Whenever the manipulators need to boost the markets, they just crash the Dollar.
And what a dive we've had! As you can see from Dave Fry's Chart, the Dollar is down 7% since last summer and down 2.5% this year and that keeps stocks and commodities 2.5% higher – because we buy them with Dollars.
Keep in mind, at the same time you are buying IBM shares for $200, someone is buying the same shares for 20,400 Yen and another guy is buying them for 340 British Pounds and yet another guy is buying them for 280 Euros.
It's obvious that, if the value of the Pound or the Yen or the Euro changes, the price of IBM in those currencies will change to reflect the currrency valuation but Americans tend not to realize the same thing happens when the Dollar gets stronger or weaker too. Once you do realize this – you have a huge advantage in trading the Futures (and we have a Live Futures Workshop this afternoon at 1pm).
The Fed's easy-money policies keep the Dollar weak (because we're printing another Trillion of them each year and, in this economy, no one is using them – ie. no demand) and that has goosed the market by 7% since last summer, when the S&P was about 1,650 – about 10% lower than it is now.
That means that 75% of the gains in the S&P since last summer have been the result of a weak currency and have noting to do with a "strong" economy. Now THAT makes sense, doesn't it?
"THEY" had to tank the Dollar to get us over the 1,600 level, which was a very key technical off our consolidated bottom at 800 during the crash. It's no coincidence that we were hitting resistance there in May and pulling back to 1,560 and looking weak in July when, suddenly, the Fed went into a new round of crazy, which led to 6 months of fairly steady value erosion for every single Dollar you have worked for and saved your entire life.
It's kind of a tax on you – the Government has reduced the value (in International Terms) of EVERYTHING you have by 7% in order to transfer market wealth to the top 1%, who own 85% of all equities and, of course, who control pretty much 100% of all corporations, who are able to use their inflated stock prices as collateral to sell or borrow against (or acquire other companies). It's a fantastic game – if you're the one on the top of it!
It's also a great way for the Government to reduce their debt, which is mainly owed to foreign Governments like Japan and China. A weaker Dollar means our debt, which is priced in fixed Dollars can be paid back with less Yuan, Yen, Pounds and Euros. It's not that simple of course – Japan is racing us to the bottom as they try to devalue the Yen to reduce their own 200% debt to GDP ratio.
It is, however, a fantastic way for our Multinational Corporate Masters to cut our pay by 3.5%, since half of the S&P 500's revenues come from overseas, which means paying us in US dollars that have dropped 7% saves them half of that reduction on their balance sheets and that makes their earnings seem 3.5% higher (depending on how many US employees, of course) than they would be otherwise.
It's amazing how we villify Putin for essentially doing the exact same thing in Russia as the top 0.01% are doing to America – the only difference is, we haven't invaded Canada yet for their resources – but don't worry, there will be hostile takeovers down the road – look how quickly Blackberry was destroyed. Now we are messing with their oil and gas revenues with our "drill baby, drill" and pipeline policy – just like Putin did with the Ukraine before he invaded (allegedly). Maybe we'll just get the French Canadians to declare themselves a state and then we'll run in to support their right to choose…
As I said above, being aware of currency fluctuations makes us much better Futures Traders. This morining, for example, in our early morning Member Chat, we did a chart review and we had a good discussion about the 5% Rule™ and I pointed out to our Members that the Dollar was down 0.5% this morning and breaking below support, saying:
Dollar down to 79.19 is down 0.5% so I guess that's the big, BS news that's propping up the market. Nikkei hasn't reacted much to it yet, still 14,350 so shortable on that line (/NKD) but out if the Dollar bounces.
Overall, I'd say yesterday was low volume BS and we should see more downside today. S&P 1,880 (/ES) is still a good shorting line as is /NQ 3,600 and Dow 16,450 confirmed by /TF below 1,120. If we can't move up on a 0.5% Dollar drop – thats' not a good sign!
Already, as I'm writing this at 8:30, the Dollar is down to 79.10 but that's not stopping the slide in the Futures with the Nikkei at 14,275 (up $375 per contract), S&P Futures (/ES) 1,873 (up $350 per contract), Nasdaq 3,586 (up $280 per contract) and Dow 16,425 (up $125 per contract). That, as we like to say, pays for the Egg McMuffins this morning and that is what I will be teaching you how to do in our Live Futures Trading Workshop at 1pm today.
If you already made $1,130 trading 4 contracts in less than two hours this morning – by all means don't bother – I'm sure you have some shopping to do!
