Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to show a positive bias. As SPX traded back below 1700 there were not as many bearish tweets or as much top calling as there was on the previous fall from that level. This indicates that traders are not as quick to short 1700 and investors are getting comfortable with a few down days now and again. Although the market closed down every day but Thursday the daily indicator didn’t dip far below zero. It took a weekly lower close to bring out a significant number of bears.


Smoothed sentiment remains well above zero, however it is painting a negative divergence from price. The divergence meets our “three weeks” criteria that will set up a consolidation warning if smoothed sentiment falls below its uptrend line (which is roughly near zero). This isn’t a prediction, instead I’m merely giving notice that it’s something that we’re watching closely. A little more consolidation where smoothed sentiment makes another trip back down to the uptrend and holds would be a positive for the market and most likely create another confirmation of the uptrend (by moving back above the current down trend line). The green and light blue vertical lines on the above chart represent previous times when sentiment reconfirmed the uptrend in the market.

Support and resistance levels generated from the Twitter stream contracted severely last week. The vast majority of tweets called for levels between the most recent low on SPX near 1675 and the most recent high near 1710. Only a few scattered tweets mentioned prices outside that range. 1700 was by far the most tweeted level and is being watched closely by a large number of market participants. A move above that level will most likely bring new highs, while a move below 1675 will probably create a quick move to the 50 day moving average near 1660. The overall message from support and resistance is that the market is coiling for a move as traders wait for a break of the recent range.

Sector sentiment on Twitter is showing the most positive bias for technology, basic materials, and health care. Energy, industrials, and…
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Comment by phil

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  1. phil
    June 21st, 2013 at 12:42 pm

    Income Portfolio – Not a full update but concentrating on moves that need to be made:  

    • TASR – No point to keeping Sept $7.50 put at .30 to make .10 per month.  Let's buy it back and see if we get a downturn we can sell Dec puts into (now .55).  
    • CZR – Big drop this month – great for a new entry (not today – maybe next week – goes for all)
    • RRD – Strong
    • FCX – CEO just bought more.  Good for new entry.  
    • CLF – Fine.  Good for new entry.  
    • HOV – Good for new entry.  
    • AA – Good for new entry. 
    • CSCO – Fine 
    • AGNC – Good for new entry.  
    • AAPL – Damn, we own that piece of crap?  Good for new entry.  
    • EWZ – Wow, what a drop!  
    • TSAL – Improving a bit.  
    • BRK.B – June $100 caller now $11.60, which is .40 less than we sold them for!  Those ran up a lot on us so let's just be happy to make .40 and see how that 50 dma holds up ($110) next week before selling again.  
    • DIA – Wow, that was stupid not buying those short Aug $149 puts back when we went bearish.  No one reminded me then and I forgot but, if we're naked short DIA in the STP, it's not likely we want to be long essentially the same position in the Income Portfolio.  No biggie, our Aug $147 puts are up $2.20 at $3.95 and the June $149 puts are down $1.13 at $2.  I'm bullish into the close so let's wait but, generally, I think I'm happy with the roll to the quarterly $148 puts at $2.05 as the .05 pays for the roll and we'll just see what happens over the weekend.  That's the official play by the day's end but no hurry as the Dow may rise 100 into the close and save us some money.  
    • PGH – Good for new entry.  
    • OIH – Fine. 
    • UNH – Fine
    • GLW – Fine
    • BRCM – Good for new entry.  
    • ABX – Arrrrgh!   OK, so we entered with a commitment to buy 1,500 at net $27 and now they are $16.  We can buy back the 2015


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Comment by garbon

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  1. garbon
    October 7th, 2010 at 10:22 am
    Well I got out for +1% so at least I didn’t have to PAY for my education this time!







Comment by tealady

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  1. tealady
    April 5th, 2009 at 2:32 am
    in the 1929- depression, females  in general didn’t work. So they didn’t count as unemployed.
    Now most do. in 1929 if the "breadwinner" lost a job, it often meant the whole family was without anyone working.
    The equivalent toay would be to add a certain percentage, perhaps 35%(a guestimate) to the reported unemployment figures to obtain some "comparative" figure..as far as real impact would be.
     What do you think of this idea. The figures are guesses, just the concept.
    Thanks







