Tempting Tuesday – Weak Dollar Props Up the Markets
by phil - May 6th, 2014 8:14 am
Whenever the manipulators need to boost the markets, they just crash the Dollar.
And what a dive we've had! As you can see from Dave Fry's Chart, the Dollar is down 7% since last summer and down 2.5% this year and that keeps stocks and commodities 2.5% higher – because we buy them with Dollars.
Keep in mind, at the same time you are buying IBM shares for $200, someone is buying the same shares for 20,400 Yen and another guy is buying them for 340 British Pounds and yet another guy is buying them for 280 Euros.
It's obvious that, if the value of the Pound or the Yen or the Euro changes, the price of IBM in those currencies will change to reflect the currrency valuation but Americans tend not to realize the same thing happens when the Dollar gets stronger or weaker too. Once you do realize this – you have a huge advantage in trading the Futures (and we have a Live Futures Workshop this afternoon at 1pm).
The Fed's easy-money policies keep the Dollar weak (because we're printing another Trillion of them each year and, in this economy, no one is using them – ie. no demand) and that has goosed the market by 7% since last summer, when the S&P was about 1,650 – about 10% lower than it is now.
That means that 75% of the gains in the S&P since last summer have been the result of a weak currency and have noting to do with a "strong" economy. Now THAT makes sense, doesn't it?
"THEY" had to tank the Dollar to get us over the 1,600 level, which was a very key technical off our consolidated bottom at 800 during the crash. It's no coincidence that we were hitting resistance there in May and pulling back to 1,560 and looking weak in July when, suddenly, the Fed went into a new round of crazy, which led to 6 months of fairly steady value erosion for every single Dollar you have worked for and saved your entire life.
It's kind…
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Prechter On Market Rally
by ilene - September 30th, 2010 11:20 am
Video (Part 1): Prechter On Market Rally
(Note: This interview was originally recorded on September 20, 2010)
In the two videos below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about extreme readings in various indicators that support his bear-market forecast.
Video (Part 2): Prechter: Ominous Pattern in the DJIA
Get Up to Speed on Robert Prechter’s Latest Perspective — Download this Special FREE Report Now.
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Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!
by Chart School - July 1st, 2010 5:13 pm
Mish is a picture of optimism compared to Robert Prechter (of Elliott Wave Fame). Robert Prechter is wrong, instead of dropping to 1,000, the Dow may only drop to 5,000, and even that may be too pessimistic in Mish’s eyes. - Ilene
Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!
Courtesy of Mish
I don’t know about you but I am psyched. The prospects of an ongoing party for another decade are extremely good as the following chart shows.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 to Present
click on chart for sharper image
Market participants put on their party hats and started cheering in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. They have been cheering pretty much nonstop ever since.
Admittedly there was a bit of a party lag between early 2005 and late 2008 but the party hats have been working overtime since mid-2008 as shown below.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – October 2010 to Present
click on chart for sharper image
Lost Decades Comparison
Please bear in mind that some pessimists liken the above behavior to a period of stunning underperformance of the Japanese Nikkei Index over the last two decades.
Japan’s Two Lost Decades
click on chart for sharper image
The Perpetually Optimistic Mish
Being the ever-optimist that I am, I want to quickly point out that while Japan essentially went straight down over two decades, the US by comparison has put in stunning outperformance by going nowhere.
Indeed, the Dow Jones Index is remarkably sitting exactly where it was in April of 1999, over 10 years ago while the Nikkei over the same timeframe fell by about 50%.
Optimists such as myself have only one thing to say: Hallelujah!
Meanwhile doom and gloomers like Robert Prechter think the Dow will fall to 1,000.
To that I say "Poppycock" (pretty harsh language indeed for those who know me well).
By my optimistic comparison, I think the Dow’s downside is 5,000. That is a stunning 400% more optimistic appraisal of the current state of affairs than Prechter.
Furthermore, I freely admit that the DOW, instead of dropping, just may meander around 10,000 for another decade.
Wow. Except for public pension plan assumptions, imagine the parties we can have over that!
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DJIA’s 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?
by Chart School - June 23rd, 2010 3:00 pm
DJIA’s 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?
By Elliott Wave International
Moving averages are one of the most widely followed indicator in technical analysis. Simply put, when the price of an index or stock stays above a particular price moving average line on a chart, that price level serves as support -- a level where buyers reside. If the price falls below a moving average line and "can’t" break through from the underside, this price level is a line of resistance -- a price level where sellers hover. That’s an easy explanation of moving averages for you.
A commonly watched line is the 200-day moving average.
After the DJIA fell below its 200-day moving average in May, prices remained mainly below the line until June 15, when the market rose 213 points. But, as this chart from Elliott Wave International’s June 16 Short Term Update shows, the NYSE volume has remained muted:
"There was no follow-through today. More stocks closed down than up on the day on the NYSE, within the S&P 500 and also for the DJ Composite. Today’s Big Board volume was similarly slow relative to yesterday. …" -- Steven Hochberg, Short Term Update, June 16, 2010
With a lack of buying conviction, how long will the stock indexes remain above the 200-day moving average?
