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2,000 Tuesday – Will We Hold it on Wednesday?

sept stocksS&P 2,000 – YAY!!!

We did it, congratulations, fantastic, go markets!  OK, now what?  Now we'll see if we can pop 17,160 on the Dow, which is 2.5% below the Must Hold Line on our Big Chart.  We also need to firm up over 11,000 on the NYSE (another Must Hold Line) and then we'll be looking for 1,200 on the Russell and 17,600 on the Dow and THEN we are into the next leg of our rally.  

Until then, we need to be just a little bit cautious.  Fortunately, we already placed our hedges and now we're ready to BUYBUYBUY off our Buy List as well as 10 new bullish trade ideas we'll be discussing in today's Webcast (1pm, EST).  This one is going to be Members only though, as we're picking new positions for our portfolios.  

As you can see from our Big Chart, the Russell is our lagging index and has already been to the promised land over 1,200.  That's why, last Thursday morning in our Live Member Chat Room, we added an aggressive long using TNA, the ultra-long Russell ETF:

With TNA at $73.30 today, the same logic applies and the Sept $72.50/76.50 bull call spread is $2 and the Sept $68 puts can be sold for $2 to offset or maybe the ABB March $24 puts at $2 instead.  As with last month, this isn't a portfolio play for us as we're already very bullish in the portfolios – this is to cover yourself if you think you are too bearish and a pop over the highs will kill you.   

It's only been 3 sessions but TNA has already popped to $75.10 and the Sept $68 puts have already fallen to $1.30 and the spread is now $2.40 for net $110 gained per contract – up infinity from the net zero cash basis!  The ABB puts are a little slower moving at $1.50, but still very nice for a more conservative play.  

I'd take that $110 per contract and run though as it's a nice 3-day profit and pays for our additional bearish hedges – which is all we ever wanted to accomplish.  If we do take out 2,000 and hold it today and if the NYSE does hold 11,000 – we can certainly add another combination like this to give us a fantastic return if TNA is going to head back to the $80s.   For now, though, we're going to watch and wait.  

INDU WEEKLYWe're expecting a nice pop off the Durable Goods Report as Boeing deliveries should give us a good headline.  We're getting housing data at 9 but it's June reports – so actually meaningless but Consumer Confidence at 10 am will be telling – below 90 would be very disappointing.  To that end, we do want to short into a pop, hopefully at Dow 17,100 (/YM Futures) and, of course, /ES 2,000 (S&P Futures).  

8:30 Update:  Durable Goods orders are up 22.6%!!!  That's the headline but, ex-aircraft/transports, they are down 0.8% – as we expected.  That's going to keep us shorting on the Futures and our morning lines (see Live Member Chat – and you can join HERE) were:

We have /YM 17,058, /ES 1,995, /NQ 4,066 and /TF 1,163 and I still like /YM short below 17,050 (same sequence as yesterday) as long as /ES below 1,995, /NQ below 4,065 and /TF below 1,165 but, like yesterday, it's very likely the go for 2,000 again, so just going for quick money.

SPY 5 MINUTEEx-Transport, those durable goods numbers are back to the lows of the year.  The big number is from the recent air show, where BA crushed it in the order department but imagine how BAD the headline number will be next month compared tot his month – let's keep that note on our calendar for the Sept report.  

We're going to wait for those lines to cross, of course, we still may stay up into Consumer Confidence (10am) and that's going to be tricky as gas prices have come down a bit and the market is up, so people might be a bit more confident.  

Also, of course, there is a big push to get the S&P up to that 2,000 line.  We got there on SPY yesterday (see Dave Fry's chart), but the volume is anemic and all the gains came in the Futures, with selling the rest of the day – a real sucker's rally.  

Speaking of suckers, check out this  BAML chart that clearly outlines the march of the bag-holders into equities as Institutional Investors have been running for the exits.  

I know the bulls think the Institutions are wrong and they will come back and cause a massive rally but the Hedge Funds have joined the Institutions in heading for the exits while the Retail Traders have been BUYBUYBUYing for 18 months – taking the S&P up 33%.

Don't worry retail traders – I'm sure you are much smarter than professional investors and the rally will last forever – nothing to worry about at all, please continue to ignore all bad news and have 100% faith that the Fed will fix everything, forever and ever – Hallelujah!  

Faith consists in believing when it is beyond the power of reason to believe. - Voltaire


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  1. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 7:50:39 AM

    Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Hans Redeker, head of global currency strategy at Morgan Stanley, talks about the outlook for the dollar and Swiss franc in light of risk sentiment and Switzerland’s current account surplus.
    He spoke Aug. 22 in London. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Bonds climbed, sending Italian and
    Spanish yields to record lows for a second day, while European
    stocks advanced and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures signaled
    the gauge will extend yesterday’s record-high close. The yen
    ended a six-day decline and gold rebounded.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1p63oSJ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  2. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 7:16:36 AM

    Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, as tensions flare on the two nations’ border.
    The leaders will attend talks today with European Union representatives in Minsk, Belarus, during a summit of the Customs Union, a Russian-led trade bloc. Hans Nichols reports from the Belarus capital on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, as tensions flare on the two nations’ border.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1wtoWm9

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  3. From Bloomberg, Aug 25, 2014, 4:12:23 PM

    An employee works on the nose of a Boeing Co. 777 airplane at the company’s facility in Everett, Washington. Photographer: Mike Kane/Bloomberg

    Boeing Co. (BA) won an order for $8.8
    billion of jets from BOC Aviation Pte as the aircraft lessor
    made its biggest-ever purchase to help meet surging travel
    demand
    in Asia.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ruB3NI

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  4. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 7:07:00 AM

    Mario Draghi is once again testing
    whether words can replace action.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BYeNOH

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  5. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 7:20:27 AM


