Archive for 2013

Swing trading portfolio – week of March 4th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





What Happens If “Whatever It Takes” Is Not Enough?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Since promises are as good as gold (or better apparently) for the world’s central bankers, the BoJ’s new man Kuroda dropped those three little words that worked so wonderfully for Draghi back in July. At 1943ET, Kuroda told the world he would do “whatever it takes” to rid his nation of the ravages of deflation. However, unlike the 200 pip rally in EURUSD that Mr. Draghi’s soothing words created (and a risk on rally that last for months); it appears the world’s investors are a little tired of that ol’ chestnut. Since Kuroda opened his mouth and kept promising moar and moar (open-ended buying of longer-dated bonds), the Nikkei has dropped over 100 points and USDJPY has strengthened 60 pips and rising. The question now becomes, what happens if ‘whatever it takes’ is not enough? Meanwhile the JPY strength is wreaking mild havoc with US equity futures which have dropped 6 points from Friday’s close.

 

When Draghi spoke the magic words…

 

When Kuroda tried it…

 

 

Gold and Silver are giving back earlier gains…

 

and US equity futures are sliding (now below Friday’s closing VWAP)…

 

Perhaps this is what Kuroda needs to do… “I would do anything for [inflation]“

… but I won’t do that…

Charts: Bloomberg





Forget Bond Vigilantes, Oakland Residents Now Policing Themselves

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

“Wanted” Signs Emerge in Oakland as Residents Police Themselves

So this is what is happening in Oakland, one of the many forgotten about, left-behind corners of America.  From CBS:

OAKLAND (KPIX 5) – Oakland’s crime problems have gotten so bad that some people aren’t even bothering to call the cops anymore; instead, they’re trying to solve and prevent crimes themselves.

In a neighborhood that has started to feel like the wild west, people have even started posting “wanted” signs.

Personally, I think this is the only “Wanted” sign that people should be putting up all over America.

Bernank Wanted Sign

 

You have to walk around in your house with a gun to feel safe here,” said Alaska Tarvins of the Arcadia Park Board of Directors.

Over the weekend, one home was burglarized twice in a 24 hour period, once while a resident’s nephew was inside.

Now, Arcadia park neighbors are taking the detective work into their own hands.

KPIX 5 found a woman who identified herself as L.E. patrolling her neighborhood by car. She said she recently chased down a couple of robbers herself.

While the macro problems that have led to this are deplorable, there is one silver lining.  The crime crisis is forcing neighbors to get to know each other and come to solutions on their own within their community.  Since we all know by now the bureaucracy will not be coming to the rescue, the sooner we figure out solutions on our own the better.

Welcome to the recovery!

Full article here.





Japan Central Bank Nominee Pledges to Do Whatever Needed to Combat Deflation; Mother of all Pyrrhic Victories

Courtesy of Mish.

Those who thought Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was not serious in his pledge to defeat deflation (and destroy the Yen in the process) need think again.

Haruhiko Kuroda (Abe’s nominee to head Japan’s central bank) pledges to do Whatever Needed to Combat Japan Deflation.

Haruhiko Kuroda, nominated to be the next Bank of Japan governor, said that a central bank under his leadership would do whatever is needed to combat 15 years of deflation.

“I would like to make my stance clear that we will do whatever we can do,” Kuroda, the president of the Asian Development Bank, said in a confirmation hearing in the parliament in Tokyo today.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s nomination of Kuroda has raised expectations for more aggressive monetary easing to revive the world’s third-biggest economy after Masaaki Shirakawa exits the job on March 19. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan, the largest party in the upper house, has signaled it will back Kuroda, easing his passage through a split parliament.

Kuroda said in an interview this month that falling prices exacerbate real debt burdens, and give an incentive to companies and households to postpone spending. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent in January. The price gauge hasn’t advanced 2 percent — the central bank’s new target — for any year since 1997, when a national sales tax was increased.

Mother of all Pyrrhic Victories

Any country determined to wreck its currency can indeed do just that. However, QE alone will not suffice if all the printed money sits as excess reserves. If QE fails, what’s next? More bridges to nowhere?

Regardless, the idea that higher prices are a blessing is blatant stupidity. The last thing aging Japan citizens need is rising prices.

If anything, low interest rates are counterproductive because Japanese savers get zero % on their savings (having less interest income to spend). Sound familiar? It should because Bernanke has the same preposterous ideas.

Once sentiment turns (and it will – but I do not know when), Japan is going to have a hard time preventing the bottom from falling out of the yen. When that happens, the defeat of deflation is going to be the mother of all Pyrrhic victories.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 



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Name That Market? +8.6% Average Annual Return Over 33 Years, Worst Drawdown -4%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

‘Buy-and-Hold’; Bonds-Schmonds. Sometimes a longer-term perspective is useful for context. Whether you are a safety-seeking, “some-return-is-better-than-no-return” bond-holder; or a “Jim Cramer said ‘all clear’ so I’m nuts deep in stocks” wannabe trader; the charts below at least provide from insight into why all that ‘crazy’ money might prefer the bond market to the stock market. Since rear-view-mirror investing appears the meme of the moment (and hope is now a strategy), it makes one wonder, when fixed income returns average 8.6% per annum for 33 years with a maximum 4% drawdown annually as opposed to stocks with a 8.9% per annum return and four 10%-plus annual drawdowns (and two 50% intra-period collapses within a decade). While we hold no judgment here, arguing that rates are so low they can’t go any further is futile (ask Ben and see Japan) and applies just as well to equity multiples, margin expectations, and fundamentals. Context is king, be informed.

