Initial Claims Explode to Biggest Year to Year Increase Since Superstorm Sandy

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 317,184 in the week ending April 26, an increase of 18,002 (or 6.0 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 5,284 (or 1.8 percent) from the previous week. There were 301,622 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013. – DoL

Compared to the comparable week last year claims rose 5.3%.  This is an upward breakout of the range of year to year change so far in 2013.

Initial Claims Explode to Year to Year Gain – Click to enlarge

The seasonally adjusted headline number was 344,000. According to one major survey, the consensus of Wall Street economists was for a gain of only 315,000. The seasonally adjusted number is a fictitious number made up to purported smooth the trend to account for seasonal differences. While these numbers are a representation of the trend, they sometimes give false impressions. This week the headline impression and the actual trend were consistent.

The actual weekly change of an increase of 18,000 compared with the 10 year average for this week of a decline of -12,200.In this week last year the week to week change was a drop of -24,700. In that respect as well, the current reading was bad. However, this may be a result of a calendar factor, with Good Friday pushing some claimaints into the following week in areas where state unemployment offices were closed that day.

However, one week does not a trend make. The previous weekly readings were at the strongest levels since the top of the housing bubble. Before reaching any sweeping conclusions, we should wait and see what the data for the next few weeks brings.

One thing seems clear. While stocks have run away in a Fed printed bubble under QE3-4 since November 2012, jobs have not seen a similar benefit. A similar divergence developed in 2007.

Fed Printed Stock Bubble But Few Bubble Jobs – Click to enlarge