For the answer, you need to look at the DJIA’s Elliott wave structure. It strongly suggests the market will move in a definite direction in a matter of days or weeks.
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Learn to integrate Elliott wave analysis with other technical disciplines. Read the FREE Ultimate Technical Analysis eBook to discover some of the favorite technical analysis methods used by the analysts at Elliott Wave International. Learn more and download your free, 50-page technical analysis ebook here.
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Monthly Trade Set-Up
by Chart School - June 12th, 2010 6:08 pm
Monthly Trade Set-Up
Courtesy of Allan
Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with the Monthly Trend Model and Elliott Wave analysis courtesy of Advanced GET:
Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL requirements [these four have already been met]:
(1) Measured 4th wave;
(2) Oscillator back to zero line (bottom study);
(3) False bar stochastic Sell Signal;
(4) Break of trend regression channels.
What is missing, so far, is the Trend Model Sell Signal. But on a Monthly chart, this will always be a lagging indicator with way too much lag to be of any worth in trading. We have seen in the last two monthly bars how that Monthly Trend Line has attracted prices, but repelled them both times. Will the next time finally break the back of this last remaining vestige of the 2009 bull market?
I find it fascinating how this particular trade set up works on all time frames. I used it last week on an hourly chart that I sent out to subscribers that just nailed a mid-day reversal. Here today, we see how it applies to a much larger time frame. I have been using this trade set-up since 1995 and it works just as well now as it did the 20th Century. For our purposes, giving us an edge for the next few months will have to do.
******
Here’s Allan’s weekly chart which helps illustrate his point: the weekly chart has already signaled a sell; it takes longer for the monthly charts to change courses compared to the weekly charts. – Ilene
Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.
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11 Commonplace Market Views: True or Myth?
by ilene - February 17th, 2010 6:52 pm
11 Commonplace Market Views: True or Myth?
By Susan C. Walker, courtesy of Elliott Wave International
"Cash on the sidelines is bullish for stocks." Have you ever heard some stock market pundit utter these words? Have you ever wondered if the statement were true? Read this item from the latest issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, and you’ll wonder no longer:
Myth — Cash on the sidelines is bullish for stocks. This refrain rang like a gong all the way through the declines of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. In February 2000, when mutual fund cash hit 4.2% (compared to 3.8% in November), The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast issued its “cash is king” advice. Once again, the word on the street is that there is way too much “cash on the sidelines” for stocks to fall precipitously. This chart shows net cash available to investors plotted beneath the DJIA. In December 2007, available net cash expanded to a new high, besting all extremes since at least 1992, a 15-year time span. Despite the presence of this mountain of cash, the DJIA lost more than half its entire value over the next 15 months. Indeed, as the chart shows, cash remained high right as the stock market entered the most intense part of the crash in 2008. Available cash does correlate with the market’s moves, but the market is in charge, not the cash.
--The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Jan. 29, 2010
Now take a look at these 10 statements and decide if they are true:
- Earnings drive stock prices.
- Small stocks are the place to be.
- Worry about inflation rather than deflation.
- It’s enough to simply beat the market.
- To do well investing, you have to diversify.
- The FDIC can protect depositors.
- It’s bullish when the market ignores bad news.
- Bubbles can unwind slowly.
- People can make money speculating.
- News and events drive the markets.
Bob Prechter and our other analysts have debunked each of these statements as a market myth. You can discover how we exposed these ideas as myths, and in turn make more informed decisions about your investing.
We’ve gathered the writings that expose these 10 statements as market myths in our 33-page eBook, called Market Myths Exposed. They come from two of our premier publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, as well as two of our books, Prechter’s Perspective and The…
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Why You Should Care About DJIA Priced in Gold
by ilene - January 10th, 2010 11:12 pm
Why You Should Care About DJIA Priced in Gold
"The Real Dow" has proven to be a good leading indicator for nominal DJIA.
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Dramatic drop" did indeed follow: Between October 2007 and March 2009, the DJIA lost 53%, high to low.
For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 118-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.
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Thrilling Thursday Morning – Jobless Recovery Edition
by phil - July 2nd, 2009 8:26 am
As I mentioned yesterday, the ADP numbers were not good.
Now it’s one thing to see something happen and quite another to do something about it. One of the reasons we like to be in cash is we get to wait for the market to do something silly so we can bet against it. Yesterday was a gift as the Dow climbed all the way to 8,577 at 10:30 and we gave it a few minutes for the Crude Inventories, which were a disappointment for the oil bulls and our first Trade Alert of the day went out to Members at 10:35 saying: "OIH $95 puts are a good deal at $1.58." These trades don’t happen in a vacuum – we had been watching OIH all week and decided it was a safer short than USO, which also sold off nicely but the OIH was no slouch with the $95 puts finishing the day at $2.30 (up 45%).
