Archive for 2013

Russia Sending Permanent Warship Fleet To The Mediterranean: Is A Russian Naval Base In Cyprus Coming Next?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

That Russia has previously threatened, and followed through with, sending ships to the Mediterranean is nothing new. In the past, every such episode was related to the protection of what Putin considered vital geopolitical interests in the region: whether defending the Syrian port of Tartus, various crude and natural gas pipelines in the region threatened by NATO expansion in Turkey, or offsetting heightened US presence around Gaza and Israel (and of course Iran). Which is why with the legacy conflicts in the region dormant, and the only news of any relevance being the European intervention in Cyprus against Russian oligarch interests, it is surprising we learn today that the Russian Navy will dispatch a permanent fleet of five or six combat ships to the Mediterranean Sea, with frigates and cruisers making up the core of the fleet.

How far into the Mediterranean one wonders? It wouldn’t be too difficult to put two and two together and assume that with Cyprus just a few hundreds kilometers away from Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Israel, Russia may have not only a new geopolitical target, namely the now pseudo-insolvent Russian protectorate of Cyprus, but a perfect alibi to be in the region as well, and more importantly, have a Plan B to the Syrian port of Tartus which is Russia’s only naval base in the region.

How soon until we read that Russia is willing to invest even more unguaranteed loans into the Cypriot financial system…. in exchange for one tiny little naval and/or military base?

From RT:

“Up to five or six ships must be on a permanent basis in the Mediterranean Sea. They should be controlled through the command of the Black Sea Fleet,” Russian TV channel Zvezda quoted Admiral Chirkov as saying.

 

Supply vessels will also be included in the permanent deployment to the Mediterranean.

 

The decision to send Russian ships to the Mediterranean’s waters was first announced on March 11 by Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu.

 

“I think that we have everything to create and maintain such a grouping. Certainly, this shows the positive dynamics of development of the Navy,” Shoigu told top officers of the Russian Armed Forces. By 2020, the Russian Navy will include eight missile submarines, 16


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Regression to Trend: Debunking the Alternate CPI

Courtesy of Doug Short.

For the past few years I have been updating four market valuation indicators on a monthly basis, one of which is a regression to trend of the S&P Composite, available here. The chart that illustrates the historic pattern of oscillation above and below the regression trendline is based on the inflation-adjusted spliced S&P index popularized by Yale Professor Robert Shiller and now widely used as a long-term gauge of US equities. The inflation adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index, which dates from 1913, and the earlier Warren and Pearson’s price index for the earlier years.

Here is the latest version.

 

 

Occasionally in the past I’ve included a curious version of this data series, one that is adjusted with the Alternate CPI published monthly by John Williams at his Shadowstats.com website. I received yesterday from reader Mike to update Shadowstats deflated version of the regression chart. Mike explained that his curiosity was triggered by one of John Mauldin’s Outside the Box guest commentaries with the provocative title Is The Government Lying To Us About Inflation? Yes! (a commentary we reprinted here).

In response to Mike’s request, I’ve updated the chart in question.

 

 

This Alternate version of the regression analysis suggests that today’s market is radically undervalued, comparable to the levels in 1949 and 1982. My view, of course, is that this perspective is complete nonsense. It is based on an argument that inflation has, for example, averaged 9.5% per year since the turn of the century versus the Consumer Price Index annualized average of 2.7%. The official government series would put the cost of living up 37.9% since New Year’s Eve of 1999. The Shadowstats Alternate CPI puts the increase over six times higher at 234.2%.

On a personal note, my wife and I raised a family during the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. The annual average was 8.8% from…
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Stolpered Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Four months after we made our call to short the living daylights out of Cable following the announcement that Goldman’s Mark Carney is coming and is getting ready to crucify the BOE’s balance sheet….

….we were confused: +1400 pips in our favor (as the GBPUSD tumbled from 1.6250 to 1.4850), it appeared the profit bonanza would never end, yet we didn’t want to get too greedy. And then came none other than the most invaluable analyst on Wall Street, Goldman’s Tom Stolper, who made our decision for us.

Last Monday, the man who bats between 0.000 and 0.050, boldly went where he had been so many times before, and said to go long EURGBP on “monetary policy and current account differentials” with a stop loss of 85.70. Naturally, we read between the lines.

