Archive for January, 2014

Comment by jmm1951

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  1. jmm1951

    Costa Concordia, the stricken cruise liner, is slipping from the rock shelf into the sea, triggering a warning from Italian environment minister that an ecological disaster could follow its sinking.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9017591/Cruise-disaster-ship-slipping-into-the-sea.html

     
    The ship's fuel tanks are full of diesel. Nice.







Comment by Investwizard

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  1. Investwizard

    Shadowfax, thanks! I also bought a few more puts.







Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland

    This can not be repeated enuff:
     
     
     
    "So, if I have $41,981 to buy 100 shares of AAPL and I expect it to go up 10% this year, I can buy the stock and perhaps hedge my investment (which would eat into my potential profits) and I would need AAPL to go up 13.5% in order to make $5,700 against $21,000 in margin tied up.  On the the other hand, if I sell 2 2014 $300 puts for $28.50, I collect $5,700 TODAY and tie up $6,000 in ordinary margin and my worst case is owning 200 shares of AAPL for net $54,300 so my "risk" is spending $12,319 more than I intended but, for that, I get 100 more shares of AAPL at net $123.19 a share.  If you don't REALLY want to buy 100 shares of AAPL for $123.19 then WHY THE HELL would you be buying 100 shares at $419.81?"







Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil







Comment by angelcur

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  1. angelcur

    GHASTLY// Newt as Torquemada!!!..althoughi think newt would be better at it..so in this dedevilling of candidates would make obama say Saladin?..maybe Abelard?
    All i can say is what a bunch of lousy choices for America including the President..who couldnt run a hot dog stand (but he sure could sell em) i can't see Elder Mitt getting the nod..its a guaranteed loss to the GOP..i  had a single very revealing dealing with him he has been 'smitten by the bump of acquisition"..that intereaction at BCG  showed he wanted no one but himself to succeed and when you were in a room with him (and his hair) the room got smaller fast and he was very distracted. He had a chance to help a kid who had been admitted to 'his' B school.. that kid needed an unpaid internship as part of  fulfilling his admissions requirements..Mitt said no..later someone called me and said he couldnt stand the fact someone had been deferred without an undergraduate degree…he is named for a wonderful man who was a Mormon (of a different calling)..as was his father George..Mitt is a hollow man.







Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Play central banker…

    http://qz.com/158549/put-down-the-xbox-and-play-these-thrilling-games-created-by-central-bankers/

    Apparently this game from the ECB is pretty good:

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/economia/html/index.en.html

    Just in case you were wondering what these guys do during the meetings!







Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Verticals/Jomme – It's not very complicated.  Let's say you buy a $40 call for $3 and sell a $45 call for $2 and then you paid net $1 for a $5 spread.  So, if you are wrong, you lose $1 and, if you are right, you win $4 so, if we assume being wrong and being right are random events – you can be wrong 4 out of 5 times and break even.  If you sell the $45 puts for $3 and buy the $40 puts for $2, you get a $1 credit and have made the exact same bet (that the stock will finish over $45) and you are 200% ahead of the game to begin.  Unfortunately though, if we assume your chances of being correct are the same random event, then if you are wrong just one time out of 4 – you blow all of your winnings.  So, buying a vertical – odds 4:1 in your favor, selling a vertical – odds 1:4 against you.  The money you are paid up front is an illusion – it's the payment you get for taking an extreme risk and, like all odds payouts – you are being inadequately compensated for your risk.  That's why we prefer to BE THE HOUSE, and make those inadequate payouts to other fools who think they are smarter than the odds.  This is why the rich get richer – there is always some sucker willing to stick his neck on the chopping block in exchange for a little money up front – try not to be that sucker.  

    As anyone who goes to the track hopefully understands, the odds derived in parimutuel betting are not a joke – they pretty accurately reflect the chance of each horse coming in the money.  You can never be certain and, in any given race the long-shot can win but anyone with a long-shot betting "system" doesn't last very long.  In fact, the entire reason the track exists is because the combined wisdom of a few thousand people who attend a race ends up losing more money than they make on a very regular basis.   Both the Mob and the State love the numbers racket – people love to pick random numbers chasing a big payoff.  Again – it's a


continue reading





Comment by kramer36350

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  1. kramer36350

    SAN ANTONIO, January 17, 2012 – Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLONews) today announced that the company expects to report earnings per share in the range of $0.00 to $0.10 for the fourth quarter of 2011.  Included in this estimate is an after-tax benefit of approximately $161 million, or $0.29 per share, from a year-end LIFO inventory decrement.
    The fourth quarter 2011 results were negatively impacted by weak margins on refined products, particularly for gasoline and petrochemical feedstocks.  In addition, refining margins in the fourth quarter were negatively impacted by reduced discounts for heavy sour feedstocks and the narrowing of prices for West Texas Intermediate versus Brent crude oils, resulting in higher-priced crude oils flowing through the system.
     
    Despite the lower results expected for the fourth quarter, Valero expects to report its highest annual earnings per share since 2008 with full-year 2011 income from continuing operations per share in the range of $3.59 to $3.69, including the LIFO inventory benefit







Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Lots of surprising charts for 2013:

    http://qz.com/157819/26-charts-that-taught-me-something-surprising-in-2013/

    Too many to post but here are a few:

    Good thing we saved the car industry

    Drill, baby, drill….

    This one is a surprise as I though for sure that the US would be on top here!







Comment by Burrben

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  1. Burrben

    @craigzooka 
     
    Thanks, I did know that synthethiclly they are the same.  But from what I understand you would want to look at credit spreads in a high vol environment, and debit spreads in a low vol environment.  I'd rather be long vega, than short vega with what we have going on in the world at this point.   At least that's what I gather from doing reading today…
     
    Phil had another interesting take that I will have to sit down and walk through.  I don't have TOS anymore, and IB doesn't have as clean of a PnL/Risk graph as IB does.  







 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

 

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

Pfc Elias Friedensohn in June 1945 at the Special Services Distributing Point, Seine Section, Paris, France. National Archives

Courtesy of Edward Gitre, Virginia Tech

I can still recall the exhilaration I felt in the reading room of the National Archives in College Park, Maryland.

It was mid-April 2009. I was scrolling through roll after microfilm roll of the War Department’s “Opinion Surveys Relating to the Morale of U.S. Army Personnel.”

What I had discovered were tens of thousands of statements writte...



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Zero Hedge

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bullish bias of equity investors was likely misplaced. I have updated last week’s chart for reference.

The increase in risks has had us rotating exposure in our portfolios to a more defensive tilt. We previously trimmed back our overweight exposure to Technology, Then, two weeks ago, we noted...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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