    A BYD Co. electronic vehicle (EV) is charged at an EV charging station at the company’s campus in the Pingshan, China. Among recent government initiatives, China will exempt new energy vehicles — defined as electric cars, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles — from a purchase tax starting next month, and has ordered government departments to buy such vehicles for their official fleets. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    China is considering providing as much as 100 billion yuan ($16 billion) in government funding to build more charging facilities and spur demand for electric vehicles, according to two people familiar with the matter.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VPeh4f

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  6. From Bloomberg, Aug 25, 2014, 8:38:31 PM


    Bill Ackman, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Pershing Square Capital Management LP. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

    A month after Bill Ackman’s
    disastrous attempt to expose fraudulent behavior by nutrition
    company Herbalife Ltd. (HLF), the billionaire is on his way to one of
    his most profitable years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1p61KR8

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  7. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 12:00:01 AM


    July 24 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama speaks about companies that use cross-border mergers to escape U.S. taxes, his administration’s economic policies and partisanship in Washington.
    Obama speaks at a technical college in Los Angeles. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Two top Republican lawmakers profited from a corporate tax-avoidance maneuver that the U.S. Treasury Department is seeking to curb.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mL12cg

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  8. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 12:00:01 AM


    Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Credit Suisse Vice Chairman of Research Neal Soss discusses the markets and Fed policy on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is raising questions about her own argument that stagnant wages mean the U.S. is far from full employment, armed with research from the Fed Bank of San Francisco that she used to head.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1t88ju5

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  9. From Bloomberg, Aug 25, 2014, 4:10:18 PM

    Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — New-home sales in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in July for the second month as the housing recovery makes only fitful progress. Scarlet Fu reports on “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    The pace of new-home sales fell to the slowest in four months in July, signaling U.S. real estate lacks the vigor to propel faster growth in the economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1p5tzsS

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  10. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 4:25:13 AM


    Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — France needs more reform of the labor market and of its product and services markets, as well as more simplification of economic governance, according to Michala Marcussen, global head of economics at Societe Generale SA in London.
    She is speaking with Mark Barton, Anna Edwards and Manus Cranny on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    French President Francois Hollande’s firing of malcontent minister Arnaud Montebourg risks unleashing the ruling Socialist Party’s chief critic of budget cuts, adding to an austerity backlash stirring across Europe.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pYyHnz

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  11. Repeat of the morning

    yodi 
    August 26th, 2014 at 8:11 am | Permalink Tweet thisIgnore this user

    WLP still can be traded 

    By BCS jan16 @ 11.65 sell jan16 

    yodi 
    August 26th, 2014 at 8:17 am | Permalink Tweet thisIgnore this user

    sorry pressed wrong button sell the jan16 105p for 9.45 for a cost of 2.20 and sell 1/2 Sept 115 for 1.25 

    lower protection to 102.15 looking for a monthly return of 3.3%


  12. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 12:00:23 AM

    A natural gas production site at the Marcellus Shale formation in Camptown, Pennsylvania, Oct.19, 2011. Photographer: Julia Schmalz/Bloomberg

    The first research into the effects of oil and gas development on babies born near wells has found potential health risks. Government officials, industry advocates and the researchers themselves say more studies are needed before drawing conclusions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1t88ju7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  13. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 2:09:17 AM


    Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) — Jason Low, equity strategist at DBS Wealth Management and Private Bank in Singapore, talks about the outlook for Japan and China stocks.
    He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    History is working against Japan’s
    government as it seeks to convince a new generation of investors
    that equities are the best bet for funding retirement.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BX5q1Q

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  14. From Bloomberg, Aug 25, 2014, 7:00:39 PM


    Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — NYU Stern School of Business Dean Peter Henry discusses emerging markets on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Emerging-market stocks advanced amid speculation the European Central Bank is preparing stimulus measures and as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose above 2,000 for the first time.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1p55WR1

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  15. Good morning everyone! A few things:

    1) Today's webinar (at 1pm Eastern) is here: http://bit.ly/PSW082614Webinar

    2) If you're interested in the Las Vegas conference in November, please send me an email at admin(AT)philstockworld.com and let me know.

    Thanks!


  16. Phil- I want to give you a big vote of support for the way you post your world view and allow members to comment as well. Some members seem to be bothered by this, but I want to let you know it is one of the big reasons I love PSW and spend hours each day glued to my computer. What happens around us affects not only world economics, but our personal economies as well. Just ask Shadowfax, myself and anyone else who is or cares for a disabled person. Our fortunes are deeply affected by which party is in power and making the rules. You understand and value people other than yourself, and I believe that when we do take care of those less fortunate, it brings more prosperity and good things back to us in the long run. 

    I post a lot about politics and government on my Facebook page and some of my friends have complained, almost exclusively my Republican friends, and for a while I considered backing off. I started to write an apology and say I would stop, when I realized that it was more than just a way to share my views, it was a catharsis for me. By writing on my Facebook wall how I feel about government and my personal struggles, it allowed me to take the thoughts out of my head and put them out into the world. This has been very freeing to me and has made me much less depressed and worried. It serves almost as psychotherapy for me, just by saying what concerns and bothers me in writing for all to see helps me to not and silently stew about it all. I explained this to everyone who reads my posts and told them that it was more for my peace of mind than for them, and that I wasn't trying to proselytize, but just share my experiences and views, allowing my readers to decide for themselves if any of it made sense. So please know that many of us support you and really appreciate PSW for not only the investing lessons, but your views on all that is happening and how it affects us beyond our own limited self interest. Thank you for ALL that you give to your followers.


  17. ' an inorganic and simply unnatural burger '
    Cramer


  18. Oil Lines

    R3 – 94.87
    R2 – 94.41
    R1 – 93.97
    PP – 93.51
    S1 – 93.07
    S2 – 92.61
    S3 – 92.17


  19. Wow! Will he give the money back though…

    http://qz.com/248934/david-dillon-kroger-major-us-corporate-chieftain-has-the-honesty-to-call-his-own-pay-ludicrous/

    Executive pay in the US has been on an upward trajectory for years now. At an Aspen Ideas festival panel last month, Kroger chairman and longtime CEO David Dillon said something that most corporate chiefs might only utter in private.

