Archive for 2013

Guest Post:Gregor Macdonald: What The End Of Cheap Oil Means

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity,

On the heels of Chris’ recent report clarifying the global net energy predicament, he and PeakProsperity.com contributing editor Gregor Macdonald sit down to talk in depth about the broken relationship between energy costs and economic growth.

For much of the twentieth century, the developed world saw a steady march upwards in wages and living standards, due primarily to huge quantities of cheap, high-yielding liquid hydrocarbon. As we find ourselves bumping along the plateau of Peak Oil’s apex, suddenly we find that “growth” is a lot harder to come by.

Of course, if you follow the news today, this is not the story you are hearing. Talk of an energy bonanza and imminent energy independence (in the U.S.) are everywhere, thanks to gas fracking and tight oil production. What is missing from the headlines is the cost side of the equation and a blindness towards future demand. 

For certain, shale gas will be a boon for the U.S. and some other countries. But very little is transported these days by gas, and there are no mega-sized infrastructure projects underway to change that anytime soon. Extraction of new tight oil plays is increasing production, but not by enough to offset other field declines elsewhere in the world, and not at the prices we were used to over the past century. The era of cheap oil is over, and these higher permanent prices act as a boot on the throat of economic growth. Hence the mired global economy we have been experiencing in recent years.

Rather than fooling ourselves with fanciful “energy independence” pablum, we should be looking hard at what kind of future we want to have now that oil is no longer cheap. And we should be asking ourselves in regards to the remaining fossil fuels we’re extracting: How can we put these non-renewable BTUs to their best use, before they become expensive, too?

I think the main conversation we are not having is that wages are very unlikely to ever return to a relationship to energy costs that would make the United States economy into a happy economic story once again. In other words, this whole idea that we will restore that unique relationship of high


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CoRoNaTioN Day 2013

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

COGITO ERGO DOOM

 

.
INAUGURATION 2013

.

The Sultan ascended his throne
His limited powers had grown
A very proud nation
With drones in formation
Now suddenly felt all alone

The Limerick King

IN-O-GURATION 2013





‘Blame The Weather’ As UK Heads For Unprecedented Triple-Dip-Recession

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

How many ‘dips’ before a recession cycle becomes a depression structure? That is likely the question on Carney’s mind as he enters his role as top man at the BoE shortly. As The Guardian reports, an unprecedented third slump in four years looms for the UK as shoppers stay at home and vital transport links grind to a halt amid paralyzing weather. As snow blankets much of the nation, it would appear the next round of central bank easing will be to print ‘sunshine’. A series of economic releases – including weak trade data, downbeat business surveys and dreary retail sales – have fueled concerns that official figures out this week will show that output fell in the final quarter of last year. Now analysts fear a cold snap in January could lead to another quarter of contraction in Q1. The snow, bitter cold and harsh easterly winds continue to cause widespread disruption to travel by air, road and rail.  “Clearly, the longer that the snow and ice lasts, the greater will be the negative impact on the economy,” IHS’ Archer added, though we are sure we will hear of the ‘broken icicle fallacy’ soon enough.

 

Via The Guardian:

 

As transport services ground to a halt, Britons were unable to get to shops and restaurants, companies shut down early, construction work was hit, and supply chains were disrupted. Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said retailers would be particularly hard hit, as the weather disrupted Saturday’s shopping hours.

 

David Tinsley, UK economist at BNP Paribas, said: “The scary thing is that, as the snow falls in London and widespread disruption beckons, we could yet get a drop in first-quarter GDP as well. We would then be in triple-dip territory, albeit for erratic reasons.” With the Met Office forecasting snow in parts of the country well into next week, the economic hit could be serious. “Clearly, the longer that the snow and ice lasts, the greater will be the negative impact on the economy,” said Archer.

 

The snow, bitter cold and harsh easterly winds continued to cause widespread disruption to travel by air, road and rail on Saturday. Further problems are expected as a


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Martin Luther King: Unfulfilled Dreams

MLK's speech below is about the story of life, of unfulfilled dreams, and the good and evil tensions that are part of the Universe. It's quite touching and a powerful reminder that many have died before realizing their dreams. Yet walking down the right path, being engaged in the struggle, is the force that gives meaning to life. And if you believe in God, or whatever you might call the energy of life, it is everywhere, even in Hell. ~ Ilene 

Martin Luther King: Unfulfilled Dreams

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain

Martin Luther King was murdered, 45 year ago, on April 4, 1968, one month after giving this sermon Unfulfilled Dreams in his church in Atlanta, Georgia.

