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Tuesday, May 21, 2024

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  1. Phil

    Learning/Newbie – Yes, you are!  As to TNA or TZA – TODAY it would be TNA until Friday or until the Dollar gets back over 79.50, then back to TZA but now I'd watch that 840 line in the Futures, which is about $65 on TNA and that's what's got to hold.  Notice the FACT in the news item above on Merkel is a lot less than the RUMOR already – now we're seeing how far the RUMOR of $3.5Tn can take us but I think that this is already baked into the numbers in large part and what we're really finding out is the level below which investors will be disappointed.  

    26K/Jabob – So ridiculous out of 30M shares.  

    CLDX/Morx – Well, you're bullish so why not just take your Aug $4s ($1.50) and spent $1 to roll them to Nov $3s ($2.50) and, when the Aug $3s you sold burn off their premium (now about .30 at $2.30), you can roll them out to the Nov $4s ($1.75) or even the Nov $5s ($1.30) if you are feeling braver.  Alternatively, you could buy 1x the Nov $4s for $1.75 and roll the short Aug $3s ($2.30) to 2x the Aug $5s ($1.10) which is spending 1x $1.95 to roll yourself into 2x $1 spreads (less what you already collected).  

    Carriers/StJ – They may not like it but they still need it as they'd rather have a low-margin or small loss customer than no customer at all with a $1,000 acquisition cost per subscriber.  I'm sure the Telcos hope and pray that someone unseats AAPL soon but I think that's what the music companies were hoping about ITunes – after a while, they learn to live with it.  

    Housing/Ink – You caught that one too!  

    VXX/Peedle – It is an ETN and TVIX is chasing people out of VXX.  Maybe for good reason – it may be every bit as broken as TVIX but volume on VXX is 3x TVIX and it's been around a long time so I'm betting (see move above) that it's just panic selling by people who are reacting to TVIX news without differentiating the products.  All this money running out of Ultra-Shorts is causing the VIX to get bought up as these funds unwind their ultra-short positions so it's a self-feeding loop, which is why I wanted to roll for time, as well as positon. 

    Fake doesn't matter/Exec – Well isn't there a multi-Billion Dollar porn industry that proves that premise?  

    OPTT/1020 – Sure, I know those guys, they've been around for ages and still can't make money.  Their new Buoys show promise but miles away from profits.  I was really into using wave power for a while and worked with a couple of companies working on solutions.  I wanted to install platforms that would move up and down with the waves and power hydraulic pumps as well as using fluid pressure systems by using discarded tankers (200,000 tons) and letting the tide pick them up and then drop them down to compress fluid systems.  Unfortunately, big jobs like that require Government funding and, at the time we were working on it, our man Bush came to town and defunded everything that was aimed at long-term alt energy projects.  As to OPTT, they are working on a right-sized solution but their constant need for funding has led them into a lot of dilutive agreements with partners.  Their biggest issue is their cost/kWh is about .15 and with coal and nat gas cheap – they have no chance of getting momentum and, without momentum, they can't mass-produce and, without mass production, they can't get the cost/kWh down to a more realistic level.  And, of course, look how limited their sales targets are – it's not like they haven't already spoken to everyone who has oceans they can drop buoys into, right?  That means that, unless and until their price point makes significant improvement OR the price of alternatives goes significantly higher ($200 oil plus coal and nat gas keeping pace and no major improvements in solar) then there's not much chance of a significant uptick in sales and they will continue to lose money and dilute on a regular basis.  So, yes, I do have an opinion on them!  8)  

    Forex/StJ – Excellent point!  

    AAPL store – It's just speculators who were buying machines to sell in China running into lower than expected demand so they are giving up on their plans to make a double on each IPad.  I don't think it really speaks ill of AAPL.

    And what Peedle said! 



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