Courtesy of Mish.
With the downing of a another Ukraine helicopter by pro-Russia rebels, one would think tensions in the region would be up. Yet, analysts seem excited by a symbolic move from Putin.
Bloomberg reports Ukraine Rebels Down Chopper as Putin Makes Concessions.
Pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine shot down a government helicopter in violation of a cease-fire, killing nine troops just hours after President Vladimir Putin met a key European Union demand to help end months of fighting.
Separatists downed an Mi-8 chopper with a shoulder-fired missile in the eastern city of Slovyansk at about 5 p.m. local time, killing everyone on board, a spokesman for the Defense Ministry, Vladyslav Seleznyov, said on his Facebook page.
Earlier today, Putin asked lawmakers in Moscow to rescind the authorization they gave him on March 1 to use force in Ukraine, a conciliatory gesture that sent shares and the ruble higher before he traveled to EU-member Austria. The EU yesterday demanded Russia overturn the mandate, which helped fuel months of volatility in Russian and Ukrainian markets. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the Russian leader was trying to stabilize Ukraine after peace talks started yesterday.
“This is most certainly long-awaited positive news in the Ukrainian crisis, but by no means is the Ukrainian crisis over,” Lilit Georgian, a senior analyst at Ihs Global Insight, said by e-mail. “The Russian move is rather symbolic, considering the likelihood of a direct intervention has not been high anyway. Moreover, Moscow could safeguard its interests through the armed pro-Russian insurgents, as well as through economic means.”
Rather symbolic, or completely meaningless? If Putin never intended to invade Ukraine, and I believe he never did, then rescinding the authorization to use force was meaningless.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel told members of her party yesterday that Russia faces full economic sanctions at a June 26-27 EU summit unless it takes verifiable steps to calm the crisis in Ukraine by Friday, according to two people present at the meeting.
Ukraine remains to be convinced that Putin’s moves are more than a tactical retreat to avoid broader sanctions, Yuriy Yakymenko, head of political research at the Razumkov Center, said by phone from Kiev.
Definition of “De-escalation”
“If rebels stop their attacks on Ukrainian government troops, if they stop taking hostages, if Russian mercenaries leave Ukraine, if weapons are taken back to Russia, then we’d say that the process of de-escalation has started,” said Yakymenko.
If Yakymenko implies all of those need to happen, don’t expect de-escalation any time soon. If he means any of those, there may be de-escalation over time.
Merkel’s Misguided Threat
The German threat of “full economic sanctions at a June 26-27 EU summit” is either a foolish bluff or economic silliness.
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