Courtesy of Mish.
Expectations for continued growth in the US remain overoptimistic.
For example Bloomberg reports the median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decrease in ISM to 56 from a December reading of 56.5.
Instead, the index plunged to 51.3, a number marginally above the expansion-contraction reading of 50.
Here are the numbers from the January 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
ISM at a Glance
| Series Data | Jan Index | Dec Index | Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMI™ | 51.3 | 56.5 | -5.2 | Growing | Slower | 8 |
| New Orders | 51.2 | 64.4 | -13.2 | Growing | Slower | 8 |
| Production | 54.8 | 61.7 | -6.9 | Growing | Slower | 17 |
| Employment | 52.3 | 55.8 | -3.5 | Growing | Slower | 7 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 54.3 | 53.7 | +0.6 | Slowing | Faster | 8 |
| Inventories | 44.0 | 47.0 | -3.0 | Contracting | Faster | 2 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 44.0 | 47.5 | -3.5 | Too Low | Faster | 26 |
| Prices | 60.5 | 53.5 | +7.0 | Increasing | Faster | 6 |
| Backlog of Orders | 48.0 | 51.5 | -3.5 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Exports | 54.5 | 55.0 | -0.5 | Growing | Slower | 14 |
| Imports | 53.5 | 55.0 | -1.5 | Growing | Slower | 12 |
ISM Report Snips
PMI
Manufacturing expanded in January as the PMI® registered 51.3 percent, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points when compared to December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 56.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index registered 51.2 percent in January, a significant decrease of 13.2 percentage points when compared to the December seasonally adjusted reading of 64.4 percent. This represents growth in new orders for the eighth consecutive month, but is also the largest decline in new orders in the last four years. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
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