Archive for 2013

Shanghai McDonalds Slashes McNuggets Price By Nearly Half As Birdflu Fears Drive Away Buyers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

How do you know when the people “just say no” to chicken over rampant bird flu concerns? When even McDonalds (whose ad campaign for the past decade “I am loving it” continues to be an anagram for “ailing vomit“) is forced to slash chicken-related prices, in this case the 20 piece McNuggets, from CNY36 to CNY20. Pretty soon not even giving away the McMystery meat will clear out the shelves of all chicken-related fast food first in Shanghai and soon elsewhere in China. Finally, we dread to imagine the horrors that will befall Yum (read China KFC sales), now that after so much pain, the fast-food chain had finally reported a modest bounce in Chinese sales. So much for that.

h/t Rob Schmitz





Swing trading portfolio – week of April 8th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.





The 8 United States Of A New Monetary America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Do we need 50 states? With the corporatocracy increasingly looking to cut costs, wouldn’t it make more sense to right-size the number of ‘regional’ centers of democracy? With an increasingly Federally dominated US, perhaps 50 disparate decision-makers is too many. It turns out, that based on some wonderfully complex math (spatially embedded multi-scale interaction networks) and data from wheresgeorge.com, the United States Of America is more ‘optimal’ from a monetary and mobility-sense if it were managed around these 8 regions. Theoretical physicist Dirk Brockmann says the borders of the United States are out of date, and as Fast Company notes, “no longer correlate with our behavior.” By combining network theory with the travels of our dollar bills, the ‘real’ effective boundaries in a new USA are far simpler, reflecting where money ‘stays’ as opposed to more arbitrary state boundaries.

 

Tracking the dollars and network theory does the rest…

 

Where’s George? Anywhere, but mostly within the confines of the “blue borders”

Finally, George-to-George tracking can be seen best in his chart of “multi-scale human mobility” showing the short and long-range connectivity patterns when it comes to the physical distance travelled by actual US Federal Reserve notes, which according to Brockmann represents “proxy for human mobility.”

and the full paper behind the creation of the new 8 super-states

 





EU Warns Portugal on Austerity Measures; Portugal Faces Fresh Spending Cuts; Second Bailout Coming Up

Courtesy of Mish.

As expected, Brussels rejected the Inane Plan “B” Measure to Pay Workers in T-Bills following a Portuguese court ruling that certain austerity measures are unconstitutional.

Reuters reports Portugal must stick to agreed budget targets to get loan extension.

And so Portugal faces fresh cuts to spending.

Portugal’s prime minister says the government will have to cut spending on health, education and social security to keep the country’s €78bn bailout programme on track.

Mr Passos Coelho said he had no alternative after the court decision but to make extra spending cuts that would have a significant impact on the welfare state. The budgets of state-owned companies would also be cut, he said but the premier ruled out more tax rises on top of record increases introduced in January.

“I have ordered ministries to cut expenditure to compensate for the effects of the court decision,” he said.

Mr Passos Coelho also faces a difficult task to convince international lenders that new spending cuts will keep deficit-reduction plans on target.

The decision by Mr Passos to cut spending on the welfare state is likely to intensify opposition pressure on the government to resign, potentially opening the way to an early general election.

“We have to do everything possible to avoid a second bailout,” the prime minister said.

Read that last line carefully. It is an admission Portugal is in need of a second bailout. One is coming up.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  



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Nikkei 63,000,000 And Other Flashbacks: The Complete Dylan Grice Japan Series

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Confused by the day to day happenings in the land of the rising sun, and liquidity tsunami? Don’t be, instead read the following series of papers (pdf) by former SocGen strategist Dylan Grice who predicted everything that is currently happening nearly three years ago. The titles of the enclsed five pieces are self-explanatory especially in light of recent events: “A global fiasco is brewing in Japan”, “More on Japan’s brewing fiasco, and some musings on recent pushback”, “Fooled by anecdotes: Japan’s coming inflation, JGB toxicity and what to do”, “Nikkei 63,000,000? A cheap way to buy Japanese inflation risk” and finally “Buy Japan, and prepare to buy with both hands.” Oh, and spoiler alert…

…Grice doesn’t see a “Hollywood ending” to what is about to happen in Japan.





