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Flip Flopin’ Thursday – Argentina Makes Us All Cry

I warned you about Argentina! 

We discussed them way back in December as they faked their own GDP data, that it was nothing more than window-dressing to keep them from LOOKING like they were in default – even though they were clearly heading that way.  

So it should come as no surprise that, as the deadline finally comes, there is no surprising rescue for the World's 26th largest economy ($477Bn vs $499Bn for Norway, $394Bn for Austria, $385Bn for Thailand and $248Bn for Greece).  Since it's not a surprise, we took the opportunity this morning to go long in the Futures, as the 1% dip around 4am seemed overdone.  I sent out a special Alert to all of our Members, saying:

Still, I like /TF for a bullish over the 1,130 line (testing now) and /YM at 16,700 and /ES 1,950 for bounces but VERY TIGHT STOPS if any of them fail.

NDX WEEKLYFortunately, they did not fail and already (8am) we have /TF 1,135 (up $500 per contract), /YM 16,732 (up $160 per contract) and /ES 1,955 (up $250 per contract) and our Egg McMuffins are paid for and those trades are now off the table (tight stops at least), as we expect more selling at the open!  

It's nice to play the Futures to offset bearish bets, like the SQQQ (ultra-short Nasdaq) trade we discussed in yesterday's morning post and the QQQ weekly $96 puts we added for .22 in yesterday's live Member Chat ahead of the Fed – as we expected the statement would disappoint.  Those should come out well this morning and going long on the Futures locks in those potential gains for us.  

Now, getting back to Argentina, ARGT is UP 32% this year and that is just silly so ARGT makes a nice short at $23.20 and you can, in fact, buy the Oct $23 puts for $1.45 and, if they give back that 32%, they'll be back to $19 and you'll have $4+ for a $2.55 gain (175%) – that's a fun way to play it.  

I discussed other ways to play the market yesterday on Money Talk, where we reviewed my Trade of the Year (AAPL), which is already at $104,650 from the $24,000 initial cash outlay so up $80,650 (336%) in 6 months (March is when I last went on the show- we picked the trade for our Memmbers in January – you can become a Member here if you want to get picks like this every day). 

Since the trade was only designed to max out at $150,000 in Jan 2016 – even though it's on track for another $45,000, we decided to take the quick 336% off the table and wait for a pullback to re-enter a more aggressive AAPL spread (stay tuned for that announcement), where we can use just a portion of our profits to make far more than $45K if all goes well.  For now, in line with our market outlook – CASH IS KING!  

For yestereday's TV spot, we also discussed a similar percentage play on GTAT but, much more importantly, we discussed that SQQQ hedge I keep reminding you of, using LULU as a bullish offset to pay for the $20,000 portfolio protection.  Hopefully today's market action will remind people how important it is to have a hedge like this protecting their portfolios.

CASH!!! has been a fantastic protector of our portfolios and yesterday, our Long-Term Portfolio officially crossed the +20% mark for the year, even as our Short-Term Portfolio popped 15%, which is very nice since the STP is there to protect the LTP, so making money on both ends is a big bonus for us!  Our other Virtual Portfolios will be evaluated today but none are heavily invested – but that doesn't mean we're willing to lose the money we do have committed.  

With the Dollar popping 2% this month, our sideline cash is doing better than our positions and that's NOT the kind of trend you want to see if you are a market bull.  HOWEVER, we're not expecting too deep a correction before the Central Banksters rush in to save us (the top 1%) yet again with yet another free money scheme – God bless their black little hearts!  

Be careful out there, 

- Phil


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  1. A ray of hope from the supreme court, Hobby lobby and citizens united, dissent matters.

  2. Oil Lines

    R3 – 103.65
    R2 – 102.65
    R1 – 101.13
    PP – 100.14
    S1 – 98.62
    S2 – 97.63
    S3 – 96.11

  3. Apparently, the early Model S had some issues:

    Edmunds' wrap up includes the list below, with details of 28 "service campaigns" that were not part of the regularly scheduled maintenance. Their 2013 Model S went through four drive units, a battery replacement and at least one screen replacement, along with replacing all 20 lug nuts when the dealer noticed they "were beginning to swell". That's a new one on us. [...]

    Edmunds points out that its 2013 example was an early production model, so several of the fixes were made as running changes on later models, and that most of the repairs were made during the same dealer visit, with only two of those requiring the car to be left overnight. But for a scant 17 months, that's a laundry list of repairs, and Edmunds sums it up thusly: 

    Bottom Line: The Model S is a fast, comfortable and technologically brilliant luxury sedan, but numerous problems with its touchscreen, tires and drivetrain make it hard to recommend.


    Nice try but CMS isn't the government and I can assure you as I have dealt with them for years they need to go. Extremely inefficient, hard to believe they are more than an ancient computer with older software.

  5. TSLA model S

    STJ I tried to point out last year that the car was having lots of problems and in spite of the spin on feedback the car was (NOT RECOMENDED) by Consumer Reports.

  6. Phil / PWE – is down on accounting issues.  what do you think?  would you double down here?  good yield.  recommended in Barrons back in June.  thanks. 

  7. Present fact; still has tire problems, TSLA latest blame is caused by regenerative braking. Lots of cars have that without issue. Not bothering to find a link but I am not making this up, personally I have never seen a TSLA!

  8. Phil/WFM … still ok to enter that play you mentioned yesterday … I see it is down nicely .. looking at eps FY'14 of $1.55 est, if we assume 10% growth (organic, pardon the pun, and buybacks impact) for FY'15 it would make that $1.70 .. with Price now $37 the P/E would be 22 .. still a bit rich? Of course the play you mention has a lower breakeven point where the P/E is about 18 … thanks

  9. should we reload on the bounce plays from this morning


  10. AAPL/Phil- What about the recent Jan 2016 80/100 BCS with the that you recommended as recently as last week I think? I assume you will be keeping that one in play for now?

  11. Good morning Phil, what is your current outlook on TEX for a new play?


  12. Good morning!

    Ginsberg/Shadow – Yeah but she's 81, friggin' Thomas is 66, Roberts just 60.  Kennedy 77, Breyer 75 – if the next President is a Republican, the Supreme Court can write laws that will destroy this country for decades to come.  

    TSLA/Shadow – It seems to me that Panasonic dipped their toe in with last week's $200M announcement and, when that went well, they bumped it up 10x.  This looks like a real partnership, or at least a very good fake partnership.  

    PWE/Terra – I saw that but please remind me on weekend as I want to dig into what exactly those issues are.  Certainly it's a good company to be able to pick up cheap – unless the issues are very serious, of course.  

    WFM/DM – You may want to give them until next week and let the downgrade police have a crack at them.  Hard to tell today with everything down – don't forget they are pushing Europe and probably distracted and food costs have been all over the place this year.  I think one problem they are having now, that may persist, is that other "fresh" food has come down in price quite a lot last Q but not theirs, since they buy local at more fixed prices.   My bull premise on them early last year was that food costs had gone up so much everywhere else, that WFM didn't seem so expensive – now they are on the other end of the bell curve and it won't reverse all that quickly looking at ag prices. 

    Bounce plays/Tommy – I think we may get some sharp selling at the bell – let's let things play out first.  

    AAPL/Craigs – If you have AAPL open, you really should have SQQQ as a backup.  In our LTP, we have a small spread (5) that I'm not at all worried about as I'm happy to DD and roll and DD again.  In the Income Portfolio, we have 35 short Oct $84.29 calls covering our 70 2016 spreads – so no worries there.  

    Cramer's in a suit – markets must be in trouble.  He should be in hiding – he told people to avoid TWTR and go long YUM – and that was just this week!  

    July Challenger Job-Cut Report+49% to 46,887 from 31,434 in June.

    Exxon shares slip despite earnings beat, as production falls

    • Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -1.4% premarket after Q2 earnings rose 28% on strength in its exploration and refining segments and easily beat expectations, but total production fell.
    • Earnings in XOM's exploration and production business rose 25% Y/Y to $7.88B, helped by higher prices and a $1.2B boost tied to divestitures in Hong Kong and other items.
    • Refining and marketing earnings surged 80% to $711M, as weaker refining margins were offset by lower operating expenses, increased petroleum sales and other impacts.
    • Q2 production fell 5.7% Y/Y to 3.8M boe/day; excluding the expiry of its Abu Dhabi onshore concession, the decline was 2.3%.
    • The average price XOM receives for its crude oil rose 3% in the U.S. and 5% internationally.

    SodaStream roundup: Upgrade and earnings call shot at GMCR

    • SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA) is upgraded by Barclays to an Equal Weight rating from Underweight.
    • The company's Q2 results topped expectations yesterday and execs were full of confidence over a potential competing product from Coca-Cola and Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) which they seem to hint won't meet consumer expectations.
    • CEO Daniel Birnbaum:"So here there is a philosophical departure between us and say Coca-Cola or Green Mountain and we have to play this out. First of all, I’d love to see their product and I don’t know why it’s been delayed, but we want to see the product, we want to see that it works, because we can also tell stories."
    • SODA earnings call transcript
    • SODA flat in premarket trading.

    3D Systems -13.7% after Q2 miss; SSYS, XONE, VJET also off

    • After accounting for the Simbionix acquisition and other factors, 3D Systems (NYSE:DDD) is hiking its 2014 revenue guidance by $5M to $700M-$740M (consensus is at $713.8M). EPS guidance of $0.73-$0.85 is reiterated (consensus is at $0.81).
    • Q2 results were hurt by a 24% Q/Q drop in consumer revenue to $7.4M, something 3D blames on "delayed new products availability." Competition and a slower-than-expected pace to consumer 3D printing adoption might also be factors.
    • Also hurting: Gross margin fell 370 bps Q/Q and 400 bps Y/Y. 3D attributes the GM drop to "the transitional effects of concentrated new product launches as well as the absorption of legacy products obsolescence and manufacturing expansion costs."
    • Total product revenue (both printers and materials) +20% Y/Y to $100M, services +38% to $51.5M. Materials revenue +30%, printer units +126% (mix shift towards cheaper printers), healthcare revenue +46% to $27.5M.
    • Spenging remains aggressive: GAAP SG&A spend +39% to $50.3M, R&D +84% to $17.7M.
    • Peers are falling in sympathy: Stratasys (NASDAQ:SSYS) -4.1%, ExOne (NASDAQ:XONE)-7.2%, Voxeljet (NYSE:VJET) -9.6%.
    • Q2 resultsPR

  13. Let's try a Webex Meeting if anyone is interested – we can look at the Futures Live.

  14. XOM down to 100.97, nice!

    Phil, how far do you think this follows through? Out Aug 100 puts looking to be up 25% this morning, sell into the initial move?

  15. I had posted this late this morning. 

  16. That should say "Our Aug 100 puts.."

  17. i am trying to join the webex

  18. TEX/Pwright – No new positions until the dust settles on this dip.  

    XOM/Jeff – I'd put a stop at .75 and HOPE they go lower but HOPE is not an investing stragegy, at $1+ I'd like to get 1/2 out.  We don't have enough time to screw around – STP and $25KP

  19. AMD/ Phil .. have you any thoughts on this stock Phil .. if seems to be forming a floor after the dip on recent earnings? Thanks

  20. Couldn't sign in to Webx broadcast. Asked for email & pw. I presume it was pw for this acct not for my yahoo account, but… I tried. I never get the AM emails either on trades; just gave up after calling a few times.

