Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is starting to show some strength but without much enthusiasm. Although daily sentiment is painting higher lows and has a good uptrend line, it isn’t acting like it should when price breaks out to new highs. Thursday’s move came with a higher intensity of tweets (volume and scores), but the aggregated score for the day was only +10.


The move above 1530 on SPX at the first of March is more characteristic of confirmation of a break to new highs. It came with a print of +21 on the day of the break out signaling that market participants were heralding the move. This is in contrast to yesterday’s break out where many traders on Twitter were skeptical. Traders may be saving their belief in the rally for the all time intra-day highs just above at 1576. We’ll be watching for confirmation if a breakout occurs next week. We’ll post updates of sentiment on Twitter @DownsideHedge when price gets near the all time highs.

Smoothed sentiment is showing the beginnings of a confirming trend line. It has turned back up near the zero line and is now positive. This gives us more confidence that the market is continuing the uptrend and has the potential to move higher. We need to see smoothed sentiment continue to strengthen or the market could stall.

Twitter support and resistance levels widened this week. As the market dipped we saw downside calls for 1530 on SPX. This provides a second level of support if prices fall back through 1550. We also got renewed calls for 1600 once 1565 was surpassed. SPX is still within the trading range we mentioned last week of 1545 to 1576. We suspect any prices outside those levels will give us a good near term direction.

Twitter sector sentiment is warning of caution by market participants. The defensive sectors of Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples continue to show positive sentiment, while Financials, Technology, Basic Materials, and Industrials are negative. This is not a condition we would expect to see as the market is making new highs. Rallies led by defensive sectors are not generally good…
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Thailand falls over 6% last week….Impact S&P 500 in the near future?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Does it sound strange that Thailand’s performance could impact the S&P 500?  It does to me!

One of the top performing countries over the past few months is Thailand…until last week!  Thailand ETF’s (THD) rally took it up to a resistance line it has struggled with since last 2010.  After hitting the line last week is broke support and seller rushed in, pushing the ETF down over 6% on the week.

Oddly enough over the past two years, when THD was hitting its resistance line, the S&P 500 was hitting a very similar line too.  Past declines in THD and SPY have taken place around the same time. 

Could Thailand be a leading indicator for SPY?  It sure doesn’t seem like it should be at all.  Stay tuned to see further selling pressure in THD takes place and if SPY attempt to follow it!

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What A Difference A Week Makes For Cyprus’ Schrodinger Deposits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following the Eurogroup press conference, the Cypriot Finance Minister Michael Sarris is currently explaining how:

  • *SARRIS SAYS TONIGHT IS GOOD NIGHT FOR CYPRUS, EURO ZONE and
  • *SARRIS SAYS UNCERTAINTY ON CYPRUS ECONOMY HAS ENDED    :BOCY CY

Having avoided the “disastrous exit” from the Euro. Should we believe him? Earlier in the week he exclaimed:

  • *SARRIS SAYS NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TO SAVINGS IN CYPRUS

And tonight we are told Bank of Cyprus uninsured ‘savers’ will face 40% haircuts and Laiki uninsured ‘savers’ as much as 100% (or total wipeout). It seems the lessons of Juncker are well studied in all the European Nations.

 

Though these are not the only contradictions this gentleman has made this week in his Junckerian manner…

On 3/20, we are told

  • *CYPRUS’S SARRIS: ‘WE WILL BE HERE [RUSSIA] UNTIL WE GET SOME AGREEMENT’
  • *RUSSIA FINANCING TALKS WILL LAST `AS LONG AS IT TAKES’: SARRIS

and then on 3/21

  • *SARRIS SAYS RUSSIANS LOOKING TO AID TO MAKE UP PART OF EU5.8 BN
  • *SARRIS SAYS HAS SEEN GREAT INTEREST FROM RUSSIA IN ENERGY
  • *SARRIS SAYS CAN’T SAY HOW MUCH RUSSIA CAN CONTRIBUTE

and then on 3/22

  • *CYPRUS DIDN’T GET REQUESTED RUSSIAN FINANCIAL SUPPORT: SARRIS

And even then the ‘levy’ – which would have needed a vote – was still there yesterday…

  • *CYPRUS’S SARRIS SAYS DEPOSIT LEVY REMAINS `ON THE TABLE’

but most notably – he explains that:

  • *SARRIS SAYS WAS WRONG TO PLACE DEPOSITS IN DOUBT

but now post major haircuts on depositors,

  • *SARRIS SAYS CYPRUS HAS ACHIEVED BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME  :BOCY CY




NaPoLeON BLoWNaPaRTe…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

NAPOLEON BLOWNAPARTE





Deal Reached, Damage Done

Courtesy of Mish.

One could tell from the rise in the futures this evening that a deal was reached, but conflicting reports had me wondering “what deal?”

The story now is that president Nicos Anastasiades threatened to resign if the terms were not acceptable (a nice strategy), and euro leaders agreed to a 10 billion euro bailout.

Reuters reports Revamped Cyprus deal to close bank, force losses.

Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders on Monday for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout that will shut down its second largest bank and inflict heavy losses on uninsured depositors, including wealthy Russians.

