Archive for August, 2014

SKiLLeD LaBoR…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





Double Whammy China PMI Misses Spark Sell-Side Demands For More Stimulus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A record-breaking surge in monthly credit creation and a trillion Yuan of QE-lite was enough to provide a glimmer of hope into the tumbling Chinese economy for one or maybe two months but with the real estate market continuing to free-fall, it should be no surprise that China’s PMIs finally catch down to the erstwhile reality simmering under the surface in the ultimate centrally-planned economy. China’s official government PMI dropped from 30-month highs, missed expectations and the early month flash print, to less exuberant 51.1 reading (with Steel industry new orders totally collapsing) with both medium- and small-companies printing contractionary sub-50 levels. Then (after Japan’s PMI beat – of course it did as hard data crashes worst on record), HSBC China PMI also missed, printing a slightly expansionary 50.2 Showing, as BofA warns “the two PMIs both show that the current recovery is relatively weak and choppy…” and RBS adds “we expect the government to interpret such an outlook as challenging its growth target and to take more, and more significant, measures to support growth.”

 

 

As Goldman writes,

August official PMI tends to be biased on the upside. Since the data started in 2005, this is the second time it fell in August (first time was August 2012). The degree of seasonality probably has been reduced in recent years but may still exist. This suggests underlying slowdown might be more meaningful, which is consistent with the weak reading of the HSBC PMI.

 

Almost all components showed signs of cyclical slowdown, which indicates the evidence of an incremental slowdown is conclusive. Among them the new orders and production sub-indexes are particularly important because unlike the headline readings they do not lag mom IP and have a closer fit with mom IP readings. Both fell meaningfully in August. In terms of drivers of weaker orders, export orders fell less than overall orders but the difference was not large.

 

We believe this weakening reflects less supportive policy stance since July and possibly less supportive underlying exports growth. Gradual deceleration from strong sequential growth in June is consistent with our forecasts, though there is risk of a steeper deceleration if policy and monetary/credit conditions don’t ease meaningfully from the July stance. We are still on


continue reading





Does France Need A 21st Century Revolution?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Saxobank's Steen Jakobsen via TradingFloor.com,

French President François Hollande unveiled his new government under Prime Minister Manuel Valls on August 26, and there have been a few changes. While most senior ministers have retained their positions, economic minister Arnaud Montebourg was replaced by Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker and economic adviser at the Elysée.

Hollande is already the most unpopular president in French history so he is not risking much by removing a political opponent like Montebourg (who should never have been part of a so-called reform program to begin with). Montebourg is a man of the old school and of old ideas: Among other things, he titled himself "Minister of Industrial Resurrection." His ideas included threatening to fine businesses for each job they failed to create and speaking against globalisation.

French citizens participate in a general strike

Mired in economic stagnation and barely concealed unrest, France is a nation that often seems displeased with its lot. But will things have to get worse before they get better? Photo: Getty

The problem for President Hollande and any reform efforts is that, as much as removing Montebourg was a victory for his economic strategy, it was also a loss in terms of his political ability to rule both his party and the French state. We often forget that economic policy without political backing is like skiing without snow: Policy needs political anchoring. 

The supply-side economics and ideas of Prime Minister Valls are good, but they are not sufficient to stop the "rotting of France". More and more observers argue that what France needs is either an European Central Bank that goes into full Quantitative Easing mode, a France that pushes for fiscal expansion, or even both. Not only is that short-sighted, it´s also wrong: France needs a new political system, a new tax regime, a less bloated government sector, and fewer subsidies. France is not lost, it´s just disorientated and lacks purpose.

France is its own worst enemy. It believes in old virtues and ideas from a time gone by. Dirigisme, the French version of socialist capitalism, has failed. In its place there needs to appear a a robust commitment to its strong and well-educated workforce. France has the ability to innovate and its early stage small- and medium-enterprise support ranks among…
continue reading





Middle-East ‘Frenemies’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The enemy of your enemy is your… frenemy; and so it is across the Middle East as the WSJ notes the spread of The Islamic State has united many parties once at odds with each other to become ‘strange bedfellows‘.

 

Strange Bedfellows
Parties that display friction or outright aggression toward one another are finding themselves aligned in a desire to counter Islamic State.

Groups of colored lines between parties represent shared interests.

 

U.S. and Iran
The U.S. and Iran share an interest in fostering an Iraqi government strong enough to fend off Islamic State.

