Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to show a positive bias. As SPX traded back below 1700 there were not as many bearish tweets or as much top calling as there was on the previous fall from that level. This indicates that traders are not as quick to short 1700 and investors are getting comfortable with a few down days now and again. Although the market closed down every day but Thursday the daily indicator didn’t dip far below zero. It took a weekly lower close to bring out a significant number of bears.


Smoothed sentiment remains well above zero, however it is painting a negative divergence from price. The divergence meets our “three weeks” criteria that will set up a consolidation warning if smoothed sentiment falls below its uptrend line (which is roughly near zero). This isn’t a prediction, instead I’m merely giving notice that it’s something that we’re watching closely. A little more consolidation where smoothed sentiment makes another trip back down to the uptrend and holds would be a positive for the market and most likely create another confirmation of the uptrend (by moving back above the current down trend line). The green and light blue vertical lines on the above chart represent previous times when sentiment reconfirmed the uptrend in the market.

Support and resistance levels generated from the Twitter stream contracted severely last week. The vast majority of tweets called for levels between the most recent low on SPX near 1675 and the most recent high near 1710. Only a few scattered tweets mentioned prices outside that range. 1700 was by far the most tweeted level and is being watched closely by a large number of market participants. A move above that level will most likely bring new highs, while a move below 1675 will probably create a quick move to the 50 day moving average near 1660. The overall message from support and resistance is that the market is coiling for a move as traders wait for a break of the recent range.

Sector sentiment on Twitter is showing the most positive bias for technology, basic materials, and health care. Energy, industrials, and…
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Comment by phil

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  1. phil
    June 21st, 2013 at 12:42 pm

    Income Portfolio – Not a full update but concentrating on moves that need to be made:  

    • TASR – No point to keeping Sept $7.50 put at .30 to make .10 per month.  Let's buy it back and see if we get a downturn we can sell Dec puts into (now .55).  
    • CZR – Big drop this month – great for a new entry (not today – maybe next week – goes for all)
    • RRD – Strong
    • FCX – CEO just bought more.  Good for new entry.  
    • CLF – Fine.  Good for new entry.  
    • HOV – Good for new entry.  
    • AA – Good for new entry. 
    • CSCO – Fine 
    • AGNC – Good for new entry.  
    • AAPL – Damn, we own that piece of crap?  Good for new entry.  
    • EWZ – Wow, what a drop!  
    • TSAL – Improving a bit.  
    • BRK.B – June $100 caller now $11.60, which is .40 less than we sold them for!  Those ran up a lot on us so let's just be happy to make .40 and see how that 50 dma holds up ($110) next week before selling again.  
    • DIA – Wow, that was stupid not buying those short Aug $149 puts back when we went bearish.  No one reminded me then and I forgot but, if we're naked short DIA in the STP, it's not likely we want to be long essentially the same position in the Income Portfolio.  No biggie, our Aug $147 puts are up $2.20 at $3.95 and the June $149 puts are down $1.13 at $2.  I'm bullish into the close so let's wait but, generally, I think I'm happy with the roll to the quarterly $148 puts at $2.05 as the .05 pays for the roll and we'll just see what happens over the weekend.  That's the official play by the day's end but no hurry as the Dow may rise 100 into the close and save us some money.  
    • PGH – Good for new entry.  
    • OIH – Fine. 
    • UNH – Fine
    • GLW – Fine
    • BRCM – Good for new entry.  
    • ABX – Arrrrgh!   OK, so we entered with a commitment to buy 1,500 at net $27 and now they are $16.  We can buy back the 2015


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Comment by garbon

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  1. garbon
    October 7th, 2010 at 10:22 am
    Well I got out for +1% so at least I didn’t have to PAY for my education this time!







Comment by tealady

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  1. tealady
    April 5th, 2009 at 2:32 am
    in the 1929- depression, females  in general didn’t work. So they didn’t count as unemployed.
    Now most do. in 1929 if the "breadwinner" lost a job, it often meant the whole family was without anyone working.
    The equivalent toay would be to add a certain percentage, perhaps 35%(a guestimate) to the reported unemployment figures to obtain some "comparative" figure..as far as real impact would be.
     What do you think of this idea. The figures are guesses, just the concept.
    Thanks