The agreement emerged after fraught negotiations between President Nicos Anastasiades and heads of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – hours before a deadline to avert a collapse of the banking system.

Deposits above 100,000 euros, which under EU law are not guaranteed, will be frozen and used to resolve debts, and Laiki will effectively be shuttered, with thousands of job losses.

An EU spokesman said no levy would be imposed on any deposits in Cypriot banks. A first attempt at a deal last week collapsed when the Cypriot parliament rejected a proposed levy on all deposits.

A senior source involved in the talks said Anastasiades had threatened to resign at one stage if he was pushed too far.

EU diplomats said the president, flown to Brussels in a private jet chartered by the European Commission, had fought to preserve the country’s business model as an offshore financial centre drawing huge sums from wealthy Russians and Britons.

The revised bailout plan many not require further parliamentary approval since the idea of a levy was dropped.

Damage Done

As I mentioned previously, haircuts on deposits above 100,000 euros are likely to be hammered by anywhere from 30% to 90%. I expect the mid-to-upper end of that range as noted in Bad Bank Losses 30-90%; Food Supplies Down to Two Days; Plenty of Fuel, Not enough Cash.

Regardless, the damage has been done. There should be and can be no trust. Anyone who keeps more money in Southern European banks than they need to pay immediate bills is a fool….



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Eurogroup Press Conference – Live Webcast (And Full Eurogroup Statement)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It’s 2:30am, do you know where your deposits are? Tune in to see the Eurogroup explain how this is in the best interest of the Cypriot people, how the ‘deal’ illustrates the solidarity of the European people, and how the worst of the crisis is now behind us.

  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS CYPRIOT DEAL NEEDED BAIL-IN AT BOTH BIG BANKS
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS MUCH WORK REMAINS TO BE DONE :BOCY CY, CPB CY
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TIME LOST ON CYPRUS, SITUATION DIDN’T IMPROVE
  • *EU COMMISSION SAYS NO CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTE NEEDED: SCHAEUBLE
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TROIKA TO CONTACT RUSSIAN GOVT ON DEAL :BOCY CY

 

Live Webcast here…

Here it is – in all its glory. The full Eurogroup statement explaining how there is no need for the Cypriots to vote on this, how Laiki bank is totally liquidated with equity, debt, and uninsured depositors wiped out, and how they believe in some way that this will not end in a disorderly process…

  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS DEPOSITOR LOSSES STILL TO BE DETERMINED
  • *REHN SAYS EU TO PERFORM NEW CYPRUS DEBT-SUSTAINABILITY STUDY
  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS LAIKI BANK TO BE RESOLVED IMMEDIATELY

 

 

25 March 2013

Eurogroup Statement on Cyprus

The Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme. This agreement is supported by all euro area Member States as well as the three institutions. The Eurogroup fully supports the Cypriot people in these difficult circumstances.

The programme will address the exceptional challenges that Cyprus is facing and restore the viability of the financial sector, with the view of restoring sustainable growth and sound public finances over the coming years.

The Eurogroup welcomes the plans for restructuring the financial sector as specified in the annex.

These measures will form the basis for restoring the viability of the financial sector. In particular, they safeguard all deposits below EUR 100.000 in accordance with EU principles.

The programme will contain a decisive approach to addressing financial sector imbalances. There will be an appropriate downsizing of the financial sector, with the domestic banking sector reaching the EU average by 2018. In addition, the Cypriot authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to step up efforts in the areas of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms and privatisation.

The…
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Eurogroup Press Conference – Live Webcast

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It’s 2:30am, do you know where your deposits are? Tune in to see the Eurogroup explain how this is in the best interest of the Cypriot people, how the ‘deal’ illustrates the solidarity of the European people, and how the worst of the crisis is now behind us.

  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS CYPRIOT DEAL NEEDED BAIL-IN AT BOTH BIG BANKS
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS MUCH WORK REMAINS TO BE DONE :BOCY CY, CPB CY
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TIME LOST ON CYPRUS, SITUATION DIDN’T IMPROVE
  • *EU COMMISSION SAYS NO CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTE NEEDED: SCHAEUBLE
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS TROIKA TO CONTACT RUSSIAN GOVT ON DEAL :BOCY CY

 

Live Webcast here…

Here it is – in all its glory. The full Eurogroup statement explaining how there is no need for the Cypriots to vote on this, how Laiki bank is totally liquidated with equity, debt, and uninsured depositors wiped out, and how they believe in some way that this will not end in a disorderly process…

  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS DEPOSITOR LOSSES STILL TO BE DETERMINED
  • *REHN SAYS EU TO PERFORM NEW CYPRUS DEBT-SUSTAINABILITY STUDY
  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS LAIKI BANK TO BE RESOLVED IMMEDIATELY

 

 

25 March 2013

Eurogroup Statement on Cyprus

The Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme. This agreement is supported by all euro area Member States as well as the three institutions. The Eurogroup fully supports the Cypriot people in these difficult circumstances.

The programme will address the exceptional challenges that Cyprus is facing and restore the viability of the financial sector, with the view of restoring sustainable growth and sound public finances over the coming years.

