Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still warning of a pause or correction in the market. The daily indicator continues to paint lower highs even as SPX grinds higher. There is a theme building in the Twitterverse about the correction that just won?t materialize. Many people are tweeting about technical reasons the market should fall, but also warning that price hasn?t confirmed the weak internals. The tone is mixed with frustration and boredom as traders wait for a direction. The daily indicator has kept its prints in the neutral zone (-10 to +10) for almost two weeks, which is another sign of indecision by traders.

Smoothed sentiment strengthened from low levels last week, but continues to diverge from price and is still below zero. This shows that the bears continue to outweigh the bulls, however, they are very close to being evenly matched at the moment.

SPX was turned back at Twitter resistance of 1525 last week. This highlights the negative risk/reward scenario we mentioned in our previous update. When there is strong resistance just above the market but support has multiple levels well below current prices, traders are likely to close longs or enter short positions at the resistance level.

Twitter support and resistance levels are now tightening in a range between 1500 and 1525 on SPX. There are very few tweets above or below those levels. This suggests that traders are waiting for a break from the current range before taking action. There are so many tweets mentioning 1525 that a break above it will most likely cause a short covering rally that moves quickly higher. Any weakness will most likely cause a drop to 1500.

Note: I have created a download page so readers can load the sentiment indicator into their own chart packages. It’s located here.


Note from dshort: Here is a YouTube video in which Blair gives an explanation of the indicator and examples of how he used it in his posts over the last several weeks.


For additional background information on this indicator, see Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter.

Blair Jensen at Downside Hedge tracks Twitter sentiment and provides hedging strategies for individual investors.

 

 

 

 





Message From The Dronemaster General

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

 

 

Source: NY Times





Argentina’s Financial Collapse – Past Is Prologue

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The following rather stunning documentary provides a critical insight into what Europe (and Argentina once again) could well be progressing towards. There is a reason we highlight the ‘scariest chart in Europe’ as that of youth unemployment and with the central banks printing money at ever increasing paces and the next round of global competitive devaluation beginning, the debt slaves will suffer ever more. In 2001, Argentina collapsed; after many years of apathy in the country, the insurrection exploded. As TopDocumentary notes, the spontaneous revolt of ‘faceless’ people meant saucepans were being banged in every neighborhood.

What happened to Argentina? How was it possible that in so rich a country so many people were hungry? The country had been ransacked by a new form of aggression, committed in time of peace and in a democracy. A daily and silent violence that caused greater social disruption, more emigration and death than the terrorism of the dictatorship and the Falkland Islands war.

Ever since independence, almost 200 years ago, Argentina’s foreign debt has been a source of impoverishment and corruption and the biggest scandals. Since the first loan negotiated by Rivadavia in 1824 with the British Bank Baring Brothers, the debt was used to enrich Argentinean financiers, to control the finances and empty the country of its wealth.

This foreign debt always went hand in hand with big business, and with the complicity of nearly every government, from Miter and Quintana to Menem and De la Rua. The policy of indebtedness gave rise in Argentina to generations of technocrats and bureaucrats, who favored banks and international corporations over their own country. Educated at Harvard, Chicago, Oxford or Buenos Aires, their portraits hang in the official galleries.

 





Swing trading portfolio – week of February 11th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





Almost Every Investor Has The Same Bullish Thinking

ANALYST: I Just Traveled Around The World, And Almost Every Investor Has The Same Bullish Thinking

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider

cocktail umbrella

Wikimedia Commons

These last few days notwithstanding, markets have really been on an incredible tear.

So what are real investors thinking?

Nomura's interest rate strategist George Goncalves has a great weekend note out in which he relays some observations from professional money managers, after he and his colleagues did a big global tour to kick off 2013.

Uniformly, he found that the view was this: The Fed had its hand on the till, and there was almost no way for risk assets to go down in light of the Fed stimulus. Virtually everyone was bullish. Even the bond managers aren't worried about a great-rotation inspired selloff (they're not really that worried about a shift from bonds to equities) though it is in the back of their minds.

From his note:

Great Rotation or a Great Consternation?
Many of the bond fund manager (ex-hedge funds) that we spoke with were not convinced that a "Great Rotation" was in the making and agreed with our view that there is enough cash on the sidelines to lift all asset classes on the margin so long as the Fed keeps QE alive. One account said, "If the Fed is benefiting stocks, why would that be at the expense of bonds when they are using bonds to ease." He went on to say, "If the slightly less dovish FOMC minutes released in early January were enough to spook bond investors, if the Fed ever hinted that easing is going to stop, watch out below stocks." The more I listened to their concerns and questions from a wide cross section of investors, the more I felt there is a great consternation about what keeps inflows coming into all types of investments funds.

