Archive for 2013

“Why Bother?”

“Why Bother?” Will investors take the wrong lessons from 2013?

Courtesy of 
 
Thinking back on a great year for investing in the US stock market but a hard year on market participants overall.

US stocks went wild this year but almost nothing else kept pace – any attempt to hedge or diversify now looks to have been either futile or foolish here at year’s end.

Consider:

The Global Dow Jones Index is up about 20% on the year, but the Global Dow ex-US is only up 9%.

Why bother with international exposure at all?

Long-term Treasurys are down 15% this year and their corporate bond counterparts are down 7%.  Munis, agencies and mortgage-backeds are all in the red, REITs are flat.

Why bother diversifying at all?

There are only 40 stocks in the S&P 500 that have a negative return on the year. There are more stocks in the S&P 500 with gains of over 60% YTD.

Why bother hedging at all?

The US stock market has spent over one full year above its 200-day moving average and hasn’t been negative for a calendar year since 2011.

Why bother being tactical at all?

In hindsight, there was only one way to “win big” this year and “beat the markets”: Buy and hold, long and strong, US stocks only. More importantly: No bonds, no shorts, no hedges, no diversification, no tactics.

No wonder trillions have been pouring into the passive products of Vanguard, iShares and State Street. It’s the only game in town!

Investors are now preparing for the coming Battle of 2014 by exaggerating the posture and behavior that’s worked for 2013. This is called the Recency Effect – believing the environment we’ve just been in is somehow a permanent one, extrapolating the just-was to construct an outlook for the soon-to-be.

They do it every year.

Many will throw away the portfolio playbook that didn’t give them the best of all possible results this year.Diversification is broken. They’ll move their chips into position solely on black, after…
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BaBuSHCaiN…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

BABUSHCAIN
.

 

“Just as we did for the Occupy Wall Street protestors in Zucotti Park and the Snow Park encampment in Oakland, we are here to support your just cause…”

 

WB7:

Just sayin’





Comment by Gordo

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  1. Gordo

    No Dice







Comment by JNjr

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  1. JNjr

    David,
    Thanks for today’s trade and giving the advice to go in and out (then back into) Etrade. Did the trade at 1.72 and out at 1.78. Then picked it up again for 1.72 and held to 1.83. I did get stopped out of YGE but ETFC more than made up for it.







S&P Futures, Nikkei Slide On Large Block Trade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just after 10pm Eastern, a big block in the S&P futures, over 10k contracts, was dumped in the very thin Sunday night tape, sending the complex lower by over 10 points, and after opening at 1768.5, ES dumped as low at 1754 in a matter of seconds, before recovering some of the losses to 1760. The Nikkei was hit concurrently by correlation algos impacted by the same downdraft, which also pinged the various JPY pairs lower, if leaving the EUR largely untouched. Needless to say there was no news of note to prompt this move, which appears to have been either a partial fat finger, or someone trying to exit the market in a hurry ahead of next week’s FOMC festivities.

ES:

Nikkei likewise dropped:

In the meantime, the 10 Year is not exactly rushing for the exits:

If a reason for the drop manifests itself, we will update this post, in the meantime, we expect Overnight Ramp Capital to arrive promptly or else confidence in central-planning may take a hit ahead of the Wednesday Taperish FOMC, and Thursday’s double POMO.





Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland

    The CONgressional members are wide awake, likely on Cocaine or Crack.
    They know that they won’t do much more than put on a show for the tv cameras.
    It’s not about actually doing anything, it’s about APPEARING to do something about the Stephen Friedman, Lord Blankfein, Ace Greenberg, Larry Fink, Gary Gensler, theBernank, Geithner, Hank Paulson, Joe Cassano, Chris Cox, Chris Dodd, Bobby Rubin, Kashkari, Orszag, and the rest of the secular jewish mafia.







Comment by juliet

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  1. juliet

    Jared, is there a way to download the short-term positions?

    j







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Hey all,

    Overnight Trade is up. We are looking to get involved with LHO – LaSalle Hotel Properties for today.

    Get in before the end of the day.