    Dillon called his pay package last year ($12,768,695 in total) “ludicrous.”

    “While I don’t really defend that amount, it even seems ludicrous to me, it wasn’t that ludicrous at the time they put it together until the stock price went up,” said Dillon, who stepped down from the CEO post of the Cincinnati supermarket chain at the beginning of this year but remains chairman.

    And on executive pay in general, Dillon said, “I think it’s also gotten a little extreme or a lot extreme.”


  20. Could be an interesting war:

    http://qz.com/255223/amazon-and-google-are-now-going-after-each-others-core-businesses/

    Amazon and Google, having evolved well beyond their respective beginnings as on online bookstore and a web search engine, are now expanding in ways that bring them closer to becoming direct competitors.

    The latest: Amazon is spending $970 million to buy Twitch, a live-streaming site for videogame players that was viewed by more than 55 million unique visitors in July. Twitch is touted by some as “the next YouTube,” and previously was in talks with Google. YouTube, the dominant player (and a division of Google since 2006), already is an estimated $5 billion annual business. With Twitch, Amazon is buying its way into a digital video advertising market in which spending is projected to double over the next four years.

    Amazon also is aggressively building out its advertising technology portfolio. The company is “developing its own software for placing ads online that could leverage its knowledge of millions of web shoppers,” the WSJ reports (paywall). Amazon supposedly has told potential partners that it could start testing a “new placement platform, dubbed Amazon Sponsored Links” this year. Amazon also recently debuted a new service that runs banner ads on other sites, called Amazon CPM Ads. (“CPM” is ad-industry jargon for “cost per thousand” ad impressions—referring to the way that banner ads often are priced and publishers often are paid.)


  21. Phil / Open
    Still game on for /TF 1165 and /ES 1195 once the push is over ?

    Does Cramer always look angry ?



  22. Cramer/wombat

    He shops at JC Penney and Walmart, eats McDonalds, goes to the Dollar Store to get supplies he needs and he's worth in excess of 100mm so yes, he always looks angry.


  23. Will this drive the market higher:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/profit-margins-expand-in-q2-2014-8

    Profit margins continue to get fatter.

    Ever since the financial crisis, corporations have managed to deliver robust profit growth by offsetting the drag of weak sales growth with widening profit margins. These fatter profit margins come from cutting costs, which usually means getting more productivity out of a fewer number of workers.

    Some market watchers have warned that there aren't any more costs to be cut. But during their Q2 earnings announcements and conference calls, corporate America confirmed otherwise.

    "S&P 500 margins expanded to a new historical high of 9.1%," said Goldman Sachs' David Kostin. "Margins exited the 50 bp range between 8.4% and 8.9% for the first time in four years. Trailing four-quarter margins expanded by 17 bp versus 1Q 2014. The Information Technology and Health Care sectors were the largest contributors to index level margin expansion. Margins declined for only one sector, Energy, while Consumer Discretionary margins were unchanged."

    And that's not all. Based on the analysts' forecasts of S&P 500 companies, those profit margins will average 9.3% for the year and then jump to 10.0% in 2015.

    profit margins


  24. Good Morning!


  25. Phil,

    Copykat Cramer is pushing GTAT at 18.5? Why are you not pounding the table too! Well I'm in the 2016 10P thats in the Money, when you called it a month ago…..TEEHEEE!! 


  26. Good morning! 

    First things first, we need to get those first 20 commitments to put the Vegas Seminar on in November.  We can't wait until November to do that.  The sooner people sign up, the nicer job we can do setting everything up.  Last year it was $500 per person and I think the early people ended up paying $350 because our system refunds money from later people to the earlier people – very fair given what we need to get started!  

    All Greg is asking for at the moment is a head count, not cash – PLEASE get back to him if you are interested in going (admin at philstockworld dot com):

    The seminar dates are Nov 9th (Sunday) and 10th (Monday) with live trading all day Monday (6:30 am market open in Vegas).  Most likely it will be at Caesar's again.  

    • Last year we had a dinner on Saturday (optional) at Nobu, where about 40 people had a fantastic meal and a great time, followed by a Poker Tournament, where we put in $50 each and the winners split the prizes – mostly it was hanging out and having fun.  
    • Sunday we had a buffet but I wasn't happy with that, this year I think I want to do Rao's (Italian) or Carmine's on Sunday night.  

    I stayed at the Nobu Hotel, which was FANTASTIC – it's inside Caesar's and super-nice with room service to die for.  It's still warm enough to enjoy the pools in November, so it's a nice weekend getaway regardless.  


  27. ~~craigsa620
    August 26th, 2014 at 8:47 am

    Well said! When you see and feel the hardships you realize how out of touch 995 are.


  28. 99% not 995 capital!! 5


  29. Will TLT top 118? Money flow is out this AM


  30. Mistake it went in the S&P to pop 2000.


  31. You future guys after Phil's I think 10AM /TF, IWM is exceptionally weak.


  32. phil/sqqq – i currently have the sqqq dec 40/50 bcs as a hedge, at this point would you advise rolling the 40 down?  tia!


  33. Interesting – dollar hitting the highs from last August! That's my first resistance area – 82.50/82.60

    By October last year, we were at 79! And the S&P was up another 100 points. Will history repeat itself?


  34. craigsa620 – Bravo!  As I posted last week, the minority seems to get all the attention and it's only because they scream the loudest. We owe our democracy an equal voice to remind all that the Majority Rules!

     

    Yeah, while the majority may be wrong at times, it's this democracy that will eventually show the right paths to take.

     

    Phil is the greatest college professor I never had and it's his lessons both in life and money matters that will keep me a subscriber for years to come….

