Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still warning of a pause or correction in the market. The daily indicator continues to paint lower highs even as SPX grinds higher. There is a theme building in the Twitterverse about the correction that just won?t materialize. Many people are tweeting about technical reasons the market should fall, but also warning that price hasn?t confirmed the weak internals. The tone is mixed with frustration and boredom as traders wait for a direction. The daily indicator has kept its prints in the neutral zone (-10 to +10) for almost two weeks, which is another sign of indecision by traders.

Smoothed sentiment strengthened from low levels last week, but continues to diverge from price and is still below zero. This shows that the bears continue to outweigh the bulls, however, they are very close to being evenly matched at the moment.

SPX was turned back at Twitter resistance of 1525 last week. This highlights the negative risk/reward scenario we mentioned in our previous update. When there is strong resistance just above the market but support has multiple levels well below current prices, traders are likely to close longs or enter short positions at the resistance level.

Twitter support and resistance levels are now tightening in a range between 1500 and 1525 on SPX. There are very few tweets above or below those levels. This suggests that traders are waiting for a break from the current range before taking action. There are so many tweets mentioning 1525 that a break above it will most likely cause a short covering rally that moves quickly higher. Any weakness will most likely cause a drop to 1500.

Note: I have created a download page so readers can load the sentiment indicator into their own chart packages. It’s located here.


Note from dshort: Here is a YouTube video in which Blair gives an explanation of the indicator and examples of how he used it in his posts over the last several weeks.


For additional background information on this indicator, see Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter.

Blair Jensen at Downside Hedge tracks Twitter sentiment and provides hedging strategies for individual investors.

 

 

 

 





Message From The Dronemaster General

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

 

 

Source: NY Times





Argentina’s Financial Collapse – Past Is Prologue

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The following rather stunning documentary provides a critical insight into what Europe (and Argentina once again) could well be progressing towards. There is a reason we highlight the ‘scariest chart in Europe’ as that of youth unemployment and with the central banks printing money at ever increasing paces and the next round of global competitive devaluation beginning, the debt slaves will suffer ever more. In 2001, Argentina collapsed; after many years of apathy in the country, the insurrection exploded. As TopDocumentary notes, the spontaneous revolt of ‘faceless’ people meant saucepans were being banged in every neighborhood.

What happened to Argentina? How was it possible that in so rich a country so many people were hungry? The country had been ransacked by a new form of aggression, committed in time of peace and in a democracy. A daily and silent violence that caused greater social disruption, more emigration and death than the terrorism of the dictatorship and the Falkland Islands war.

Ever since independence, almost 200 years ago, Argentina’s foreign debt has been a source of impoverishment and corruption and the biggest scandals. Since the first loan negotiated by Rivadavia in 1824 with the British Bank Baring Brothers, the debt was used to enrich Argentinean financiers, to control the finances and empty the country of its wealth.

This foreign debt always went hand in hand with big business, and with the complicity of nearly every government, from Miter and Quintana to Menem and De la Rua. The policy of indebtedness gave rise in Argentina to generations of technocrats and bureaucrats, who favored banks and international corporations over their own country. Educated at Harvard, Chicago, Oxford or Buenos Aires, their portraits hang in the official galleries.

 





Swing trading portfolio – week of February 11th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





Almost Every Investor Has The Same Bullish Thinking

ANALYST: I Just Traveled Around The World, And Almost Every Investor Has The Same Bullish Thinking

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider

cocktail umbrella

Wikimedia Commons

These last few days notwithstanding, markets have really been on an incredible tear.

So what are real investors thinking?

Nomura's interest rate strategist George Goncalves has a great weekend note out in which he relays some observations from professional money managers, after he and his colleagues did a big global tour to kick off 2013.

Uniformly, he found that the view was this: The Fed had its hand on the till, and there was almost no way for risk assets to go down in light of the Fed stimulus. Virtually everyone was bullish. Even the bond managers aren't worried about a great-rotation inspired selloff (they're not really that worried about a shift from bonds to equities) though it is in the back of their minds.

From his note:

Great Rotation or a Great Consternation?
Many of the bond fund manager (ex-hedge funds) that we spoke with were not convinced that a "Great Rotation" was in the making and agreed with our view that there is enough cash on the sidelines to lift all asset classes on the margin so long as the Fed keeps QE alive. One account said, "If the Fed is benefiting stocks, why would that be at the expense of bonds when they are using bonds to ease." He went on to say, "If the slightly less dovish FOMC minutes released in early January were enough to spook bond investors, if the Fed ever hinted that easing is going to stop, watch out below stocks." The more I listened to their concerns and questions from a wide cross section of investors, the more I felt there is a great consternation about what keeps inflows coming into all types of investments funds.

