Archive for April, 2014

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Earnings for tonight:

    Consensus – 0.67
    Whisper – 0.69
    Average move – 6.4%
    Priced into Options – 4.7%

    Consensus – 1.52
    Whisper – 1.52
    Average move – 6.1%
    Priced into Options – 7.1% (May)

    Consensus – 1.26
    Whisper – 1.28
    Average move – 7.3%
    Priced into Options – 6.1%

    Consensus – (0.03)
    Whisper – (0.01)
    Average move – 10.1%
    Priced into Options – 13.2%

    Based on Earnings Whisper new statistical system, EBAY has more chances on the upside and STX more on the downside. No sure thing though. The other ones are neutral.

Comment by EricL

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  1. EricL

    Love the Yahoo Finance ‘top story’ right now:
    "Stocks are down as news of an improving job market stirred hopes of an improvement in the economy."
    Says it all really.

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    AAPL/QC – Yes it does, look again.  They were trading at $21 earlier, last trade was $20.60.  

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Tomorrow after the close, we'll have CSX which I'll watch for impact on others like Ags and Coal and of course INTC which will impact tech in general.

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Tech earnings guidance: Cray, Dolby, SolarWinds

    Yesterday, 05:13 PM ET · CRAY

    • CRAY still expects 2014 revenue of $600M, of which only $75M will be in Q2 (below a $95.9M consensus). Full-year gross margin is still expected to be in the mid-30s. Shares -2.1% AH. (Q1 results, PR)
    • Dolby (DLB) expects FQ3 revenue of $205M-$215M and EPS of $0.38-$0.43 vs. a consensus of $216.9M and $0.32. FY14 (ends in September) guidance is for revenue of $930M-$950M, above a $921.8M consensus. Shares +1.3% AH. (FQ2 results, PR)
    • SolarWinds (SWI) expects Q2 revenue of $96.5M-$98.5M and EPS of $0.35-$0.37, below a consensus of $98.8M and $0.38. Full-year guidance is better: revenue of $409M-$421M and EPS of $1.60-$1.70 vs. a consensus of $415.6M and $1.61. Shares roughly unchanged for now. (Q1 results, PR)
    var isMC=true; var adSize=’320×50′; var ord = Math.floor(Math.random()*10e12); var seekingalpha_ad_src=’;sz=320×50,320×250;x=x;tile=1;d=mobile;t=app;mcid=true;mcid=1706543;s=CRAY;s=DLB;s=SWI;’+dart_my_vocation_and_profiles()+’ord=’+ord+’;dev=ip?’; document.write(”);

Comment by RMM

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  1. RMM

    Phil: this is good but it depresses me more than tthe market.
    How do you get or have all these provoking pictures, they are not cool as 1020 says, they are deeply disturbing.
    First we have a financial mess inn the uSA now in Europe.
    Deep down the wealth distribution is a root cause: the gradient between rich and the others is far too great, the rich boys running the financial system cannot even control these creations anymore.
    Its true: we the people only can change things. The future does not look too good.

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    U.S. Economy To Enter Recession In Next 12 Months Or Less

    Yesterday, 03:41 PM ET | by Profit Confidential

    By Michael Lombardi, MBAAn economy is said to be technically in a recession when it experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.The biggest portion of the U.S. GDP calculation is consumer spending; then comes investments, government spending, and, finally, net of exports. By far, consumer spending is the biggest factor in calculating GDP. All you need is a …

    Read more at Seeking Alpha:

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Comment by scottmi

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  1. scottmi

    ARIA/Pharm – still a buyout candidate for May expirations? roll out the bull call spreads?

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    From Bloomberg, Apr 30, 2014, 12:01:13 AM

    April 29 (Bloomberg) — Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, and John Taylor, a professor at Stanford University, talk about U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, and the global economy.
    The Wall Street Journal’s Gerard Baker moderates the panel at the Milken Institute 2014 Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The U.S. economy probably grew in
    the first quarter at the slowest pace in a year as harsh winter
    weather chilled consumers and businesses, economists project a
    report today to show.

    To read the entire article, go to
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

Comment by gerryf

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  1. gerryf


    Nice to see you back. I gave up on the CAT backratios because CAT hasn't  been going down or staying flat! ! For several months I have been buying a 3x $5  spread and selling 3x puts…netting $700-$750 max  on the 3x  spread.  For Jun and July I switched to a $2.5 spread. Example JUN 95/97.5 BCS with $95 put net cost .36.   Put out $118 for the 3x  play that returns $750.  

    Playing around… a good run.  THX


Phil's Favorites

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered


The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid busting the debt ceiling. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

Editor’s note: The U.S. government maxed out its national credit card in March and has been moving money around ever since to avoid running out of cash. Very soon the Treasury Department ...

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Zero Hedge

This Is Where The Next Recession Will Start: An Epidemiological Study

By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

(Published at ZeroHedge)

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

When medical professionals study epidemics, they look for the source of the ou...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...

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Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor... more from Insider


DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...

more from Biotech


Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing


Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.


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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

more from M.T.M.


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>