U.S. and Syria
The U.S. and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad share an interest in quashing Islamic State in Syria, even if the regime appears to put a higher priority on fighting other rebel groups.

Israel and Egypt
Israel and Egypt have come together to oppose Hamas, and they now have a similar long-term interest to do the same in confronting Islamic State.

Syria, Kurds, Turkey and Iraq
Turkey and Syria, long fearful of building up the region’s Kurds, have a shared interest in building up the Kurdish Peshmerga to combat a more immediate threat, Islamic State. Iraq has acquiesced.

Turkey and Qatar
Turkey and Qatar suddenly have a shared interest in keeping the Islamist movement they separately helped foster in check before Islamic State absorbs and consolidates it.

Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Saudi Arabia supported Sunnis in Iraq while Iran supported Shiites. They now have an interest in aiding the Shiite-led Iraq government to counter a common threat.

U.S., China and Russia
Russia and China have plenty of disputes with the U.S., but they agree that, as big powers, they are threatened in similar fashion by the expansionist Islamic extremism of Islamic State.

U.S., Egypt, Qatar and Turkey
Egypt’s military ruler sees Qatar, Turkey and the U.S. as hostile to his suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood. They all now fear Islamic State will consolidate the Islamic threat.

U.S. and al Qaeda
The greatest odd bedfellow of all: Islamic State threatens al Qaeda as well as the West, meaning that, in fact, al Qaeda and the U.S. now have a shared enemy.

 

Full Wall Street Journal interactive chart here…





Libya May Be Focus Of Major Rift Between US And Regional Allies

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Defense & Foreign Affairs via OilPrice.com,

It had become clear by late August 2014 that Libya could no longer be seen as a unified state; at best it was in two parts, even with the communal leaderships of both sides professing a desire to resume national unity. By late August 2014, the country had two parliaments: one elected by the Libyan people, and the other given legitimacy solely by foreign support.   

The situation seemed so intractable by that point that it was possible that a full military intervention by regional states, perhaps spearheaded by Egypt, could be attempted, with the goal of stabilizing the country and eliminating the foreign-funded and foreign-armed jihadis who were using Libya as a springboard for a proposed pro-Islamist war against the current Egyptian Government.

The proxy forces of the 2011 unilateral intervention by Qatar, supporting jihadis and the Muslim Brothers (Ikhwan), and by Turkey and the US, into the Cyrenaican revolt against Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi, were still dominating the Libyan political scene, much to the frustration of Libyan tribal forces.

Qatar was creating a “Free Egyptian Army” in the Cyrenaica desert, and patterned on the “Free Syrian Army” which Qatar, Turkey, and the US had built to challenge Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.  

Significantly, while the US and European Union (EU) continued in August 2014 to promote the concept of a unified Libya, they were basing their approach around what was essentially a modification of the mode of governance practiced by Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi, who seized power by a coup in 1969, and held it until 2011. Widespread Libyan calls for a return to the 1951 Constitution — drafted by the United Nations and the 140 or so Libyan tribes — have been consistently ignored by Washington and Brussels.  

By August 2014, the foreign jihadist fighters — mainly linked to salafist groups and either directly or indirectly working with the Muslim Brothers (Ikhwan) — were still entrenched in Cyrenaica, in Eastern Libya (where the local moderate. anti-salafist Senussiyah sect of Islam predominates), supported by Qatar, Turkey, and the US Government. As well, they were entrenched around Tripoli.  

By August 18, 2014, the situation had deteriorated to the point where United Arab Emirates (UAE) combat aircraft, operating from Egyptian bases, conducted air strikes against jihadist militia…
continue reading





The Fall Is Golden For Bullion Bulls

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

September is the hottest month of the year for gold prices, rising on average 3% over the past 20 years. As the yellow metal tests hovers off 2-month-lows, Bloomberg notes that "Indian jewelers and dealers will be stocking up in the coming weeks," ahead of the festival period, which runs from late August to October (andis followed by the wedding season) when bullion is bought for part of the bridal trousseau or in jewelry form as gifts from relatives. As GoldCore's Mark O'Byrne notes, "a lot of traders are aware of this trend towards seasonal strength… They tend to buy and that creates momentum."

 

Chart: Bloomberg

Some color on the week's Precious Metals Trading from Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney,

The pattern of trading in precious metals changed for the better this week. After London's bank holiday on Monday, for the first time in a long time the market opened in London's pre-market with higher prices. This indicated Asian or Middle-Eastern physical demand was returning to the market. Predictably, prices drifted lower during London hours as paper trading took over, and all the gains were more or less lost by close of play on Comex in New York.

