Archive for April, 2014

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Earnings for tonight:

    Consensus – 0.67
    Whisper – 0.69
    Average move – 6.4%
    Priced into Options – 4.7%

    Consensus – 1.52
    Whisper – 1.52
    Average move – 6.1%
    Priced into Options – 7.1% (May)

    Consensus – 1.26
    Whisper – 1.28
    Average move – 7.3%
    Priced into Options – 6.1%

    Consensus – (0.03)
    Whisper – (0.01)
    Average move – 10.1%
    Priced into Options – 13.2%

    Based on Earnings Whisper new statistical system, EBAY has more chances on the upside and STX more on the downside. No sure thing though. The other ones are neutral.

Comment by EricL

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  1. EricL

    Love the Yahoo Finance ‘top story’ right now:
    "Stocks are down as news of an improving job market stirred hopes of an improvement in the economy."
    Says it all really.

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    AAPL/QC – Yes it does, look again.  They were trading at $21 earlier, last trade was $20.60.  

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Tomorrow after the close, we'll have CSX which I'll watch for impact on others like Ags and Coal and of course INTC which will impact tech in general.

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Tech earnings guidance: Cray, Dolby, SolarWinds

    Yesterday, 05:13 PM ET · CRAY

    • CRAY still expects 2014 revenue of $600M, of which only $75M will be in Q2 (below a $95.9M consensus). Full-year gross margin is still expected to be in the mid-30s. Shares -2.1% AH. (Q1 results, PR)
    • Dolby (DLB) expects FQ3 revenue of $205M-$215M and EPS of $0.38-$0.43 vs. a consensus of $216.9M and $0.32. FY14 (ends in September) guidance is for revenue of $930M-$950M, above a $921.8M consensus. Shares +1.3% AH. (FQ2 results, PR)
    • SolarWinds (SWI) expects Q2 revenue of $96.5M-$98.5M and EPS of $0.35-$0.37, below a consensus of $98.8M and $0.38. Full-year guidance is better: revenue of $409M-$421M and EPS of $1.60-$1.70 vs. a consensus of $415.6M and $1.61. Shares roughly unchanged for now. (Q1 results, PR)
    var isMC=true; var adSize=’320×50′; var ord = Math.floor(Math.random()*10e12); var seekingalpha_ad_src=’;sz=320×50,320×250;x=x;tile=1;d=mobile;t=app;mcid=true;mcid=1706543;s=CRAY;s=DLB;s=SWI;’+dart_my_vocation_and_profiles()+’ord=’+ord+’;dev=ip?’; document.write(”);

Comment by RMM

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  1. RMM

    Phil: this is good but it depresses me more than tthe market.
    How do you get or have all these provoking pictures, they are not cool as 1020 says, they are deeply disturbing.
    First we have a financial mess inn the uSA now in Europe.
    Deep down the wealth distribution is a root cause: the gradient between rich and the others is far too great, the rich boys running the financial system cannot even control these creations anymore.
    Its true: we the people only can change things. The future does not look too good.

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    U.S. Economy To Enter Recession In Next 12 Months Or Less

    Yesterday, 03:41 PM ET | by Profit Confidential

    By Michael Lombardi, MBAAn economy is said to be technically in a recession when it experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.The biggest portion of the U.S. GDP calculation is consumer spending; then comes investments, government spending, and, finally, net of exports. By far, consumer spending is the biggest factor in calculating GDP. All you need is a …

    Read more at Seeking Alpha:

    Sent from the Seeking Alpha Portfolio app. Get the app.

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Comment by scottmi

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  1. scottmi

    ARIA/Pharm – still a buyout candidate for May expirations? roll out the bull call spreads?

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    From Bloomberg, Apr 30, 2014, 12:01:13 AM

    April 29 (Bloomberg) — Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, and John Taylor, a professor at Stanford University, talk about U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, and the global economy.
    The Wall Street Journal’s Gerard Baker moderates the panel at the Milken Institute 2014 Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The U.S. economy probably grew in
    the first quarter at the slowest pace in a year as harsh winter
    weather chilled consumers and businesses, economists project a
    report today to show.

    To read the entire article, go to
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

Comment by gerryf

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  1. gerryf


    Nice to see you back. I gave up on the CAT backratios because CAT hasn't  been going down or staying flat! ! For several months I have been buying a 3x $5  spread and selling 3x puts…netting $700-$750 max  on the 3x  spread.  For Jun and July I switched to a $2.5 spread. Example JUN 95/97.5 BCS with $95 put net cost .36.   Put out $118 for the 3x  play that returns $750.  

    Playing around… a good run.  THX


Phil's Favorites

The American GI in WWII, uncensored


The American GI in WWII, uncensored

Pfc Elias Friedensohn in June 1945 at the Special Services Distributing Point, Seine Section, Paris, France. National Archives

Courtesy of Edward Gitre, Virginia Tech

I can still recall the exhilaration I felt in the reading room of the National Archives in College Park, Maryland.

It was mid-April 2009. I was scrolling through roll after microfilm roll of the War Department’s “Opinion Surveys Relating to the Morale of U.S. Army Personnel.”

What I had discovered were tens of thousands of statements writte...

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Zero Hedge

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

Courtesy of Lance Roberts,

Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bullish bias of equity investors was likely misplaced. I have updated last week’s chart for reference.

The increase in risks has had us rotating exposure in our portfolios to a more defensive tilt. We previously trimmed back our overweight exposure to Technology, Then, two weeks ago, we noted...

more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

more from Bitcoin


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


more from Biotech


More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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