At the end of the day it‘s all about AUM and the pie is only theoretically bigger because the Fed is retiring bonds, even if they don‘t stop perhaps there has been much ado about this great rotation and instead cash will be…
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Guest Post: Note To Fed: Giving The Banks Free Money Won’t Make Us Hire More Workers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Lowering interest rate and making credit abundant doesn't make employers hire more workers.

 
The Federal Reserve's policy of targeting unemployment is based on a curious faith that low interest rates and lots of liquidity sloshing around the bank system with magically lead employers to hire more workers. I say this is a curious faith because it makes no sense. In effect, the Fed policy is based on the implicit assumption that the only thing holding entrepreneurs and employers back from hiring is the cost and availability of credit.
 
But as anyone in the actual position of hiring more staff knows, it is not a lack of cheap credit that makes adding workers unattractive, it is the lack of opportunities to increase profit margins by adding more workers.
 
If the economic boom of the mid-1980s proves anything, it is that the cost of credit can be very high but that in itself does not restrain real growth. What restrains growth is not interest rates, it is opportunities to profitably expand operations.
 
What the Fed cannot dare admit is that in a crony-capitalist, globalized, State/cartel-dominated economy, there are few profitable opportunities, regardless of the cost of credit. Yes, there is a natural-gas boom in the Dakotas, but outside of energy plays the harsh reality is that the only way for most businesses to increase profits is reduce labor, not hire more workers.
 
The second survival tactic is to lower labor costs by recycling full-time, full benefits jobs into part-time or lower-paid jobs. Rather than pay insanely high healthcare premiums on full-time jobs, businesses lay off full-benefit workers and replace them with a mix of part-time workers who receive no benefits or contract workers who handle their own healthcare costs.
 


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Russia Flips Petrodollar On Its Head By Exporting Crude, Buying Record Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

China has been a very active purchaser of gold for its reserves in the last few years, as we extensively covered here and here, but another nation has taken over the ‘biggest buyer’ role (for the same reasons as China).

 

Central banks around the world have printed money to escape the global financial crisis, and as Bloomberg reports, IMF data shows Russia added 570 metric tons in the past decade. Putin’s fears that “the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly,” are clearly being taken seriously as the world’s largest oil producer turns black gold into hard assets. A lawmaker in Putin’s party noted, “the more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there’s a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound or any other reserve currency.”

Putin’s gold strategy fits in with his resource nationalism, statist agenda, as Bloomberg notes when Russia defaulted in 1998 it took 28 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold, was 11.5 barrels when Putin came to power and when in 2005 it had fallen to 6.5 barrels (less than half what it is now), he went all in, telling the central bank to buy.

Russia has gone through bouts of hoarding before – from 1867′s Tsar Alexander II to Lenin, for now, with more than five years left in Putin’s term, Russia plans to keep on buying – “The pace will be determined by the market,” First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 25. “Whether to speed that up or slow it down is a market decision and I’m not going to discuss it.”

 

 

Via Bloomberg,

Putin Turns Black Gold Into Bullion as Russia Out-Buys World

 

When Vladimir Putin says the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he’s not just talking. He’s betting on it.

 

Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also


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Key Events In The Coming Week And Complete February European Calendar

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With China offline celebrating its New Year, and potentially mobilizing forces in (not so) secret, and not much on the global event docket, the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers meeting in Moscow at the end of the week will be the key event for FX markets, which these days define every other aspect of risk. It should surprise nobody the last couple of weeks have seen increased attention on exchange rates and the frequent use of the “currency war” label by policymakers in many countries. No news announcements are expected at the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the formal announcement of a 2% inflation target and an open-ended asset purchase program.

On the data side, US retail sales on Wednesday will provide an important signal about the strength of the US consumer following the largest tax increase in decades. Although January auto and same store sales data was reasonably solid, new taxes will soon begin to weigh on spending. Also on Wednesday, Japan Q4 GDP will be released. On Thursday, Q4 GDP for France, Germany, Italy and the Euro area will be released. While Q4 contraction is assured, the key question mark is whether German can rebound in Q1 and avoid a full blown recession as opposed to a “brief, technical” one, as the New Normal economic term goes.

Key macro events in the coming week:

Monday 11th February

  • Czech Republic CPI: Consensus: +2.1%, Previous: +2.4%.
  • Also interesting: US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Yellen speaks on US labor recovery. The speech could shed light on which labor market indicators the Fed will be watching in addition to its 6.5% unemployment threshold.

Tuesday 12 February

  • Indonesia Central Bank Meeting: Consensus: 5.75%, Previous: 5.75%.
  • UK CPI: Previous: +2.7% yoy.