It was a similar story on Wednesday. Yesterday, (Thursday) started the same way, but this time the move gained more traction; but volumes remain pitifully low, in common with open interest. Today this pattern was not repeated with gold kicking off unchanged on overnight levels. However, gold is up $15 on the week and feels more firmly based.

Measured by deliveries on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Chinese demand is increasing, with last week's figure rising to 46 tonnes, having increased every week in August. So far this year over 1,200 tonnes have been delivered, and the extension of trading and therefore potential demand into the Free Trade Zone is due to kick off in September.

The chart of the gold price and open interest on Comex is shown below.

Gold Open Interest

August is a notoriously poor trading month, with traders in the northern hemisphere on holiday, or at least not thinking about markets. September is wake-up time, and statistically the best month for gold. Will this be the pattern this year?

Trading in silver continues to be healthier,…
continue reading





Putin Calls for Eastern Ukraine Statehood

Courtesy of Mish.

Putin threw fat into the Ukrainian fire today by calling for Talks on Eastern Ukraine Statehood.

The question at hand is” What precisely does Putin mean by “statehood” ?

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Sunday for immediate talks on the “statehood” of southern and eastern Ukraine, although his spokesman said this did not mean Moscow now endorsed rebel calls for independence for territory they have seized.

The Kremlin leader’s remarks, two days after a public appearance in which he compared the Kiev government with Nazis and warned the West not to “mess with us”, came as Europe and the United States prepared possible further sanctions to halt what they say is direct Russian military involvement in the war in Ukraine.

Germany aired suspicions that Moscow might be trying to create a land corridor to supply Crimea, which it annexed from Ukraine in March, while the four-month conflict moved onto the sea for the first time on Sunday. The separatists said they had fired on a Ukrainian vessel in the Azov Sea using land-based artillery, and a military spokesman in Kiev said a rescue operation was under way.

Ukrainian troops and local residents were reinforcing the port of Mariupol on Sunday, the next big city in the path of pro-Russian fighters who pushed back government forces along the Azov Sea this past week in an offensive on a new front.

Talks should be held immediately “and not just on technical issues but on the political organization of society and statehood in southeastern Ukraine”, Putin said in an interview with Channel 1 state television, his hair tousled by wind on the shore of a lake.

Moscow, for its part, he said, could not stand aside while people were being shot “almost at point blank”.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no new endorsement from Moscow for rebel independence. Asked if “New Russia”, a term pro-Moscow rebels use for their territory, should still be part of Ukraine, Peskov said: “Of course.”

“Only Ukraine can reach an agreement with New Russia, taking into account the interests of New Russia, and this is the only way to reach a political settlement.”

Federation or Totally Independent Eastern State?

If one takes the statements from Russia at face value, it appears


continue reading





Inflation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity,

For close to 300 years, inflation in the US remained very subdued. Small spurts occurred around major wars (Revolutionary, Civil, WW1, etc), but after each, inflation quickly trended back down to its long-term baseline. If you lived during this stretch of time, your money had roughly the same purchasing power your great-grandfather’s did.

But something changed after inflation spiked yet again during World War 2. With the permanent mobilization of the military industrial complex and the start of the decades-long Cold War, combined with a related acceleration in government deficit spending, inflation did not come back down. It remained elevated, and in fact, rose further.

That is, until the “Nixon shock” in 1971, when the dollar’s remaining ties to gold were severed. Then inflation EXPLODED. And the inflationary moon-shot has continued since, up to present day.

So, we’ve become used to a system in which our money loses purchasing power over the years. For anyone aged 50 or younger, it’s pretty much all we’ve ever known.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. Indeed, our country did fine for centuries without systemic continual chronic inflation.

So why do we accept it today?

For the best viewing experience, watch the above video in hi-definition (HD) and in expanded screen mode

Coming next Friday: Chapter 12: How Much Is A Trillion?

For those who simply don’t want to wait until the end of the year to view the entire new series, you can indulge your binge-watching craving by enrolling to PeakProsperity.com. The entire full new series, all 27 chapters of it, is available — now-- to our enrolled users.

The full suite of chapters in this new Crash Course series can be found at www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse

And for those who have yet to view it, be sure to watch the ‘Accelerated’ Crash Course — the under-1-hour condensation of the new 4.5-hour series. It’s a great vehicle for introducing new eyes to this material.