  21. XOM

    Missed the gap down, that was quick.  I really need to take those quick 20% moves at the open, was gone right after I posted.  Stopped out even…

  22. Anyone get in the ARGT trade- Went to 1.75 but ask was 5.00?

  23. Pirate - Log in WebEx as guest – input name and email – that's it

  24. WWE – Up nicely on earnings beat.  Sold 1/2.

  25. Any one know how to join the webinar….Thanks

  26. Can't be so bad…

    LifePoint Hospitals reported that the percentage of its patients paying for their own care declined from 7.1 percent to 4.8 percent over the last year, according to Bloomberg.

    Those trends have led to a brightening financial outlook for the companies, according to Bloomberg. Both HCA and LifePoint increased their fiscal forecast recently as the increase in paying customers became clear. LifePoint specifically estimated that Obamacare added $13 million to its total earnings in the second quarter, 40 percent above its expectations.

  27. jasu – link above at 9.36 plus see my comment to Pirate above

  28. jasu1 / webinar – click webinar link above, new webpage should pop up. Add your display name and email address and click join as guest. Then choose to listen via computer and that should be it. I'm going from memory so I may have missed a step.

  29. So, we are short the CCJ Jan16 20p at 2.30.  They had good earnings this morning.  Add?

     Cameco beats by $0.02, misses on revs (CCJ) : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of CC$0.20 per share, excluding non-recurring items, CC$0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of CC$0.18; revenues rose 19.2% year/year to CC$502 mln vs the CC$550.2 mln consensus.

  30. How to adjust a bull put credit spread?

    +20 POL Sep35P @ 0.20 now 0.375

    -20 POL Sep40P @ 1.00 now 2.62

    POL now 38.50


    If anyone wants to look at my actual problem it was put in a gallery box as a test. It shows reduced disc space, non-alignment from end of fuse forward, next down back, screw hits lower vertebra, screw in at angle, and fuse block out of square. Keep in mind it is a CT that shows bone, metal, and only MRI shows the nerves. Not sure why she didn't put that one up also. She want to know how it looks so please comment and I mean you non-medical doctors. The attempt is so anyone can see the bottom of the work perfectly and check how the area is behind ribs. Notice C1 bright at the top, that is why I coded in surgery.

  32. She wants not want             didn't work out perfectly. I hate the auto edit!

  33. OK, Webcast over – sorry that took longer than I thought but I'll catch up on chat now.  

    Quick note is the Dow just failed support (/YM) at 16,650 and that's really bad and we may end up down 250 today so that line is now a good spot for a short (to make up for my terrible long /TF attempt!).

  34. I do still like /TF bouncy at 1,120 but nothing has held so far so be super-careful.  The good news is that /NQ has finally gotten to theoretical support at 3,900 but I won't be surprised if they all fail.  

  35. Phil

    BTW Jen got the job in Texas and is moving. The new text by Helen and I is much better but I asked if it is too long, Jen said she will look for cuts. This has taken along time but people are busy and it is an attempt to get it spread outside of PSW.

  36. Out of XOM @1.03, even trade WO fees.

  37. Phil// I have those income portoflio AAPL 2016 450/600 & 500/700 spreads.  Should I close them out or plan to add during these times the new 80/100 spread you had recommended?  Thanks.

  38. are divs usually applied end of day ?

  39. Does anyone  have a gtat trade? Have  one I need to adjust.

  40. Wow, is this the start of correction that has eluded us?

  41. pirate/GTAT

    Did you see Phil's from yesterday?

    (2016 10/17 BCS and sell the 2016 10 puts)

  42. GTAT/pirate – long Jan2016 $15 call and short Jan2015 $20 call.

  43. AMD/DM – I am never a big fan of AMD because INTC only allows them to exist so they don't get accused of being a monopoly.  On the other hand, when they do get very cheap (like late 2012) I do like them because INTC can't afford to let them die, so they'll throw a contract here and there to give AMD a win when they need it.  $3 would be interesting to me, not $3.88.  Also, keep in mind it's not about processing power anymore – we have all the power we need until they come up with programs that use more of it – it's all about power consumption and heat now.

    Webex/Pirate – Sorry, first time I tried that.  What did you do to finally get in.  We need instructions for the next time.  

    XOM Aug $100 puts at $1.15 so 1/2 off and stop at $1 on the rest in STP and $25KP

    ARGT/Pirate – Very thinly traded unfortunately.  Oct $23 puts last traded at $1.75, which is not bad because they are down 5% already for the day.  

    WWE/Albo – Very nice!  Still playable from our old entry:

    Submitted on 2014/05/16 at 2:47 pm

    WWE is almost interesting now, but only almost.  They're taking a $50M hit this year (two year's earnings) gambling on a subscription model for their fans, rather than the constant pay-per-view marketing thing they do now.  They pay a 2.5% dividend that's .48, so more like 4.2% at $11.34.  Still, I just don't like them and it doesn't really get compelling until they are below $10, which it touched today – worth keeping an eye on.  They don't have LEAPS but you can sell Oct $12.50 puts for $2.70, buy the stock for $11.34 and sell the $11 calls for $2.15 for net $6.49/9.50, which would make the .48 dividend 7.4% while you wait.  As I said – ALMOST compelling but then you have to explain to people what you like about the WWE or, even worse, the McMahons…

  44. I am doubting this is the start of the correction.  I am way more of the opinion this is flushing out some longs before another move up.  Sure, tensions are high and the economy is still not looking great, but there's some good underlying data to go with all the awful.

    1) Wage growth is the highest as of today's report that it has been in years.

    2) Oil prices are coming down DESPITE geopolitical tenison.

    3) When things do clear out in geopolitics, relief rally

    4) The headline on CNBC right now is european deflation which, as Phil likes to say, "MORE FREE MONEY!!!"

    5) We've been consolidating in a subtle uptrend for months.

    6) Massive bullish options bet on the S&P yesterday (albeit break-even is down below S&P 1900)

    IMO, the risk is still very much to the upside.  I DO think we'll end down around 200 on the DOW, but I also think tomorrow is going to be an up day to wipe out most of today's losses.

    One big note though:  This is 100% speculation and my "feeling" on what is going to happen.

  45. Phil

    Thanks for the QQQ 96 weekly put. In at .30 today, out at .75 exactly 1 hour later.

    Wish I could profit 250% that fast more consistently..

  46. AMD

    What Phil said about them is likely true. I will say the failures I came across were heat related and not the heat sink too small. JPH thinks they are superior but again the soft ware is a pig in goo. The younger don't realize or even believe that 40 years ago computers were mean and lean, yes they couldn't do as much but 1.5 sec. was the spec. for response time and working memory was scarce. We did not use hard drives as buffers, what has become RAM was in K not M or gig was never dreamed of. I can't believe how bad software has fallen into WTF.

  47. UNP/Pwright – won't act until see a close under 98.69, but this may be the last day of our UNP run…

  48. I prefer Intel actually but I need performance.  I play games and run some heavy duty simulations so I have a quad core Core i5 on my home PC with 16GB of memory, two SSDs, and a few TB of storage.  I just also think AMD has a place for people who need value or graphics performance more than compute performance.

  49. RE: QQQ’s I probably could have set up a stop- loss ( gain), but I have some longer term hedges & they are expiring tomorrow.

  50. AMD/ Phil .. thanks for that. I will stay away so.

  51. JPH

    Mine is i7, 24 gig ram, liquid cooled, and hot-rodded overclocked.

  52. No wonder I couldn't find the QQQp @.22-it was a weekly! Thanks for the gtat update-I thought I read everything yesterday, but apparently missed the trade. As suggested I signed in as guest on WebEx. Thanks for that "instant replay." of those incredibly fast moving futures & those that helped me get access.

  53. The 1.75 on argt was me!

  54. .67 div on KKR – dive on in !!!!

  55. Correction…or Rotation?

    "It’s not for me to speculate the reasons behind any market move or whether anything is justified or not, but  I find it interesting that those that do, have glossed over the fact in the recent weakness ‘defensive’ names have acted anything but defensively. In fact, they’ve been leading to the downside. Of course, those with a bearish narrative will jump on any weakness as a confirmation of their view, but it’s noticeable to me the exits posted on here recently have mostly been in names defensive in nature, coinciding with the weakness seen in consumer staples, utilities and transports. And yet, just today in another weak session we saw a momentum name like $GILD make new highs, something conveniently ignored by the bears. They seem to have overlooked the possibility that what we’re really witnessing is simply a case of further market rotation rather than the beginning of the much-anticipated correction…"

  56. Phil- FB looks attractive again?

  57. I have gild down 2.27. Everything seems to be tanking.

  58. Phil – You should be able to post a link to a replay of today’s Webex.

    Cisco WebEx

    Cisco WebEx Recording Resources

  59. Phil;

    At what price do you consider BA cheap?

  60. HCA/StJ – That's why they were so off-base objecting to it in the first place.  Hopefully, this removes a big peg of support from Republicans looking to repeal it.  

    CCJ/Burr – We love them long-term on the premise uranium sales pick up again as Japan restarts their reactors (and China keeps building new ones).  Russia and China are adding more plants (about 50) than Japan has total over the next decade anyway:

    I'm just pleased that CCJ is not losing money while we wait.  At $20.25 we can ignore the 0.37 dividend and pick up the 2016 $17/22 bull call spread at $2.50 and sell the $17 puts for $1.55 for net 0.95 on the $5 spread that's $3.25 in the money to start – that's a nice way to stare a 400% position!  TOS says net $1.70 margin on the short puts, so pretty efficient too.  

    POL/Edro – Thanks for putting it here.  Actually, if their stuff is oil-based, then they should get a bump in earnings as prices come down.  Still, they are likely to test the 200 dma at $36.50 first and I already told you how much I HATE those spreads since the most you could have made is .80 (your net credit) but you risk losing $4.20 or 525% if anything goes wrong.  So you need to have 5 100% successful plays like this to make up for any one you miss – not a good strategy over time.  

    At this point, you are net $2.25 so down $1.45 and your short putter is $2 in the money, so you are lucky to have a discount on your loss.  If you REALLY love this stock and don't mind owning 2,000 shares of it long-term, then you can just take your .37 off the table and roll the LOSS (not the whole short put price) of $1.45 out to something lower and longer, like the Sept $35 puts, which are $1.80.  You can sell 15 of those for $2,700 to make back most of your $2,800 loss but keep in mind that obligates you to buy 1,500 shares of POL at $35 ($52,500), so you'd better make sure you love these guys so much that you'd rather do that than just take a $2,700 loss and learn your lesson. 

    Youcaring/Shadow – You still need an image and a way more personalized description on the main page – it's way too generic as it is, doesn't show what the funds are for, etc.  Like everything in the World, this is a marketing project.  

    AAPL/Rookie – If you have a lot, you should have taken profits already between $99.50 and $95.90.  We knew it would be rejected at $100 and the run-up from $75 means $5 weak retrace (happening now) and $10 strong retrace (likely).  So, if you don't want to ride that out, you damned sure should take some off the table and, if you are that deep in the money, you should have taken it off the table a long time ago if you don't have downside hedges.  

    Dividends/Wombat – Usually overnight.  

    GTAT/Pirate – We just did one yesterday.  Still falling today. 