     

    Remember to Vote in November!  :)


  35. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fracking-birth-defects-probed-early-040023317.html

    Have you ever been near natural gas wells? Fracking or not they leak through the ground around them, air stinks for miles and wildlife suffers. It is surely effecting humans and babies, if noting else in stagnant winter inversions it causes smog.


  36. Support/Craigs – Thanks but I do prefer NOT to discuss politics during the week.  As you may have noticed, I don't tend to get involved unless people post biased nonsense.  I do post my own biased memes once in a while, but only if they seem interesting, nothing wrong with people knowing what is being said out there.  Weekends are the proper time for these discussions but most weekends, I'd rather hang with my family than talk politics or social issues.  Once in a while I do make a post that is deemed political, but only when it's an issue I think is affecting the economy and is too important not to talk about.

    Inorganic/Wombat – That describes a lot of places.  

    Dillon/StJ – Actually, the run-up in his pay was caused by the run-up in his stock price, from $22 in 2012 to $44 last year and now over $50.  The company gained $15Bn in market cap so $12M for him was a 1/1,000th "tip" from the investors.  In 2012 his pay was cut because the stock had a so-so year and then, in 2013, it doubled and his pay went up 50% from the cut level.  I'm no fan of crazy CEO pay but this guy earned his money.  I applaud the guy for being forthcoming about the situation and you do a disservice saying things like "Will he give the money back" as it discourages others from trying to have the kind of honest conversations we need in order to educate people and affect change – much the same way Conservatives like to say "well, if you think taxes should be higher, then why don't you send money to Treasury?"  That's not constructive at all…

    2,000 on the button on /ES – that's an easy shorting line!  1,165 still good on /TF, 17,100 got tapped on /YM and /NQ hit 4,075 and then turned right back down.  /NKD still holding 15,500.  Oil shot up to $94.30 but that should be about it for them.


  37. Phil – We had an interesting discussion about French politics yesterday and as we see a new government being call now I recall a funny anecdote from the past. I am sure you will appreciate the humor:

    Back in 1993, the French Prime Minister was Pierre Beregovoy. Mitterand was the president then but the socialist lost the congress and Beregovoy resigned. Shortly after that he killed himself. During an off-the-record interview, a journalist told Miterrand that there were rumors that he had had Beregovoy killed. Supposedly Miterrand responded calmly that it was not credible because he would not have been the first one he would have had killed! 

    I guess it could have been a good one for the Clintons in the 90's!


  38. Kimberly-Clark Introduces Tubeless Toilet Paper Roll.

    The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (8/26, Barrett) reports that “more than 100 years after a cardboard tube was first inserted into a roll of toilet paper, engineers in Wisconsin have taken the tube out — a move that might sound awkward for consumers, but is aimed at reducing paper waste.” Kimberly-Clark Corp. says “the simple step of skipping the center tube in its Scott Naturals bathroom tissue could eliminate a large chunk of 17 billion such tubes thrown away each year, enough to fill the Empire State Building twice.” The firm says “its engineers and scientists, based in Neenah, developed the tubeless toilet paper roll that’s been test marketed on a limited scale in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and now is being launched, nationwide, largely through Walmart stores.”


  39. Dillon / Phil – Sure, the guy might have earned it more than the average CEO, but he does admit it is ludicrous. I hope that he gets more constructive and talks more about that and goes on CNBC for example.


  40. i haven't watched Cramer in quite a while – I am quite convinced he is clinically unstable.


  41. I find tons of use for toilet paper tubes-guess I'll have to hang on to my stash. Also, MDT is in the news-buying another small drug company. They are still in Mpls-hadn't realized they are based in Ireland which is another stagnant country. .


  42. qcmike tubeless

    It is a marketing move. Reality is the end of the roll becomes a mess and mostly wasted so net is more or less nothing.


  43. /TF continuing to rise- over 1168 now


  44. Phil/Futures- sit and watch kind of day again?  


  45. /TF rise is usually a head fake not that I am predicting 10AM numbers weren't that bad except investor confidence went down.


  46. wombat:  Cramer's in the entertainment business.


  47. phil, morning

    im short 5x gmcr jan 100 calls @ 20.00……that i rolled from 85 before the coke deal, you suggested taking some of the loss and rolling to the 100. 

    with the recent move i was thinking of rolling to 8x jan 125 (-4300) and sell 5 jan 125 (+3750)puts to help pay

    would like your thoughts on this or if you see a better move….tks


  48. Open/Wombat – Hope the above helps.  Waiting, pouncing – Rothstien!   Cramer's not angry, he's just from Jersey, that's how we communicate…  cheeky

    Boehner/Shadow – So sad how that kind of BS is even allowed.  Very simple, make a rule that says you must recuse yourself from voting if you have any interest in the outcome.  That would mean maybe 3 people get to vote – but at least it would be more fair! 

    LOL Rustle – but he LOVES those stores.  

    Margins/StJ – But it's all driven by buybacks and M&A, not growth.  What happens when, if ever, the free money train dries up and we have to measure these guys on their actual business?  I remember in 2007 the "consensus" for earnings going forward was for 10% annual growth – that didn't quite work out.   Now we have Trillions of Dollars being pumped into the Global Economy and they are still projecting 10%.  Let's just hope nothing goes wrong or people are in for a big surprise!  

    Those silly institutional investors who sit on the boards of these companies and employ armies of financial analysts to make their own projections must be crazy to pull out of this market, right?  Thank goodness Henry Blodget has a magazine that shows us how wrong they are and tells us to BUYBUYBUY.  After all, when has he ever steered people wrong?  

    As an analyst with Merrill Lynch, Blodget trashed certain stocks in private internal emails that the company publicly endorsed. In one email Blodget called Excite “such a piece of crap!” while Merrill Lynch gave it a 2 rating in its public assessment, the second-highest rating possible. This malfeasance led the SEC to permanently ban Blodget from the securities industry and charge him $4 million in penalties.