Click here to read the full transcript





Fed May Be Tapering, But Its Partners In Crime Aren’t

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Lee Adler tells CNBC Africa that the Fed may be tapering, but the key to the US market will now be in the actions of the BoJ and ECB. 

Click this link to try WSE's Professional Edition risk free for 30 days!

Copyright © 2012 The Wall Street Examiner. All Rights Reserved. 





The Intersection Of Church And State – In One Chart And 44 Bubbles

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Curious what the political positions are of the various, and all too numerous some would say, religions and churches in America? This new graph, courtesy of Tobin Grant, maps the ideologies of 44 different religious groups using data comes from Pew’s Religious Landscape survey. This survey included 32,000 respondents. It asked very specific questions on religion that allow us to find out the precise denomination, church, or religion of each person.

Here are the key observations:

  • Churches that are similar religiously are also similar ideologically.
  • Evangelicals are classic conservatives (small role in economy, protect morality). Pentecostals want a larger role for government on economic issues.
  • Presbyterian Church in America, Lutheran Church Missouri Synod, and smaller Methodist churches have historical ties to both evangelicalism and mainline denominations. On the question of government and morality, they are between other evangelical churches and mainline denominations.
  • Mainline churches hold similar economic views as evangelicals but want less government involvement protecting traditional morality.
  • Christians in traditionally black denominations and evangelicals are similar in their views toward morality policy, but there is a large divide on economics.
  • Catholics are large and represent the center on both dimensions.
  • Jews are centrist on the economy. There is a major divide between both Conservative and Orthodox Jews and other streams of Judaism. This divide falls along the morality dimension.
  • The “nones” are united on their ideology toward morality (keep government out!) but there are interesting divides on government services. Atheists want more government services; agnostics favor less governmental involvement in the economy. If you consider Unitarians part of this group, then they’re the most supportive of government services.

Some guidelines on how to read the graph:

  • Each circle represents a denomination, church, or religion. There are several circles for types of Americans with no religion: self-identified “atheist”, self-identified “agnostic”, and those who say that have “no religion in particular”.
  • The size of the circle represents the relative size of the religion in the United States. For very small groups, I put them in groups with other similar churches. In these cases, the circle represents collections of similar churches, e.g., nondenominational evangelicals, all Baptists who aren’t in one of the larger denominations, or all Hindus. The decision for how specific to make the circle was based on the size of


continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

DARK TOWERS by David Enrich

 

In his best-selling book Dark Towers, David Enrich, finance editor at The New York Times, chronicles the complicated history of Deutsche Bank and its entanglement with Donald Trump. Reviewing Dark Towers, Roger Lowenstein writes, 

"Enrich’s most tantalizing nugget is that in the summer of 2016, Jared Kushner’s real estate company (which received lavish financing from Deutsche) was moving money to various Russians. A bank compliance officer filed a “suspicious activity report,” but the report was quashed and she was fired. The suggestion that maybe the money was payback for Russian campaign meddling isn’t one that Enrich can prove. Similarly, we will have to wait to see if Deutsch...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

NYSE Announces Disaster-Recovery Test Due To Virus Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a somewhat shocking sounding move, given administration officials' ongoing effort to calm the public fears over the spread of Covid-19, The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will commence disaster-recovery testing in its Cermak Data Center on March 7 amid coronavirus concern, Fox Business reports in a tweet, citing the exchange.

During this test, NYSE will facilitate electronic Core Open and Closing Auctions as if the 11 Wall Stree...



more from Tyler

Chart School

Dow, Three strikes and your out!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The Dow has topped out with major events, the current virus could be the third strike!

2001 - 9/11 Twin Towers
2007 - Bear Sterns
2020 (?) - C19 Virus


Chart explains all. Dow Jones Industrial's comparing market tops 2000, 2007 and 2020.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.












Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of ...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

Cities With The Most 'New' And Tenured Homeowners

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Homeownership is a major investment. Not just financially, but when a person or family purchases a home, they’re investing years – if not decades – in that particular community. 55places wanted to find out which real estate markets are luring in new homebuyers, and which ones are dominated by owners that haven’t moved in decades. The study analyzed residency data in more than 300 US cities and revealed the top 10 cities with the most tenured homeowners – residents who’ve lived in and owned their home for more than 30 years – are sprinkled across ...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



more from Biotech

The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



more from Tech. Traders

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



more from Bitcoin

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.