    Correction/Abhish – Seems like it but we've had many false starts before.  Dow down 210 so far, -250 was my call for the bottom (today).  

    Underlying data/JPH – Yes, earnings have been pretty good, even if we do correct 5-10% and hold that, it's just a healthy and necessary correction in the course of a longer rally.  The banks certainly aren't done printing yet.  

    QQQ/Randers – You're welcome.  Those are nice ways to take the sting out when the market dips.  

    Software/Shadow – I agree 100%.  My Dad was a systems analyst and began working with punch cards.  Boy do you learn how to right tight code when you have to load 5,000 cards into a reader every time you run a program!  

    AMD/JPH – Having a place isn't the same as making good money.  The R&D and manufacturing costs are extreme and, without winning big contracts to pay back initial investments, it's tough business to make money in.  Also, a major misstep can spell disaster – that's always hanging over their heads.  

    You're welcome DM.  I've been saying that about them since they were in the $40s and, so far, no one has complained they missed the bus.  Get it, bus…  cheeky

    Good job on ARGT Pirate.   It's one good way to make the evening news exciting.  

    Rotation/Scott – It's a reasonable theory but hard to bet on this early in the game.  

    FB/Abhish – As a short maybe?  Again, you must EXPAND your timeframe – this does not constitute a buyable pullback! 

  61. I not in anything but regret that when I said days ago I missed USO puts then IWM puts and did not got in after the turn, but when you trading account has under $500 you have to not only be right but can't do any form of chase. I missed 2 4 bangers and would have 2 K now on either. To sell off on the last day of July is a big thing and from the contrarian side defensive not going up shows the sentiment is wrong, a negative for the market every time. Last week I went back 5 years and it told me 10 to 60 days and very much towards the short time. I did post all this and I may be very wrong but don't complain if you loose your butt, Phil says stay in cash also.

  62. Replay/Diamond – I didn't think people would want a replay of my rambling on in an impromptu session.  I'll dig it up later.  

    BA/Options – Not to be goulish but BA is cheap after a crash or a defect issue that tanks them.  Otherwise, they are usually well-priced to the market.  At the moment, Airbus, with more EM clients, has had orders getting canceled on them because the airlines are in a cash squeeze.  That hasn't hit BA – yet – but this is how things began to fall apart for them in 2008 as all those "orders" turned out to be wishful thinking by airlines that couldn't get financing.  Things may be better now but you are always one terrorist bomb away from a 20% drop in BA so, on the whole, I prefer to come in AFTER those drops.  

    For some strange reason, the fact that the missile that hit the flight over Ukraine was a high-tech Russian missile made people feel better than if, for example, it had been fired from a standard shoulder launcher.  

  63. ZOINKS! anyone going to BTFD?  

  64. cdtbud, dips – i tried like 3 times.  forgotten what a trend down day looks like.

  65. I am tempted to buy something. I tend to agree with Phil that this market isnt really going down until interest rates start rising.  Kinda got the feeling to do something…(ugh that sounds expensive)

  66. looking dippy:  RGR, CL, GLUU, ATVI, O, MU, TEX…

  67. AMD

    I'm not a proponent of them as a stock but their product does have a place in the market it just isn't a very profitable one!

  68. Phil – Re:WebEx

    I did not have time to watch it live, but I am interested and quite sure that in your “rambling on in an impromptu session” that you did manage to make some very salient points. You always do! :-)

  69. also HOG, WTR.. and so many more.

  70. Phil – SNDK – Do you think SNDK will find a floor at 90?  They still have a lot of growth.  I'm in a long term mess (short inverted 92.50  calls and 97.50 puts) with them from the last two earnings cycles.  I'm hoping to shake off my short calls soon and then work out of the puts.

  71. When the adults get back after Labor Day they are really going to be PO’d at how the junior traders screwed up the market during the summer … although, that may have been the actual plan.

  72. AMD

    I agree they deserve a place in the market. I thought their stab in routers would fly but Phil may prove right they are an extension of Intel. As far as my score of 3 to 0 may be total coincidence and gazillions are running fine, one must also remember they are basically in the machines with every corner cut for price point. There are better safer investments one being Intel.

  73. Stj/Yelp –  The dip today didn't help my calendar position. I sold the long call at the open, and am going to let the short weekly expire. I should end up with a $350 profit on 5 contracts. 

  74. Diamond- can u elaborate on ur last comment please? How did junior traders messed up?

  75. It just seems like there is going to be a giant stick save at the end of the day.  So far this seem pretty orderly.  I know  "they" are just waiting for me to press on the short end.

    As W said: "There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again." 

  76. … ADBE, ALU, DDD, LLL, S, SUNE, UMC, YELP…  not saying any of these are right to buy, but are dippin'

  77. and the whole damn DJIA.  time to pick up calls for a bounce?

  78. scott

    How much will be missed waiting a few days for shake out. PSW way is only have a small amount of cash in the market but one has to remember those caller putter things can draw a lot of cash away.

  79. scottmi – Someone has to go first.  Let us know…

  80. scottmi // first
    scott – pick a number between 1 and 10

  81. rdn.. ;-)   i'm pretty tempted with NKE…

  82. scottmi re: UNP, I cashed em this am.  Still pretty happy with this run, up $2K or so over the past couple of months since we started.. :)

  83. I sold my naked SQQQ call.  How's that go for the first step? ;)

  84. JPH and Phil re: interest rates, if Fed will raise rates next year, do you think market will start pricing it in now? 

  85. pwright.. it has been a good run!  is the MXWL outfit the same who made the audio cassette tapes I used to use?…you know, back before CDs!?

  86. Dips/Cdt – We're failing all sorts of technicals now.  VIX 16.27.  Volume heavy on the selling too.

    Dips – PLENTY of things to buy (see Buy List) without having to rush in and be heroes.  Just let the market come to you!  

    Excellent Daily Show last night:


    Webex/Diamond – LOL, you may not think so after an hour of it but I'll find it.  

    SNDK/Rdn – They do generally tend to get back on track but $100 for them was insane (up 150% from last year) so I don't think this "correction" will correct back to a 20+ p/e on what is, essentially, a commodity stock.  40% of their revenues still come from removable media, which is down from 43% last year and is a declining market.  SSD is their only growth segment but margins there are thinner.  Meanwhile, if EPS last year were $4.63 when the stock averaged $60 for a p/e of under 15 – what is it you are buying with an estimated $5.50 a share this year and next?

    I don't know where Yahoo gets those bottom P/E numbers (it's all one image) but, to me 15 x $5.50 = $82.50, not $100 and not $92.50.  I don't see any rational reason to pump up their multiple so, short story – they are still overpriced.  

    Adults/Diamond – Are you kidding, there is nothing the Hamptons crowd likes better than to see that the markets can't survive without their "guiding hands" at the till.  

    LOL Cdt! 

    LOL Scott with the multi-comment list….  How do you feel about shrimp?  

    Finally we are bouncing – game certainly on again at 1,120 on /TF and 16,600 on /YM – just make sure you use the stops as I'm only just recovering from this morning's mess!  

  87. 3,900 on /NQ too!  

  88. abhishekseth2 – It was meant as a joke! The “adults” (aka top level traders) supposedly go on vacation every summer and leave the junior traders behind to take care of business. That is one reason things always change after Labor Day.

  89. Shrimp/phil  lol! giddy with choice!

  90. Why don't you setup another WebEx to play the afternoon stick?

  91. Things are turning back up slightly-watch it.

  92. Almost 250 points on the nose was the bottom for the Dow (1.5%).

    Good point on cash, Shadow.  

    SQQQ/JPH – Nice timing. 

    Rates/Pwright – I'd say the market is NOT pricing it in now.  I'm not sure when they will start, possibly not until the Fed finally does raise rates and, if not until then, then violently.  

    MXWL/Scott – Kudos to those guys for reinventing themselves.  It hasn't been pretty, but they survived.  

    WebEx/Burr – I'm still catching up from the morning session.  Let me eat lunch and we'll see.  

  93. phil

    belated thanks for the tasr thoughts the other day………missed the play as i had to leave …looks like i might get another chance……..

  94. I saw a comment here a while back that stated that long calls should be rolled before they drop below the original price of the spread. I have RIG 2016 40/50 bull call spread bought at 6/2.50, now 3.45/1.04. (I also sold puts). Should I be doing something? :) Thank you!

  95. MXWL/Phil&Scottmi

    You guys are confusing Maxwell Technologies, makers of the supercapacitors, with Maxell, makers of audio tapes and part of Hitachi.

  96. i thought they made coffee

  97. Dear Seeking Alpha reader,

    I wanted to update you that Seeking Alpha headlines no longer appear in Yahoo finance…

  98. I still HAVE to stay bullish at this point.  I damn well know we should be correcting a bit but on what earth would you put your money anywhere else?  

    The dollar weakening of course is good for stocks on an immediate basis but a strong dollar is much better long term.  Again, stronger dollar means cheaper energy and lower prices on imports…and we still import far more than we export.  If oil exports stay blocked, how the hell are we going to get rid of all our oil?  As Phil has said a million times, we have a ton of oil and are using less every day.  What bigger boon is there to the overall American economy than cheap gas?

    View it this way, imo:  Businesses are not investing with cheap interest.  American's aren't buying more with cheap interest.  Americans DO buy more cheap goods than expensive goods.  Where is the strong dollar a bad thing?

  99. Wombat – Well it sure looks like I lightened up at the wrong time on the oil spread.  Huge move down today.

  100. Maxell… Kechitodd – that's it! it's been a while since I've handled those cassettes..  

  101. VXX/STJ – I'm taking this opportunity to add to my VXX 2016 25/15 put spread.  

  102. Anyone know the current KKR trade in one of the portfolios?  

  103. palotay // yep
    hence my comment about average down. i went the other way. i bought more longs and covered this morning. +22K

    why a VXX spread ? just buy the puts >>

    KKR is killin me – everyone feel free to buy >> .67 div tonight – unreal, i think it just got dragged down with the market.

  104. Who else is speculating an end today with SPX over 1951 (50DMA)?

  105. KKR – Phil, I thought KKR was in one of the ports.  I might be wrong though, as this looks like the most updated screenshot that I can find, and it's not listed.  Like them for a new trade?


  106. Phil  FYI

    Seeking Alpha articles will no longer appear in Yahoo Finance‏


    David Jackson (


    Add to contacts


    1:03 PM








    Dear Seeking Alpha reader,

    I wanted to update you that Seeking Alpha headlines no longer appear in Yahoo finance. (Our editor-in-chief Eli Hoffmann explains why in this article.)


  107. scottmi and wombat re: MXWL, now that I've got longs on them, me and Icahn are encouraging the board to get busy on the cassettes and coffee :)

  108. Burr / KKR
    Buy 100 KKR @ $23
    Sell -10 $25 short puts

    Tomorrow collect the div ( .67 ) > $6,700 + cash the shorts when the div hits / write calls against it when you cash the shorts

  109. Phil gets the last laugh on SA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  110. Wonder how much the last day of the month plays into a stick at 3:30 or earlier.

  111. WFM has basically recovered completely

  112. Wow.  -3% on XOM seems extremely overplayed for good earnings.

  113. YELP / Palotay – I guess pays for a couple of dinners!

  114. BNN/Phil … good show you did last night on BNN :)

  115. 81.57 to 81.45 is not dollar dropping, right now it needs to drop 1.5 to 2% to make the difference up.