To wit: “the logical Stolper-contrarians in us say this is precisely the time to fade the relentless move higher in the EURGBP: history is on our side about 93% of the time. After all, Goldman’s prop flow desk is now selling the pair to its clients. This is even as we said to short the GBP with both hands and feet in late November when Carney’s appointment was announced: a move that has resulted in nearly a +1400 pip gain in the GBPUSD short. Oh well, time to take profits.”

Sure enough, as of this posting, EURGBP is now 85.38, well below the designated stop loss, and over 200 pips in favor of those who, as usual, faded perhaps the worst FX “strategist” of all time. Which, incidentally, is why Stolper may well be the most valuable of his breed on Wall Street: rarely has there been man whose calls have made so much money for so many.

Once again: thank you Goldman for doing all you can to crucify what little paying muppets are left, and for facilitating a quick and painless pick of 1,600 pips in four months.





S&P Futures Plunge To 1-Week Lows; Gold Jumps To 3-Week Highs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Given FX markets are double-dipping now, it is little surprise that S&P 500 futures open down 16 points from the 1553.5 close on Friday – a one-week low. This is the biggest close-to-open gap down since May 2012. Treasury Futures just opened implying a 1.94% 10Y (-5bps) and 3.16% 30Y (-5bps). And despite the USD strength, spot gold just opened also up from $1591.95 to $1607. The arb against JPY carry is holding stocks for now… only another 8 hours until Europe opens… Over 38,000 contracts have traded in S&P 500 futures in the first 5 minutes ($2.9bn notional) – 30 times the average for a Sunday night… The initial dump was caught by a VWAP reverter but that is fading now… Japan’s NKY looks set to open down around 500 points or so given JPY’s strength.

 

 

The biggest Close to Open gap in 10 months…

 

Initial massive volume dump for a Sunday night, VWAP algos revert and now fading again…

 

Stocks open down to EURJPY, bounce a little on the catch up from carry…

 

Gold holding above $1605…

 

Treasuries…

 

and for now it looks like Japan’s Nikkei 225 will open -500 points or so at around 12,000…

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg





S&P Futures Open At One-Week Lows; Gold Breaks Above $1605

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Given FX markets are double-dipping now, it is little surprise that S&P 500 futures open down 16 points from the 1553.5 close on Friday – a one-week low (implying around a 1.96% yield on the 10Y). And despite the USD strength, spot gold just opened also up from $1591.95 to $1607. The arb against JPY carry is holding stocks for now… only another 8 hours until Europe opens… Over 38,000 contracts have traded in S&P 500 futures in the first 5 minutes ($2.9bn notional) – 30 times the average for a Sunday night… The initial dump was caught by a VWAP reverter but that is fading now…

 

 

Initial massive volume dump for a Sunday night, VWAP algos revert and now fading again…

 

Stocks open down to EURJPY, bounce a little on the catch up from carry…

 

Gold holding above $1605…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Angela “It’s What’s Right” Merkel Parody Paraded In Greece

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following Angela Merkel’s address to her people this evening, explaining, anyone having their money in Cypriot banks must contribute in the Cypriot bailout. That way those responsible will contribute in it, not only the taxpayers of other countries, and that’s what is right,” we thought it ironic that the people of Greece envisioned her in a slightly different light today during a parade in Patras. ‘Union’? No tension here at all…

 

(h/t @tottensniper)

 

or this from Cyprus

(h/t @frankmanktank)





“You’re nuts to Average Down”

“You’re nuts to Average Down”

By Paul Price

Averaging down on your holdings means buying more of a stock that has already declined in price since you selected it to go up. A quick search of internet investment advice turns up dozens of stories with headlines like these…

Don't Average Down    -  quotes

Conventional wisdom says that the very fact that a stock went down means your investment theory must have been wrong. How silly is that idea? For me, if I liked it at $40 I’m going to love it at $30 unless something changed radically, and permanently, for the worse. Still, I put my idea to an impartial screen to see if I was simply deluding myself.

I went back and checked the 2012 highs and subsequent 2012 lows for all thirty Dow Jones Industrial stocks. Then I noted what they’ve done since hitting those lows (through Mar. 15, 2013). 