    So where’s a guy to go after his misconduct was considered so great that he was permanently barred from his industry?

    Journalism!

    GTAT/Jasu – I went on TV and called it my Trade of the Month.  Unlike my friendbuddypal Jim, I don't feel the need to pump stocks I pick because I pick stocks that are worth buying and they tend to rise on their own merits.  It bothers me if things I say move the markets – I don't want to have that "lemming effect" that Jim lives for – I don't get off on controlling people.  This was from July 30th:

    Of course, for you guys – you get the advance on everything:

    Submitted on 2014/07/30 at 6:22 am

    Good morning! 

    These are my notes for Money Talk tonight (7pm):

    I don’t have a screen shot but our Trade of the Year (as of 3/6 appearance) was:

    · 10 AAPL 2016 $450 puts sold for $41 (we've been selling that one all year), buying 10 2016 $450/600 bull call spread for $65 for net $24 ($24,000) which makes $126,000 profit at $600 (525%).  Should be up very nicely tomorrow!  

    AAPL had a 7 for 1 stock split in April and that changed this trade to 70 of the 2016 $64.29 short puts which are now $1.29 ($10,150) and 70 of the 64.29/85.71 bull call spreads, which are now net $16.40 ($114,800) for net $104,650 – up 336% and on track to make our full, planned 525% at $126,000.

    At this point though, I’d put a stop on the trade at $100,000 since we started by betting $24,000 and now we have over $100,000 on the table.  No one ever goes broke taking a profit! 

    It’s a bit late to play AAPL bullish as a new entry but we do like GTAT, who makes the Sapphire Glass that is very likely to be used to make future  IPhones.  The stock recently sold off on disappointment that the production run wasn’t large enough to match the launch of the IPhone 6 but patience is likely to be rewarded on this one, much like our LQMT trade idea last year, which went from 0.11 to 0.40.

     

    This is the kind of chart that sends most traders running but we see an opportunity as this is a manufacturing issue and not a product issue.  Just last night we had a miss from GLW (Corning) on lower demand for their Gorilla Glass, which competes with Sapphire. 

    We can set up a similar trade with GTAT to the one we had with AAPL by selling, for example, 20 of the 2016 $10 puts for $2.30 ($4,600) and buying 20 of the 2016 $10/17 bull call spreads at $2.70 ($5,400) for net $800 on a spread with an upside potential of $10,000 (up 1,150%) at $17 or higher.  On the downside, you risk being assigned 2,000 shares of GTAT at net $10.40 per share ($20,800), which is a 24% discount to the current price. 

    TLT/Shadow – People are looking a little nervous but $118 is a lot.  

    SQQQ/Toe – Generally, when the price of the long calls is down to the price you paid, it's time to roll.  The Dec $40s are still $2.05 and the Jan $35s are $4 with SQQQ at $36 so you roll out a month and $5 down in strike for $2 or you can go to the March $35s for another $1 ($5).  Either way, short Dec $50s (0.80) can be rolled to the Oct $42s (0.70) and, if they hit $1.50, you can just roll them back to Jan $50s (now $1) for about even and the Oct $42s have a .21 delta so they don't hit $1.50 without a $3+ move (10%)and the Jan $35s have a delta of .59, so they will gain $1.80 by then.  


  49. Cramer/Wombat/Phil

    I'm still laughing from when Cramer called Lenny Dykstra "not only sophisticated, but one of the great ones in this business".  Not only is he a horrible stock picker but has a shitty eye for talent

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lo77x4VeoQE


  50. rustle

    Sophisticated—-- Cramer definition——— I don't understand it must be great. 


  51. WLP/ Yodi:  Fun playing the  "What Strikes Guessing Game", but which Jan16 Bull Call Spread are you referring to?


  52. SCTY/Phil .. Hi, that great earnings play on Solar City 3 weeks ago has yielded almost 80% of the maximum profit at this stage. I sold the naked Sept $77.50 calls (share was near $76) and covered with Jan 2015 call spread 80/95. Is it time to take the money and run (with the share near $71) or stay a little greedy and wait for the Sept $77.50 calls to hopefully expire at zero in 3/4 weeks? I think I should take the profit …Thanks ..


  53. Jbur WLP  Jan16 95/115 now 12.20


  54. STJ resistance dollar 82.5-6

    It broke once and in the range, think new high?


  55. Jbur set the Sept 1/2 caller to 115 @ 1.50 on WLP


  56. ARIA – I'm finally getting the patience to be assigned short puts and wait for things to play out.  Its only taken me about three for four years!  I think Pharm original posted this ARIA trade, selling Aug $6 puts for around .50, buying August $7 calls for around .55 (something like that.)  The calls expired worthless and I was assigned the shares of ARIA for $6 and the stock was around $5.60.  Now in less than a month the stock is back up to $6.40.  So basically the timing was off, yet with patience the trade is profitable again.  Probably time to sell some calls now that the stock is up.


  57. Wow, Futures are lots of fun if you are quick today!  

    Dollar/StJ – I don't think so because we are being outprinted by Japan and Europe now.  What would you be trading your Dollars in for?  Maybe if gold comes back..

    Speaking of gold, /YG back at $1,285, which is a long line I like (with tight stops below).  Watch Silver at the $19.50 line to confirm (/SI) and I like silver too but it's $50 per penny per contract – a very dangerous metal to trade! 

    Thanks 1020.  If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve…  

    Fracking/Shadow – So obviously bad for the environment that it's almost comical the way they pretend that it isn't – it's like the product lawyer Martin Short used to play.

    LOL StJ, I do like that one.  

    Toilet Paper/QC – Truly we live in an age of wonders!  

    Dillon/StJ – I doubt CNBC would entertain such a discussion.