    See you all tomorrow.

  116. VXX / Palotay – A good spike for sure. If we have a good job number tomorrow and a rally, VIX could get crushed again.

  117. Money flowing back into AAPL.

  118. Wombat – Just working through the numbers

    100 KKR @ 23 = -23,000

    -10 KKR Jan16 20P @ 1.75 = +1750

    Div = 100shares * .67 = +6700

    Or were you thinking about different short puts?

    PS: FU /TF long that I got out of.

  119. STJ/VXX – How much do you have allocated for this position?  Right now I have 1% of my portfolio in the put spreads.  

  120. Burr / KKR
    Well, KKR will jump the minute the div hits, or usually the day of so I play it for max premium. The play you have is pretty safe. You sure you want to wait until 2016 for $1700 ? This is more of a monthly play. You could sell the Aug$23's for .45. I don't see KKR failing $23
    Just make sure you get in today so you can collect the div.

  121. F'ing computer crashed again but I'm pretty sure it has to do with running Outlook.  I guess I'll move my mail to another computer.  

    You're welcome Mill.  

    RIG/Griffin – Good rule of thumb but you have nowhere to roll to.  I'd spend net $2.75 to roll your $3.50 $40s to the $6.25 $35s as then you spent net $7.25 to be in the $6.25 calls – not too bad.  When 2017s come out, you can roll for time.  

    MXWL/Kech – Thanks for clearing that up.  Been so long, I have forgotten the proper name.  

    LOL Wombat.  

    SeekingAlpha/Greno – That's great.  I certainly don't buy their excuse (thanks QC), I know YHOO has been getting pissed about the quality of SA and others dragging down their own reputation (in fact, I might have mentioned it to them a few times!).  In case people missed it – here's the exciting story of my last straw with those assholes.  Hopefully, Motley Fool will go next.  In fact, I don't see TMF now!  That would prove SA is full of crap if they are both gone on the same day.  

    Where/JPH – Nothing wrong with sidelines.  There's always a bargain to be had and they are much easier to take advantage of when you have CASH!!! 

    Oil/Palotay – If you play it right, you miss lots of big moves.  Some your way, some against.  The idea is to make consistent, predictable money in between.  

    KKR/Burr – They did not survive the cash-out and I soured on them as an underperformer anyway.  I would only like them again if they get much cheaper or the VIX gets much higher.  

    Speaking of the VIX – steady at 16 now.  

    1,951/JPH – I'll take the other side of that bet for you.  How much you got? 

    WFM/Pwright – Too good to keep down.  

    XOM/JPH – All about the guidance and looking forward at oil prices.  

    Thanks DM. 

  122. stj and palotay re: VXX: could you remind how to set up this position?

    Many thanks

  123. But won't KKR's share price just be lower by 0.67 tomorrow?  The share price is usually adjusted for the div payout.  No?  The 200 day is 22.62.

  124. Futures bounce lines (short-term):

    • /YM down from 16,800 to 16,600 (ignoring up and down spikes) is 200 points so 40-point bounces to 16,640 is weak and 16,680 is strong.  
    • /ES from 1,970 to 1,935 is 35 so 7-point bounces to 1,941 (weak) and 1,949 (strong) but, of course, we round that to 1,950. 
    • /NQ 3,975 to 3,875 (incomplete) is 100 so 20-point bounces is 3,895 (weak) and 3,915 (strong)
    • /TF 1,145 to 1,115 is 30 so 6-point bounces is 1,121 and 1,127.

    It doesn't look to me like we'll be strong bouncing and, without a same day strong bounce then weak bounce must hold next day or MORE BEARISH.  If strong bounce not taken and held 2nd day then MORE BEARISH.  

  125. pwright72.  VXX will decay over time.  No way around it.  So buy the 2016 ATM puts on VXX whenever there is a vol spike.  Kinda like today.  Since the vix will generally revert to a mean and hold, VXX can't stop decaying.  

    I sold out my VXX long puts, but have a standing order to buy in laddered tiers as it falls to 5 and lower, which will happen only IF there is a big vix spike.

  126. Phil – Strap a GoPro to your head and then we can watch you trade, eat lunch, etc. Merging  finance with realty TV is the next frontier! Your subscriptions would soar!!! ;-)

  127. Phil – My last comment is "awaiting moderation!" :-)

  128. VXX / Palotay – I would not make it much bigger. I have about 2% myself, but I am not adding to it right now. 

  129. VXX / pwright – What Burrben said… I am in the Jan 16 25 puts because that's what made sense when I started the position. My guess is that VXX will be around 10 or so by Jan 16 so do the math on current puts to see where you get your best return. Palotay is in 25/15 bear put vertical which is another option of course.

  130. Wombat/CL – Nicely played.  I'm kicking myself for getting out.  

    Good point on the vxx though.  I guess if it is going to 0, it is better to just be just long the puts where I can quadruple my money, versus double my money in a spread.

  131. I don't have conviction on the bounce idea so I'm not playing it.  I think the odds are better than 50/50 but who the hell knows what is going to happen over the next 3 hours?

  132. burrben, stj, palotay re: VXX, thanks.  I just took some Jan 16 25s..

  133. Damn, check out these kids!  

  134. Short AKAM?

    Apple's long-rumored content delivery network (CDN) has gone live in the US and Europe, delivering traffic directly to Comcast and other Internet service providers thanks to paid interconnection deals, Frost & Sullivan analyst Dan Rayburn reported today.

    The CDN can deliver multiple terabits of data per second and will help Apple more efficiently distribute new releases of iOS and OS X.

    Apple is still using Akamai and Level 3 CDN services for iTunes and app downloads, "but over time, much of that traffic will be brought over to Apple’s CDN," Rayburn wrote. "It’s too early to know how much traffic will come over and when, but Apple’s already started using their own CDN much faster than I expected. The pace of their build out and amount of money they are spending on infrastructure is incredible. Based on my calculations, Apple has already put in place multiple terabits per second of capacity and by the end of this year, will have invested well more than $100M in their CDN build out." Apple has been working on its CDN for about a year.[...]

    Level 3 will be able to make up lost CDN revenue because "they are one of the vendors that Apple is buying wavelengths, IP transit, fiber and other infrastructure services from," Rayburn wrote. "Akamai will see the most negative impact over time since almost 10 percent of their revenue comes from Apple and they can’t sell Apple wavelengths, transit, co-location or other network related products."

    These ISP make out like bandits – getting money on both ends! What this shows though is that in the end, this will not be more expensive for AAPL or NFLX. They just cut-off the AKAM and Level 3 middle man.

  135. CHINA……

    "Will it play in Peoria?" asks the age-old question about how Broadway shows would be received in Middle America. Well, apparently Tesla Motors plays well in Beijing. It's part of Tesla chief Elon Musk's grand plan, of course.

    The California-based maker of the battery-electric Model S has delivered about 1,000 of the vehicles in Chinasince shipments started there in April, Bloomberg News says, citing Dougherty & Co. analyst Andrea James, Barclays Plc analyst Brian Johnson and Wedbush Securities analyst Craig Irwin. Tesla also started shipping its first right-had drive Model S sedans to the UK in June.

    It is estimated that all those deliveries helped push Tesla's second-quarter global vehicle deliveries close to the 7,550 mark, which is more than the company forecast and would set a new quarterly record (Tesla's second-quarter results will be announced later today). It would also mark about a 45 percent jump from Tesla's 2Q sales a year ago.

  136. GoPro/Diamond – I may as well check into the Big Brother house!  90% of what I do is read stuff – lots and lots and lots of stuff.  I doubt that's interesting to watch and, when I'm on the Webcast, I'm falling behind by 1 minute for each minute I'm on because I should be doing 5 other things simultaneously instead of just talking.   I have the same problem with using Dragon – I can type while listening to 2 tvs and reading two other screens and watching charts out of the corner of my eye but, if I try to talk and show people things on another screen - it's like a juggler with one too many balls and the whole thing sort of collapses.  

    AKAM/StJ – They do get 40% of their revenues from Media Content Delivery.  Figure AAPL is a 10% customer so a 4% downtrend over time.  LOL – Oh, it says that further down..

  137. Musk/StJ – He looked way too smug on the Colbert Report – I think that means he's having a good Q.  

  138. VXX

    If you're projecting the VIX is going to hang out where it's at, why would you buy the naked puts?  You increase your leverage by buying the spread (unless you're buying on the VIX spike to cover later)

    Looking at the 50DMA from Feb 2013 through Aug 2013 you can do an exponential fit that says you're losing about 1% of the index per month.

  139. Quote of the day:

    Patrick O’Shaughnessy, “Some of the outperformance of the value strategy comes because it forces you to never own the really expensive, popular stuff which tends to do terribly in the market.”  (Patrick O’Shaughnessy)

  140. Musk / Phil – When doesn't he look smug. Although some people would say confident. But where is the line between confidence and hubris?

  141. wombat

    KKR I think you guys have the stock wrong for a div of 6700 you need to buy 10000 shares not 100!!!

  142. Mexican food stocks are the sector to be in.  CMG (not today) and LOCO up another 4 today.

  143. Wombat – I'm pretty sure KKR went ex-dividend today !  Which would account for the big drop.

    Read more:

  144. VXX / JPH – Many ways to skin that cat! When they reset VXX I posted an analysis on the returns of either buying a put or a vertical assuming that we get to $15 by Jan 16. If I recall, the differences were minimal in the returns. It comes down to preference probably.

  145. predictions on TSLA price for tomorrow?

  146. Yodi  - Whatever.  Who cares about 0's to the right :)


  147. TSLA/rustle – 260. just can't decide if I want a Aug1 or Aug2 butterfly..

  148. TSLA/Scott

    I don't think it gets that high, don't think it will break 250 if earnings are good.  Still suspicious with the opening of patents.  Think company might be hiding some challenges right now.  And depends on if they are constrained from batteries on production.  But in this market atmosphere, think a run of 25-30 points would be tops if things are very good.

  149. Burr / KKR
    Yodi is correct, sorry. I was looking at my position and it threw me.
    The market drop is totally f*cking with KKRs 'cycle' 
    I would stay out on this one – I'm rolling out my shorts for a recovery.

  150. TSLA/rustle – you are so right, and quite rationally considered… but this is TSLA!   Aug1 250/260/270 call butterfly for .62. Yes a speculation. But hey, it's just the cost of, like, one CMG burrito, right? All the call activity today is to the upside, and lots of trades at 250, 255, 260, 265…

  151. Earnings tonight:

    Consensus Estimate – 0.07
    Whisper Number – 0.05
    Average Move – 7.2%
    Priced into Options – 8.8%

    Consensus Estimate – 0.76
    Whisper Number – 0.81
    Average Move – 8.6%
    Priced into Options – 10%

    Consensus Estimate – 0.39
    Whisper Number – 0.37
    Average Move – 10%
    Priced into Options – 7.8%

    Consensus Estimate – 0.04
    Whisper Number – 0.15
    Average Move – 9.9%
    Priced into Options – 8.8%

    EW bearish on LNKD and neutral on the other. Whisper number for TSLA is a big beat but that might be baked in already! 

  152. TSLA/Scott

    My guess is 248 high if earnings are good and 190 if disappointed.  And this was TSLA, short interest not as big anymore and fervor has waned on the stock.

