Archive for January, 2014

Comment by jmm1951

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  1. jmm1951

    Costa Concordia, the stricken cruise liner, is slipping from the rock shelf into the sea, triggering a warning from Italian environment minister that an ecological disaster could follow its sinking.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9017591/Cruise-disaster-ship-slipping-into-the-sea.html

     
    The ship's fuel tanks are full of diesel. Nice.







Comment by Investwizard

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  1. Investwizard

    Shadowfax, thanks! I also bought a few more puts.







Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland

    This can not be repeated enuff:
     
     
     
    "So, if I have $41,981 to buy 100 shares of AAPL and I expect it to go up 10% this year, I can buy the stock and perhaps hedge my investment (which would eat into my potential profits) and I would need AAPL to go up 13.5% in order to make $5,700 against $21,000 in margin tied up.  On the the other hand, if I sell 2 2014 $300 puts for $28.50, I collect $5,700 TODAY and tie up $6,000 in ordinary margin and my worst case is owning 200 shares of AAPL for net $54,300 so my "risk" is spending $12,319 more than I intended but, for that, I get 100 more shares of AAPL at net $123.19 a share.  If you don't REALLY want to buy 100 shares of AAPL for $123.19 then WHY THE HELL would you be buying 100 shares at $419.81?"







Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil







Comment by angelcur

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  1. angelcur

    GHASTLY// Newt as Torquemada!!!..althoughi think newt would be better at it..so in this dedevilling of candidates would make obama say Saladin?..maybe Abelard?
    All i can say is what a bunch of lousy choices for America including the President..who couldnt run a hot dog stand (but he sure could sell em) i can't see Elder Mitt getting the nod..its a guaranteed loss to the GOP..i  had a single very revealing dealing with him he has been 'smitten by the bump of acquisition"..that intereaction at BCG  showed he wanted no one but himself to succeed and when you were in a room with him (and his hair) the room got smaller fast and he was very distracted. He had a chance to help a kid who had been admitted to 'his' B school.. that kid needed an unpaid internship as part of  fulfilling his admissions requirements..Mitt said no..later someone called me and said he couldnt stand the fact someone had been deferred without an undergraduate degree…he is named for a wonderful man who was a Mormon (of a different calling)..as was his father George..Mitt is a hollow man.







Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Play central banker…

    http://qz.com/158549/put-down-the-xbox-and-play-these-thrilling-games-created-by-central-bankers/

    Apparently this game from the ECB is pretty good:

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/economia/html/index.en.html

    Just in case you were wondering what these guys do during the meetings!







Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Verticals/Jomme – It's not very complicated.  Let's say you buy a $40 call for $3 and sell a $45 call for $2 and then you paid net $1 for a $5 spread.  So, if you are wrong, you lose $1 and, if you are right, you win $4 so, if we assume being wrong and being right are random events – you can be wrong 4 out of 5 times and break even.  If you sell the $45 puts for $3 and buy the $40 puts for $2, you get a $1 credit and have made the exact same bet (that the stock will finish over $45) and you are 200% ahead of the game to begin.  Unfortunately though, if we assume your chances of being correct are the same random event, then if you are wrong just one time out of 4 – you blow all of your winnings.  So, buying a vertical – odds 4:1 in your favor, selling a vertical – odds 1:4 against you.  The money you are paid up front is an illusion – it's the payment you get for taking an extreme risk and, like all odds payouts – you are being inadequately compensated for your risk.  That's why we prefer to BE THE HOUSE, and make those inadequate payouts to other fools who think they are smarter than the odds.  This is why the rich get richer – there is always some sucker willing to stick his neck on the chopping block in exchange for a little money up front – try not to be that sucker.  

    As anyone who goes to the track hopefully understands, the odds derived in parimutuel betting are not a joke – they pretty accurately reflect the chance of each horse coming in the money.  You can never be certain and, in any given race the long-shot can win but anyone with a long-shot betting "system" doesn't last very long.  In fact, the entire reason the track exists is because the combined wisdom of a few thousand people who attend a race ends up losing more money than they make on a very regular basis.   Both the Mob and the State love the numbers racket – people love to pick random numbers chasing a big payoff.  Again – it's a


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Comment by kramer36350

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  1. kramer36350

    SAN ANTONIO, January 17, 2012 – Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLONews) today announced that the company expects to report earnings per share in the range of $0.00 to $0.10 for the fourth quarter of 2011.  Included in this estimate is an after-tax benefit of approximately $161 million, or $0.29 per share, from a year-end LIFO inventory decrement.
    The fourth quarter 2011 results were negatively impacted by weak margins on refined products, particularly for gasoline and petrochemical feedstocks.  In addition, refining margins in the fourth quarter were negatively impacted by reduced discounts for heavy sour feedstocks and the narrowing of prices for West Texas Intermediate versus Brent crude oils, resulting in higher-priced crude oils flowing through the system.
     
    Despite the lower results expected for the fourth quarter, Valero expects to report its highest annual earnings per share since 2008 with full-year 2011 income from continuing operations per share in the range of $3.59 to $3.69, including the LIFO inventory benefit







Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Lots of surprising charts for 2013:

    http://qz.com/157819/26-charts-that-taught-me-something-surprising-in-2013/

    Too many to post but here are a few:

    Good thing we saved the car industry

    Drill, baby, drill….

    This one is a surprise as I though for sure that the US would be on top here!







Comment by Burrben

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  1. Burrben

    @craigzooka 
     
    Thanks, I did know that synthethiclly they are the same.  But from what I understand you would want to look at credit spreads in a high vol environment, and debit spreads in a low vol environment.  I'd rather be long vega, than short vega with what we have going on in the world at this point.   At least that's what I gather from doing reading today…
     
    Phil had another interesting take that I will have to sit down and walk through.  I don't have TOS anymore, and IB doesn't have as clean of a PnL/Risk graph as IB does.  







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Explosion Hits Russia's Largest Virus Lab Which Houses Plague, Smallpox, Ebola And Other Deadly Viruses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A sudden explosion at a Siberian virus research center on Monday reportedly left the facility engulfed in flames, according to several Russian news outlets. 

Firefighters and other emergency personnel were dispatched to the "Vector Institute" located several miles from Novosibirsk - an emergency which was upgraded "from an ordinary emergency to a major incident," a...



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Phil's Favorites

The future of work will still include plenty of jobs

 

The future of work will still include plenty of jobs

Even though the future is unknown, Canada’s employment rate has risen steadily from 53 per cent in 1946 to more than 61 per cent today. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Wayne Simpson, University of Manitoba

There is now widespread anxiety over the future of work, often accompanied by calls for a basic income to protect those displaced by automation and other technological changes.

As a labour economis...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Is The Drone Strike a Black Swan?

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Pundits are calling yesterday’s drone strke a “black swan.” Can a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility, be a “black swan.”

According to Investopedia:

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

I seriously doubt that no one expected or could have predicted a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility.

Call Me A B...

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Insider Scoop

New Relic Cuts 2020 Sales Guidance, Announces Changes In Management

Courtesy of Benzinga

New Relic (NYSE: NEWR) has reaffirmed its second-quarter guidance and cut its sales guidance for fiscal year 2020 from $600 million-$607 million to $586 million-$593 million.

The company’s chief technology officer, Jim Gochee, and chief revenue officer, Erica Schultz, have resigned. New Relic also named board member Michael Christenson as its chief operating officer. Christenson joins from his ...



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The Technical Traders

Metals are following downside sell off prediction before the next rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...



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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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