Archive for 2013

Swing trading portfolio – week of June 24th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.





David Stockman’s Non-Recovery Part 5: Peak Debt And The Wages Of Keynesian Sin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In the final section of this five-part series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4) on the dismal reality behind the non-recovery, David Stockman explains what lies ahead. He explains in his new book ‘The Great Deformation’, that the mainstream notion that there is a choice between fiscal austerity and fiscal stimulus is wishful thinking. It does not recognize that owing to the triumph of crony capitalism and printing-press money America has become a failed state fiscally. What lies ahead is a continuous, mad-cap cycling back and forth – virtually on an odd-even day basis – between deficit cutting and fiscal stimulus to the GDP. As Stockman notes, the proximate cause of this recession waiting to happen is the federal government’s unfolding encounter with Peak Debt. The latter is not a magical statistical point such as a federal debt ratio of 100 percent of GDP, but a condition of permanent crisis – “no viable economy can survive on chronic fiscal deficits nor can it fail to save at a sufficient rate to fund a healthy level of investment in productive capital assets. The blithe assumption to the contrary which animates current policy rests on self-serving clichés such as “deficits don’t matter” and the Chinese savings glut.” So the American economy faces a long twilight of no growth, rising taxes, and brutally intensifying fiscal conflict. These are the wages of five decades of Keynesian sin – the price of abandoning financial discipline.

 

 

Via David Stockman’s book ‘The Great Deformation’,

The proximate cause of this recession waiting to happen is the federal government’s unfolding encounter with Peak Debt. The latter is not a magical statistical point such as a federal debt ratio of 100 percent of GDP, but a condition of permanent crisis. From the failed election of 2012 forward, every dollar of additional borrowing will induce new political and financial pressures while every dollar of spending cuts and tax increases will further impair the rate of GDP growth.

The mainstream notion that there is a choice between fiscal austerity and fiscal stimulus is wishful thinking. It does not recognize that owing to the triumph of crony capitalism and printing-press money America has become a failed state fiscally. Deficits and debt have now reached the point where…
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Comment by David Ristau

View Single Comment

  1. David Ristau
    July 28th, 2010 at 1:22 pm

    Cappy -

    You are off by 29 years…hahaha.

    Patron - 

    Yes…yes…







Banned from Seeking Alpha – No Freedom for the rePressed!

Is the current noise being made by writers about having their compensation slashed at www.seekingalpha.com just the tip of the iceberg?

SeekingAlpha.com is a very powerful content aggregator that has scooped up thousands of once-independent writers and that all seems like a good thing – until that power becomes abused or, even worse, is used to mislead the readers who have transferred the trust built up by those thousands of writers to SA – as you can see from the bullet-points from SA's own "About Us" page. 

It's hard for me to say what's going on over there as I've now been banned from the site.  I can still view it but every comment I make is immediately deleted – lest I poison the well, apparently.  This is, of course, making me look bad to the 57,090 people who follow me there (according to SA) and damaging my reputation with the 276,971 people they claim to send my articles out to in their "Macro View Daily" Newsletter as well as I am now unable to respond to questions – making me look arrogant and unapproachable, in the very least.  That is, of course, very damaging to my service, where approachable is what we sell!

Articles I've written, as well as comments that were published on the site have now been redacted in the most amazing sweep of censorship since Stalin.  What would cause a major web-site like Seeking-Alpha to act like a Russian Dictator trying to suppress it's critics?  At first we thought it was my criticism of Big Oil and the Manipulation scandal at the NYMEX but, to their credit, they've carried these stories before. 

We have to look at the article the day I was redacted and try to find out what may have set them off.  As I mentioned, we discussed the oil scam, and we discussed the Fed and that's not it so what is it that had them go and pull this article off their web-site AFTER they published it.  Going back to my Author Page on SA, they also rejected Wednesday's article and that one is where I mentioned Tobin Smith and the kickbacks he's allegedly getting for
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The BIS Chart That Abe And Kuroda Would Rather You Didn’t See

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Earlier we noted the rather peculiarly truthful (lack of optimistically-biased bullshit) annual report from the BIS as reading ZeroHedge-sermon-like. There is a smorgasbord of data, charts, and quotes strewn throughout the 204-page melodrama but one caught our eye. Reflecting on the fact that governments in several major economies currently benefit from historically low funding costs, and yet at the same time, rising debt levels have increased their exposure to higher interest rates, the BIS projects the dismal reality that any rise in interest rates without an equal increase in the output growth rate will further undermine fiscal sustainability.