  153. More activity in LNKD calls up to 210 than in puts OTM. Could be selling though…

  154. Phil: Any thought on gold. We have a nation defaulting, or at least close to defaulting, on their debt, and gold is down 12.20. Trying to wrap my head around this. Thoughts?

  155. Dear Seeking Alpha reader,

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  156. TSLA/rustle – well, my bet is on the table..!  but just ONE butterfly.. ;-)

  157. Smug/StJ – For one thing, pushing that BS "Hyperloop" thing as if it was real is beyond confidence, as is indicating that whatever Colbert wants, he can make happen – as if he's Techno-Wonka.  To quote Steve Jobs: "Shut up dummy – I'll TELL you what you want and you are going to like it!"  

    And down we go again – weak bounce failures!  

    TSLA/Rustle – Either $250 or $185 or $225.  

    Earnings/StJ – Not coming off a big down day like this – makes predicting impossible.  

    Gold/Jbur – I think it's pretty essential to have some ABX as a hedge against doomsday.  As I noted this morning in Webcast, when gold is down with everything else, then the markets are reflecting a major economic slow-down.  It's hard to see from this country as the MSM runs constant interference but I think the numbers this week (even with US GDP) made that pretty clear.  

  158. OK, we'll do another hour Webcast into the close – I'll come back and catch up on written chat later (see, double work for me!).  

  159. The selling everything today incl. the kitchen sink

  160. Yodi – no kidding. who could be moving that broad of a portfolio?

  161. right now I'm seeing 130M on the SPY.  This is still low-ish volume lol.

  162. From Cobra: “If you’re trapped bulls, no need panic, backup is on the way: The ultimate weapon – NYMO is very close to extremely oversold now, so a sharp rebound most likely is within a day or two.”

  163. It bugs the crap out of me that CNBC changes their headlines all the time after an article has been posted.

  164. Wombat and others:  I was just scanning the posts and noticed that you are still considering KKR to be a live play.  Today, July 31, is the ex-dividend date according to Ameritrade.  This means that as of today any stock purchased will be "ex-dividend", i.e., will not pay the dividend.  Yesterday, before the stock went ex-dividend, was the last day a new purchaser would reap the dividend.

  165. JohnC1 – See my 2:24 pm post.

  166. Right you are.  Thanks, Albo.

  167. Sadly to say here in Germany travelling through towns and cities you see reduced speed limits of 30 Km/hour not to kill children in school zones. In Israel they throw bombs on schools am I seeing this right or am I driving drank on the wheel???? Just watching the news here.

  168. JohnC
    You are correct. Thats why all the smoke on this end. I've been holding for a week so div is 'active' but you are correct, today is 'ex-div' so buyers today are NOT eligible.
    We were operating on different info over here that the ex-div was Aug1 ( from IBB ) – really
    screwed us. 

    Sorry for the inconvenience guys.

  169. Ouch!  What a finish!  

    Ugly, ugly, UGLY!  

    Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow might save us but, if not, we're heading to a 5% correction (double this) next week. 

    LNKD crushed it.  

    TLSA good too, though not getting much reaction. 

    EXPE good.  

  170. TSLA beats but down anyway… I guess good numbers were baked in!

  171. TSLA not hitting 250, love those earnings

  172. Israel/Yodi – Well, at least they are not driving…  Acutally, Hamas places their weapons in schools is the problem – and anywhere else there are innocent people that could get hurt.  Israel drops notes from the air announcing when they will bomb and fires warning shots before bombing to let people know where they will be bombing next in an effort not to harm civilians but it also lets the bad guys get away.  It's all insane.  

    The United Nations has found troves of rockets hidden in three of its schools since the conflict began. “We condemn the group or groups who endangered civilians by placing these munitions in our school,”

    The international organization also found 20 additional rockets at another of its schools during an inspection, calling it one more “flagrant violation of the inviolability” of the premises.

    Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Casey tweeted an image of a Hamas spokesman giving an interview at a Gaza hospital. With the shelling, “You have to wonder … how patients at Shifa hospital feel as Hamas uses it as a safe place to see media.” The tweet was later deleted.

    For years, Hamas has “planned carefully for a major Israeli invasion,”according to a Washington Institute for Near East Policy report. In addition to an elaborate tunnel system, there was the “integral use of civilians and civilian facilities as cover for its military activity; schools, mosques, hospitals, and civilian housing became weapons storage facilities, Hamas headquarters, and fighting positions … IDF imagery and combat intelligence revealed extensive use of civilian facilities.”

    TSLA/StJ – I want my flying car!!!  

  173. SGEN looks like a beat, but not moving yet AH

  174. Webcast Recording from this Morning.

    Webcast Recording from this Afternoon.

    These are not planned out (not that I have much of a plan on Tuesday's either) – I'm just trying out jumping into a Webcast occasionally when something interesting is going on.  Let me know what you guys think .

  175. Phil I think if they would steal your land and keep you prison in your land you would not stand with your hands in your pocket however throwing bombs on children does not make any heros even if many of their religions are cucku to me. Where shall this people run to? Stupid flyers does not give them cover!!!

  176. Yodi- The idea that the land was stolen is one of the great myths created by the anti-Israel movement. The majority of the "palestinian" arabs migrated to the region after the birth of Israel because they sought economic prospects in what was now a thriving economy under Israeli rule. Also, these were generally people who were not allowed citizenship in other arab countries, mostly Jordan. So, here we have the people who were rejected by other arab nations, welcomed by Israel, who now are using the myth of a Palestinian nation, built over several decades in order to undermine the idea of an Israel being home to the Jewish people of the world. They are using civilian facilities to house their military and using children as human shields while lobbing rockets on Israeli targets. Would you allow Canada to fire rockets into the US and not retaliate even if their rockets were inside schools and nurseries? Or if you are from another country, pick a neighbor as your example.

  177. Look at that clown show:

    They can't even pass their own bills!

    Each side (Dems and GOP) has fringe elements. In the GOP, they are now hostage to that fringe element and these guys believe that:

    • Obama was born in Kenya
    • He is a muslim
    • He is the ante-Christ
    • The earth was created 6000 years ago
    • Climate change is not a problem
    • Science is bad
    • Tax cuts pay for themselves
    • Poor people are lazy
    • Etc…

    And base their votes based on these strongly held beliefs… On the other hand, fringe elements on the left push myths like:

    • Bush didn't get as many votes as Gore
    • Bush lied to get us into Iraq
    • A higher minimum wage is good
    • Inequality is bad and taxing the top 0.1% is good
    • Cheney is Darth Vader
    • Climate change could lead to a catastrophe
    • Spending money on science and education is good
    • Fixing the infrastructure is good…

    And they vote based on these beliefs… 

  178. Yodi,

    here is interesting reading about Arab-Israel conflict.

    (BTW, I disagree with 50% of it, but I think it's worth reading)

  179. Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

  180. The Arab-Israeli conflict is another one where fringe elements are driving… Hate seems to be such a great motivator! It does make for great propaganda though.

  181. That's a lot of supercharger stations:

    Now, Elon Musk and Tesla are trying to create their own nationwide network of stations to dispense electricity, not gas — perhaps as much as its cars themselves, this network of chargers will determine Tesla's future. And apparently it's not going to take very long to build. There are currently 103 Tesla Supercharger stations in the US, which are the best and fastest ways to charge Tesla cars. But last May, that number was nine. And by the end of 2015, Tesla says it will cover 98 percent of the US population, which means with a little foresight there really won't be anywhere you can't take your Model S. That coincides with a dramatic expansion in Europe, and a much less dramatic expansion in Asia. (Even 15 stations doesn't seem like enough for several billion people.)

  182. Wow, I didn't know conservatives had their own Wikipedia:

    I like the Obama page – looks like rigorous research. Schools will probably allow students to use that as reference:

    Barack Hussein Obama II (reportedly born in Honolulu, Hawaii on August 4, 1961) is the 44th President of the United States. Through heavy use of early voting by the Democrat political machine, Obama was elected president in 2008 with 365 electoral votes and 53% of the popular vote. In 2012 he was elected to a second term with 332 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote. Promoted heavily by liberals, as demonstrated by his unjustified receipt of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize, Obama won the presidency despite a short and unremarkable political career by outspending his opponent, John McCain, by hundreds of millions of dollars in 2008[2], and spending more than a billion dollars from special interests to attain reelection in 2012.[3]

    The liberal claptrap that helped elect Obama as president seems silly today. It was claimed, for example, that Obama has millions of followers on Twitter, when allegedly some 70% of them are fake.[4] And although the lamestream media promoted Obama as a great orator, in fact he relies almost entirely on teleprompters for his speeches and press conferences, and at one point even had teleprompters set up for him in a middle school classroom in order to speak to the media.

  183. Guys, tomorrow marks the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I.  Israel & Hamas, Russia moving in Crimea, numerous other wars going on.  Whoever said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes" was right on.  Here's an interesting account of how World War I started:

  184. TSLA has the nation covered by 98% based on 200 miles so worse case is you drive 100 miles to charge your car. So at say 50 mph, 2 hours plus charge time and it may be out of your way. 3 hours 80% charged.

    The problem isn't building batteries they are having issues selling all the cars they can supply with batteries now and to sell more cars the price must be cut drastically. You decide.

  185. Yodi

    Smartest man here, sell the sink also!

  186. The image was moved to the top front and enlarged. Someone must have a minute to look and comment. Thanks!

  187. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 8:37:56 PM

    Asian stocks dropped, extending the
    biggest global rout in six months that saw the Dow Jones
    Industrial Average wipe out this year’s gains in one session
    amid weaker earnings and credit-market concerns.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  188. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 7:31:01 PM

    Whenever the knotted world of credit-default swaps is pushed to the forefront in a financial crisis, conspiracy theories abound. Argentina is no exception.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  189. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 8:32:01 PM

    Asian stocks dropped, extending a
    global selloff that erased this year’s gains in the Dow (INDU) Jones
    Industrial Average and halted a five-month rally in world
    equities. Oil declined with soybeans as the dollar climbed
    against emerging-market currencies.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  190. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 7:46:38 PM

    Immigrant Melida Patricio Castro from Honduras shows a birth certificate for her daughter Maria Celeste, 2, to a U.S. Border Patrol agent near the U.S.-Mexico border on July 24, 2014 near Mission, Texas. Photographer: John Moore/Getty Images

    House Republicans, poised to head out for their August break, are staying in Washington to try to pass a plan addressing child migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, and some blame Republican Senator Ted Cruz.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  191. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 8:20:14 PM

    Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry talks about a three-day humanitarian cease-fire agreement between Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.
    Kerry, speaking in New Delhi, also announced talks will be held in Cairo on reaching a more lasting settlement. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip have agreed to a three-day humanitarian cease-fire and will start talks on a more lasting settlement, the U.S. and United Nations said.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  192. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 8:33:12 PM

    Bloomberg Businessweek’s Ashlee Vance visits the Tesla factory in Fremont, CA to find out what it takes to make the white-hot Model S. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) posted second-quarter sales of Model S electric sedans that matched analysts’ estimates as the company began deliveries to China. The carmaker said it broke ground on a site in Nevada for a planned battery factory while still evaluating other locations.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  193. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 5:21:22 PM

    William “Bill” Ackman, founder and chief executive officer of Pershing Square Capital Management LP. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

    Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has two words to sum up his Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) presentation last week: “My bad.”

