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May 30th, 2014 at 10:54 am
You're welcome DC.
SHLD/8800, Pirate – You are dealing with a master market manipulator who purposely drives the stock down whenever he wants to buy shares and drives it up when he wants to sell. It's gotten way more convoluted now that they've begun moving properties into their Seritage subsidiary – it's like a shell game and only Eddie knows where the little ball is going to be at any given time.
No way do I short them, ever. I just like to buy them when they are cheap (play with Eddie, not against him).
June 10th/Snow, Wombat – I think we're being propped up into the close of May and that the selling will commence next week (or today, so far) and, if it doesn't by the 10th of June (Tuesday), then we'll probably remain propped up into earnings and, of course, we love those earnings plays anyway.
You're very welcome Craigs. Hopefully you have a good amount of sideline cash – just in case. That's one of the other keys to our success – keeping a lot of cash handy is a hedge unto itself. We didn't have any gigantic positions – 5 contracts here, 10 contracts there – and spread across 20 positions using just $4,000 of our $500,000 cash and not even 20% of our $2M+ margin (PM). By not being greedy, we remain flexible and, as noted before – the only way we end up being "forced" to actually own a stock is AFTER it drops 20%(ish). That also lets you ride out a lot of downturns.
DRWI/Albo – I wonder if last-mile microwave may be losing out in favor of what UBNT is offering (though they are off 2.5% today).
I do like DRWI's growth but, unfortunately, 68% of their revenue comes from NOK and that makes people very nervous – as it should! It's never good when one client is almost all of your business – even if they don't leave you – they can squeeze your margins by threatening to do so. So it's a gamble that they keep NOK and/or they find some more customers but it's been 14 years – I think their tech may be aging faster than their sales people are improving.
Thanks for contributing to the Shadow Fund DC!
You're welcome Jasu, congrats.