Wednesday 13 February

  • Sweden Central Bank Meeting: Consensus 1.0%, Previous 1.0%.
  • South Korea Central Bank Meeting: Consensus: 2.75%, Previous: 2.75%.
  • US Retail Sales: Consensus +0.1%, Previous +0.5%.
  • Japan Q4 GDP: Previous: -3.5%.
  • Also interesting: Bank of England Inflation Report.

Thursday 14 February

  • Japan Central Bank Meeting: no change in the discount rate or open-ended Asset Purchase Program.
  • France Q4 GDP: Consensus: -0.2%, Previous: +0.1% qoq.
  • Germany Q4 GDP: Consensus: -0.5%, Previous: +0.2% qoq.
  • Italy Q4 GDP: Consensus: -0.6%, Previous: -0.2% qoq.
  • Euro area Q4 GDP:


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‘Sequester’ Fearmongering by Obama and Republicans

Courtesy of Mish.

Republicans don’t want military spending and Democrats don’t want cuts in social programs. The best thing to do would be doubling or tripling the cuts, but compromise tends to work in the other direction.

Thus one should not be surprised by this can-kicking idea: Republicans Propose Job Freeze to Avert Defense Cuts

Republican members of the House and Senate Armed Services committees revived a proposal to avert automatic spending cuts by reducing the federal workforce through attrition and freezing congressional salaries.

The legislation would save $85 billion through Sept. 30, the same amount as the across-the-board cuts that would be divided between defense and domestic programs, said Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. She was among lawmakers presenting the plan at a news conference Wednesday in Washington.

The automatic cuts, called sequestration, will take effect March 1 unless Congress and President Barack Obama agree on an alternative. Tuesday, Obama urged lawmakers to propose a short-term package of reductions and tax-code changes, such as limiting tax breaks, to delay the reductions.

“The president gave us a proposal that cuts defense spending once again,” Representative Howard “Buck” McKeon of California, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said at the news conference. He called Obama’s plan “irresponsible, unacceptable.”

Sequestration a Brainchild of Republicans

Excuse me for pointing out the truth: Sequestration is a brainchild of a Republican House. Instead of accepting 10-1 spending cuts to tax hikes that was on the table last year, Republicans kicked the can to 2013 believing Romney to be a shoo-in for president.

It did not work out that way, as I warned at the time. Now, Obama’s “I am willing to make hard choices” offer is off the table (assuming of course it was ever really on the table).

Now Republicans whine about the automatic spending cuts to the military that they agreed to (expecting them to go away under Romney). And in the meantime, Republicans accepted a boatload of tax hikes and got absolutely nothing in return.

Defense Cut Fearmongering

Outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stepped up to the plate, fearmongering about the defense cuts. “My fear is that there is a dangerous and callous attitude that is developing among some Republicans and some Democrats that these dangerous cuts can be allowed to


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The Impossibility Of Economic Calculation In A Fiat World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

via Alasdair Macleod, originally posted at GoldMoney.com,

The purpose of keeping accurate accounts is to quantify net worth at any given point in time – as well as the change from a prior date. It goes without saying that the measure used, money, should be constant if comparisons over time are to mean anything. Only then do prices of capital goods, consumer goods and services truly reflect their changing values, giving important signals to businessmen. With unstable fiat money market signals lose much of their meaning.

It is not normal for businessmen to fret over this. They tend to work from management accounts which are usually prepared monthly, and over that time-scale a depreciating currency is unnoticed – except in the case of monetary extremes. However, businessmen should pay attention to the problem, because the accumulation of entrepreneurial wealth is achieved over many years; its productive value can be significantly altered by fluctuations in the purchasing power of unstable money.

Governments in countries like the United Kingdom have destroyed much of their manufacturing industry through currency depreciation, while Germany contrasts with a history of engineering excellence and a firm currency. The German business owner in the post-war years had relative certainty of economic calculation, allowing him to build up his productive wealth; while the British business lobby resorted to encouraging successive governments to keep costs down by devaluing the pound, rather than investing their own resources in more efficient production.

Reducing costs by managing the currency is, to put it less politely, all about robbing the workforce of the purchasing power of its wages. But the workforce is, in economic terms, made up of individual entrepreneurs selling their skills and labour to employers. They are the unconscious victims of devaluation as indeed are small businesses, but at least in the short-term the central planners manipulating fiat money congratulate themselves that jobs have been saved.

The cost comes later, as consumers – who in turn are also entrepreneurs and savers – pay the bill through higher prices and lose on their savings through lower interest rates and monetary value. So where’s the benefit?

None. The history of nations whose governments respect sound money, such as Germany and Japan in the post-war years, has been one of persistent economic progress, despite otherwise economically incompetent governments. This…
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Zero Hedge

World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.

Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relat...



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Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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