Did China Just Fire The First Salvo Towards a New Gold Standard?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a somewhat shockingly blunt comment from the mouthpiece of Chinese officialdom, Yao Yudong of the PBoC's monetary policy committee has called for a new Bretton Woods system to strengthen the management of global liquidity. In an article in the China Securities Journal, Yao called for more power to the IMF as international copperation and supervision are needed. While comments seem somewhat barbed towards the rest of the world's currency devaluers, given China's growing physical gold demand and the fixed-exchange-rate peg that 'Bretton Woods' represents, and contrary to prevailing misconceptions that the SDR may be the currency of the future, China just may opt to have its own hard asset backed optionality for the future; suggesting the new 'bancor' would be the barbarous relic (or perhaps worse for the US, the Renminbi). Of course, the writing has been on the wall for China's push to end the dollar reserve supremacy for over two years as we have dutifully noted – since no 'world reserve currency' lasts forever.

 

 

Over the last two years, we have noted:

"China Takes Another Stab At The Dollar, Launches Currency Swap Line With France",

 

"BOE and the PBOC announced a currency swap",

 

"Australia And China will Enable Direct Currency Convertibility",

 

"World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade",

 

"China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade",

 

"China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System",

 

"India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement",

 

"Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says", "India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact With Iran In Rupees", and

 

"The USD Trap Is Closing: Dollar Exclusion Zone Crosses The Pacific As Brazil Signs China Currency Swap"

 

As a reminder, we noted here:

The question why China has been scrambling to internationalize the CNY has nothing to do with succumbing to Western demands at reflating its currency to appreciate it and thus to push its current account even lower in the country with the shallowest stock market and the most bank deposits (i.e., most prone to sudden, abrupt bursts of inflation), nearly double those of the US, and everything to…
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Comment by amatta

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  1. amatta
    March 14th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
    Income, 
    I haven’t been able to execute the trade as it’s gotten away and haven’t been able to close out of the March Cycle (since I entered the put side only for a net credit of .10 and it is still above that, while it doesn’t help me to close out the call side as then I lose the Condor Relief from my broker). 
    YES PLEASE KEEP us alerted if the trade can be put on for the same credit in the next few days when I am able to close out of the previous one. 
    Thanks!







Comment by garbon

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  1. garbon
    October 7th, 2010 at 10:22 am
    Well I got out for +1% so at least I didn’t have to PAY for my education this time!







Julian Assange Warns Of The Global Awakening Against The Mainstream Media-ocracy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Readers by definition are ignorant. We read to quench our ignorance. Readers, in effect, are easy prey for newspapers and the people that own them. Newspapers have a knowledge advantage, an information asymmetry. They know what readers don’t know yet, but want to know. And so they can distort the news or even invent it.

- Julian Assange

Julian Assange’s character has been so dragged through the mud throughout the Western world, most people just assume they don’t like him or he is a “bad guy” simply as a result of this intense propaganda. Most people that claim to have an opinion on Assange, like so many other topics, haven’t actually done five minutes of work looking into it. My own opinion on Assange was really formulated after reading the 20,000 word interview conducted by Google’s Eric Schmidt of Julian in 2011. If you haven’t read it yet and don’t have time to go through the whole thing, I suggest checking out my summary of it here.

However, the primary purpose of this post is to highlight this 10 minute video in which Julian intelligently articulates the changing state of media and journalism, the early success of his Wikileaks political party, and the massive global awakening currently sweeping across the planet. Enjoy!

 





Comment by dflam

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  1. dflam
    December 2nd, 2009 at 12:27 pm
    my sentiments exactly
    Dflam







Comment by jeddah62

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  1. jeddah62
    August 14th, 2007 at 10:37 pm
    Thought I’d share what I think is an interesting perspective of the indexes:

    stocks above their 200/50/20-EMA (3-YEARS)

    SPX
    —-
    200 – 38.6% (slightly lower than low set in June ’06)
    50 – 14.2% (lowest in 3 years)
    20 – 8.8% (tied with lows set in Oct ’05 and March ’07)

    DJIA
    —-
    200 – 60% (still higher than all lows in 3 years. lowest was 30%)
    50 – 20% (still higher than all lows in 3 years. lowest was 10%)
    20 – 6.6% (slightly higher than low set in March ’07. lowest ~3%)

    NASDAQ
    —-
    200 – 30% (tied with lows set in April ’05 and July ’06)
    50 – 23% (tied with lows set in April ’05 and July ’06)
    20 – 23% (tied with lows set in April ’05 and July ’06)

    Interesting to see where it goes from here.







 
 
 

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rawpixel / Pixabay

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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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