Stock World Weekly: Apr. 7, 2013

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European Commission ‘Threatens’ Portugal – Get Your Constitutional Court In Line

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It seems, despite the constant “it’s all fixed” banter, that Portugal’s Constitutional Court decision that the Troika-imposed austerity is unconstitutional (as we discussed in detail here and here) has a few of the ‘elites’ nervous. And so, late on a Sunday night European time, they launch a press release that is about as passively aggressive as they come, any departure from the program’s objectives, or their re-negotiation, would in fact neutralize the efforts already made and achieved by the Portuguese citizens, namely the growing investor confidence in Portugal, and prolong the difficulties from the adjustment… it is a precondition for a decision on the lengthening of the maturities of the financial assistance to Portugal.” In other words, get your constitutional court in line or the OMT ‘promise’ get’s it! Perhaps that explains why, unlike Spain and Italy who rallied in the last few days, Portugal’s bond spreads are at the widest of 2013 (70bps off the tights of the year).

 

 

Statement by the European Commission on Portugal

The European Commission welcomes that, following the decision of the Portuguese Constitutional Court on the 2013 state budget, the Portuguese Government has confirmed its commitment to the adjustment programme, including its fiscal targets and timeline. Any departure from the programme’s objectives, or their re-negotiation, would in fact neutralise the efforts already made and achieved by the Portuguese citizens, namely the growing investor confidence in Portugal, and prolong the difficulties from the adjustment.

 

The Commission therefore trusts that the Portuguese Government will swiftly identify the measures necessary to adapt the 2013 budget in a way that respects the revised fiscal target as requested by the Portuguese Government and supported by the Troika in the 7th review of the programme.

 

Continued and determined implementation of the programme offers the best way to restore sustainable economic growth and to improve employment opportunities in Portugal. At the same time, it is a precondition for a decision on the lengthening of the maturities of the financial assistance to Portugal, which would facilitate Portugal’s return to the financial markets and the attainment of the programme’s objectives. The Commission supports that such a decision be taken soon.

 

The Commission will continue to work constructively with the Portuguese authorities


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30,000 Greek Households Lose Electricity Each Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Since the Greek government enacted the remarkable law that property taxes will be enforced via the electricity providers in the beleaguered country, an incredible 30,000 households per month have seen their power supply cut off. Ekathimerini reports that some 700,000 customers have now had their debts restructured (with payment plans) as part of the billing process; but what is perhaps incredible is that while the State has specifically banned ‘disconnection’ for not paying the property charges, the utility’s computer system is unable to distinguish if payment is for electricity or property tax. There are apparently workarounds involving deposits for tax debts but the situation is set to deteriorate further this year due to the increase in electricity rates and expected further reductions in household incomes.

 

Via ekathimerini,

About 1,000 electricity connections are cut every day in Greece as Public Power Corporation customers are increasingly unable to pay their power bills on time, while accumulated debts to the country’s electricity giant stood at more than 1.3 billion euros at the end of 2012. This is not only due to the economic crisis that has eaten into household incomes, but also to the special property tax paid via power bills.

 

PPC data show that some 700,000 customers had had their debts rearranged with new payment plans by the end of last year, up from 400,000 at the end of 2011. The situation is set to deteriorate this year due to the increase in PPC rates and expected further reductions in household incomes.

 

 

There is, however, a particular problem with the special property tax. While the Council of State has banned the disconnection of houses for not paying the property charge through the PPC bill, if customers do pay for their electricity, PPC’s software cannot distinguish between payment for the property tax and that for electricity. As a result, the corporation cannot tell whether consumers have paid toward their power bill or just a part of their property tax unless they have paid the full amount.

 

 

PPC says that this problem can be overcome by the taxpayers visiting the tax offices, where they can apply to have their property levy paid separately to the tax authority, which involves the payment of a


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Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Search for Bargains?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

As the market averages reach new highs, there is a sharp divergence in advice. While we digest last week’s economic news and wait for earnings reports, I expect a new theme this week.