    Futures/Ricbah – No, I like 17,100 on /YM as a short.  I've got 5 at that line and happy to ride out the bumps if /ES stays under 2,000.  

    GMCR/Mill – Crazy-assed stock.  It's killing us in the $25KP and STP too.  I think splitting it makes sense but make sure you have stops on both sides!  The Jan $100s are $35.50 and the 2016 $115 puts are $14 and the $150 calls are $17 but that's a pretty narrow range for a year, so no better than your plan.  As a more conservative move, you could sell 5 2016 $115 puts for $14 ($7,000), buy 10 2016 $135/160 spreads for $10 ($10,000) for net $3,000 and roll the 5 short  Jan $100s ($17,750) to 10 short March 135s at $14.50 ($14,500) and then you are in a more realistic spread with some protection in case they go higher.  

    Dykstra/Rustle – Did I ever tell you about the time I played craps with that guy?  He's is NUTS!  You could not actually know that guy and think he's a good guy to be handling money…

    And there goes the S&P!  Dow up 20 more to follow, that's a quick $500 down the tubes!   /TF 1,170 and /NQ 4,070 makes it seem real but I'm still pressing here to average 17,110 on 10 and hopefully a chance to get out even.  


  58. Dollar / Shadow – On a daily chart, you need to give it some room… Last August we tapped 82.70! 


  59. Robert Reich yesterday on his blog.  Love the quote – he and Shaq have an average height of 6'1"

    Whenever you hear economists talk about averages, watch your wallet. In an economy becoming ever more unequal, those at the top bring up the average higher than the typical person experiences. (The basketball star Shaquille O’Neal and I have an average height of 6’ 1”.) So take with a grain of salt the government’s recent announcement that per-person disposable personal income has risen over 4 percent since the recovery began in 2009 (adjusted for inflation). The fact is, median family income (that is, the income of the family smack in the middle) is now lower than it was when the recovery started. Five years ago it was $55,589. Now, adjusted for inflation, it’s $53,891.


  60. Phil

    morning

    your commentary is all bearish.

    yet you are coming up with bullish trade ideas?

    instittutions are running for the exits, as you say.

    so, should we not stay bearish with our LTP ?

    thanks


  61. Dkystra/Phil

    My friend and I joke about if Dykstra was our broker in 2008, we'd come home to find him taking copper wiring out of our places.


  62. For the I care type, FWIW

    IWM shot a clear buy signal after 10AM, it has popped 116.4, the next issue is can it hold until 9:25


  63. SCTY/ Phil .. took the easy money .. thanks …. opened similar style play yesterday on GMCR :)


  64. I'm sorry to be the dumb kid in class, but could someone parse the below for me? I found ES is an energy company about 4.14, so is this a recommend to, say, buy puts on ES? And this trade is to be triggered if/when S&P 500 level reaches 2000? 

    2,000 on the button on /ES – that's an easy shorting line!

    I looked up 


  65. That is 11:25 eastern, I am mountain time.


  66. sn0gr00ve /ES

    /ES is the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. If you don’t know that DON’T TRADE IT. You have to start trading futures on a paper account until you have more experience.


  67. I saw a disturbing 60min this last week about how online companies are tracking you're internet usage and integrating it with facebook profiles, google plus, etc.  Here it is if you want to see it:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/shocked-to-learn-how-data-brokers-are-watching-you/

    Anyway, there is a simple fix.  A google engineer wrote a open source browser plugin called Disconnect that you can download for free.  I use it in Chrome.  I also use the Disconnect Search plugin.  

    https://disconnect.me/

    Just trying to spread usable info.


  68. SCTY/STP, DM – Of course, no point in dragging it out when you can't make much more.  It's easy to lose sight of these trades but we had a net $825 credit and now the trade is net $1,000 for an $1,825 profit in a few weeks – why mess around.  While the Sept $77.50 short calls are still 0.90 ($450), the long spread is net $2.90 ($1,450) and out of the money so figure 4 months will lose $375 while you wait to collect the last $450 on the short calls so your best case is a net $75 gain over 24 days – not worth tying up the cash and margin you can take off the table.  That makes this an official kill order for the STP on the SCTY trade.  

    ARIA/Rev – Next step is to sell puts and leave yourself room to scale in because now you could sell the 2016 $7s for $2 and the $4.50 puts for $1.20 and that drops your net to $3.25/3.88 and if you get called away at $7 in 2016, you have a double and, if not, you have 2x at $3.88, 40% below your original target.  These trades are much more powerful when you work them over the long haul.  Step one (which you did) is giving yourself a cheap entry, steps 2 and 3 are working into a fuller position at a bigger and bigger discount OR getting called away with a nice profit.  

    Good point by Reich Rev. 

    Bearish/Maya – While I feel the economic conditions are weak and we are in for a short-term correction – I'm also not going to fight the Fed and we need to have long-term bullish trades as well as short-term hedges.  If I were REALLY bearish – we'd have a Long Put List – I haven't put one of those up in a long, long time.  In the LTP, we remain CAUTIOUS but it's a bullish portfolio that's 2/3 cash.  At the moment, the LTP is up 21.6% ($608K) while the STP is up 30.8% ($131K) for $739K and we are watching the $735K line at the moment, where we'd become concerned that our mix is wrong.   We'll discuss it in today's webcast.  

    Dykstra/Rustle – Sad what happened to him but it was his own doing.  

    GMCR/DM – That one is killing me.  

    ES/Sn0 – No, that's /ES, the S&P Futures that we're playing with.  Very dangerous stuff.  If you have to ask, you are a couple of years away from where you should consider playing.  

    BBY a bit too close to the sun, it seems:

    Disconnect/Burr – I've given up on the notion that I have any privacy.  My kids have no expectation of it – I don't even think an experience is real to them until it's shared with their friends on-line.  Will be very interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 10-20 years. 