 

Fixed Income… Slow and steady wins the race (for now)

 

Equities… Better Returns but the pain…

 

Fundamentals… not pretty – as a reminder RED is not good…


 

Charts: Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley





Good Italy, Bad Italy, ‘Girlfriend-In-A-Coma’ Italy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“Imagine you have a girlfriend; and she is Italy. You love her dearly, but she is in a coma. She has been sick for a long, long time.” Former Economist Editor Bill Emmott’s expansive BBC documentary asks where has Italy gone wrong and examines (deep down inside) the good sides about the country as well as the disasters. With the next few weeks/months dominated by talking heads claiming to be experts on Italy, Italian politics, and Italian society; perhaps spending a few minutes on a Sunday night learning as opposed to guessing which blond will pick which buff young man in a reality show (or who Trump will fire) is time well spent (with a big glass of Chianti obviously).

 





This Time It’s The Same – And That’s Not Good

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There has been much discussion by the mainstream media of the rise in gas prices since we initially showed the equity market’s dependence (or transitory correlation if you are a Keynesian) on this consumer-crushing unintended consequence of the new normal liquification of our economy. However, while most have focused on the absolute levels (as we noted the $3.75-80 Regular appears to be a limiter in recent years), over time this has not been the case. The stagnation of average hourly earnings combined with the price of gas shows why the last two years have not had the consumer-driven surge of the initial 2009 lurch (or the pre-crisis economy). We are trapped in an era when the average hourly wage buys a de minimus amount of energy and just as we saw heading into 2008, this relative price surge is occurring just as the macro-economic data itself is rolling over. This time it’s the same – a double-dip in macro surprises driven by relative gas prices.

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg





The Science Delusion – Reexamining our Worldview Mindset

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Cognitive Dissonance.

The Science Delusion – Reexamining our Worldview Mindset

By

Cognitive Dissonance

 

If you are anywhere near a window or door why don’t you stop reading right now, get up, walk over and take five or ten seconds to look outside and absorb what you see. Hell, if that’s asking too much of you then just imagine what you would see if you were to look out your window. Go ahead and take a few seconds. I’ll wait.

Regardless of whether your (imagined) view outside was of lawn, woods, mountains, animals or other humans, homes or out buildings, a road or highway, tall office buildings or even skyscrapers, if I were to ask you to describe in detail what you (thought you) saw, what you (thought you) perceived, everyone would pretty much describe it using similar words, phrases, subtext and connotation.

This is because even though we all saw different things, we all employ pretty much the same basis of understanding or belief in how our natural world works and functions, of what ‘it’ is that we think we actually see. In short, we see, perceive and thereby ‘know’ through the (distorting) lens of our worldview and the individual/collective mindset that forms that point of view.

This in turn determines how we perceive, then interpret and finally describe what we see. Contrary to common belief we do not simply ‘see’ what is there. No one sees and perceives everything exactly the same way as anyone else and I’m not just talking about differences in visible color, clarity or contrast nor just through the distortion provided by a political or religious frame of reference.

Our mindset (selectively) interprets what our senses receive based upon our preconceived notions and beliefs. In short, all that we ‘see’ and perceive in every form is run through our worldview mindset for identification, interpretation and then integration. This means that there is great latitude for error when our mindset has
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Did JPM’s CIO Intentionally Start The Margin Call Avalanche That Crushed Lehman?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It is conventional wisdom that in the days leading to Lehman’s bankruptcy filing on the night of September 15, 2008, sheer panic and utter confusion ruled ever back- and middle-office, over concerns that a counterparty, any counterparty, but especially Lehman, would end up being “not money good“, and the result was that trigger-happy margin clerks had the potential to make or break a company, by demanding just enough variation margin that would send the notice recipient promptly into bankruptcy. It is also conventional wisdom, that it was precisely several such margin calls mostly out of JPMorgan that precipitated the Chapter 7 filing by Lehman brothers, as the firm was finally unable to mask the fact that it was terminally overlevered, and even more terminally illiquid. It is certainly conventional wisdom, that Lehman was certainly massively overlevered, holding billions of overmarked CMBS on its balance sheet, and was doing everything in its power to hold on to precious liquidity, taking every opportunity to window dress its balance sheet as far better than it truly was (Repo 105 at the end of every quarter promptly comes to mind), over fears of avoiding precisely such a margin call onslaught, where the first margin call would cascade into many, likely lethal, margin calls.

