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Wednesday, January 14, 2026

25-54 Labor Force vs. Employment; Men vs. Women; Cyclical vs. Structural

Courtesy of Mish.

Recovery talk goes on and on. Assuming there is a genuine recovery as opposed to a financial recovery, where would one most likely find evidence?

I propose evidence should be apparent in those out of school, yet not retired. More specifically, we should see evidence in the age 25-54 demographic.

Let’s take a look.

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 1990-Present

The participation rate is the percentage of people who are either employed or actively seeking work.

Where is the recovery?

Some might accuse me of cherry picking a timeframe on the above chart. OK. Here is a longer-term chart.

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 1950-Present

Women entered the workforce en masse in the 1960s to 1990s. Leveling off is understandable, but why the decline?

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