 March 2013

Eurogroup Statement on Cyprus

The Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme. This agreement is supported by all euro area Member States as well as the three institutions. The Eurogroup fully supports the Cypriot people in these difficult circumstances.

The programme will address the exceptional challenges that Cyprus is facing and restore the viability of the financial sector, with the view of restoring sustainable growth and sound public finances over the coming years.

The Eurogroup welcomes the plans for restructuring the financial sector as specified in the annex.

These measures will form the basis for restoring the viability of the financial sector. In particular, they safeguard all deposits below EUR 100.000 in accordance with EU principles.

The programme will contain a decisive approach to addressing financial sector imbalances. There will be an appropriate downsizing of the financial sector, with the domestic banking sector reaching the EU average by 2018. In addition, the Cypriot authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to step up efforts in the areas of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms and privatisation.

The…
continue reading





Eurogroup Press Conference – Live Webcast

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It’s 2:30am, do you know where your deposits are? Tune in to see the Eurogroup explain how this is in the best interest of the Cypriot people, how the ‘deal’ illustrates the solidarity of the European people, and how the worst of the crisis is now behind us.

  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS CYPRIOT DEAL NEEDED BAIL-IN AT BOTH BIG BANKS
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS MUCH WORK REMAINS TO BE DONE :BOCY CY, CPB CY
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TIME LOST ON CYPRUS, SITUATION DIDN’T IMPROVE
  • *EU COMMISSION SAYS NO CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTE NEEDED: SCHAEUBLE
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TROIKA TO CONTACT RUSSIAN GOVT ON DEAL :BOCY CY

 

Live Webcast here…

Here it is – in all its glory. The full Eurogroup statement explaining how there is no need for the Cypriots to vote on this, how Laiki bank is totally liquidated with equity, debt, and uninsured depositors wiped out, and how they believe in some way that this will not end in a disorderly process…

  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS DEPOSITOR LOSSES STILL TO BE DETERMINED
  • *REHN SAYS EU TO PERFORM NEW CYPRUS DEBT-SUSTAINABILITY STUDY
  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS LAIKI BANK TO BE RESOLVED IMMEDIATELY

 

 

25 March 2013

Eurogroup Statement on Cyprus

The Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme. This agreement is supported by all euro area Member States as well as the three institutions. The Eurogroup fully supports the Cypriot people in these difficult circumstances.

The programme will address the exceptional challenges that Cyprus is facing and restore the viability of the financial sector, with the view of restoring sustainable growth and sound public finances over the coming years.

The Eurogroup welcomes the plans for restructuring the financial sector as specified in the annex.

These measures will form the basis for restoring the viability of the financial sector. In particular, they safeguard all deposits below EUR 100.000 in accordance with EU principles.

The programme will contain a decisive approach to addressing financial sector imbalances. There will be an appropriate downsizing of the financial sector, with the domestic banking sector reaching the EU average by 2018. In addition, the Cypriot authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to step up efforts in the areas of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms and privatisation.

The…
continue reading





“In The Best Interests Of The People…”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The European Union finance ministers have just agreed to the terms of the Cyprus-Troika deal (which we fear could mean 100% haircts for the uninsured Laiki depositors as unsecured claims in a Chapter-7-style liquidation). With democracy now a complete farce since not even Parliament will be allowed to vote on deposit confiscation as part of a financial sector bankruptcy deal, here is the island nation’s president explaining what just happened:

  • *ANASTASIADES SAYS AID DEAL IN BEST INTEREST OF CYPRIOT PEOPLE

 





“Cyprus Is The Homage Europe Pays For The Denial Of A Systemic Crisis”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Three months ago, Yanis Varoufakis explained Europe’s bogus growth pact and the papering over the cracks that was being done by the IMF and ECB, “The idea here is that, yet again, the Eurogroup-ECB-IMF alliance is not ready, politically, to reveal the truth to its various constituencies.” He was, obviously, correct. This weekend, in a brief BBC Radio interview (below), as Cyprus erupts and brings the European circus back into town, Varoufakis exclaims, “every bailout agreement, beginning with Greece’s in May 2010, seems less logical and more toxic than the previous one.” In three minutes, the Greek economist illustrates how the leaders are laying waste to the supposed pillars upon which the European Union was founded.

 

 

Via Yanis Varafoukis,

Here are some unedited thoughts I just shared with the BBC’s Radio 4 on Cyprus while we are all waiting for the new deal to shape up:

 

Cyprus’ banking sector must shrink. As did Ireland’s, the hard way. What is essential, as every Irishman and woman will tell you, is that the politicians do not load up the weaker citizen’s/taxpayers’ shoulders with enormous debts on behalf of bankers that refuse to wither.

 

Every bailout agreement, beginning with Greece’s in May 2010, seems less logical and more toxic than the previous one. The culmination was of course Cyprus this past week. Think about it: In one short week, Europe has managed to put in jeopardy:

 

  • The hitherto sacrosanct concept of state guaranteed deposit insurance
  • The monetary integrity of the Eurozone
  • The European Union’s single market principle according to which capital controls are a no-no.

If only the agreement reached at last June’s EU Summit to de-couple the banking crisis from the public debt crisis had been implemented, we would not be having this conversation now.

 

The Cyprus debacle is the homage that denial of the systematic nature of the euro crisis pays to a systemic crisis.

 

Cyprus parliamentarians offered the Eurozone a reprieve from the stupidest and most potentially destructive Eurogroup decision since this Crisis began three years ago. It now remains to be seen whether, scared by the sound of their own NO, they will now succumb to an even less rational deal.





Bad Bank Losses 30-90%; Food Supplies Down to Two Days; Plenty of Fuel, Not enough Cash

Courtesy of Mish.

Capital controls and a good-bank, bad-bank structure is what is now on the table. In spite of what may be agreed upon, I stated earlier today the losses will be bigger than currently perceived.

I am not the only one to come to that conclusion, Faz has some estimates in its report striking high cash outflows from Cyprus

Despite the closed banks and capital controls in the past week, more money flowed out from Cyprus than in previous weeks, according to payment transfers. Prior to the escalation of the crisis in Cyprus accruing on the payment system “Target liabilities of Cypriot central bank to the European Central Bank (ECB) had increased to a rate of approximately 100 to 200 million euros per day. In the past week, billions of dollars flew in spite of controls.

Withdrawals at ATMs have been limited to €260 per day but on Sunday the value was further reduced to €100 per day.

Cyprus lists accounts amounting to €30 billion in foreign currency, mainly dollars (86 percent) and pounds (6 percent). The investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated that this money belongs to foreigners, mainly Russians, Britons and Russians living in Latvia.

These holders of often very ample bank accounts now have a particular interest in getting money out of the country.

All accounts with less than 100,000 euros will land in the “good bank”. Other accounts will land in the “bad bank”. In the “bad bank” loss estimates range from 30 to 90 percent, depending on how quickly depositors try to withdraw money.

Supermarket Food Supplies Down to Two Days

In Cyprus, merchants demand cash, but suppliers demand cash only as well. With a shortage of cash, results are as expected: Cash Demands Impact Supermarket Shelves

SUPERMARKET shelves are in danger of emptying according to head of the supermarket union Andreas Hadjiadamou.

Supplies will only last two or three more days according to Hadjiadamou and there will be severe problems if a solution is not found and if banks remain closed.

According to deputy of the supermarket union, Nicos Athanasiou, problems had already started being noticed at certain supermarkets in Larnaca. “Most people are making purchases with a certain amount of care and caution, buying the basics,” he said. “Most


continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>