Which is why, over four years after the filing of Lehman’s bankruptcy and the fight for who was responsible for what in the Lehman Chapter 7 saga still waging, most actively between the Lehman creditor estate and tri-party repo stalwart JP Morgan, we were not surprised to learn that the Lehman estate had attempted to force yet another sworn testimony from a (former) employee of JP Morgan, in hopes of catching the firm as engaging in a malicious act of defrauding Lehman of precious liquidity in its final hours, or said in layman’s terms, forcing it to liquidate.

What did catch our attention was that Lehman named the infamous JPM Chief Investment Office, and specifically its very infamous trader Bruno Iksil, accountable along with others for the London Whale fiasco, as the person responsible for an initial margin call to the tune of $273.3 million, made the same day “that JPMorgan made its first of two demands that week each for $5 billion of extra cash collateral that it had no right to…
continue reading





Did JPM’s CIO Intentionally And Maliciously Start The Margin Call Avalanche That Crushed Lehman?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It is conventional wisdom that in the days leading to Lehman’s bankruptcy filing on the night of September 15, 2008, sheer panic and utter confusion ruled ever back- and middle-office, over concerns that a counterparty, any counterparty, but especially Lehman, would end up being “not money good“, and the result was that trigger-happy margin clerks had the potential to make or break a company, by demanding just enough variation margin that would send the notice recipient promptly into bankruptcy. It is also conventional wisdom, that it was precisely several such margin calls mostly out of JPMorgan that precipitated the Chapter 7 filing by Lehman brothers, as the firm was finally unable to mask the fact that it was terminally overlevered, and even more terminally illiquid. It is certainly conventional wisdom, that Lehman was certainly massively overlevered, holding billions of overmarked CMBS on its balance sheet, and was doing everything in its power to hold on to precious liquidity, taking every opportunity to window dress its balance sheet as far better than it truly was (Repo 105 at the end of every quarter promptly comes to mind), over fears of avoiding precisely such a margin call onslaught, where the first margin call would cascade into many, likely lethal, margin calls.

Which is why, over four years after the filing of Lehman’s bankruptcy and the fight for who was responsible for what in the Lehman Chapter 7 saga still waging, most actively between the Lehman creditor estate and tri-party repo stalwart JP Morgan, we were not surprised to learn that the Lehman estate had attempted to force yet another sworn testimony from a (former) employee of JP Morgan, in hopes of catching the firm as engaging in a malicious act of defrauding Lehman of precious liquidity in its final hours, or said in layman’s terms, forcing it to liquidate.

What did catch our attention was that Lehman named the infamous JPM Chief Investment Office, and specifically its very infamous trader Bruno Iksil, accountable along with others for the London Whale fiasco, as the person responsible for an initial margin call to the tune of $273.3 million, made the same day “that JPMorgan made its first of two demands that week each for $5 billion of extra cash collateral that it had no right to…
continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Brexit identities: how Leave versus Remain replaced Conservative versus Labour affiliations of British voters

 

Brexit identities: how Leave versus Remain replaced Conservative versus Labour affiliations of British voters

Courtesy of Geoffrey Evans, University of Oxford and Florian Schaffner, University of Oxford

British politics was relatively stable in the post-war decades, and voters’ strong party loyalties were influenced by their place in society. More recently, there has been a marked decline in the number of people identifying with a political party, and in the strength of that attachment.

Now, our new research for a repor...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Jump On Kudlow Denial: "There Is No Cancellation. None. Zero."

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

"There are no cancellations. None. Zero. Let's put that to rest."

Hours after a headline from the FT about the US cancelling a round of trade talks with two senior Chinese ministers send stocks reeling to their lows of the day, the administration has dispatched Larry Kudlow (who apparently had to wait until 20 mins before the close thanks to CNBC's wall-to-wall Davos coverage) to jawbone the markets back into the green by...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P and Crude both testing key breakout levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The correlation between Crude Oil and the S&P 500 has been rather high over the last 100-days, as each looks to have peaked at the same time around the 1st of October at (1).

After peaking together in October, Crude fell over 40% and the S&P nearly declined 20%, with both bottoming on Christmas Eve at each (2).

Both have experienced counter-trend rallies since the lows, as Crude is up 23% and the S&P 13%.

These rallies have both testing dual resist...



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Insider Scoop

Cowen Suits Up With Nike, Looks To Outperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NKE Consumer Discretionary Q4 Earnings: U.S. Consumer Appears Strong Amid Heightened Global Uncertainty Golf Equipmen...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 20, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

After entering the week quite overbought, indexes took a small retreat Monday before hurling back upwards.  This is typical of the “V” shaped moves up after any significant selloff, we’ve seen most of the past decade and watching them unfurl is quite amazing actually.  Thought maybe this time would be “different” but not so much.  So two week’s ago we asked “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problem in 1 speech?” – and thus far the market has answered resoundingly yes.  The word of the year thus far in 2019 is “patience” as that simple insert into a speech change the whole complexion of everything.

China has also been busy stimulating; on Tuesday:

An announcement from the People’s Bank of China that ...



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ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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