    To read the entire article, go to

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  194. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 4:40:14 PM

    July 31 (Bloomberg) — BofA Merrill Lynch Global Economic Research Co-Head Ethan Harris discusses Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s leadership and labor-market slack on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    U.S. stocks joined a global selloff, erasing the year’s gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as Exxon (XOM) Mobil Corp. to Micron Technology Inc. tumbled amid weaker corporate results.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  195. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 7:37:56 PM

    Talks for the first major accord in
    the World Trade Organization’s 19-year history collapsed over
    objections raised by India, which was seeking to bolster farm

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  196. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 7:25:16 PM

    Kabam Inc., a producer of games for
    mobile devices, received a $120 million investment from Alibaba
    Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)
    as part of a plan to distribute titles like
    Lord of the Rings in China.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  197. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 11:01:01 AM

    Pedestrians wait to cross an intersection at a shopping street in Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    Japan’s bond investors are mirroring voters in turning away from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  198. From Bloomberg, Jul 29, 2014, 9:09:42 PM

    Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604)’s lowest profit
    in seven quarters signals the boost from Prime Minister Shinzo
    Abe’s economic stimulus policies for Japanese brokerages is

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  199. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 8:01:00 PM

    The World Health Organization and the
    West Africa nations hit hardest by deadly Ebola will pump $100
    million into an intensified effort against the disease that will
    deploy several hundred more health workers.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  200. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 1:29:54 PM

    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Geoffrey Yu, a senior currency strategist at UBS AG, discusses currency flows in and out of European stocks in light of geopolitical risk in the region and a stronger U.S. economy.
    He speaks with Bloomberg’s Niki O’Callaghan in London. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The international appetite for euro-zone financial assets that underpinned the local currency the
    past two years is beginning to erode.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  201. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 11:14:57 AM

    A shop foreman installs tumblers for the key cylinder during the service recall on a GM 2005 Chevrolet Cobalt at Liberty Chevrolet in New Hudson, Michigan, U.S. Photographer: Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg

    More than seven years before General Motors Co. began the biggest wave of auto recalls in history, an investigator for Vanguard Car Rental USA Inc. contacted the carmaker about a fatal rollover crash in California.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  202. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 5:40:13 PM

    Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas, speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, on March 6, 2014. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    House Speaker John Boehner is reaping dissent sown by Republican Senator Ted Cruz — and that’s working just fine for Cruz.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  203. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 12:00:31 AM

    Gay couples can now get married in 19 states, up from 12 at the time of the Windsor ruling. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

    If a U.S. Supreme Court decision
    legalizing gay marriage looks inevitable, perhaps it is.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  204. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 7:00:01 PM

    Record production of hydropower from
    China’s Three Gorges and newer dams is displacing so much coal
    that rates to transport it have plunged to about record lows,
    roiling the shipping market.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  205. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 6:20:56 PM

    Japanese carmaker Nissan Motor Co. last year signed a deal cutting wages for new workers at its Barcelona plant in return for guarantees a new model would be manufactured there, creating 1,000 jobs. Photographer: Stefano Buonamici/Bloomberg

    Joseba Prieto de las Heras thought a master’s degree would enable him to earn more. Spain’s labor market decided otherwise, forcing him to accept a position that pays half as much as a student job he had a few years earlier.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  206. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 1:00:00 PM

    China’s yuan is trading at the
    smallest discount to its fixing since the trading band was
    doubled in March, indicating the monetary authority has cut the
    scale of its interventions, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  207. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 4:28:49 PM

    It’s not getting easier.

    House Republicans today killed their own bill on the immigration crisis, which may be just as well: It wasn’t a bill so much as a meta-bill. Which is to say it was designed not to address the problem of scores of thousands of child immigrants showing up at the U.S.’s southern border, but the problem of Democrats saying House Republicans had failed to address the problem.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  208. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 6:03:30 PM

    The focus of Xi Jinping’s anti-graft drive needs to turn from personalities to root causes.

    What turns so many cadres bad in contemporary China? Busy purging a generation of corrupt officials from the Communist Party, Chinese President Xi Jinping may not have much time to worry about causes at the moment. This week he’s concerning himself with political fallout from the detention of Zhou Yongkang — China’s retired (and still-feared) security chief and formerly ninth-ranking member of the Politburo — for “serious discipline violations,” as the state newsmedia describes them.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  209. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 6:03:30 PM

    Wrong place, wrong time, wrong message.

    In May, India’s newly elected prime minister, Narendra Modi, pulled off a great photo op when he persuaded the heads of many South Asian states to attend his inauguration in New Delhi.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  210. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:35:29 PM

    House majority throws it back to the White House.

    The Catch today goes to … well, lots of people, but Jennifer Bendery put it best so far: “In last 24 hrs, House GOP 1) sued Obama for using exec authority and 2) said it’s up to Obama to use exec authority on border crisis. Ok!”

    To read the entire article, go to

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  211. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 1:03:35 PM

    House Speaker John Boehner should know his majority can’t last forever.

    No, there is no Republican lock on the House of Representatives. They’re going to keep the chamber this year, and any incumbent party always has an advantage. But after this year? Too early to know.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  212. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 12:06:29 PM

    People want livelihoods, not just jobs.

    A growing number of wealthy entrepreneurs are speaking out about the need for people to work less and do it in more flexible formats than the traditional 40-hour workweek. What Larry Page of Google Inc., Carlos Slim of America Movil SAB and Richard Branson of Virgin Group Ltd. suggest would help cure unemployment — itself an increasingly meaningless metric in a world with the current automation level.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  213. Exxon reserves judgment on drilling in Russian Arctic

    07:25 PM ET · XOM

    • Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) has been unflinching in its plan to drill for oil in the Russian Arctic, in spite of the rising tensions between the West and Russia, but comments after it reported Q2 earnings today seemed rather wobbly.
    • With XOM and Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF) set to drill the first well in the Kara Sea next month, XOM head of investor relations David Rosenthal said during the earnings call that it “wouldn’t be appropriate” to comment until sanctions are assessed further; when asked directly if the company still planning to begin drilling the first Kara well next month, he wouldn’t say.
    • With Q2 oil and natural gas output slipping 5.7% to 3.84M boe/day, the company’s lowest since Q3 2009, XOM needs new production avenues.
    • Meanwhile, Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) CEO Ben van Beurden said today it is monitoring the situation in Russia but that the company is keeping Arctic drilling on the table – in the U.S. – marking a shift from his previous suggestions that Shell’s Arctic ambitions might not mesh with the company’s bid to prove its fiscal restraint.

  214. Walter says it has enough liquidity despite weak met coal market

    06:26 PM ET · WLT

    • Walter Energy (NYSE:WLT) said during its earnings conference call today that it has enough liquidity to survive the weak market for steelmaking metallurgical coal and that industry efforts to cut excess supply are working.
    • WLT says it has $564M in cash, cash equivalents and available funds under its credit facilities at the end of Q2, and has no significant debt maturities until 2018; S&P said last month that WLT’s debt level is “unsustainable.”
    • In its Q2 earnings report, WLT lowered its full-year met coal sales outlook to 9.5M-10.5M tons from 10.5M-11.5M tons previously, primarily because WLT’s principal coal transportation provider at the Brule mine in Canada ceased operations in June.

  215. Southwestern Energy profit falls but revenue rises 20%

    05:49 PM ET · SWN

    • Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN) says its Q2 earnings fell 16% Y/Y, hurt by beaten-down natural gas prices and higher operating costs, but operating revenue rose 19.5% and both results finished slightly ahead of analyst estimates.
    • SWN’s Q2 gas and oil production rose 18% Y/Y, but its average realized price, including hedging effects, fell to $3.77 from $3.87 for natural gas, while oil prices rose to $103.27 from $99.31.
    • Q2 gas sales rose 17% to $717M, while oil sales rose to $5M from $3M a year earlier.
    • Raises FY 2014 production guidance to 758B-764B cfe from 740B-752B cfe, citing production levels at its Fayetteville and Marcellus shales.

  216. Expedia +2.3% AH on Q2 beat, bookings, dividend hike

    05:46 PM ET · EXPE

    • Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) is hiking its quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.18/share. That spells a 0.9% yield at current levels.
    • Gross bookings +29% Y/Y in Q2 (even with Q1′s growth rate) to $13.05B, and free cash flow +66% to $411M. U.S. bookings +35% to $7.9B, international bookings +21% to $5.2B. Agency bookings +38%, merchant bookings +19%.
    • Hotel room nights +28% Y/Y, an improvement from Q1′s +24%. Revenue/night -4%, though that’s better than Q1′s -10%. Air tickets sold +28%, revenue/ticket -5%.
    • Revenue as a % of gross bookings fell 45 bps Y/Y to 11.5%. Costs/expenses grew 21% to $1.23B, with sales/marketing spend (fueled by Google search ad buying) rising 26% to $737M.
    • $217M was spent on buybacks at an average price of $71.40.
    • Q2 results, PR

  217. Alpha Natural to cut 1,100 jobs in West Virginia downsizing

    05:23 PM ET · ANR

    • Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) announces plans to downsize its West Virginia mining operations, citing continuing weak markets, and current and impending EPA regulations that are weighing on central Appalachian operations.
    • ANR is expected to cut ~1,100 jobs at 11 West Virginia surface mines, which produced 4.2M tons of thermal and metallurgical coal through H1 of this year.

  218. SunPower -4.7% AH on slightly soft guidance

    04:52 PM ET · SPWR

    • SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) expects Q3 revenue of $600M-$650M and EPS of $0.15-$0.35; the midpoints are below a consensus of $636.8M and $0.29. Full-year guidance is for revenue of $2.5B-$2.65B and EPS of $1.10-$1.40; the midpoints are below a consensus of $2.59B and $1.31.
    • Q2 gross margin was 19.5%, down from Q1′s 22% but flat Y/Y. GM is expected to fall to 17%-19% in Q3, but is also expected to be in a 19%-21% range for the whole of 2014.
    • SunPower expects to recognize revenue in 2014 from 1.225GW-1.3GW of solar product sales. The company’s total pipeline is at ~8.4GW – 3GW in the Americas, 2.6GW in Asia-Pac, 2GW in the Middle East/Africa, 800MW in Europe.
    • The Americas were 72% of Q2 revenue, EMEA 10%, and Asia-Pac 18%. Solar products revenue totaled $237M, systems revenue $338M, and lease revenue $33M. 311MW of solar cells were produced, up from 306MW in Q1 and 296MW a year ago.
    • Q2 results, PR, datasheet, slides

  219. High expectations lead GoPro to tumble post-earnings

    04:32 PM ET · GPRO

    • Though GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) beat Q2 estimates, expectations were high following a giant post-IPO rally. In addition, initial post-IPO analyst estimates have a history of being conservative.
    • Gross margin rose to 42.2% in Q2 from 41.1% in Q1 and 32.3%. Excluding opex-related stock compensation spend (rose to $34M from just $2.3M a year ago thanks to the IPO), opex rose 41% Y/Y to $85.5M.
    • GoPro videos published on YouTube rose over 160% Y/Y, with views rising 200%. The company notes it had the 3 best-selling camera/camcorder units, and 6 of the top 10 best-selling camera accessory units, in the U.S. in June (per NPD).
    • GPRO -10.3% AH. Q2 results, PR

  220. Stocks swoon, surrendering all of July’s gains

    04:25 PM ET

    • Fed policy jitters, sanctions on Russia, Argentina’s default, deflation worries in Europe,a batch of weak earnings and plain ol’ profit-taking combined to rout stocks, sending the Dow and S&P 500 plunging to finish their first monthly drop since January.
    • Sentiment was negative from the start as European markets tumbled after eurozone inflation unexpectedly declined, highlighting worries that the region’s economy is not healthy enough to support increased prices; also, Portuguese bank Banco Espirito Santo reported a big H1 net loss that drove its stock price down 50%.
    • Disappointing Q2 results from the likes of Exxon, Whole Foods and Akamai interrupted what had been a strong earnings season, and data showing a strong labor market a day after U.S. GDP grew 4% sparked some concerns that the Fed might move more quickly than had been expected to pull back on its easy money policies.
    • Declines were broad, with tech and energy stocks leading all 10 of the S&P 500′s industry groups lower; each of the Dow’s 30 stocks fell; even rate-sensitive utilities and telecoms were swallowed up in the selling wave.
    • Participation spiked to 900M-plus shares traded at the NYSE.
    • Treasurys ended flat after regaining their early morning losses; the 10-year yield settled at 2.56%.

