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Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Negotiating a Diplomatic Solution in Ukraine: How and Why That Will Happen

Courtesy of Mish.

A very close high school friend, Dave Wise, published an article Towards a Diplomatic Solution in Ukraine on a John Hopkins University site.

Dave happens to be friend “F1” who I referred to on Tuesday in Annexation by Force; Three-Part Reality; Actions vs. Words; Paper Legalities.

Dave believes the solution to this involves the UN and international law.

In an email exchange Dave commented …

The reality is that the international community overwhelming does not recognize the annexation. Annexation by force is no longer how the world does business and that is what is at stake here. That is why it cannot be allowed to stand.

He repeated that viewpoint in depth, in the link at the top. I maintained (and still do) a Three-Part Reality.

Three-Part-Reality

  1. Crimea is again part of Russia whether the world community likes it or not.
  2. The annexation will stand.
  3. The only thing that can change the above outcome is another major war.

Can You Get There From Here?

Dave states the “internal transfer of Crimea to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954 was essentially an internal transfer within the USSR and should have probably been undone given the long history of Crimea and the fact that Crimea is the location of numerous important Russian military bases, not the least of which being the home port of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopo.

On that we certainly agree.

Yet, under Dave’s “diplomatic solution” thesis, Russia is entitled to Crimea only if recognized by international law, including an “orderly  secession” in accordance with the Ukrainian constitution, in which “Crimea would be established as a protectorate of the United Nations before a legitimate vote returned Crimea to Russia.

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