How should you react to new market highs and first-quarter trends in various sectors? Should you reduce exposure, expecting a sharp correction? Or should you shop for bargains among sectors and stocks that have lagged in performance?

As he does so often, Eddy Elfenbein provides a savvy summary of recent events and focuses on the key question:

“Let me give you the briefest summation of Wall Street over the last six months: Investors worry about something that’s unlikely to happen, the financial media amplifies said worry, calming voices are ignored, the markets trends downward, the financial media then calls for civility and public-spiritedness to address the needless worry they just promoted, incredibly the world doesn’t end, the worries fade away, volatility falls and the market quietly rallies.

We’ve repeated this dance so many times I’m beginning to lose count. There was the Fiscal Cliff, the debt ceiling (remember the $1-trillion coin), the elections in Italy, the fiasco in Cyprus and the Great Rotation out of bonds.”

Eddy takes note of the recent market shift into defensive stocks and away from gold and risk. He is expecting more of the same. (His article also includes some great stock ideas).

Michael Santoli writes about the “grandma stocks” and how investors have moved into stocks that look like bonds.

There are at least three choices:

  1. Sell in May (a topic we covered last week, Signs of another Economic Soft Patch?).
  2. Be defensive with grandma stocks and bonds.
  3. Look for bargains in lagging sectors.

There are advocates for each. I have some thoughts which I’ll report in the conclusion. First, let us do our regular update of last week’s news and data.

Background on “Weighing the Week Ahead”

There are many good lists of upcoming events. One source I regularly follow is the weekly calendar from Investing.com. For best results you need to select the date range from the calendar displayed on the site. You will be rewarded with a comprehensive list of data and events from all over the world. It takes a little practice, but it is worth it.…
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Japanese Finance Ministry Warns Surge In JGB Volatility May Lead To A Sharp Bond Selloff

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If Friday’s session is any indication of what to expect in a few minutes when JGB trading resumes, we are about to have a doozy of a session on our hands (especially with Interactive Brokers already announcing all intraday margins on all Japanese products for Monday trading have been lifted). As a reminder, the 10Y JGB suffered only its second most volatile trading day ever this past Friday when the yield plunged by half (!) to 0.30%, then doubled in a matter of minutes to 0.60% – a 13 sigma move - and the bond trading session was interrupted by two trading halts when it seemed for a minute that the BOJ may lose all control of the bond market. Well, judging by the absolutely ridiculous moves in the USDJPY as of this moment, with the pair soaring 70 pips in a matter of seconds, we are about to have precisely the kind of insanely volatile session that the Japanese Finance Ministry itself warned may lead to a wholesale selloff in JGBs, offsetting even the New Normal Mrs Watanabe kneejerk which is to merely frontrun the BOJ in buying JGBs. Why? Because with implied vol exploding, VaR-driven models will tell banks to just dump bonds as they have become too volatile to hold on their books. The problem is that with trillions and trillions of JGBs held by banks, insurance companies and pension firms, there just not may be anyone out there to buy them.

This is from the October 26, 2012 minutes of the Meeting of JGB market special participants, just as the insanity known as Abenomics was being first revealed to the world.

Another thing to be noted here is the fact that as a risk management method, many domestic financial institutions adopt the VaR approach, which is designed to calculate the amount at risk on the basis of volatility. Under the present circumstances, we can determine the amount at risk to be small because of not great volatility. But if the volatility moves up or down in the order of 0.5% to 1.5%, it will increase the amount at risk, forcing domestic financial institutions to reduce their JGB holdings.

0.5% or 1.5%? Try ten times that. The chart below shows…
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Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Slides As Trade Tensions Escalate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

S&P futures were lower on Wednesday as investors sought safety in bonds, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in muted trade amid renewed worries over the U.S.-China spat after reports Washington is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products, expanding the US crackdown on China beyond Huawei to include world leaders in video surveillance. The dollar and 10Y yield were unchanged ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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