The Eurogroup welcomes the plans for restructuring the financial sector as specified in the annex.

These measures will form the basis for restoring the viability of the financial sector. In particular, they safeguard all deposits below EUR 100.000 in accordance with EU principles.

The programme will contain a decisive approach to addressing financial sector imbalances. There will be an appropriate downsizing of the financial sector, with the domestic banking sector reaching the EU average by 2018. In addition, the Cypriot authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to step up efforts in the areas of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms and privatisation.

The…
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“In The Best Interests Of The People…”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The European Union finance ministers have just agreed to the terms of the Cyprus-Troika deal (which we fear could mean 100% haircts for the uninsured Laiki depositors as unsecured claims in a Chapter-7-style liquidation). With democracy now a complete farce since not even Parliament will be allowed to vote on deposit confiscation as part of a financial sector bankruptcy deal, here is the island nation’s president explaining what just happened:

  • *ANASTASIADES SAYS AID DEAL IN BEST INTEREST OF CYPRIOT PEOPLE

 





“Cyprus Is The Homage Europe Pays For The Denial Of A Systemic Crisis”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Three months ago, Yanis Varoufakis explained Europe’s bogus growth pact and the papering over the cracks that was being done by the IMF and ECB, “The idea here is that, yet again, the Eurogroup-ECB-IMF alliance is not ready, politically, to reveal the truth to its various constituencies.” He was, obviously, correct. This weekend, in a brief BBC Radio interview (below), as Cyprus erupts and brings the European circus back into town, Varoufakis exclaims, “every bailout agreement, beginning with Greece’s in May 2010, seems less logical and more toxic than the previous one.” In three minutes, the Greek economist illustrates how the leaders are laying waste to the supposed pillars upon which the European Union was founded.

 

 

Via Yanis Varafoukis,

Here are some unedited thoughts I just shared with the BBC’s Radio 4 on Cyprus while we are all waiting for the new deal to shape up:

 

Cyprus’ banking sector must shrink. As did Ireland’s, the hard way. What is essential, as every Irishman and woman will tell you, is that the politicians do not load up the weaker citizen’s/taxpayers’ shoulders with enormous debts on behalf of bankers that refuse to wither.

 

Every bailout agreement, beginning with Greece’s in May 2010, seems less logical and more toxic than the previous one. The culmination was of course Cyprus this past week. Think about it: In one short week, Europe has managed to put in jeopardy:

 

  • The hitherto sacrosanct concept of state guaranteed deposit insurance
  • The monetary integrity of the Eurozone
  • The European Union’s single market principle according to which capital controls are a no-no.

If only the agreement reached at last June’s EU Summit to de-couple the banking crisis from the public debt crisis had been implemented, we would not be having this conversation now.

 

The Cyprus debacle is the homage that denial of the systematic nature of the euro crisis pays to a systemic crisis.

 

Cyprus parliamentarians offered the Eurozone a reprieve from the stupidest and most potentially destructive Eurogroup decision since this Crisis began three years ago. It now remains to be seen whether, scared by the sound of their own NO, they will now succumb to an even less rational deal.





Bad Bank Losses 30-90%; Food Supplies Down to Two Days; Plenty of Fuel, Not enough Cash

Courtesy of Mish.

Capital controls and a good-bank, bad-bank structure is what is now on the table. In spite of what may be agreed upon, I stated earlier today the losses will be bigger than currently perceived.

I am not the only one to come to that conclusion, Faz has some estimates in its report striking high cash outflows from Cyprus

Despite the closed banks and capital controls in the past week, more money flowed out from Cyprus than in previous weeks, according to payment transfers. Prior to the escalation of the crisis in Cyprus accruing on the payment system “Target liabilities of Cypriot central bank to the European Central Bank (ECB) had increased to a rate of approximately 100 to 200 million euros per day. In the past week, billions of dollars flew in spite of controls.

Withdrawals at ATMs have been limited to €260 per day but on Sunday the value was further reduced to €100 per day.

Cyprus lists accounts amounting to €30 billion in foreign currency, mainly dollars (86 percent) and pounds (6 percent). The investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated that this money belongs to foreigners, mainly Russians, Britons and Russians living in Latvia.

These holders of often very ample bank accounts now have a particular interest in getting money out of the country.

All accounts with less than 100,000 euros will land in the “good bank”. Other accounts will land in the “bad bank”. In the “bad bank” loss estimates range from 30 to 90 percent, depending on how quickly depositors try to withdraw money.

Supermarket Food Supplies Down to Two Days

In Cyprus, merchants demand cash, but suppliers demand cash only as well. With a shortage of cash, results are as expected: Cash Demands Impact Supermarket Shelves

SUPERMARKET shelves are in danger of emptying according to head of the supermarket union Andreas Hadjiadamou.

Supplies will only last two or three more days according to Hadjiadamou and there will be severe problems if a solution is not found and if banks remain closed.

According to deputy of the supermarket union, Nicos Athanasiou, problems had already started being noticed at certain supermarkets in Larnaca. “Most people are making purchases with a certain amount of care and caution, buying the basics,” he said. “Most


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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