    Good Investing!







Haircut Deficit: Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending; Since Recession Ended, Durable Goods +34%, Services +6.3%; What’s Next?

Courtesy of Mish.

The recession ended in mid-2009. Since then spending on services has lagged spending on durable goods by a huge margin.

Why? A record number of Millennials, adults aged 18 to 32, put off household formation and stay at home to live with parents.

Why? No job and/or huge college debt with no way to pay it back.

The jobless rate for Americans aged 18 to 19 years old stood at 19.2%. Unemployment among 20- to 24-year-olds is 11.6 percent. In contrast, the overall unemployment rate is 7%.

Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending

Bloomberg reports on the Haircut Deficit, Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending.

Consumer spending on services — everything from rents and water bills to health care and haircuts — is a laggard as the economy has recovered from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Such expenditures adjusted for inflation have risen 6.3 percent since mid-2009, compared with a 34 percent surge in outlays on durable goods such as automobiles and appliances, according to data from the Commerce Department in Washington.

Purchases of durable goods have been quicker to recover. Some of the growth is driven by record-low interest rates, supporting auto sales that account for almost a quarter of the increase in spending on long-lasting items. Another contributor is pent-up demand for replacement of aging household goods such as appliances and furniture. Neither force has much effect on purchases of services, which are more likely than durable goods to be paid for in cash. 

From 2008 through this year, the annual rise in the number of households has averaged less than 1 percent. That compares with an average year-over-year gain of about 1.7 percent in Census Bureau data going back to 1948.

“If you look at household size, the average number of people per household has gone up,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist in Charlotte, North Carolina, at Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. home lender. “Consumption of household services by person has actually gone down because it’s the same amount of space consumed by three people instead of two.”

Millennials — adults aged 18 to 32 — are still slow to set out on their own more than four years after the


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Is The Perfect Storm Coming For Gold?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Due to western central bank price manipulation, the mining sector is in critical condition, the supply line is all but halted, and the physical supply is being swallowed up by Asia. The last shoe to drop is for major mining companies to start closing down production at major mines. Though this would be perceived as the end for gold, speculators will be happy to know that this would be the beginning of the biggest Fed induced bubble in history! But unlike previous Fed bubbles where they support the price increase, the gold bubble will be a result of western central planners mis-managing the gold price for the past 3 decades and finally losing control. As Peak Resources explains in the brief clip, the perfect storm is coming for gold…

 

 

Via Peak Resources,

Friday October 11th, gold trading was shut down for 10 seconds according to the CME.

Why, because someone sold 2 million ounces of gold at one time. Who does this? Who sells nearly 2 and half percent of annual gold production in a single minute? The gold valued at over $2.5 billion could not have been sold by a small trader, and certainly not the smart money, institutional investors know that you don’t exit a large trade like this…

So who could it be? Try the dumb money, The Western Central Banks.

As noted by organizations like GATA, TF Metals Report, ZeroHedge, and Shtfplan, gold manipulation is out in the open. Friday October 11th is just one of the daily examples.

With the western central banks suppressing the price, the eastern central banks have been happy buyers.

However, PeakResources.org believes this gold price suppression scheme is nearing its end.

With the Federal Reserve on a fiat currency suicide mission with QE forever, and the U.S. federal government bankrupt, the days of dollar supremacy are in its last days.

For gold though, the central banks have really screwed themselves.

At a price of $1,250, gold mining companies can no longer make a profit. Recent studies show their all in cash cost anywhere from $1,400 to as high as $1,700. Liquid fuels, human energy, and new exploration are costly in the mining process, so it is unlikely these costs can be cut to accommodate the low gold price.…
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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

Cryptos Are Exploding Higher, Bitcoin At 12-Month Highs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The cryptocurrency market cap surged above $260 billion in early Asian trading tonight as the entire space legs to a new cycle high, led by Litecoin with Bitcoin hitting 12-month highs.

Source: CoinMarketCap.com

Litecoin is up around 12% in the last hour and the rest of the crypto-space is up 7-8% suddenly...

...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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