Archive for January, 2014

Comment by jmm1951

View Single Comment

  1. jmm1951

    Costa Concordia, the stricken cruise liner, is slipping from the rock shelf into the sea, triggering a warning from Italian environment minister that an ecological disaster could follow its sinking.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9017591/Cruise-disaster-ship-slipping-into-the-sea.html

     
    The ship's fuel tanks are full of diesel. Nice.







Comment by Investwizard

View Single Comment

  1. Investwizard

    Shadowfax, thanks! I also bought a few more puts.







Comment by flipspiceland

View Single Comment

  1. flipspiceland

    This can not be repeated enuff:
     
     
     
    "So, if I have $41,981 to buy 100 shares of AAPL and I expect it to go up 10% this year, I can buy the stock and perhaps hedge my investment (which would eat into my potential profits) and I would need AAPL to go up 13.5% in order to make $5,700 against $21,000 in margin tied up.  On the the other hand, if I sell 2 2014 $300 puts for $28.50, I collect $5,700 TODAY and tie up $6,000 in ordinary margin and my worst case is owning 200 shares of AAPL for net $54,300 so my "risk" is spending $12,319 more than I intended but, for that, I get 100 more shares of AAPL at net $123.19 a share.  If you don't REALLY want to buy 100 shares of AAPL for $123.19 then WHY THE HELL would you be buying 100 shares at $419.81?"







Comment by Phil

View Single Comment

  1. Phil







Comment by angelcur

View Single Comment

  1. angelcur

    GHASTLY// Newt as Torquemada!!!..althoughi think newt would be better at it..so in this dedevilling of candidates would make obama say Saladin?..maybe Abelard?
    All i can say is what a bunch of lousy choices for America including the President..who couldnt run a hot dog stand (but he sure could sell em) i can't see Elder Mitt getting the nod..its a guaranteed loss to the GOP..i  had a single very revealing dealing with him he has been 'smitten by the bump of acquisition"..that intereaction at BCG  showed he wanted no one but himself to succeed and when you were in a room with him (and his hair) the room got smaller fast and he was very distracted. He had a chance to help a kid who had been admitted to 'his' B school.. that kid needed an unpaid internship as part of  fulfilling his admissions requirements..Mitt said no..later someone called me and said he couldnt stand the fact someone had been deferred without an undergraduate degree…he is named for a wonderful man who was a Mormon (of a different calling)..as was his father George..Mitt is a hollow man.







Comment by stjeanluc

View Single Comment

  1. stjeanluc

    Play central banker…

    http://qz.com/158549/put-down-the-xbox-and-play-these-thrilling-games-created-by-central-bankers/

    Apparently this game from the ECB is pretty good:

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/economia/html/index.en.html

    Just in case you were wondering what these guys do during the meetings!







Comment by Phil

View Single Comment

  1. Phil

    Verticals/Jomme – It's not very complicated.  Let's say you buy a $40 call for $3 and sell a $45 call for $2 and then you paid net $1 for a $5 spread.  So, if you are wrong, you lose $1 and, if you are right, you win $4 so, if we assume being wrong and being right are random events – you can be wrong 4 out of 5 times and break even.  If you sell the $45 puts for $3 and buy the $40 puts for $2, you get a $1 credit and have made the exact same bet (that the stock will finish over $45) and you are 200% ahead of the game to begin.  Unfortunately though, if we assume your chances of being correct are the same random event, then if you are wrong just one time out of 4 – you blow all of your winnings.  So, buying a vertical – odds 4:1 in your favor, selling a vertical – odds 1:4 against you.  The money you are paid up front is an illusion – it's the payment you get for taking an extreme risk and, like all odds payouts – you are being inadequately compensated for your risk.  That's why we prefer to BE THE HOUSE, and make those inadequate payouts to other fools who think they are smarter than the odds.  This is why the rich get richer – there is always some sucker willing to stick his neck on the chopping block in exchange for a little money up front – try not to be that sucker.  

    As anyone who goes to the track hopefully understands, the odds derived in parimutuel betting are not a joke – they pretty accurately reflect the chance of each horse coming in the money.  You can never be certain and, in any given race the long-shot can win but anyone with a long-shot betting "system" doesn't last very long.  In fact, the entire reason the track exists is because the combined wisdom of a few thousand people who attend a race ends up losing more money than they make on a very regular basis.   Both the Mob and the State love the numbers racket – people love to pick random numbers chasing a big payoff.  Again – it's a


continue reading





Comment by kramer36350

View Single Comment

  1. kramer36350

    SAN ANTONIO, January 17, 2012 – Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLONews) today announced that the company expects to report earnings per share in the range of $0.00 to $0.10 for the fourth quarter of 2011.  Included in this estimate is an after-tax benefit of approximately $161 million, or $0.29 per share, from a year-end LIFO inventory decrement.
    The fourth quarter 2011 results were negatively impacted by weak margins on refined products, particularly for gasoline and petrochemical feedstocks.  In addition, refining margins in the fourth quarter were negatively impacted by reduced discounts for heavy sour feedstocks and the narrowing of prices for West Texas Intermediate versus Brent crude oils, resulting in higher-priced crude oils flowing through the system.
     
    Despite the lower results expected for the fourth quarter, Valero expects to report its highest annual earnings per share since 2008 with full-year 2011 income from continuing operations per share in the range of $3.59 to $3.69, including the LIFO inventory benefit







Comment by stjeanluc

View Single Comment

  1. stjeanluc

    Lots of surprising charts for 2013:

    http://qz.com/157819/26-charts-that-taught-me-something-surprising-in-2013/

    Too many to post but here are a few:

    Good thing we saved the car industry

    Drill, baby, drill….

    This one is a surprise as I though for sure that the US would be on top here!







Comment by Burrben

View Single Comment

  1. Burrben

    @craigzooka 
     
    Thanks, I did know that synthethiclly they are the same.  But from what I understand you would want to look at credit spreads in a high vol environment, and debit spreads in a low vol environment.  I'd rather be long vega, than short vega with what we have going on in the world at this point.   At least that's what I gather from doing reading today…
     
    Phil had another interesting take that I will have to sit down and walk through.  I don't have TOS anymore, and IB doesn't have as clean of a PnL/Risk graph as IB does.  







 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

 

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid busting the debt ceiling. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

Editor’s note: The U.S. government maxed out its national credit card in March and has been moving money around ever since to avoid running out of cash. Very soon the Treasury Department ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

This Is Where The Next Recession Will Start: An Epidemiological Study

By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

(Published at ZeroHedge)

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

When medical professionals study epidemics, they look for the source of the ou...



more from Tyler

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



more from Biotech

ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>