Archive for 2013

Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Shadow -

    I am not sure Phil will be checking this article.

Comment by jimjakub

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  1. jimjakub

    I have been willing to give libertarians a shot until I read crap like this.  I am not a big fan of the unions but…."When organized labor is at 0%, both public and private, we will be on our way to prosperity.", come on you mean to tell me that they are the main reason that jobs went to China.  It is ironic that the places where all the jobs are going are either Communist (China) or heavily controlled by their government (India, Japan,Singapore…).  On second thought I challenge any libertarian to show me an Ayn Rand utopia or even just a country that has adopted the libertarian style of governance.     
    And talk about revisionist history…if FDR’s legacy was so bad how did it last for 30 years (40-70).  Lets take a look at Reagan’s legacy.  Deficits that started to balloon out of control and thats when the good jobs started to leave and people replaced high wages with debt. That’s when our problems really started, when high wage jobs started leaving and consumer debt made up the difference.  Mish you don’t have to be an academic to live in a dream world . 
    PS lay off the Ayn Rand crack pipe

Comment by cohnstad

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  1. cohnstad


Comment by greedpeace

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  1. greedpeace

    barrons – long nrmx, wye, brcm short fmd

Comment by windseye

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  1. windseye

    Not all grains of sand are the same… in the real world creating massive numbers of sub-prime loans is a very big and anti-system warp. It's equivalent to dropping grains of sand onto an unstable FOUNDATION… the web of instability is much more unstable when the foundation is already more connected with different probabilities of collapse.

Comment by samz3700

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  1. samz3700

     Income Trader -
    sorry to go over this again – but rather than just put out an alert – it would be really helpful if you would make a post for each month – its annoying to miss the trades – i get so many emails from phil’s that it is really easy to miss it.
    If there is a post for each month, I can find it – i cannot go through each thread each day

Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader

     Williex -

    We send out our trades as an alert to Premium and Income trader members, so check your email – you probably got our alert and ignored it. We have two sites – "" and "".

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Fan – That is some scary stuff! Don’t forget C competes with ETFC for those deposits so it is no surprise they would raise the safety issue as they angle to capture some of those $15Bn in deposits. I think the concerns are valid but, as it says right in the report: “investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.”

    If ETrade, or any of them go, we can short that group (small brokers) with abandon. Anyone with substantial amounts of cash in a brokerage account needs to have a conversation with their broker about what guarantees there are for their deposits and spreading your cash out is always a good idea.

    The Citi analysts, as usual, display their idiocy by calling SCHW a buy while rating ETFC a sell as there is nothing that will happen to ETFC that won’t happen to SCHW 30 days later if their premise is true. The same goes for AMTD.

Stock Market Valuation is a Relative Game

Stock Market Valuation is a Relative Game

Courtesy of 

The S&P 500′s valuation on current earnings is more expensive than it was last year and more expensive than it was the year before. Relative to 2012 and 2011, it is not cheap. In addition, it is also expensive relative to the earnings growth rate and to the rate of growth in the US economy overall.

But the S&P 500 is not at a bubble valuation at the current moment.

I know sometimes you wish things would be black or white, Summer Roberts or Marissa Cooper, but that sort of exactitude just isn’t how the world works.

And so the answer as to whether or not the market is cheap comes laden with asterisks and caveats and on-the-other-hands.

Here’s FactSet Research with some nuance on the current valuation puzzle:

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 now stands at 15.0, based on yesterday’s closing price (1790.62) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($119.26). This is the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio logged by the S&P 500 in more than four years (September 2009). Given the high values driving the “P” in the P/E ratio, how does this 15.0 P/E ratio compare to historical averages? Is the index now overvalued? On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (13.0) and 10-year (14.0) average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.2), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

SP500_Forward_PE -Nov 15 13

Josh here – Everything is a relative game in the stock market. Relative not to any numbers or historic time period, but relative to expectations.

Expectations are just now coming around to the bright side. For years there were no expectations whatsoever and this is how we’ve gotten a 40% expansion in the current price-to-earnings multiple.

It ain’t magic.

If people largely expect the worst for an extended period of time and the worst doesn’t happen, longs make money. Lots of it.

Now of course, when expectations start to grow sunny and widespread…
continue reading

Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader

     Jbur -

    Thanks for the complements. The May trades was posted as an alert to premium and Income Trader , subscribers. It was also posted in the comments section as well.


Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

more from Bitcoin


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


more from Biotech


More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

more from M.T.M.


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

more from OpTrader


Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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