There were some obvious takeaways once my chart was completed.

During the year, 100% of the DJIA companies traded below their annual peaks. The intra-year declines ranged from as little as 5.8% (JNJ) to as great as 62.2% (HPQ). 30 out of 30 closed last week above their 2012 nadirs. 

The biggest recovery came in last year’s biggest dog. Other large percentage rebounds occurred in lower quality BAC, old-tech companies (CSCO & IBM) and the controversial bank JPM. While those stocks were ‘falling knives,’ the old adages about never averaging down were certainly quoted numerous times. Adhering to that advice was a hedge against prosperity. 

Averaging Down DJIA Chart

The DJ Industrials are all substantial companies even if a few are not what they used to be. None of them were likely to disappear anytime soon. The best opportunities for making good money came in buying the shares that had gone down the most. Many of the more conservative stocks didn’t fall as hard, nor did they rebound as well as the worst-thought-of names. 

No matter which Dow stocks you picked when they were down-and-out, you’d be sitting on paper gains right now. Zero percent of the ‘avoid at all cost’ stocks are lower now than they were at their 2012 bottoms. 

Ignoring the doom and gloom crowd, and buying what was cheap, worked much better than sticking with currently popular names.

The next time you hear someone telling people to avoid averaging down refer them back to this article. Facts trump platitudes every time. 





Europe Scrambling with Last Minute Revision to Cyprus Deposit Confiscation Plan

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If initially Europe came out as utterly deranged in its Cyprus deposit-confiscation scheme, at least it was consistent. Now, it appears that Europe is desperate to appear not only completely incompetent but also unable to even make a simple decision and stick with it, following news from both the WSJ and the FT that the original confiscation thresholds of 6.75% and 9.9% for deposits below and over €100,000 is about to be revised.

From the FT: "a revised deal being discussed in Nicosia, with the blessing of the European Commission, would shift more of the burden on to deposits larger than €100,000, according to officials involved in the talks. Under a controversial deal struck with international bailout lenders in the early hours on Saturday, a 6.75 per cent levy would be imposed on all deposits under €100,000 while accounts over that threshold would be hit with a 9.9 per cent levy. The depositor levy was demanded by a German-led group of creditor countries to bring down the bailout’s price tag from €17bn…. Officials involved in last night’s talks said the changes in the levy’s rates were in flux, but they could see the higher rate increase to as much as 12.5 per cent while the smaller deposits could be about 3.5 per cent."

Elsewhere, according to the WSJ, the deposit "tax" would be under 5% for deposits under €100K, under 10% for deposits between €100 and €500K, and over 13% for deposits greater than half a million.

While this idiotic last minute revision will only infuriate Russian oligarchs even more, it will achieve absolutely nothing to streamline the passage of the bill through Cyprus parliament where it appears to have hung without enough support: the damage has already been done, and it is a virtual guarantee that Cyprus banks will suffer a full blown bank run the second banks reopen, which may be Tuesday, Wednesday, or never, at the current pace. That line around the block at your local neighborhood Nicosia ATM: that is not, and will not, be for people seeking to make a deposit, that much we can guarantee, no matter what the final confiscation percentage is.

What is worse, however, is the painful demonstration of the absolutely and completely arbitrary decision-making process out of Europe. Sure: the ECB and…
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Guest Post: Why Europe Is Still In Peril, In Two Charts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

A lot of analysts, including myself, have given the European situation a rest since last year. There were certainly some signs that the ECB and IMF had slowed (if not stopped) the deterioration by providing liquidity backstops to the addled banking system. But perhaps that was just the calm before the storm.

In truth, things were still probably just as perilous as ever up until yesterday when the ECB and IMF decided to start a banking panic by enforcing a haircut of up to 10% on bank depositors. That was literally the stupidest thing that anyone has done since the Euro crisis began, and while it may not lead to utter disaster, there is a significant chance that it will. Not only is it excruciatingly unjust (it’s theft!), it is also incredibly suicidal. Many, many Spaniards, Italians, Greeks and Portuguese will have looked at the Cyprus haircut in horror, and wondered “Am I next?” Some of those will withdraw their money from the bank and stuff it in a mattress or into tangible assets, furthering stressing the already-fragile and highly-leveraged European banking system.

