Archive for 2013

Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Shadow -

    I am not sure Phil will be checking this article.

Comment by jimjakub

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  1. jimjakub

    I have been willing to give libertarians a shot until I read crap like this.  I am not a big fan of the unions but…."When organized labor is at 0%, both public and private, we will be on our way to prosperity.", come on you mean to tell me that they are the main reason that jobs went to China.  It is ironic that the places where all the jobs are going are either Communist (China) or heavily controlled by their government (India, Japan,Singapore…).  On second thought I challenge any libertarian to show me an Ayn Rand utopia or even just a country that has adopted the libertarian style of governance.     
    And talk about revisionist history…if FDR’s legacy was so bad how did it last for 30 years (40-70).  Lets take a look at Reagan’s legacy.  Deficits that started to balloon out of control and thats when the good jobs started to leave and people replaced high wages with debt. That’s when our problems really started, when high wage jobs started leaving and consumer debt made up the difference.  Mish you don’t have to be an academic to live in a dream world . 
    PS lay off the Ayn Rand crack pipe

Comment by cohnstad

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  1. cohnstad


Comment by greedpeace

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  1. greedpeace

    barrons – long nrmx, wye, brcm short fmd

Comment by windseye

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  1. windseye

    Not all grains of sand are the same… in the real world creating massive numbers of sub-prime loans is a very big and anti-system warp. It's equivalent to dropping grains of sand onto an unstable FOUNDATION… the web of instability is much more unstable when the foundation is already more connected with different probabilities of collapse.

Comment by samz3700

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  1. samz3700

     Income Trader -
    sorry to go over this again – but rather than just put out an alert – it would be really helpful if you would make a post for each month – its annoying to miss the trades – i get so many emails from phil’s that it is really easy to miss it.
    If there is a post for each month, I can find it – i cannot go through each thread each day

Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader

     Williex -

    We send out our trades as an alert to Premium and Income trader members, so check your email – you probably got our alert and ignored it. We have two sites – "" and "".

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Fan – That is some scary stuff! Don’t forget C competes with ETFC for those deposits so it is no surprise they would raise the safety issue as they angle to capture some of those $15Bn in deposits. I think the concerns are valid but, as it says right in the report: “investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.”

    If ETrade, or any of them go, we can short that group (small brokers) with abandon. Anyone with substantial amounts of cash in a brokerage account needs to have a conversation with their broker about what guarantees there are for their deposits and spreading your cash out is always a good idea.

    The Citi analysts, as usual, display their idiocy by calling SCHW a buy while rating ETFC a sell as there is nothing that will happen to ETFC that won’t happen to SCHW 30 days later if their premise is true. The same goes for AMTD.

Stock Market Valuation is a Relative Game

Stock Market Valuation is a Relative Game

Courtesy of 

The S&P 500′s valuation on current earnings is more expensive than it was last year and more expensive than it was the year before. Relative to 2012 and 2011, it is not cheap. In addition, it is also expensive relative to the earnings growth rate and to the rate of growth in the US economy overall.

But the S&P 500 is not at a bubble valuation at the current moment.

I know sometimes you wish things would be black or white, Summer Roberts or Marissa Cooper, but that sort of exactitude just isn’t how the world works.

And so the answer as to whether or not the market is cheap comes laden with asterisks and caveats and on-the-other-hands.

Here’s FactSet Research with some nuance on the current valuation puzzle:

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 now stands at 15.0, based on yesterday’s closing price (1790.62) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($119.26). This is the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio logged by the S&P 500 in more than four years (September 2009). Given the high values driving the “P” in the P/E ratio, how does this 15.0 P/E ratio compare to historical averages? Is the index now overvalued? On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (13.0) and 10-year (14.0) average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.2), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

SP500_Forward_PE -Nov 15 13

Josh here – Everything is a relative game in the stock market. Relative not to any numbers or historic time period, but relative to expectations.

Expectations are just now coming around to the bright side. For years there were no expectations whatsoever and this is how we’ve gotten a 40% expansion in the current price-to-earnings multiple.

It ain’t magic.

If people largely expect the worst for an extended period of time and the worst doesn’t happen, longs make money. Lots of it.

Now of course, when expectations start to grow sunny and widespread…
continue reading

Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader

     Jbur -

    Thanks for the complements. The May trades was posted as an alert to premium and Income Trader , subscribers. It was also posted in the comments section as well.



#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...

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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...

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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics


Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...

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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain


Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...

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Insider Scoop Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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