His assassination was one year to the day after he had given his famous speech, A Time To Break the Silence against the war in Vietnam at Riverside Church, New York City, on April 4, 1967.

Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated a little over two months later on June 6, 1968. 

"…So many of us in life start out building temples: temples of character, temples of justice, temples of peace. And so often we don’t finish them. Because life is like Schubert’s "Unfinished Symphony." At so many points we start, we try, we set out to build our various temples. And I guess one of the great agonies of life is that we are constantly trying to finish that which is unfinishable. We are commanded to do that. And so we, like David, find ourselves in so many instances having to face the fact that our dreams are not fulfilled.

Now let us notice first that life is a continual story of shattered dreams. Mahatma Gandhi labored for years and years for the independence of his people. And through a powerful nonviolent revolution he was able to win that independence. For years the Indian people had been dominated politically, exploited economically, segregated and humiliated by foreign powers, and Gandhi struggled against it. He struggled to unite his own people, and nothing was greater in his mind than to have India’s one great, united country moving toward a higher destiny. This was his dream.

But Gandhi had to face the fact that he was assassinated and died with a broken heart, because that nation that


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Robert F. Kennedy On the Death of Martin Luther King, And His Own Last Words

Robert F. Kennedy On the Death of Martin Luther King, And His Own Last Words

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain 

This talk was given at the City Club of Cleveland, Ohio on April 5, 1968, the day after the murder of Dr. Martin Luther King.

Two months later Robert F. Kennedy himself was assassinated on June 6, 1968. 






Why Cyprus Is Big Enough To Cause Trouble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Martin Lueck of UBS,

Cyprus is the euro area’s third-smallest economy in GDP terms (larger only than Malta and Estonia, but likely to be outgrown by the latter this year), accounting for less than 0.2% of the region’s output. Yet, we believe it is big enough to cause trouble. The country urgently needs external funding and applied for an EU/IMF/ECB (in short: troika) programme last summer. In the meantime, the amount in question has risen to EUR17.5bn (c100% of GDP).

However, the conditionality that comes with this programme does not go down well with the current Cypriot government, whereas politicians in core eurozone countries have started to point fingers at the small economy’s low-tax, soft banking regulation business model. What emerges is the threat of another deadlock, in which a small country pulls the eurozone’s consistency per se into question, while politicians in creditor countries place their hopes on a new, more forthcoming government. As it stands, until that happens financial markets will have sufficient time to turn nervous again.

Analogies to other emergency cases…

The Greek economy collapsed partly as a consequence of excessive leverage and a dysfunctional public sector. Ireland suffered from its bursting real estate bubble and implosion of its oversized banking system. Cyprus, in turn, presents itself as a combination of similar legacies. Strong trade links to the Greek mainland led to collapsing business when demand from Greece capsized. Tax revenues dried up in the wake. At the same time, shrinking house prices and massive write-downs on bank assets (in the first place, loans to Greek borrowers and Greek sovereign paper) led to increasing external funding needs in Cyprus’ financial sector, one of the largest in the euro area relative to GDP, close to that of Ireland (Chart 1).

Evaporating bank profits further eroded tax revenues, eventually causing a massive deterioration of Cyprus’ fiscal position.

…plus a good dose of home-made problems

By mid-2012, larger banks like Bank of Cyprus or Cyprus Popular Bank alone reported loans to Greek borrowers that exceeded Cyprus’ GDP. In addition, these institutions suffered from the Greek PSI, i.e. the haircut on Greek sovereign bonds carried out in connection to Greece’s debt restructuring on 21 March 2012. Yet bailing out the country’s banking sector has become difficult for the government since
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Escaping the Fear Factory

Escaping the Fear Factory

Courtesy of , The Reformed Broker 

flower gun

Are the birds chirping? Is tranquility close at hand?

There are many who believe so or at least admit that they can see it in sight.

The world is awash in liquidity and opportunity abounds in every region around the world:

Distressed investors in Europe are now reaping the benefits of their midnight maneuvers where no one else dared to tread. Dan Loeb (Third Point) made a half a billion dollars buying Greek bonds before Labor Day and selling them before Christmas. Marc Lasry (Avenue Capital) is taking whole portfolios of performing loans off the hands of Belgian and French banks at steep discounts, bringing liquidity to one of the last deserts without it.

Animal Spirits are returning to the equity markets as five-year highs are penetrated with a persistent and lusty thrusting from below. The same is true in the corporate bond market as investors line up for the latest offering like sneaker aficionados on Air Jordan launch day. Not every waking second is being spent on avoiding loss – people are once again looking to win, a psychological seachange as important as any quantitative market indicator you want to present to me, I promise you that.