  69. It's really tough to figure out what these numbers lead to:

    Consumer confidence – 92.4 (89.0 expected, last month 90.3)
    Richmond Fed Mftg Index – 12 (6 expected, last month 7)

    It does look like that Dallas Fed was an outlier yesterday as the other Fed zones are coming in stronger than expected. Lower oil prices probably at play there. Kansas City reports on Thursday.


  70. Burrben Phil

    Yodi was ridiculed for not using FB last weekend because it infected others, I also refuse social media because FB alone is solicited on every click, obviously they know I never signed up and because of that I never will. I for one will try the block on my laptop first. It is now close to imposable to search information because if you want for example to find out about GM recalls they send you to dealers to buy a new gas hog truck, I live in a rural and must only want a truck with 4 doors and a big V8.


  71. Phil,

    are they going for 1200 on /ES? just a slow grind higher today!


  72. Thanks for the avalanche danger warnings on futures,  I understand how highly leveraged that type of product is and am happy to sit and watch OOTM options decay. I am trying to use the knowledge of strategic trades here in a simplified way. 


  73. jasu1

    IWM made it 20 minutes now looking at 50 but it might be break away and it might be for suckers only.


  74. Phil/XRT

    89!

    thanks and always


  75. Privacy – I don't mind the Facebook or Google or Yahoo lack of privacy so much as we're not 'users' or 'customers', we're the merchandise. However, what honked me off was when we filed plans for an addition to our house, in short order we were getting spam phone calls from contractors and contractor boiler rooms. Clearly either these guys were looking at new plan filings or the county is selling my info. The latter would really irritate me if true.


  76. Bkw going down, THI way up. I think this whole market is for suckers-all the valuations are in nosebleed territory. I patiently wait for the "correction" which look like it won't ever get here! I'm rolling everything down & out-no choice.


  77. snow

    Forever contractors got building permit lists, I did. If they were only local contractors it would be as usual, but boiler rooms etc.is a sell out.


  78. Dallas Fed was very concentrated on E&P, which had a bad month.  US Economy is generally picking up – that's not what I'm worried about.  The rest of the World has severe problems!   Consumer Confidence also boosted by lower fuel prices and food came down a bit (corn is 4/$1 now) and that makes people happy – let them eat corn and all that…

    Richmond is in DC, best growing place in America.  Data is useless when you look at one bit or the other, that's why I like the Beige Books – nice big, picture.  

    Now JPM saying ECB will ease next week – no wonder we're popping!  Nice timing by them into the EU close – BRILLIANT!  

    1,200/Jasu – That's /TF you mean?  It's already there (2,004) and if they hold it and the NYSE holds 11,000, then we can expect RUT (/TF) 1,200 and Dow (/YM) 17,600 in due course and we can place our bets accordingly.  

    Futures/Sn0 – About half of our weekly Webinars discuss the Futures.  I would suggest a paper trading account in TOS to play along and learn we'll make you an expert in no time.  Well, we'll make you an expert in 10,000 hours, anyway…

    Pfew – Dow finally giving me my exit after racking up 15 shorts on /YM!  

    XRT/Pat – Again, wow!  XRT Oct $88 puts at $1.50 – 5 in the $25KP.  In STP, let's pick up 20 of the XRT Oct $93/88 bear puts spreads at $3.25 and those have $1.75 of upside (53%) but it's a 53% I feel good about!  

    Info/Snow – It's public data when you file it, there are people who are paid to hang out at the county halls of records and make lists of all those filings so people can annoy you.  The counties used to try to protect people's privacy but the laws went against them.  

    BKW/Pirate – That was my logic yesterday.  

    August 25th, 2014 at 12:34 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    BKW/Pfeh – $10Bn for THI?  They were  $5Bn last year, what have the done to earn another $5Bn in value?  I guess it's all about the tax inversion for BKW but they will get such backlash for this that I doubt it will go through so I'd lean towards shorting THI initially but BKW popped 20% today as well so, couple that with the overpaying and the fact the deal is likely to fail and that means we can sell 5 BKW Jan $30 calls for $3.25 ($1,625) and buy 4 April $30/34 bull call spreads for $2 ($800) for an $800 credit per set.  BKW is at $32.50 now, up from $27 yesterday so it would take another $5 pop before you get in real trouble on the trade.  


  79. snow another

    Permits mostly listed principles like the general contractor which is already established, I only contacted the general for sub work.


  80. Phil/Greg,

    I assume/hope a replay link of today's upcoming 1;00 webinar will be posted later.

    Last minute stuff changed my plans to tune in.

    Thanks


  81. FCX--Phil recommended it as an anti-inflation play several years ago, I am wondering if it is still considered a "forever" stock. What I've read about copper is that there's no real substitute, aluminum doesn't quite cut it, silver too expensive, every new car has 100 lbs or more of copper in it, and the "moat" around starting a copper mining comany huge. I've done OK selling puts on themas I don't mind getting the stock and selling covered calls, get called, rinse and repeat. Ideas? 


  82. Phil snow permits

    The county sent me a list regularly but usually the owner name was blocked unless owner builder since the 90s many states, all mountain west.


  83. /CL cratering…


  84. Replay/8800 – Sure, it takes a day but there should be a replay video.  I think Greg is working on an archive section and he'd really appreciate it if anyone happens to have tags for the videos to share or a summary we can attach.  

    FCX/Sn0 – We're long-term fans of them.  They're on the Buy List from our 5/28 pick:

    FCX (5/28) is right at the 200 dma at $33.75 and the 50 dma is going to move above the 200, which is very bullish if they hold $33.50 (and notice the nice bounce today).  

    Long-term, people do use copper, so I like selling the 2016 $30 puts for $3.20 for a net $26.90 entry, which is 20% off the current price.  To me, that's just free money, since I'm happy to own FCX at $30.  So it makes a nice, bullish offset to a hedge.  If you want to be more aggressive, you can add the $30/37 bull call spread at $3.15, that has 122% of upside if FCX moves up just 10% by itself but, combined with the short puts, you net a .05 credit and make $7.05 (14,100% on cash) if FCX is at $37 in Jan 2016. 