Although predicting when and how a correction in long-term rates will unfold is difficult, it is possible to examine the potential impact on the sustainability of public finances and how any normalization of rates (or Abe’s success in creating 2% ‘inflation’ in Japan) leads the nation’s debt-ratio to explode (to over 600% debt-to-GDP).

What is more concerning is that even with no negative impact from demographics (age-related adjustments) and even assuming a central bank that can keep interest rates at their ultra-low levels for another 30 years, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio will reach almost 400% (that’s a best case scenario!!)

 

 

Unsurprisingly, the higher the interest rate, the faster debt will increase; and while the BIS and the central planners of the world clearly ‘believe’ they can manipulate JGB yields should this happen, we suspect there is a (non-specific R&R vs Krugman based) limit that once crossed creates the qualitative perception shift that Kyle Bass has so unequivocally explained is coming.

As we noted earlier from the BIS – “some policies have clearly hit their limit.”

Chart: BIS





Neil Howe: “The Fourth Turning Has Arrived”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity blog,

In 1996, demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe published the book The Fourth Turning. This study of generational cycles (“turnings”) in America revealed predictable social trends that recur throughout history, and warned of a coming crisis (a “fourth turning”) based on this research.

Fourth turnings are defined by disorder and great changes brought on by a breakdown of the systems and operating principles that dominated the prior three turnings.

Our society has entered a fourth turning (consisting of the twenty-year periods leading up to and out of it immediately.)

 

It is a season you have to move through before you are born again — so to speak — as a society, and regain institutional confidence. You have to go through a crucible to get there.

 

I think the fourth turning started — probably, if I were to date it now — in 2008: the realigning election in that year of Barack Obama against John McCain. And, obviously, simultaneously with that, as we all recall, an epic, historic crash of the global economy from which we still have not recovered.

 

We are sort of hobbling along in kind of a low-earth orbit, with continued high unemployment and excess capacity — not just in the United States, but around the world. And, of course, all the rules of economic policy seem broken and lie in fragments on the floor. People are wondering what the heck do we do in this new era. 

Each of the generational cohorts living within this turning (e.g. Boomers, Gen X, Millennials) have roles to play.

This is a period when, in each of these turnings, each generation is moving in their new phase of life. Boomers are beginning to retire, they are beginning to redefine the senior phase of life. X’s are beginning to assume mid-life roles as the dominant parent generation and leaders. These are people born in the ‘60s and ‘70s. And, Millennials are fully beginning to come of age and redefine young adulthood. And, meanwhile, a very small generation is just beginning to come on stream, which remembers nothing before 2008.

 

We can already see these generational


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JPMorgan Out-Squids Goldman As Frenkel Tentacles The Bank Of Israel

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following the ‘coup’ that led to JPMorgan’s Matt Zames running the TBAC (and implicitly the US Treasury and Fed if one were inclined to believe that is where the real smarts are), it seems Goldman Sachs has once again been out-’vampire-squid’-ed as Jacob Frenkel – Chairman of JPMorgan Chase International – is set to take back the reins of the Bank of Israel.

As The Jeruslaem Post notes, aside from his time at JPMorgan, Frenkel was also vice chairman of insurance giant AIG, and chairman of Merrill Lynch International. Intriguingly, in his prior term at the Bank of Israel (13 years ago), Frenkel “was known in his time as having fought inflation, even at the expense of growth.”

Replacing Fischer, who Bloomberg notes educated Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi while at MIT, Frenkel holds one other key position – Chairman and CEO of the all important Group of 30 (G-30) – which is basically the shadow central planners of the world (don’t believe us? check out the roster of current members) and do not forget what they have proposed in the past.

 

Via The Jerusalem Post,

… “It’s important to note that the problems the economy faces today are totally different than those Prof. Frenkel dealt with in his previous term.

 

The biggest problem today is slowed growth. [Frenkel] was known in his time as having fought inflation, even at the expense of growth.

 

 

[The opposition party noted] the decision proved that, despite Frenkel’s previous achievements, Netanyahu “is unable to think outside the box. What has been is what will be.”

