Archive for 2013

Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland
    September 27th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
    I see DEBT, people.







Comment by spiyer

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  1. spiyer
    September 1st, 2011 at 10:59 am
    Is good to load up on tza







Thousands Of Companies Around The World Are Revealing The Truth About The Global Economy

LIVE: Thousands Of Companies Around The World Are Revealing The Truth About The Global Economy

Courtesy of Sam Ro, Business Insider 

HEADS UP: The world's biggest economies are publishing their May manufacturing PMI reports. This is our scorecard.

On Friday, we learned that the official reading unexpectedly climbed to 50.8 in May

However, China's unofficial HSBC PMI fell to 49.6 from 50.4 a month ago.

PMI

At the beginning of each month, Markit, HSBC, RBC, JP Morgan, and several other major data gathering institutions publish the latest local readings of the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for countries around the world.

PMI is one of the best leading indicators of the economy. 

Each reading is based on surveys of hundreds of companies. Read more about it at Markit.

These are not the most closely followed data points. However, the power of the insights is unparalleled. Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the worldBlackRock's Russ Koesterich thinks it's one of the most underrated indicators.

——————————————————————————————————————————-

Click here to refresh this page for the latest updates to our scorecard >

May 31 (All Times ET)

June 2, 3

  • 7:30 p.m. Australia: AiG Manufacturing PMI —43.8, up from 36.7
  • 8 p.m. South Korea: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 51.1, down from 52.6
  • 9:45 p.m. China: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 49.6, down from 50.4
  • 10 p.m. Taiwan: HSBC Manufacturing PMI —47.1, down from 50.7
  • 10 p.m. Vietnam: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 48.8, down from 51.0
  • 11 p.m. Indonesia: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 51.7
  • 1 a.m. India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 51.0
  • 1 a.m. Russia: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 50.6
  • 2 a.m. Ireland: NCB Manufacturing PMI — 48.0
  • 3 a.m. Turkey: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 51.3
  • 3 a.m. Poland: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 46.9
  • 3 a.m. Netherlands: NEVI Manufacturing PMI — 48.2
  • 3:15 a.m. Spain: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 44.7
  • 3:45 a.m. Italy: Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI — 45.5
  • 3:50 a.m. France: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 44.4
  • 3:55 a.m. Germany: Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI — 48.1
  • 4 a.m. Greece: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 45.0
  • 4 a.m. Eurozone: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 46.7
  • 4:30 a.m. U.K.: Markit / CIPS Manufacturing PMI— 49.8
  • 9 a.m. U.S.: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 52.1
  • 9 a.m. Brazil: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 50.8
  • 9:30 a.m. Canada: RBC Manufacturing PMI — 50.1
  • 10 a.m. U.S.: ISM Manufacturing — 50.7
  • 10:30 a.m. Mexico: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 51.7
  • 11 a.m. Global: JPMorgan Manufacturing PMI — 50.5

Click here to refresh this page for the latest updates to our scorecard >

Picture credit: REUTERS/NASA





Comment by OptionSage

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  1. OptionSage
    July 24th, 2008 at 11:39 am
    tlsvet, there’s a good story I saw Seth Klarman of Baupost quote recently about the best way to ride a horse is get up and there and practice rather than read a book about how to do it.  It does take time for us all but it’s definitely worth when you stick with it.  Persistence is the key!







Comment by tlsvet

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  1. tlsvet
    July 23rd, 2008 at 12:08 pm
    Nicely put, this virus.

    I like to think that I have learned my lessons, at least partially. I’m still pretty new to options trading (less than a year) and trading in general (a bit more than a year), so I console myself, that I had to pay some tuition to the market for my losses :)

    The me from 6 months ago would have jumped in with both feet, regardless of other conditions. But not this time… I admit I’m bit sorry that right now I don’t have more time for trading (week of meeting followed by business trip week, which is followed by another week of meetings (this one), followed by vacation week, followed by another business trip week is far from ideal for following the market), but I’m resisting the temptation. If the really turns up, there will be months to trade it (it seems obvious, but before I made my losses I was in constant "fear" of losing opportunities).

    I guess, that was yet another confirmation (for me) that no amount of reading and simulated trading can replace the real experience…







Obamacare To Double Cost Of Insurance For Average Californian

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Last week, the state of California claimed that its version of Obamacare’s health insurance exchange would actually reduce premiums. But, as Forbes reports, the data that the executive director of California's 'exchange' released tells a different story: Obamacare, in fact, will increase individual-market premiums in California by as much as 146 percent. The exuberance that Peter Lee exclaimed over the 'savings' is a misleading comparison. He was comparing apples – the plans that Californians buy today for themselves in a robust individual market-and oranges – the highly regulated plans that small employers purchase for their workers as a group. If you're a 25 year old male non-smoker, buying insurance for yourself, the cheapest plan on Obamacare’s exchanges is the catastrophic plan, which costs an average of $184 a month; but in 2013, on eHealthInsurance.com, Forbes explains, the median cost of the five cheapest plans was only $92. In other words, for the typical 25-year-old male non-smoking Californian, Obamacare will drive premiums up by between 100 and 123 percent. The desperate spin of the PR disaster is incredible as talk of a 'rate shock' is now very prescient, "these extraordinary increases are up to 15 times faster than inflation and threaten to make health care unaffordable for hundreds of thousands of Californians."