At the end of the day it‘s all about AUM and the pie is only theoretically bigger because the Fed is retiring bonds, even if they don‘t stop perhaps there has been much ado about this great rotation and instead cash will be…
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Guest Post: Note To Fed: Giving The Banks Free Money Won’t Make Us Hire More Workers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Lowering interest rate and making credit abundant doesn't make employers hire more workers.

 
The Federal Reserve's policy of targeting unemployment is based on a curious faith that low interest rates and lots of liquidity sloshing around the bank system with magically lead employers to hire more workers. I say this is a curious faith because it makes no sense. In effect, the Fed policy is based on the implicit assumption that the only thing holding entrepreneurs and employers back from hiring is the cost and availability of credit.
 
But as anyone in the actual position of hiring more staff knows, it is not a lack of cheap credit that makes adding workers unattractive, it is the lack of opportunities to increase profit margins by adding more workers.
 
If the economic boom of the mid-1980s proves anything, it is that the cost of credit can be very high but that in itself does not restrain real growth. What restrains growth is not interest rates, it is opportunities to profitably expand operations.
 
What the Fed cannot dare admit is that in a crony-capitalist, globalized, State/cartel-dominated economy, there are few profitable opportunities, regardless of the cost of credit. Yes, there is a natural-gas boom in the Dakotas, but outside of energy plays the harsh reality is that the only way for most businesses to increase profits is reduce labor, not hire more workers.
 
The second survival tactic is to lower labor costs by recycling full-time, full benefits jobs into part-time or lower-paid jobs. Rather than pay insanely high healthcare premiums on full-time jobs, businesses lay off full-benefit workers and replace them with a mix of part-time workers who receive no benefits or contract workers who handle their own healthcare costs.
 


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Russia Flips Petrodollar On Its Head By Exporting Crude, Buying Record Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

China has been a very active purchaser of gold for its reserves in the last few years, as we extensively covered here and here, but another nation has taken over the ‘biggest buyer’ role (for the same reasons as China).

 

Central banks around the world have printed money to escape the global financial crisis, and as Bloomberg reports, IMF data shows Russia added 570 metric tons in the past decade. Putin’s fears that “the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly,” are clearly being taken seriously as the world’s largest oil producer turns black gold into hard assets. A lawmaker in Putin’s party noted, “the more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there’s a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound or any other reserve currency.”

Putin’s gold strategy fits in with his resource nationalism, statist agenda, as Bloomberg notes when Russia defaulted in 1998 it took 28 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold, was 11.5 barrels when Putin came to power and when in 2005 it had fallen to 6.5 barrels (less than half what it is now), he went all in, telling the central bank to buy.

Russia has gone through bouts of hoarding before – from 1867′s Tsar Alexander II to Lenin, for now, with more than five years left in Putin’s term, Russia plans to keep on buying – “The pace will be determined by the market,” First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 25. “Whether to speed that up or slow it down is a market decision and I’m not going to discuss it.”

 

 

Via Bloomberg,

Putin Turns Black Gold Into Bullion as Russia Out-Buys World

 

When Vladimir Putin says the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he’s not just talking. He’s betting on it.

 

Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also


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Key Events In The Coming Week And Complete February European Calendar

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With China offline celebrating its New Year, and potentially mobilizing forces in (not so) secret, and not much on the global event docket, the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers meeting in Moscow at the end of the week will be the key event for FX markets, which these days define every other aspect of risk. It should surprise nobody the last couple of weeks have seen increased attention on exchange rates and the frequent use of the “currency war” label by policymakers in many countries. No news announcements are expected at the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the formal announcement of a 2% inflation target and an open-ended asset purchase program.

On the data side, US retail sales on Wednesday will provide an important signal about the strength of the US consumer following the largest tax increase in decades. Although January auto and same store sales data was reasonably solid, new taxes will soon begin to weigh on spending. Also on Wednesday, Japan Q4 GDP will be released. On Thursday, Q4 GDP for France, Germany, Italy and the Euro area will be released. While Q4 contraction is assured, the key question mark is whether German can rebound in Q1 and avoid a full blown recession as opposed to a “brief, technical” one, as the New Normal economic term goes.

Key macro events in the coming week:

Monday 11th February

  • Czech Republic CPI: Consensus: +2.1%, Previous: +2.4%.
  • Also interesting: US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Yellen speaks on US labor recovery. The speech could shed light on which labor market indicators the Fed will be watching in addition to its 6.5% unemployment threshold.

Tuesday 12 February

  • Indonesia Central Bank Meeting: Consensus: 5.75%, Previous: 5.75%.
  • UK CPI: Previous: +2.7% yoy.

Wednesday 13 February

  • Sweden Central Bank Meeting: Consensus 1.0%, Previous 1.0%.
  • South Korea Central Bank Meeting: Consensus: 2.75%, Previous: 2.75%.
  • US Retail Sales: Consensus +0.1%, Previous +0.5%.
  • Japan Q4 GDP: Previous: -3.5%.
  • Also interesting: Bank of England Inflation Report.

