Archive for March, 2014

Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Brooklyn -

    I don’t know a ton about options. I didn’t see a $9 call, so I think the $10 would be good.

Comment by brooklyn

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  1. brooklyn

    David – what do you think of the medium and long term prospects? Does entering by buying a July $10 call and reducing the cost  by selling an October $10 put for close to a $1 make sense?

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Banks/Deano – Whole XLF popped, maybe some leak on the stress tests? 

    SLW/STP, Rookie – What we have left is the Jan $20/25 bull call spread but that was initiated on 2/12.   You are referring to a position from the old STP, which was totally cashed out last year.  If you were sitting on naked $19 calls, that's a very nice gain but shame on you for not stopping out on the drop from $27 back to $25 AFTER I have made roughly 100 calls this month to get back to CASH!!!  

    Austerity/Lunar – It's like that discussion last week we had on facts vs. opinions.  Like Trickle Down Economics, Austerity has been proven not to work over and over and over again – it's a political tool, not an economic solution – yet it benefits the rich and powerful at the expense of the poor so it continues to be used to bludgeon unsuspecting populations.  It's war – just an economic one, where the oppressed are unarmed and unable to fight back and the goal of the rich is to keep it that way.  

    Gates/StJ – OK, I will say that, if I were a Gates kid, I would be pissed if I didn't get at least $1Bn!

    Sushi/Wombat – Goal-oriented trading is the best kind.  If I'm thinking going out for sushi and it's going to be $200 for the family, I like to try to make $200 to pay for it and, if I happen to make more – we go to Nobu and, if I happen to lose $200 instead, then I scrap the plan for sushi and we're even!  My friend and I spend two weeks in Tahoe like that, gambling for every meal and every show, room upgrades, etc. – we went home with more money than we came with and the secret it taking a small win and walking away, rather than doing what most people do – which is play until they lose.

    Like this morning, the RUT made a quick $200 so I'm happy.  The second it turned back up I got out and now we're at 1,190 again so maybe another chance to play (if we get the signals from other indexes).

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Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    SCO April $29/32 bull call spread at $1.10, selling $29 puts for .80 is net .30 – 10 in the Short-Term Portfolio.  

Comment by bobhu

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  1. bobhu

    Hello Phil,
    Went to cruise for over 2 weeks and missed the market, got few bad positions, please help… this is few of them:
    Sold RIMM May 70 put, GOOG May 540 Put and BIDU 67 Call, which month and strike should I roll to?

Comment by rookie

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  1. rookie

    Phil// Couple of questions

    (a)  We added a sco naked call in the 25kp in addition to our following existing position.  Not sure if the STP position was closed when you called for all cash.

    March 19th, 2014 at 10:52 am | PermalinkTweet thisIgnore this user

    SCO April $29/32 bull call spread at $1.10, selling $29 puts for .80 is net .30 – 10 in the Short-Term Portfolio.  


    (b)  Question of SLW – I guess SLW is falling due to the rest of the market and also based on Yellen's comments on a rate hike earlier than anticipated.  With that being said, is this a good time to roll the slw or wait to see a better price to roll it?  Thanks.  Following is the trade we have left on SLW

    March 20th, 2014 at 5:41 am | Permalink | Tweet thisIgnore this user

    SLW/STP, Rookie – What we have left is the Jan $20/25 bull call spread but that was initiated on 2/12.   

Comment by dougiedd

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  1. dougiedd

    . "It was lights out ever since that moment…"
    Lets see:
    Apple rose from 517 to 702 after Einhorns call. 
    Lights out?

Comment by diamond

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  1. diamond

    snow – The 38th parallel was a very important demarcation to China as well.

Comment by RMM

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  1. RMM


    one by one:
    JPM, no caller but mar 26 putter,
    action: sell 1x apr 18 call for 2.2$
    and roll mar 26 putter to 2x apr17 for 3.2$, set stop at 20 % gain, comment please.

Comment by shadowfax

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  1. shadowfax

    CNBC is spinning!
    Can’t understand what was so good, smal limprovements but under last year.


Zero Hedge

Schiff: Negative Interest Rates Are "Boneheaded"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.


Donald Trump has been badgering Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for months, begging for lower interest rates. This week, he took things to another level, saying that the “boneheads” at the Fed need to push rates into negative territory.

In his podcast, Peter Schiff said negative interest rates are boneheaded. ...

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The Technical Traders

Metals are following downside sell off prediction before the next rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold...

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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 


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Phil's Favorites

Black Hole Investing


Black Hole Investing

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon.

Or maybe not. One theory says we are all inside a black hole right now. That could possibly explain a few things about central bank policy. ...

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Insider Scoop

The Street Reacts To Kroger's Q2 With Mixed Takeaways

Courtesy of Benzinga

Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) reported second-quarter results that came in better than expected. The earnings beat may have been overshadowed by management's decision to remove its prior guidance of $400 million in incremental EBIT by fiscal 2021.

Q2 A Mix Of Positives And Negativ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Nonfarm Payrolls Not Seasonally Adjusted Tell the Real Story - Unspinning Wall Street™

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.

Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?

Here’s How The Street Spun It – Wall Street Journal Modest August Job Growth Shows Economy Expanding, but Slowly

Employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs, jobless rate held steady at 3.7%

U.S. employment grew only modestly in August, suggesting that a global economic slowdown isn’t driving the U.S. into recession but has dente...

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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...

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The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:


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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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