 

Earlier in June, Netanyahu hinted that he was seeking to replace Fischer with a candidate residing abroad, saying at a Likud Beytenu faction meeting that his next nominee would “continue the impressive list of Frenkel and Fischer”





The Recent Surge in Yields: How Does It Compare with the Past?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The bond market selloff after the FOMC meeting and Chairman Bernanke’s surprising specifics about exiting QE was quite stunning. However, his hawkish position was supported by today’s release by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) of its annual report. The abstract for opening section, headed Making the most of borrowed time, begins with the following assertion:

Originally forged to describe central banks’ actions to prevent financial collapse, “whatever it takes” has become a rallying cry for them to continue their extraordinary policies. But we are past the height of the crisis, and the goal of policy today is to return to strong and sustainable growth.

The closing section of the report, Monetary policy at the crossroads, is especially supportive of Chairman Bernanke’s remarks on ending QE.

With monetary policies remaining very accommodative globally, central banks continue to borrow time for others to act. But the cost-benefit balance is inexorably becoming less and less favourable. Furthermore, the postponement of the inevitable exit from these policies poses increasing challenges for central banks. They must re-emphasise their stability-oriented framework for monetary policy, although in a way that takes greater account of both financial stability concerns and global policy spillovers.

Prior to the FOMC drama, Treasury yields had been rising since their interim low in early May. But Wednesday during Bernanke’s press conference, yields began soaring and the selloff accelerated. The 10-year note yield closed at 1.66 on May 2nd. It closed Friday at 2.52, up 86 bps. Expressed as a percentage gain, that’s a rise of 52% in 35 market days. The 5-year yield went from 0.65 to 1.42, up 77 bps, a 118% increase.

To put the selloff in its historical perspectives, I’ve plotted the 35-day volatility for these two Treasury yields since the earliest Fed record of daily closes in 1962. Expressed as a percentage increase, the rise in yields since May 2nd is unprecedented. Here is the 10-year note yield with its 35-day volatility. I’ve also included the Fed Funds Rate to help us understand how the latest volatility compares with periods when the FFR changes.

 

 …
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The Biggest Prospective Housing Bubble Cities In The US

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Housing price gains are outpacing fundamentals, as the median new home sale price relative to real disposable income has recent reached all-time high levels (higher than than the admitted bubble of the mid 2000s), and there are several regions around the US that are seeing simply stunning levels of exuberance with regard price changes. That leaves us asking – just which cities are the most bubble-prone? In order to answer that, Bloomberg has quantified the US cities with the most rapid growth in unemployment (not exactly supportive of home price excesses) coupled with the fastest rising prices. The answer – Yuma, Arizona (followed closely by Elmira, NY) is the most housing-bubble-prone city in the US.

Bloomberg ranked U.S. metropolitan areas on their year-over-year increase in unemployment and median housing list prices.


Methodology

The score was calculated by averaging the two percentage ranks of both criteria. Only metropolitan areas with an increase in both unemployment and median housing list prices between April 2012 and April 2013 were included. For metropolitan areas with more than one city, the average median housing list price of all cities within the area was used. Unemployment rates are seasonally adjusted.





David Kotok: Report from Leen’s Lodge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by rcwhalen.

From my friend David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors in the Acadian region of Maine.  Leens Lodge has some of the best small mouth bass fishing in North America.  It is a wonderful place to take the family.  Suffice to say that US Rt 1 ends just down the road at a large pine tree.  Some photos below.  -- Chris
Report from Leen’s Lodge
June 23, 2013
 
A few of us were sitting around after a day of fishing on pristine waters, with marvelous weather and wonderful conversation here in Maine. We discussed the results of Fed (Federal Reserve) policy and its impact on the housing market.
 
I was fortunate enough to gather with Ed Pinto, Josh Rosner, and Chris Whalen. They have great expertise in housing, housing finance, mortgaging, impacts of the Fed on the banking system, and the regulatory regimes that are affecting the country. Those three have had their share of experiences with congressional testimony and analysis. Regular readers and viewers of economic and financial television will recognize them.
 
The mortgage interest rate in the US is up about 100 basis points in a brief time, thanks to the failed communication policy of the Fed. What does that rise mean?
 
We speculated about how much of a setback will occur to the housing recovery. We know refinancing will come to a stop. Rosner pointed out that a large number of people in the market were cash and speculative buyers. That activity may slow down or come to a stop.


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Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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