Housing, formerly the Achilles Heel of the US economy, is now the engine driving us out of the negative feedback loop.

Goldman Sachs is back to being Goldman Sachs again, smashing estimates from trading to I-banking to M&A to underwriting.

Bank of America is putting the sins of its acquired mortgage business behind it with every settlement and charge-off.

Even Citi has a request in front of the regulators to up their share buyback.

Morgan Stanley's just traded through a new 52-week high with very little other than green field ahead of it now that it's no longer the poster child for hidden Euro exposure.

You may look at the return to prominence of the big banks and say "How unfair!" You will be right, but please compartmentalize that notion. Because it has nothing to do with your duties as an investor.

The deficit hawks have read the polls, they now understand how unpopular their debt ceiling stance is with the people. They are unwilling to allow the "Republican Recession of 2013" to become the rallying cry of the Democrats during…
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Bull Market Returns Almost Entirely Dependent on Duration

Bull Market Returns Almost Entirely Dependent on Duration

Courtesy of , The Reformed Broker

Every once in awhile a comet shoots across my screen and in an instant I become aware that I'm seeing something special.

In this case, it's a research report from Lighthouse Investment Management's Alexander Gloy that reaches an conclusion so brilliant in its obviousness that everyone ought to be aware of it.

I want you to digest this quick, 8-page report (embedded below) on how the returns of the last half-century's worth of bull markets are almost entirely based on the amount of time they've gone on for. The good news is that, if history holds, we are not quite yet at the median of this move duration-wise (this would occur in October of 2013) and not hardly close to the average bull market ( which doesn't occur until April 2014). [my emphasis]

Take a minute for this, it's a fascinating insight…

Source:

Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time (Lighthouse)





Japan Warns It May Fire On Chinese Aircraft Over Disputed Islands; China Retorts: “There Will Be No Second Shot”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A week ago we reported that following what China said was a response to counter “Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft” over the East China Sea, the world’s most populous country (and one which has the largest, 2.25 million strong, standing army) scrambled several jets and put its military on high alert. Now, it is the turn of Japan, and its brand new militant and nationalistic government, to “retaliate” and escalate tensions by one more notch, in the process crashing any hope that Chinese imports of Japanese goods may resume, and obviating the ongoing temporary plunge in the yen (which while doing nothing to boost exports to this 20% trading partner, has made imports so expensive, inflation in the past two months has already soared well above the 2% target for various key goods as previously reported).

Moments ago, Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.

AP reports:

Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.

 

According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.

 

It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.

 

Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.

 

“Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures,” Japanese Defense Minister


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Crisis in Madrid Update; Plan “A” is Sgt. Schultz Defense, No Plan “B” Yet

Courtesy of Mish.

As noted on Saturday Massive Fraud in Spain Threatens Entire Government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy; Protestors in Madrid Shout “Resignation”.

A wave of new articles has appeared, mostly from Spain, but a few this time in English.

Envelopes Stuffed With Cash

El Pais in English reports Former PP treasurer “handed out envelopes with cash” to party officials

Despite strenuous efforts by the ruling Popular Party (PP) to distance itself from Luis Bárcenas, who is in trouble with the law over corruption allegations, the party’s former treasurer continues to maintain an office in the PP headquarters in Madrid even after having left the group, party sources said Friday.

Bárcenas is implicated in the Gürtel kickbacks-for-contracts scandal, which first broke in 2008. Under an ongoing investigation into the corruption ring, it emerged earlier this week that Bárcenas had a bank account in Switzerland in which he had deposited as much as 22 million euros. He also took advantage of a tax amnesty in place last year to declare 10 million euros, which had previously been kept hidden from the tax authorities.

The PP sources said that despite stepping down as a senator and leaving the party in April 2010, Bárcenas has continued to appear in its Madrid headquarters, seeking help from PP officials to find a solution to the legal quagmire in which he finds himself. He was last seen in the building – located in Génova Street in the center of Madrid – as recently as Wednesday of this week.

Bárcenas, who was treasurer of the PP for 20 years, faces possible charges of money-laundering and tax evasion.

The sources said he still has a secretary in the building, who is on the payroll of the PP, and who makes telephone calls in his name as if he were still in the employ of the party.

Socialist Party to Lodge Criminal Complaint

El Pais in English reports Socialist Party to lodge criminal complaint over illicit PP bonuses.

Socialist Party leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba announced on Sunday that his opposition group will file a criminal complaint before the High Court asking for an investigation into the alleged payments of bonuses from secret accounts held by the Popular Party (PP) to its officials.

In the wake


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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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