Just a few minutes later, at 10:43, we were able to take advantage of the DIA $84 puts at .84, which finished the day at $1.08 (up 28%) and we were able to get back to cash while speculating on TOT $55 puts at $1.20 and BG $60 puts for $1.30 into today as we expected some downside follow-through to grip Europe, who were overly complacent yesterday. I wanted to mention this as I hear from many traders who are getting hit hard because they feel the need to stay "invested" for fear of missing something and the only thing you are missing in this market by not having a cash position is a good night’s sleep. Having cash allows us to pick our spots, make money and get back out to cash. We’re not day-traders but we sure as hell take our profits if we hit our goals in a day!
We’re still waiting for the market to pick a real direction but there are some things we do know and one of them is that oil is massively over-priced. AAA just released a report stating that the peak for gasoline prices has already passed and estimates that auto trips will be down 2.6% this summer. As I keep saying, people simply CAN’T afford to pay these pumped-up prices, no matter how much speculators wish it to be otherwise. Clearly the dumb money is following Goldman et al into…
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Q2 Tuesday – Ending With A Whimper, Not A Bang
by phil - June 30th, 2009 8:27 am
What happened to our great rally?
We started the quarter off well enough, with the Dow at 7,522 and S&P at 787 on April 1st, we flew right up to 8,000 on the Dow and 840 on the S&P the next day but then it took us the rest of the month to gain 200 more points and the last day of May we finished at 8,500 Dow, S&P 920 - nothing to write home about on the whole. June 1st was very exciting as we made all our gains for the month that day, flying up to Dow 8,800, S&P 944 but that's where we called a top and cashed out and it's been pretty dull ever since as we've bounced up and down between 8,800 and 8,300 on the Dow and 940 and 900 on the S&P, waiting for a breakout one way or the other.
It's dull to stay in cash, it's like going to the track and not betting on any races. We really thought we'd get a proper indicator by now and we had fun betting the downturn from the middle of June but even that fizzled and left us back in cash as we head into the holiday weekend. On the bright side, the VIX has come down substantially and we are now able to pick up long options again at reasonable prices. This will be fantastic and give us some great leverage but we still need the market to pick an actual direction.
At least now we have earnings coming so we can evaluate various sectors and place some bets for Q3 but index buying has ruled Q2 and the performance of individual stocks has been washed away as a factor as machine trading has yanked the broader market up and down on a daily basis. It used to matter how IBM or INTC was doing as an individual company, now the entire Nasdaq can fly to the moon and take PALM, AAPL and RIMM with it, even though it's not very likely that all can do well in the same space for very long (remember MOT?). We are no longer deluding ourselves that 2Bn people in Asia and Africa will be sporting the newest smart phones on the beach next summer yet the pie in the sky valuations persist, as if there is infinite room for all competitors to sell…
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Monday Market Madness – Last One in Q2!
by phil - June 29th, 2009 8:18 am
What a nice, quiet weekend.
There was very little news of note and, despite a nervous sell-off in early Asian trading, the markets are back to their usual pre-market positions of UP. The Dow is up 100 points since 2:30 am, the Nas is up 2.5% as is the S&P and the Russell. Oil has been jammed all the way back to $70 after falling below $68.50 in early morning trading and the dollar has been pressed back down to 95 Yen while it once again costs more than $1.405 to buy a Euro and $1.66 to buy a pound. It's no wonder we have such success playing the middle – "THEY" don't allow the market to go anywhere else!
I really thought this morning they'd have trouble holding oil up as the IEA cut its 5-yer oil forecast for EVERY year through 2012 by 3 Million barrels a day (3.5%). In fact, according to the IEA, oil will not return to 2008's consumption level of 85.6Mbd UNTIL 2012. “The deep economic recession that has spread worldwide in the past year has taken a severe toll on oil demand,” the IEA said in the report, updating estimates made in December. “This marks a break after several years of strong oil demand growth.” In its “lower GDP scenario,” which assumes that a rebound in the global economy will be 3 percent a year, the IEA said global oil demand could fail to reach last year’s levels by 2014, standing at 84.92 million barrels a day, 6.34 million barrels less than predicted in December.
Bloomberg led off this morning with the headline "Commodity Rally May End as Supply Rises, Speculators Sell Bets" but not all speculators seem to have gotten the message as speculation proceeds apace. “Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.” The World Bank forecast for this year’s economic contraction to be 2.9 percent, rather than the 1.7 percent decline previously anticipated, may curb sales just as producers expand output in anticipation that the worst is over.
Hedge funds and other large speculators are holding a net 653,915 contracts betting…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site