We're expecting more downside because, as noted on Dave Fry's SPY chart, yesterday's volume was ridiculously low and Monday's are always to be taken with a grain of salt, so we're throwing out the chart and focusing on the data and the data (earnings, etc) is not any better than it was on Friday, when we decided to move back to more cash – in anticipation of a bigger drop than the 1.25% we hit at yesterday's brief low.
We're not betting heavily to the downside – we've been burned too often to gamble on that. What we have done is cash out our non-hedged, directional longs at what we're pretty sure was an interim top and we'll see how things go from here. Meanwhile, playing the Futures is one of the many fun things we can do with CASH!!!
Futures allow us to make quick in and out trades with low friction and often we can make a few hundred Dollars very quickly. Occasionally, we get big winners, like last Thursday's call to short the Nikkei (/NKD) Futures at 14,500 and this morning, just 3 sessions later, we're already testing 14,250. At $5 per point, per contract, that's $1,250 for each contract in just 3 days. The call was there, for free, right in the morning post – don't say I never gave you nothin'….
We were also shorting oil at $100 that day and we have had a couple of rides down to $99 and, this morning, we're testing $100 again (/CL). Needless to say we're shorting it again as well. You can play along – it's a free trade idea – maybe you can buy a Membership with the winnings!
We're still looking for follow-through to the downside. Watch the Russell closely for a breakdown below the 200 dma (1,114) or the S&P below 1,865, which would be $450 per contract on our Futures play!
Hit movies power Disney in FQ2
04:31 PM ET · DIS
Stocks slide as momentum names resume weakness, Twitter -18%
04:20 PM ET
First Solar ups 2014 guidance
04:17 PM ET · FSLR
Api reporting drop in crude supplies. I can’t find the actual report, looks to be for pay.
Electronic Arts +12.3% AH on FQ4 beat, guidance, buyback
04:10 PM ET · EA
Whole Foods Market misses by $0.03, misses on revenue
04:07 PM ET · WFM
TripAdvisor misses by $0.01, misses on revenue
04:06 PM ET · TRIP
Not moving the needle much Burrben!
Samsung reportedly puts in soft component orders
03:52 PM ET · SSNLF
Twitter nears $32; Yelp, Pandora, YY also down big
03:27 PM ET · TWTR
Positive trends at J.C. Penney
03:24 PM ET · JCP
SouFun, E-House join selloff as Nomura warns of real estate bust
02:53 PM ET · SFUN
Capstone Turbine -13% as article foretells worse than expected quarter
02:35 PM ET · CPST
Quantum Fuel -42% after key competitor, largest customer team up
02:19 PM ET · QTWW
Trend-spotting in the restaurant industry
01:34 PM ET · CAKE
Game of Thrones delivers for HBO
01:18 PM ET · TWX
Dimon talks e-payments; new commodity chiefs named
01:17 PM ET · JPM
Gulf researchers spot deep-sea creatures living near Gulf spill site
12:59 PM ET · BP
Good read ahead of the Eia. Good to know is that Cushing might be low but totals are up. Similar to manipulating the y axis.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/wti-oil-rises-on-forecast-cushing-weeks-from-emptying.html
Google buys ad measurement tech provider
12:49 PM ET · GOOG
Russell not looking very healthy, closing below its 200 DMA for the first time since November 2012! It had been below a couple of times before, but bounced back in the afternoon. Not so lucky this time, closing on the LOD.
Stanford to Purge $18 Billion Endowment of Coal Stock
/CL not cooperating. I got stopped out around 100.12, but re-entered this morning on the cross below 100.50, now 100.37.
Overseas
06:00 AM ET
Wednesday’s economic calendar
12:00 AM ET
From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 5:50:13 AM
Fallon speaks with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks fell for a fourth day
as companies from Fiat SpA to Societe Generale SA posted profit
that missed estimates, and the U.S. said Ukraine should ignore
Russia’s calls to postpone a presidential election this month.