  221. Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance

    04:19 PM ET · TSLA

    • Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) beats estimates in Q2 and delivers some re-assuring production guidance.
    • The EV automaker had 7,579 delivers in Q2 vs. 7,546 consensus.
    • Revenue for the quarter included $23M from Daimler and Toyota for powertrain purchases.
    • The gross margin rate of 26.8% in Q2 is in-line with the forecast of analysts and leaves Tesla with a little bit of catching up to do in 2H to meet its 28% target for the year.
    • Production guidance for Q3 is for 7,800 Model S deliveries. The mark is below expectations with the company citing a two-week production shutdown at its Fremont factory as the reason for the anticipated shortfall.
    • Tesla says it expects a delivery rate of over 100K unit by the end of next year if there are no serious macroeconomic calamities.
    • Ground has broken in Nevada on a “potential” Gigafactory site.
    • Tesla Motor letter to shareholders (.pdf)
    • TSLA +2.1% AH to $228.01.

  222. LinkedIn +9% AH on Q2 beat, guidance, ad sales pickup

    04:19 PM ET · LNKD

    • LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) expects Q3 revenue of $543M-$547M and EPS of $0.44, above a consensus of $540.9M and $0.40. Full-year guidance is for revenue of $2.14B-$2.15B and EPS of $1.80, above a consensus of $2.13B and $1.64. The company has a history of guiding conservatively.
    • Marketing Solutions (ad sales, 20% of revenue) growth accelerated to 44% Y/Y in Q2 from 36% in Q1, and helped drive the Q2 beat. Growth had been pressured in prior quarters by a transition to sponsored news feed ads.
    • Talent Solutions (jobs, 60% of revenue) +49% vs. +50% in Q1. Subscriptions (20% of revenue) +44% vs. +46% in Q1. The U.S. was 60% of revenue, same as Q1.
    • Likely helping ad sales: Traffic to posts from publishers and “influencers” has more than doubled since February, when a new publishing platform was launched. LinkedIn, whose engagement is lighter than that of most other popular social networks, says the platform is now producing 30K+ long-form posts per week.
    • Total GAAP costs/expenses +46% Y/Y to $519.8M. Sales/marketing +51% to $184.5M, R&D +35% to $128.7M.
    • Q2 results, PR

  223. At the close

    04:00 PM ET

    • Dow -1.83% to 16,571.08. S&P -1.99% to 1,930.77. Nasdaq -2.09% to 4,369.77.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.12%. 10-yr -0.02%. 5-yr +0.04%.
    • Commodities: Crude -2.27% to $98.00. Gold -0.87% to $1,285.60.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.05% vs. dollar. Yen +0.05%. Pound +0.17%.

  224. World Wrestling +3% on earnings beat, job cuts

    03:58 PM ET · WWE

    • World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE +3.2%) is an unusual gainer in an otherwise down day, after reporting a smaller than expected Q2 loss and announcing a 10-year deal with Rogers Media to be the exclusive distribution partner of all WWE pay-per-view events throughout Canada.
    • The company plans to get its WWE Network to 1.4M subscribers; almost twice the number it had at the end of Q2; to achieve that, it announces new pricing options and plans to cut its workforce by 7%.

  225. Sell-side defends Glu amid carnage

    02:42 PM ET · GLUU

    • “Glu (GLUU -17%) raised FY14 revenue and EBITDA guidance materially to reflect the ongoing trajectory of [Kim Kardashian: Hollywood], but given low visibility, Glu is also factoring in an assumption that KKH will fall in the ranks over the next several months,” writes Piper’s Michael Olson, discussing the guidance that (though well above consensus) has sparked a massive selloff due to high pre-earnings expectations.
    • Olson is still reiterating an Overweight. In addition to being upbeat about the Kardashian game, he notes recent releases “have shown a pattern of version-over-version improvement in top grossing rankings, suggesting [Glu] has created a better ‘formula’ for improving monetization strategies.”
    • Needham’s Sean McGowan also likes how Glu is expanding its list of top-grossing titles, and calls the company well-positioned to beat guidance. Cowen’s Doug Creutz calls the Cie Games acquisition (expected by Glu to contribute ~$16M in 2014 revenue) “an attractive addition to what is becoming a diverse portfolio of hit titles.”
    • Shares still +52% from where they traded before the Kardashian game launched.
    • Q2 results, guidance/Cie announcement

  226. Heard during DirecTV’s earnings call

    02:42 PM ET · DTV

    • Sports were a big topic during DirecTV’s (DTV -0.5%) earnings call this afternoon.
    • The FIFA World Cup was the primary driver of subscriber additions in Q2.
    • Discussions with Disney are going well. Rates have been agreed upon for a deal covering the SEC network.
    • Management is very confident a deal will be struck to keep the NFL Sunday Ticket as part of its programming past this year. The package is considered integral to AT&T interest in the pay-TV operator. There is no change in thinking over opening up access to the premium package.
    • On the stalemate with Time Warner Cable over SportsNet LA, execs say TWC wants the equivalent of $26 per subscriber for the sports package which included the Dodgers. Condolences are offered to Dodgers fans, but there’s no room for optimism that a deal is imminent.
    • Outside of sports, the company indicated that it expects free cash flow to grow over 10% Y/Y in 2014 with U.S. capex spending targeted to be lower.
    • Earnings call webcast

  227. Immelt promises complete retail credit exit by end of 2015

    12:12 PM ET · GE

    • “The IPO also furthers our goal to position GE Capital as a smaller, safer specialty finance leader, and achieve 75% of our earnings from our Industrial businesses by 2016,” says General Electric (GE -1.2%) chief Jeff Immelt, commenting on last night’s IPO of his company’s North American retail credit unit, Synchrony Financial.
    • “The Synchrony offering is an important first step in our planned, staged exit from the business. We continue to target completing our exit in late 2015 through a capital-efficient split-off transaction.”
    • Press release
    • Previously: Synchrony Financial started a Buy at BTIG after IPO

  228. Vonage -13.7% on sub losses, guidance; new financing obtained

    11:45 AM ET · VG

    • Along with its Q2 results, Vonage (NYSE:VG) announces it has obtained a new $225M credit facility. $90M of the proceeds will be used to retire debt under an existing facility.
    • Vonage lost 6.7K subs in Q2, a reversal from Q1 and year-ago adds of 12.5K and 2.5K, respectively. Its total sub base stood at 2.55M at quarter’s end.
    • The company now expects 5% 2014 revenue growth, below a 6.9% consensus. If adjusted for the acquisition of business VoIP service provider Vocalocity, guidance would be for revenue to be flat to down 2%.
    • 2H net customer adds will be lower than previously expected due to “actions to optimize the profitability of certain sales channels, and timing differences in the rollout of BasicTalk to additional locations and in the expansion of marketing in Brazil.” Nonetheless, EBITDA guidance has been hiked to $106M-$112M.
    • ARPU fell to $28.59 in Q2 from $28.86 in Q1 and $29.06 a year ago. Churn was 2.6%, even with Q1 but up from 2.4% a year ago. Marketing costs per gross sub add were $342 vs. $299 in Q1 and $375 a year ago. $13M was spent on buybacks.
    • Shares had rallied going into earnings, aided by positive reports from peers.
    • Q2 results, PR

  229. Suncor sinks as Q2 earnings fall short, Joslyn oil sands project scaled back

    11:21 AM ET · SU

    • Suncor Energy (SU -2.3%) is sharply lower despite reporting Q2 earnings that rose 18% Y/Y but failed to meet analyst expectations.
    • SU took a $718M writeoff to account for its share in the Joslyn oil sands project, which was mothballed by partner Total earlier this year, wrote down the value of its Libyan assets by $297M, and booked a $223M charge for oil sands assets that no longer fit into its future plans.
    • SU cut its FY 2014 capital spending plan to C$6.8B from a previous target of C$7.8B in a bid to further reduce costs.
    • Q2 production totaled 518.4K boe/day, up 3.6% Y/Y; output from Alberta operations rose 37% to 378.8K boe/day due to less maintenance in the quarter and increasing production from its Firebag thermal oil sands operations.
    • Cash flow rose to $2.41B ($1.64/share) from $2.25B ($1.49/share).

  230. Micron tumbles following Samsung’s results, DRAM forecast

    11:18 AM ET · SSNLF

    • Samsung’s (OTC:SSNLF, OTC:SSNGY) memory sales were a strong point for the company in Q2: They rose 10% Q/Q and 21% Y/Y to KRW6.92T ($6.7B). But the company also hiked its 2014 DRAM industry bit supply forecast to low-30% growth from a prior high-20%. Samsung itself expects to grow bit production at a high-40% rate.
    • Morgan Stanley notes Samsung once forecast mid-20% industry growth, and that it’s increasing capex to make another production line DRAM-capable in 2015. MS reported earlier this month Samsung is planning to hike its DRAM output.
    • Micron (MU -7.7%), whose shares have soared on expectations a favorable DRAM supply/demand balance will continue, isn’t taking the news well. Samsung’s production hike is also a negative for SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCL).
    • Samsung fell 3.7% overnight in Seoul, though that arguably had more to do with the performance of its mobile ops than its chip ops. Weak high-end tablet sales and smartphone share losses to Chinese OEMs led mobile sales to fall 12% Q/Q and 21% Y/Y to KRW27.5T ($26.6B).
    • The company expects 2H mobile sales to grow with the help of seasonality, but also (in what’s at least a partial reference to the iPhone 6) cautions competition is set to intensify.
    • Samsung’s Q2 slides (.pdf)

  231. QuickLogic -19.6% due to weak guidance

    10:12 AM ET · QUIK

    • Though QuickLogic (NASDAQ:QUIK) beat Q2 estimates, it guided on its CC (transcript) for Q3 revenue of just $4M (+/- 10%), well below an $11.1M consensus. $2M in revenue is expected for new products, and $2M for “mature” products.
    • The chipmaker blames weak sales of display bridge ICs for tablets amid slumping tablet market demand. Much of the weakness appears tied to Samsung, which accounted for 40% of Q2 revenue (down from 70% in Q1). Three months ago, QuickLogic blames its light Q2 guidance on a tablet inventory overhang.
    • QuickLogic says it has many “engagements” for its ArcticLink 3 S1 sensor hub, and that it also has engagements at Samsung it expects “will enter production later this year and during the first half of 2015.”
    • One potentially high-volume engagement exists with a mobile OEM for the company’s PolarPro III programmable logic IC, and another exists for “a smart connectivity design for a high-end smartphone specifically designed for the Chinese market.”
    • Q2 results, PR

  232. Lululemon draws interest with shares below $40

    10:50 AM ET · LULU

    • Susquehanna sees momentum building at Lulelmon (LULU -1.1%).
    • The investment firm initiates coverage on the retailer with a Positive rating and rosy $49 price target.
    • Some of the recent bulls who have emerged on LULU are tacking on a takeover premium for the stock. Though it could be a long waiting game – V.F. Corp, Nike, and Gap have been bantered around as possible bidders.

