Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 175,000 vs. a Bloomberg consensus expectation of 150,000.
The employment change for December 2013 was revised up by 9,000 (from +75,000 to +84,000), and the employment change for January 2014 was revised up by 16,000 (from +113,000 to +129,000). The overall effect was a modest two-month upward revision of +25,000.
Beneath the surface, things look worse again. The household survey shows a gain of employment of only 42,000 while unemployment rose by 223,000.
February BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
- Nonfarm Payroll: +175,000 – Establishment Survey
- Employment: +42,000 – Household Survey
- Unemployment: +223,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: -71,000 – Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: -138,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 6.7% – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 12.6% – Household Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +170,000
- Civilian Labor Force: +264,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: -94,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: +0.0 at 63.0 – Household Survey
Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
- In the past year the population rose by 2,257,000.
- In the last year the labor force fell by 213,000.
- In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 2,253,000
- Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,044,000 (an average of 170,333 a month)
The population rose by over 2 million, but the labor force fell by over 200,000. People dropping out of the work force accounts for much of the declining unemployment rate.
February 2014 Employment Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February 2014 Employment Report.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in wholesale trade but declined in information.
…