The background to this is soaring European unemployment:

EuroUnemployment

The people running the European financial system and engineering the bailouts and austerity (ECB, EU, IMF, Germany) have ploughed on through with more and deeper austerity even as European countries (other, of course, than Germany) have run up to higher and higher unemployment levels. Spain and Greece are above 25%. Italy is above 10%, and Portugal above 15%. Hiking taxes and cutting spending is leading to more and more people in unemployment oblivion. That isn’t healthy. Let’s not forget what happened to Germany the last time when over 25% of its people found themselves unemployed:

Chart-German-Unemployment-and-Nazi-Links

If bank runs materialise across Europe next week, the unemployment situation is most likely to worsen even further. If that happens, expect more and more unemployed, underemployed and angry Europeans to start voting for increasingly radical political parties. This is suicidal. Europe needs to not only reverse the awful, stupid Cypriot haircut, but also to put fiscal consolidation on hold (it has, lest we forget, so far been counterproductive) and start worrying about unemployment levels.





German Commerzbank Suggests Wealth Tax In Italy Next

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While some argue that Cyprus was “one of the biggest money-washing machines for Russian criminals,” and others that Cyprus ex-Pat community and energy resources brough deposits (not to say their high deposit interest rates), it seems the European Union (IMF et al.) have decided that the route to crisis stabilization, just as we outlined here over a year ago and updated here, is through a wealth tax.

However, as Handelsblatt reports, the gross distortions of wealth distribution among both core and peripheral nations (evident in the chasm between ‘mean’ and ‘median’ net assets – or wealth) makes some nations more ‘capable’ of ‘giving’ and as Commerzbank’s chief economist notes, median wealth in Italy is EUR164,000 (as opposed to Austria’s median of around EUR76,000 and mean of around EUR265,000) meaning that in theory Italy has no debt crisis (with net assets at 173% of GDP) – significantly more than the Germans at 124% – “so it would make sense, in Italy a one-time property tax levy,” he suggested.

A tax rate of 15% on financial assets would probably be enough to push the Italian government debt to below the critical level of 100% of gross domestic product.” So there you have it, the ‘new deal’ in Europe, as we warned, is ‘wealth taxes’ and testing the “capacity of Cypriots” appears to be the strawman on what the public will take before social unrest becomes intolerable.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

More Firms Go Uncovered As MiFid II Decimates Ranks Of Sell-Side Analysts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Sell-side analysis was never perfect.

Banks' competition for lucrative deal flow has always ensured that the "Chinese wall" that's supposed to exist between the front office and research department is about as impenetrable as a sieve. And then there's the overpowering pressure for analysts to conform to the consensus, which works like this: If you conform to the consensus, then when everyone is wrong, you don't look so bad, and you don't need to worry about losing your job as head analyst.

But i...



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Phil's Favorites

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Health Care & Merck Working A Bullish Breakouts!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Health Care (XLV) ETF has lagged the S&P for the past few years. Is the lagging trend about to end? It sure could and we should find out very soon!

This chart looks at the Health Care/S&P Ratio (XLV/SPY), which reflects that it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (1). Over the past 6-months the ratio has created a series of higher lows, reflecting out performance of XLV to the broad markets.

The ratio is testing a support/resistance line at (2). If the ratio breaks out at (2), it would suggest that health care stocks wi...



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Insider Scoop

CMA CGM Bolsters Its LNG Fuel Supply With Total Deal

Courtesy of Benzinga

CMA CGM said it signed a deal with France's largest energy firm to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to power container ships.

The fourth-largest global carrier by capacity, CMA CGM said the deal with Total's marine fuels division will cover LNG supply at the Marseille-Fos fueling hub in the Mediterranean. Terms were not disclosed.

Total will supply approximately 270,000 metric tons of LNG per year over the next 10 years. CMA CGM said it will be the volume needed for its 15,000 twenty-foot equivalen...



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Digital Currencies

Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com

Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unkno...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Tuesday, 09 July 2019, 01:48:48 AM


 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.





Comment:
FED has no ammo in the next crisis!


Date Found: Friday, 12 July 2019, 02:38:12 AM
 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.





Comment:
YIP Corporate debt blows up when econ...



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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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