Archive for April, 2014

Comment by stjeanluc

View Single Comment

  1. stjeanluc

    Earnings for tonight:

    Consensus – 0.67
    Whisper – 0.69
    Average move – 6.4%
    Priced into Options – 4.7%

    Consensus – 1.52
    Whisper – 1.52
    Average move – 6.1%
    Priced into Options – 7.1% (May)

    Consensus – 1.26
    Whisper – 1.28
    Average move – 7.3%
    Priced into Options – 6.1%

    Consensus – (0.03)
    Whisper – (0.01)
    Average move – 10.1%
    Priced into Options – 13.2%

    Based on Earnings Whisper new statistical system, EBAY has more chances on the upside and STX more on the downside. No sure thing though. The other ones are neutral.

Comment by EricL

View Single Comment

  1. EricL

    Love the Yahoo Finance ‘top story’ right now:
    "Stocks are down as news of an improving job market stirred hopes of an improvement in the economy."
    Says it all really.

Comment by phil

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    AAPL/QC – Yes it does, look again.  They were trading at $21 earlier, last trade was $20.60.  

Comment by stjeanluc

View Single Comment

  1. stjeanluc

    Tomorrow after the close, we'll have CSX which I'll watch for impact on others like Ags and Coal and of course INTC which will impact tech in general.

Comment by phil

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    Tech earnings guidance: Cray, Dolby, SolarWinds

    Yesterday, 05:13 PM ET · CRAY

    • CRAY still expects 2014 revenue of $600M, of which only $75M will be in Q2 (below a $95.9M consensus). Full-year gross margin is still expected to be in the mid-30s. Shares -2.1% AH. (Q1 results, PR)
    • Dolby (DLB) expects FQ3 revenue of $205M-$215M and EPS of $0.38-$0.43 vs. a consensus of $216.9M and $0.32. FY14 (ends in September) guidance is for revenue of $930M-$950M, above a $921.8M consensus. Shares +1.3% AH. (FQ2 results, PR)
    • SolarWinds (SWI) expects Q2 revenue of $96.5M-$98.5M and EPS of $0.35-$0.37, below a consensus of $98.8M and $0.38. Full-year guidance is better: revenue of $409M-$421M and EPS of $1.60-$1.70 vs. a consensus of $415.6M and $1.61. Shares roughly unchanged for now. (Q1 results, PR)
    var isMC=true; var adSize=’320×50′; var ord = Math.floor(Math.random()*10e12); var seekingalpha_ad_src=’;sz=320×50,320×250;x=x;tile=1;d=mobile;t=app;mcid=true;mcid=1706543;s=CRAY;s=DLB;s=SWI;’+dart_my_vocation_and_profiles()+’ord=’+ord+’;dev=ip?’; document.write(”);

Comment by RMM

View Single Comment

  1. RMM

    Phil: this is good but it depresses me more than tthe market.
    How do you get or have all these provoking pictures, they are not cool as 1020 says, they are deeply disturbing.
    First we have a financial mess inn the uSA now in Europe.
    Deep down the wealth distribution is a root cause: the gradient between rich and the others is far too great, the rich boys running the financial system cannot even control these creations anymore.
    Its true: we the people only can change things. The future does not look too good.

Comment by phil

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    U.S. Economy To Enter Recession In Next 12 Months Or Less

    Yesterday, 03:41 PM ET | by Profit Confidential

    By Michael Lombardi, MBAAn economy is said to be technically in a recession when it experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.The biggest portion of the U.S. GDP calculation is consumer spending; then comes investments, government spending, and, finally, net of exports. By far, consumer spending is the biggest factor in calculating GDP. All you need is a …

    Read more at Seeking Alpha:

    Sent from the Seeking Alpha Portfolio app. Get the app.

    Having trouble clicking the link?

    Portfolio app:

Comment by scottmi

View Single Comment

  1. scottmi

    ARIA/Pharm – still a buyout candidate for May expirations? roll out the bull call spreads?

Comment by phil

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    From Bloomberg, Apr 30, 2014, 12:01:13 AM

    April 29 (Bloomberg) — Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, and John Taylor, a professor at Stanford University, talk about U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, and the global economy.
    The Wall Street Journal’s Gerard Baker moderates the panel at the Milken Institute 2014 Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The U.S. economy probably grew in
    the first quarter at the slowest pace in a year as harsh winter
    weather chilled consumers and businesses, economists project a
    report today to show.

    To read the entire article, go to
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

Comment by gerryf

View Single Comment

  1. gerryf


    Nice to see you back. I gave up on the CAT backratios because CAT hasn't  been going down or staying flat! ! For several months I have been buying a 3x $5  spread and selling 3x puts…netting $700-$750 max  on the 3x  spread.  For Jun and July I switched to a $2.5 spread. Example JUN 95/97.5 BCS with $95 put net cost .36.   Put out $118 for the 3x  play that returns $750.  

    Playing around… a good run.  THX


Zero Hedge

Traders Buy Stocks, Dump Bonds & Bullion As War Rhetoric Rises

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Makes perfect sense.

After the largest global oil disruption in history, Saudis agree with US that "Iran did it", the US president says the military is "locked and loaded" and what do markets do - bid stocks, buy USDollar, and dump safe-havens like bonds and gold...

The dollar is soaring...

Source: Bloomberg

And ...

more from Tyler

The Technical Traders

Metals are following downside sell off prediction before the next rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold...

more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 


more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Black Hole Investing


Black Hole Investing

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon.

Or maybe not. One theory says we are all inside a black hole right now. That could possibly explain a few things about central bank policy. ...

more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

The Street Reacts To Kroger's Q2 With Mixed Takeaways

Courtesy of Benzinga

Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) reported second-quarter results that came in better than expected. The earnings beat may have been overshadowed by management's decision to remove its prior guidance of $400 million in incremental EBIT by fiscal 2021.

Q2 A Mix Of Positives And Negativ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...

more from Kimble C.S.

Lee's Free Thinking

Nonfarm Payrolls Not Seasonally Adjusted Tell the Real Story - Unspinning Wall Street™

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.

Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?

Here’s How The Street Spun It – Wall Street Journal Modest August Job Growth Shows Economy Expanding, but Slowly

Employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs, jobless rate held steady at 3.7%

U.S. employment grew only modestly in August, suggesting that a global economic slowdown isn’t driving the U.S. into recession but has dente...

more from Lee

Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...

more from Bitcoin


The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:


more from M.T.M.

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

more from Our Members


Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


more from Promotions

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

As Seen On:

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>