Thursday 14 February

  • Japan Central Bank Meeting: no change in the discount rate or open-ended Asset Purchase Program.
  • France Q4 GDP: Consensus: -0.2%, Previous: +0.1% qoq.
  • Germany Q4 GDP: Consensus: -0.5%, Previous: +0.2% qoq.
  • Italy Q4 GDP: Consensus: -0.6%, Previous: -0.2% qoq.
  • Euro area Q4 GDP:


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‘Sequester’ Fearmongering by Obama and Republicans

Courtesy of Mish.

Republicans don’t want military spending and Democrats don’t want cuts in social programs. The best thing to do would be doubling or tripling the cuts, but compromise tends to work in the other direction.

Thus one should not be surprised by this can-kicking idea: Republicans Propose Job Freeze to Avert Defense Cuts

Republican members of the House and Senate Armed Services committees revived a proposal to avert automatic spending cuts by reducing the federal workforce through attrition and freezing congressional salaries.

The legislation would save $85 billion through Sept. 30, the same amount as the across-the-board cuts that would be divided between defense and domestic programs, said Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. She was among lawmakers presenting the plan at a news conference Wednesday in Washington.

The automatic cuts, called sequestration, will take effect March 1 unless Congress and President Barack Obama agree on an alternative. Tuesday, Obama urged lawmakers to propose a short-term package of reductions and tax-code changes, such as limiting tax breaks, to delay the reductions.

“The president gave us a proposal that cuts defense spending once again,” Representative Howard “Buck” McKeon of California, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said at the news conference. He called Obama’s plan “irresponsible, unacceptable.”

Sequestration a Brainchild of Republicans

Excuse me for pointing out the truth: Sequestration is a brainchild of a Republican House. Instead of accepting 10-1 spending cuts to tax hikes that was on the table last year, Republicans kicked the can to 2013 believing Romney to be a shoo-in for president.

It did not work out that way, as I warned at the time. Now, Obama’s “I am willing to make hard choices” offer is off the table (assuming of course it was ever really on the table).

Now Republicans whine about the automatic spending cuts to the military that they agreed to (expecting them to go away under Romney). And in the meantime, Republicans accepted a boatload of tax hikes and got absolutely nothing in return.

Defense Cut Fearmongering

Outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stepped up to the plate, fearmongering about the defense cuts. “My fear is that there is a dangerous and callous attitude that is developing among some Republicans and some Democrats that these dangerous cuts can be allowed to


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The Impossibility Of Economic Calculation In A Fiat World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

via Alasdair Macleod, originally posted at GoldMoney.com,

The purpose of keeping accurate accounts is to quantify net worth at any given point in time – as well as the change from a prior date. It goes without saying that the measure used, money, should be constant if comparisons over time are to mean anything. Only then do prices of capital goods, consumer goods and services truly reflect their changing values, giving important signals to businessmen. With unstable fiat money market signals lose much of their meaning.

It is not normal for businessmen to fret over this. They tend to work from management accounts which are usually prepared monthly, and over that time-scale a depreciating currency is unnoticed – except in the case of monetary extremes. However, businessmen should pay attention to the problem, because the accumulation of entrepreneurial wealth is achieved over many years; its productive value can be significantly altered by fluctuations in the purchasing power of unstable money.

Governments in countries like the United Kingdom have destroyed much of their manufacturing industry through currency depreciation, while Germany contrasts with a history of engineering excellence and a firm currency. The German business owner in the post-war years had relative certainty of economic calculation, allowing him to build up his productive wealth; while the British business lobby resorted to encouraging successive governments to keep costs down by devaluing the pound, rather than investing their own resources in more efficient production.

Reducing costs by managing the currency is, to put it less politely, all about robbing the workforce of the purchasing power of its wages. But the workforce is, in economic terms, made up of individual entrepreneurs selling their skills and labour to employers. They are the unconscious victims of devaluation as indeed are small businesses, but at least in the short-term the central planners manipulating fiat money congratulate themselves that jobs have been saved.

The cost comes later, as consumers – who in turn are also entrepreneurs and savers – pay the bill through higher prices and lose on their savings through lower interest rates and monetary value. So where’s the benefit?

None. The history of nations whose governments respect sound money, such as Germany and Japan in the post-war years, has been one of persistent economic progress, despite otherwise economically incompetent governments. This…
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Zero Hedge

Bloomberg System Goes Down Ahead Of US Open

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For the second time in a few months, the Bloomberg Terminal system appears to be down and is causing panic across Wall Street ahead of the US market open...

Traders are not happy...

When Bloomberg panels go down 8 minutes before the open...... pic.twitter.com/pqoQoyoBHj

— NOD (@NOD008) January 17, 2019 ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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