 

Via Forbes,

Last week, the state of California claimed that its version of Obamacare’s health insurance exchange would actually reduce premiums. “These rates are way below the worst-case gloom-and-doom scenarios we have heard,” boasted Peter Lee, executive director of the California exchange. But the data that Lee released tells a different story: Obamacare, in fact, will increase individual-market premiums in California by as much as 146 percent.

“The rates submitted to Covered California for the 2014 individual market,” the state said in a press release, “ranged from two percent above to 29 percent below the 2013 average premium for small employer plans in California’s most populous regions.”

That’s the sentence that led to all of the triumphant commentary from the left. “This is a home run for consumers in every region of California,” exulted Peter Lee.

Except that Lee was making a misleading comparison. He was comparing apples—the plans that Californians buy today for themselves in a robust individual market—and oranges—the highly regulated plans


continue reading





SchrodinChina Expanding And Contracting At Same Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Flash PMI had already ‘warned’ of a contractionary print but the final May HSBC Manufacturing PMI is now the lowest in a year at 49.2. The last two months have seen this measure of the Chinese economy plunge at its fastest rate since March 2011. Of course the ‘official’ data still remains a handsome 50.8 (not contracting at all) but the underlying data of the HSBC/Markit index is just as awful with little in the silver-lining camp to save the day (or night). Employment dropped, new export orders and total orders fell, purchasing activity fell, with only a meager rise in output saving the index from a more precipitous decline. Output prices also plunged (but input prices dropped on the back of cheaper raw materials – particularly base metals) and inventories rose (in a lack of demand manner as opposed to ‘if we build it’ perspective according to HSBC). So, once again, just as in Q1 2012 (before the reality swoon) China is both expanding and contracting…

 





“Markets Under The Spell Of Monetary Easing” Bank Of International Settlements Finds… Same As “Then”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Then….

Ben Bernanke 7/1/2005, CNBC interview:

INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? We have so many economists coming on our air saying ‘Oh, this is a bubble, and it’s going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.’ Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?

 

BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

Ben Bernanke 10/20/05 Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress

House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals.

Ben Bernanke  3/28/07 – Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress

Although the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market has created severe financial problems for many individuals and families, the implications of these developments for the housing market as a whole are less clear…At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.

Ben Bernanke 5/17/07 – Remarks before the Federal Reserve Board of Chicago

…we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well.

Ben Bernanke 1/10/08 – Response to a Question after Speech in Washington, D.C.

The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a


continue reading





Japanese Stocks Down Over 2% At Open; Nikkei 16% Off Highs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite a pre-open dump in JPY to try and spark some momentum, things are not going according to Abe’s wealth-creation plan in Japan right now. The Nikkei 225 is down over 300 points (over 16% from its highs a week ago) and the broader-based TOPIX is down over 2.1% from Friday’s close (down 14% from its highs). Topix Bank and Real Estates indices continue to suffer from high-beta-itis (-3%) but the Oil & Gas sector is now being dragged into the mess too (-3.2%). JGBs are rallying only modestly (yields lower by 1-2bps) in light of this decent selloff in stocks. JPY is now at its highs of the day testing 100.4 and JGB implied volatility is on the rise once again. All things considered… not good.

The broader TOPIX index is down over 14% fropm its recent highs led by Banks and Real Estate (and Oil & Gas today)…

 

But the more tech-heavy Nikkei 225 is down over 16% and suffering worse today…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





When They Do The QE Stomp

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Originally posted May 22, 2013.

The selloff in Treasuries today reminded me of a great song from my childhood.

I just changed the words a little.

Traders on Wall Street get some quick feet
When they do the QE stomp.
Really somethin when the yields start jumpin
When they do the QE stomp.
Whoa oh!

It started in Congress
With a Bernanke show
But he gave a wrong answer
Then the yields did blow.

They started sellin.
Oh, what a sight to see!

The yields are jumpin and the banks are dumpin
When they do the QE stomp.
Really somethin when the yields start jumpin
When they do the QE stomp.

It gets that panic feel.
You know you know it’s real.
You better sell.
You know it well.

If you decide to wait.
Then it will be too late.
Oh my.
Oh why oh why.
Ohhhh whyyy?

Traders on Wall Street get some quick feet
When they do the QE stomp.
Really somethin when the yields start jumpin
When they do the QE stomp.
Whoa oh!

If you don’t sell it now
You’ll get hit with a pow
And your cash will be all gone
All-l-l-l-l goo-o-ne!

The yields are jumpin and the banks are dumpin
When they do the QE stomp.
Really somethin when the yields start jumpin
When they do the QE stomp.

Whoa whoa

Repeat and fade.

Actually, the banks have been dancing out the back door for the last 10 months.

Bank Holdings of Treasuries and Agencies - Click to enlarge

Bank Holdings of Treasuries and Agencies – Click to enlarge

 

Get regular updates the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central banks in the US market, in the Fed Report in the Professional Edition, Money Liquidity, and Real Estate Package. Click this link to try WSE's Professional Edition risk free for 30 days!

Copyright © 2012 The Wall Street Examiner. All Rights Reserved. The above may be reposted with attribution and a prominent link to the Wall Street Examiner.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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