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Friday, May 17, 2024

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Commodities/Dpast – I think oil can go much lower.  It's dangerous to short into May but I do like the SCO July $30/36 bull call spread at $3, selling the April $35 puts for $1.30 for net $1.70 on the $6 spread and you either have to roll the short puts (SCO now $35.25 with oil at $102.90) or sell new ones to further reduce the basis.  Meanwhile, it's the kind of trade that, if it moves against you, you can roll and adjust so great fun and excitement if you scale in.  If we have a big crash, those GLL calls in the $25KP are good too.  

    TLT/$5KP, Yshen – I see .66, which is a nice one-day gain off .57 (17%) but really it's just "on track" I think as the risk of loss is not so much that we shouldn't want to play for that extra .34 (50%) in 12 more trading days.  

    USO/Savi – Proper conservative way to play.  I'm going with my gut and leaving them on.  

    IWM/Star – I'd take them as a momentum trade over $82 ($82.20 now) and the weekly $81 calls  have very little premium at $1.25 but, at this exact moment, I would wait until they prove they can hold the line because it still feels down to me.  



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