Initial Unemployment Claims Fall To Lowest Since 2006

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 297,870 in the week ending April 19, a decrease of 20,923 (or -6.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 326,264 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013. – DoL

Compared to the comparable week last year claims declined 8.6%, consistent with recent trends.

Initial Claims – Click to enlarge

The seasonally adjusted headline number was 329,000. That is a made up number. Conomists’ consensus was for 312,000 which was not a bad guess. Bloomberg blamed the seasonal adjustment factor for the Easter holiday for the miss. The actual unadjusted data was consistent with the trend.

According to the DoL – “The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 42,668 (or -13.4 percent) from the previous week,” versus the actual decline of 20,923. The 10 year average for the comparable week was a drop of 29,306. Accounting for the holiday, this was a slightly below average performance for the week.

However, this was the lowest number of claims for this week since April 2006, at the top of the housing/credit bubble. As a percentage of total eligible workers, this week was lower than the 2006 figure, and was the lowest since April 2000.

New Claims % of Eligible at Record Lows – Click to enlarge

This suggests an economy stretched to its limits by the distortions and missallocation of labor caused by QE.