Did China Just Fire The First Salvo Towards a New Gold Standard?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a somewhat shockingly blunt comment from the mouthpiece of Chinese officialdom, Yao Yudong of the PBoC's monetary policy committee has called for a new Bretton Woods system to strengthen the management of global liquidity. In an article in the China Securities Journal, Yao called for more power to the IMF as international copperation and supervision are needed. While comments seem somewhat barbed towards the rest of the world's currency devaluers, given China's growing physical gold demand and the fixed-exchange-rate peg that 'Bretton Woods' represents, and contrary to prevailing misconceptions that the SDR may be the currency of the future, China just may opt to have its own hard asset backed optionality for the future; suggesting the new 'bancor' would be the barbarous relic (or perhaps worse for the US, the Renminbi). Of course, the writing has been on the wall for China's push to end the dollar reserve supremacy for over two years as we have dutifully noted – since no 'world reserve currency' lasts forever.

 

 

Over the last two years, we have noted:

"China Takes Another Stab At The Dollar, Launches Currency Swap Line With France",

 

"BOE and the PBOC announced a currency swap",

 

"Australia And China will Enable Direct Currency Convertibility",

 

"World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade",

 

"China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade",

 

"China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System",

 

"India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement",

 

"Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says", "India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact With Iran In Rupees", and

 

"The USD Trap Is Closing: Dollar Exclusion Zone Crosses The Pacific As Brazil Signs China Currency Swap"

 

As a reminder, we noted here:

The question why China has been scrambling to internationalize the CNY has nothing to do with succumbing to Western demands at reflating its currency to appreciate it and thus to push its current account even lower in the country with the shallowest stock market and the most bank deposits (i.e., most prone to sudden, abrupt bursts of inflation), nearly double those of the US, and everything to…
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Comment by amatta

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  1. amatta
    March 14th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
    Income, 
    I haven’t been able to execute the trade as it’s gotten away and haven’t been able to close out of the March Cycle (since I entered the put side only for a net credit of .10 and it is still above that, while it doesn’t help me to close out the call side as then I lose the Condor Relief from my broker). 
    YES PLEASE KEEP us alerted if the trade can be put on for the same credit in the next few days when I am able to close out of the previous one. 
    Thanks!







Comment by garbon

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  1. garbon
    October 7th, 2010 at 10:22 am
    Well I got out for +1% so at least I didn’t have to PAY for my education this time!







Julian Assange Warns Of The Global Awakening Against The Mainstream Media-ocracy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Readers by definition are ignorant. We read to quench our ignorance. Readers, in effect, are easy prey for newspapers and the people that own them. Newspapers have a knowledge advantage, an information asymmetry. They know what readers don’t know yet, but want to know. And so they can distort the news or even invent it.

- Julian Assange

Julian Assange’s character has been so dragged through the mud throughout the Western world, most people just assume they don’t like him or he is a “bad guy” simply as a result of this intense propaganda. Most people that claim to have an opinion on Assange, like so many other topics, haven’t actually done five minutes of work looking into it. My own opinion on Assange was really formulated after reading the 20,000 word interview conducted by Google’s Eric Schmidt of Julian in 2011. If you haven’t read it yet and don’t have time to go through the whole thing, I suggest checking out my summary of it here.

However, the primary purpose of this post is to highlight this 10 minute video in which Julian intelligently articulates the changing state of media and journalism, the early success of his Wikileaks political party, and the massive global awakening currently sweeping across the planet. Enjoy!

 





Comment by dflam

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  1. dflam
    December 2nd, 2009 at 12:27 pm
    my sentiments exactly
    Dflam







Comment by jeddah62

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  1. jeddah62
    August 14th, 2007 at 10:37 pm
    Thought I’d share what I think is an interesting perspective of the indexes:

    stocks above their 200/50/20-EMA (3-YEARS)

    SPX
    —-
    200 – 38.6% (slightly lower than low set in June ’06)
    50 – 14.2% (lowest in 3 years)
    20 – 8.8% (tied with lows set in Oct ’05 and March ’07)

    DJIA
    —-
    200 – 60% (still higher than all lows in 3 years. lowest was 30%)
    50 – 20% (still higher than all lows in 3 years. lowest was 10%)
    20 – 6.6% (slightly higher than low set in March ’07. lowest ~3%)

    NASDAQ
    —-
    200 – 30% (tied with lows set in April ’05 and July ’06)
    50 – 23% (tied with lows set in April ’05 and July ’06)
    20 – 23% (tied with lows set in April ’05 and July ’06)

    Interesting to see where it goes from here.







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

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Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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