  233. Phil – Neither of the links that you posted at 4:22 pm work in regards to seeing either replay (at least for me). Can you please check them. Thank you!

  234. lol730-- interesting read. Hard to argue with his logic. But I am like you. Disagree with 50% but agree with his conclusion. 

  235. albo

    Sorry about QUIK news.

  236. Peter/Stangles – Not sure if you are watching chat daily, but I'm curious about when you would begin to sell more premium to take advantage of the elevated VIX. Do you have a rule of thumb?  We have a very small position right now, due to the potential for a significant correction, which is looking very wise right now.  Do you plan on waiting for us to get more oversold before selling more?

  237. Diamond/Phil;  It took a while to buffer but the second one did play for me.  I did not try the earlier one.  BTW you need to create an account in WebEx.

  238. Good morning!

    Yes, Diamond, what Options saiid.  I have an account so I didn't realize you need one but the links work once they buffer.  With one-hour videos, I can see why the don't stream. 

    Futures were up a bit on China 

    PMI but Hamas broke cease-fire after just 3 hours.  Still isn't helping oil amazingly – $97.50.  

    Europe down over 1% again – not good!

  239. Friday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET

  240. Fiat shareholders to vote on Chrysler merger

    03:52 AM ET · FIATY

    • Fiat (OTCPK:FIATY) shareholders are expected to approve a deal today over the Italian automaker’s merger with its U.S. unit Chrysler.
    • The merger will incorporate the two as a Dutch-registered company called Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and will pave the way for a U.S. share listing.
    • A two-thirds majority vote is needed to approve the deal.

  241. WTO trade agreement fails over India’s farmer subsidy concerns

    04:30 AM ET

    • Negotiations over the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement collapsed after it’s midnight deadline passed without India’s full agreement to the pact.
    • The deal’s failure calls into question the ability of the WTO to serve as a forum for international accords as well as its status as an arbiter of trade disputes.
    • The WTO estimated that the deal would have added more than $1T to the world economy by reducing regulatory hurdles at international borders.

  242. Report: iPhone 6 may launch in October

    03:10 AM ET · AAPL

    • MacRumors reports that the iPhone 6 launch date may now have been pushed off to Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) “incredibly busy” month of October – citing a source knowledgeable about an internal Apple Retail Store meeting.
    • Prior reports suggested that the iPhone 6 would begin selling in September, although it now seems that Apple will only announce the device in September, but will begin selling the iPhone 6 on October 14.
    • It is still unknown if an October release for the iPhone 6 would include both the 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch version.

  243. Russian companies hurry to convert reserves

    03:36 AM ET · RSX

    • Some of Russia’s largest companies are starting to move their cash reserves to Asian banks as worries surface that Russia could eventually be completely shut out of U.S. dollar funding markets.
    • Yesterday, the EU adopted its toughest Russian sanctions to date, including heavy restrictions on the country’s financial markets, energy industry and a complete embargo of the arms trade between the two

  244. Mobileye prices IPO at $25 per share

    02:37 AM ET · MBLY

    • Mobileye’s (Pending:MBLY) IPO has been priced at $25 per share, valuing the road-safety technology company at approximately $5.3B. Mobileye will raise about $208.3M from the offering, and shares will begin trading this morning on the NYSE.
    • The Israeli company’s collision-avoidance technology is used in more than 3M vehicles made by BMW, GM, and Tesla.
    • Out of the 35.6M shares being offered, Mobileye is selling 8.33M while the rest are being sold by shareholders.

  245. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 3:36:14 AM

    Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) — Ashok Shah, investment director at London & Capital Group Ltd., discusses the U.S. economy, European sanctions on Russia and the outlook for Europe’s banking industry.
    He speaks with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Bond issuance by banks in Europe
    slumped last month, making it the slowest July since 2001 as
    lenders waited for the next round of stimulus efforts by the
    European Central Bank.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  246. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 12:40:05 PM

    A demonstration of BMEX’s Robocoin-branded automated teller machine (ATM) in Tokyo, on June 18, 2014. Photographer: Yuriko Nakao/Bloomberg

    I’ve been to quite a few bitcoin gatherings, where the standard attire is a sweaty T-shirt and sneakers. This week’s Digital Currencies conference in New York was different. It felt more like a Wall Street confab than the usual fellowship of the neckbeards.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  247. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 3:10:58 AM

    Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) — Severin Cabannes, deputy chief executive officer at Societe Generale SA, talks about second-quarter earnings at France’s second-largest bank, the impact of sanctions against Russia on operations in that country and Societe Generale’s readiness for European bank stress tests this year.
    Cabannes speaks with Bloomberg Television’s Caroline Connan in Paris. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Societe Generale SA (GLE), France’s second-largest bank, posted a 7.8 percent increase in second-quarter
    profit, helped by a decline in provisions for doubtful loans.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  248. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 4:30:00 AM

    U.K. manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in a year in July as a cooling in new orders and output ended the first half’s “stellar growth spurt,” Markit Economics said today.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  249. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 3:53:07 AM

    Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) — The pickup in China’s manufacturing last month will help its growth outlook even as the country faces a property bubble and the risk of a banking crisis, according to Gabriel Stein, director of asset management services at Oxford Economics.
    He speaks with Mark Barton, Caroline Hyde and Ryan Chilcote on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    China’s manufacturing expanded in
    July at the fastest pace in more than two years, signaling a
    pickup in economic growth is strengthening amid government
    support policies.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  250. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 11:20:13 PM

    Hong Kong one-hundred dollar banknotes and a U.S. one-hundred dollar banknote are arranged for a photograph in Hong Kong, China. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg

    Hong Kong’s de facto central bank bought $2.07 billion this week to stop the local currency from strengthening beyond its 31-year-old peg to the greenback.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  251. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 3:30:39 AM

    Fernandez de Kirchner denied the country defaulted on its debtin her first public comments since Standard & Poor’s said thenation had done just that for the second time in 13 years. Photographer: Grigoriy Sisoev/Host Photo Agency via Getty Images

    Argentina’s President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner denied the country defaulted on its debt in her first public comments since Standard & Poor’s said the nation had done just that for the second time in 13 years.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  252. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 10:56:53 PM

    The biggest selloff in emerging-market stocks since March is handing losses to investors who
    piled in as the benchmark index rose to an 18-month high.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  253. Watch this video at

    Euro Seen Weaker on Geopolitical Risk, U.S. Data

    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Geoffrey Yu, a senior currency strategist at UBS AG, discusses currency flows in and out of European stocks in light of geopolitical risk in the region and a stronger U.S. economy.
    He speaks with Bloomberg’s Niki O’Callaghan in London. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  254. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 12:01:03 AM

    July 11 (Bloomberg) — Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart talks about U.S. inflation and economic growth, monetary policy and the outlook for Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s appearance before Congress next week.
    Lockhart speaks with Michael McKee at the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Bloomberg Television’s “Bottom Line.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    The Federal Reserve is trying to change as little as possible as it crafts its strategy to exit from record stimulus. The trouble is financial markets have changed so much that the still-developing plan may prove costly and ultimately unworkable.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  255. Watch this video at

    Crossrail CEO Sees $71 Bln Boost to U.K. Economy

    July 25 (Bloomberg) — Andrew Wolstenholme, chief executive officer of Crossrail Ltd., discusses the 42 billion pounds ($71 billion) boost to the U.K. economy that the new high-speed rail network from the west to the east of London is projected to bring.
    He talks in London with Caroline Hyde on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  256. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 4:00:00 AM

    Italian manufacturing grew at the
    slowest pace in eight months in July, evidence that the euro
    region’s third-biggest economy is struggling to build momentum.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  257. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 2:31:23 AM

    Shares in Skymark dived 14 percent after Airbus said it has cancelled a $2.2 billion deal with the Japanese budget airline.

    Ask Japanese Internet millionaire Shinichi Nishikubo about Shinzo Abe’s weak yen and you’ll get an earful.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  258. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 11:01:26 AM

    How much are your snaps worth? 

    Drug use is on the rise in Silicon Valley: There are 1.4 million prescriptions for the opioid hydrocodone in the Bay Area (population 7 million), and ambitious tech workers are doing more and more street drugs such as cocaine, meth and heroin, the San Jose Mercury News recently reported. Current start-up valuations certainly look hallucinogen-induced. Ephemeral messaging app Snapchat, which has not made a cent in the three years since it was conceived in a frat house, is now reportedly worth $10 billion — less than eight months after chief executive officer Evan Spiegel spurned a $3 billion takeover bid from Facebook.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  259. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 3:56:07 AM

    European stocks fell to a three-month
    low, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index posted a second month of
    losses, as companies including ArcelorMittal (MT) posted worse-than-forecast earnings. U.S. stock futures were little changed and
    Asian shares slid.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  260. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 3:36:14 AM

    Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) — Ashok Shah, investment director at London & Capital Group Ltd., discusses the U.S. economy, European sanctions on Russia and the outlook for Europe’s banking industry.
    He speaks with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Bond issuance by banks in Europe
    slumped last month, making it the slowest July since 2001 as
    lenders waited for the next round of stimulus efforts by the
    European Central Bank.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  261. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 4:48:21 AM

    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Tony Dwyer, an equity strategist and managing director at Canaccord Genuity Securities LLC, talks about today’s decline in the U.S. stock market.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased gains for the year, losing 317.06 points, or 1.9 percent, to 16,563.30. Dwyer speaks with Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Asian stocks slumped, extending the
    biggest global rout in six months that saw the Dow Jones
    Industrial Average
    wipe out this year’s gains in one session
    amid weaker earnings and credit-market concerns.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  262. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 4:42:48 AM

    Macau casino revenue fell in July as
    the World Cup, which ended mid-month, distracted bettors while
    business from high-stakes gamblers remained weak.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  263. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 4:41:40 AM

    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners Ltd., discusses the U.S. economy, European Union trade sanctions against Russia, the outlook for Argentinian bondholders after Standard & Poor’s declared the country in default yesterday and Banco Espirito Santo SA’s first-half net loss of 3.6 billion euros ($4.8 billion).
    He speaks with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    For Portugal, the Espirito Santo
    family’s fall from grace has provided a rare peek into the
    nation’s more-than-a-century-old banking dynasty.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  264. From Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2014, 3:56:03 AM

    PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), the most indebted
    coal producer in Asia, is trying to sweeten its debt-exchange
    offer, sending a letter to holders of its $375 million bonds
    ahead of a repayment deadline next week.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  265. options_alpha/Phil – Thanks!