Courtesy of Mish.
In a 204 page IMF Report on World Economic Economic Outlook the IMF predicts 3.0 percent US growth in 2014, 1.1 percent for the eurozone, and 5.7 percent growth in emerging markets.
I did not slog through the report, rather I stopped reading on page 13 with the predictions. The IMF is perennially wrong and perennially overoptimistic.
Surprise Index
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo Bank: “The IMF new economic forecast says the US is going to be the growth engine for 2014. It makes perfect sense, not!!! Citigroup’s Surprise index (economic data relative to expected data is at new lows while policy makers see improvement. I guess ultimately it will turn due to mean reversion, but if this is superior growth, I need to go back to school.”
Steen’s Personal Notes
Everyone, and I mean, everyone I have met in the last three month is overweight US stocks based on more growth, best of worst, but asset return from the US market reflects the above chart and my personal view that rates going lower due to much lower growth in the US than perceived.
Year to date performance is not really what the doctor ordered in December is it?
Gold (GLD) vs. S&P 500 (SPX) vs. 7-10 Year Treasuries (IEF)
Wine Country Conference II
Want to hear a live discussion of what Steen Jakobsen thinks about Europe, China, or US interest rates?
Then come to the second annual Wine Country Conference which will be held May 1st & 2nd, 2014. …