U.S. futures were little changed, while Asian shares slid.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1fSTTJ8
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 12:00:01 AM
The backlash over surging drug prices is starting to take hold.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1s1jnUC
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 5:33:55 AM
HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Europe’s largest
bank, said first-quarter profit fell 20 percent, meeting analyst
estimates, as gains from asset sales dwindled and investment-banking revenue slipped.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ophoJn
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 2:00:00 AM
German factory orders (GRIORTMM) unexpectedly fell in March, signaling that growth in Europe’s largest economy remains uneven.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1hwiqPa
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 4:05:24 AM
Investors tempted to Ukraine by the
prospect of a foreign bailout are sounding the retreat as deadly
clashes between government forces and separatists threaten to
overwhelm efforts to prop up the nation’s finances.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mB9JuG
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 3:10:36 AM
Societe Generale SA (GLE), the second-largest French bank by market value, reported a 13 percent decline in first-quarter profit after writing down goodwill at its Russian unit.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1lX1aaK
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 1:49:16 AM
China’s top security official said a
special anti-terrorism operation will begin after a third
violent attack this year at a railway station occurred in
Guangzhou, near the border with Hong Kong.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1hwirCI
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 1:59:49 AM
Mpho Mpshane can’t wait to escape the whiff of kerosene and the tupperware-munching rats in her car-sized shack in South Africa’s Diepsloot shantytown.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o49HLv
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 9:04:30 PM
Marissa Mayer is finally set to get a cash infusion from Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)’s nine-year investment in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. — along with the pressure of putting the money to work.
To read the entire article, go to http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/yahoo-s-alibaba-windfall-means-firepower-to-chase-google.html
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 2:50:35 AM
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which rode China’s emergence as an economic superpower over the last 15 years to become a massive online marketplace for everything from forks to forklifts, filed yesterday for what could become the largest U.S. initial public offering ever.
To read the entire article, go to http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/alibaba-files-for-us-public-offering-of-e-commerce-giant.html
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 4:36:38 AM
The case for European Central Bank action to curb the euro’s gains is getting stronger after the 18-nation currency jumped to within a half-cent of $1.40.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kKyfE3
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 5:00:01 PM
From the window of his construction trailer, Murat Sarayli has a prime vantage point on the promise and perils of the Turkish economy. Outside, sparks cascade from welding torches as workers labor to complete the steel skeleton of a $350 million hotel and conference center. Jets pass overhead, approaching and leaving Istanbul Ataturk Airport, less than a mile away.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1shGs7v
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 12:01:00 AM
Tarshema Brice hardly ranks among the world’s elite counterfeiters. But with the help of modern consumer technology, she developed an exacting system for crafting fake U.S. greenbacks.
To read the entire article, go to http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/mom-with-hp-printer-shows-the-digital-ease-of-bogus-cash.html
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 5:00:00 PM
The Chinese government is gaining an unlikely ally in its effort to overhaul the economy: striking Chinese workers.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1uwWeNL
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 9:18:55 PM
The U.S. is pressing for guilty pleas from the parent companies of banks under investigation, including Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), in a marked departure from the past, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o4aRXn
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 5:53:36 AM
Look who’s calling for a rebound in
Russian stocks.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1g7pWQ8
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 12:28:02 AM
The fortunes of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s billionaire co-founders have more than tripled this year as the company prepares for an initial public offering.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/RpwHqm
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 12:31:04 AM
China’s weakening property market
poses an increasing danger to local governments, threatening to
strain their finances and intensify an economic slowdown.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jxlDCg
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 5:00:01 PM
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s title as
China’s dominant bourse may prove short-lived as policy changes
boost its counterpart in Shanghai.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1oovWJd
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 9:47:51 AM
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), which stood
by Steven A. Cohen last year as his SAC Capital Advisors LP bore
the brunt of a massive insider trading probe, has come to the
billionaire’s aid again.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mx8ixh
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 7:25:24 AM
Nickel is poised to rally a further 20
percent this year as Indonesia’s ban on exports of ore push the
market toward a global shortage and unrest increases in Ukraine,
a survey of analysts and traders shows.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rX0jH4
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 5:01:03 AM
Sales of appliances made by manufacturers such as Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) and Electrolux AB (ELUXB) are poised to rise this year as Americans replace aging machines.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1uzgRc8
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From Bloomberg, May 7, 2014, 12:00:00 AM
Jeremy Stein, in one of his last
speeches as a Federal Reserve governor, warned that the central
bank still may face more bouts of market volatility as it winds
down the most aggressive easing in its history.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qc3UW5
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 7:06:05 PM
New Zealand employers hired workers at
a faster pace than economists forecast in the three months
through March and more people entered the workforce, adding to
the case for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qc4YsY
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From Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, 10:27:13 PM
New Zealand’s central bank gave notice
that continued currency strength in the face of weakening prices
for the country’s exports would raise the chances of
intervention, prompting a decline in the kiwi.
To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1fNG3HQ
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