    It's another one I pound the table on whenever they are cheap and, since they are cyclical, they always get cheap if you are patient.  I do not consider $36.50 cheap and, with the VIX this low, the short puts aren't too attractive at the moment, so I'd put them on a list (like the Buy List!) and keep an eye on them.  

    The point of a Buy List, whether mine or yours, is to have 20 stocks you get to know VERY WELL over a long period of time so that, when they do go on sale, you both recognize it as such and you are mentally prepared to make a commitment.  When FCX, for example, goes below $30, we KNOW we want to own it long-term at that price.  That allows us to jump in and BUYBUYBUY when they have a dip, as they did in May. 

    Wheeee on oil – back to $93.40.  What a joke that thing is!  

     

    Webinar starts in 50 minutes – Members Only, we're going to review and add more stocks to the Buy List!  


  85. August 26th, 2014 at 9:47 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Oil shot up to $94.30 but that should be about it for them.

    See, we get a few good trade ideas in once in a while…  wink


  86. Phil any thoughts on GILD and USO?


  87. GILD/Abseth – Those two aren't exactly a pair trade, are they?  Big summary of GILD the other day but that one is not one I would chase at this point.  As to USO, could go up or down $5 on oil very easily from this spot – I'm not inclined to bet without more data.  We have an inventory report tomorrow and I think it's more likely it sends us lower than higher but then this is a holiday weekend and there are Billions on the line in favor of keeping prices up into the weekend – not a good environment to make bets in. 


  88. By the way, if your stock isn't breaking out on an all-time high in the S&P 500 – when will it?  


  89. I was just wondering where one goes to see the webinar ?


  90. 8800 / Replay - Yep.. replay will be up tomorrow. (Webex tells me it could take up to 24 hours before the recording is ready.) Once I get the link I'll post it here (and tweet about it too. Follow Phil @philstockworld and me @GregPSW). 

    I'll also be posting it to our YouTube channel (and I'm building an archive page here on PSW that will have all the webinar replays listed too. 

    Triboy2 / Webinar – I post the link on the morning of the webinar (the regular webinars are on Tuesdays) here in member chat. You can sign up for today's, here: http://bit.ly/PSW082614Webinar


  91. Snow- permits are public records and available to anyone to see if interested. Back in the mid-80's when I was selling building materials I subscribed to a service which provided such data. I used to get hundreds per week for my territory (greater Chicago). A decent source of leads if used judiciously.


  92. Is there a way to join webinar using mobile device on web ex app with a meet number?


  93. The webinar link won't work on my iPad anymore, but if you give us the meeting number I could join. I wanted to see this today.


  94. snow

    Seems as public records could always access at lest to 1980(pastas). I never heard of a service, in the 80s I either worked for someone or found more than I could deal with word of mouth. In 95 I moved to supper red problem area and had to find every lead, all I did was pay postage. Funny thing those permits were about the same as cold calls out of the phone book, I did better stopping by construction sites or when building people would look for you on site. Just don't answer unless they make a physical effort, those people are showing they are worth some time. One more even funnier thing was even unemployed not only would the Mormons not ask for a job with me, when I offered they looked shocked and refused, I offered $15 to $25 per hour to start not minimum wage, no experience preferred so I didn't have to undo wrong way.


  95. All time high / Phil – If we had a broad based rally, yes. But that's not the case. I looked at all the stocks in our buy list (about 30 of them you posted a while back) and almost none of them are on an all time high and some not even close… Commodities stocks, home builders for example are still depressed. Even favorites like TASR and IRBT are at least 20% off their highs. If you invest in momentum stocks, sure, but if you invest in undervalued businesses, you will rarely make highs with the market. On the other hand, you might have a better chance of weathering a corrections. It's all in the beta…


  96. Permits/all – I found it annoying because those calls continued for some time, after construction was well done. I also found it annoying because, as the permits made clear, I had selected a contractor with whom I was working, so why are they calling me? As you say, Shadow, cold-calling like that doesn't seem worthwhile, but it happens so much it must work to some extent. The boiler rooms were especially entertaining, as they'd hire these guys with bass voices and western drawls, maybe between stints for truck commercial voice-overs.


  97. Since all are webinaring addition funny.

    When on crutches, I got 3 helpers to hang sheet rock, one experienced. I gave up in one day, never again.

    2 complained how heavy the 12ft. sheets were and that experienced guy keep screwing, even after repeated telling him to stop, finally I fired him and said get out now. He would not put the screw is straight, tappers, I loved doing that because I could make over $100 per hour call them "clickers" when you drag the blade over them. Not only do you have to take them out and redo, you have a hole to fix and quickly the tool is junk. Spent the next day by myself re-screwing. The next 3 contractors refused to finish the job. Actually I quit saying I just couldn't do anything anymore, I heard it was finished the next year.


  98. snow

    2 weeks ago a guy called twice saying I won publishers clearing house, after the second I checked on line, PCH always goes out with their house call squad with cameras rolling. Those guys calling, many were just scammers, I only called the listed contractor and those that turned zero never again. Even self builders never, they don't want anyone, they are pestered all day with walk ups.


  99. This reminiscing just pounds home the lazy people BS, people want, need, and continuously pursue employment, even those called discouraged, they just stop looking for what will never work out.


  100. These are not good numbers:

    Net Worth

    Trickling up….


  101. stjean

    I know people  in that 1st quintile, those with any credit are over $10K in debt and that doesn't include hose or car loans.


  102. Some good advice:

    http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/08/25/playing-the-long-investment-game?page_all=1

    The distractions to solid long-term thinking are everywhere: newspapers, 24/7 cable news, unending amounts of online financial information, opinion and discussion. Investors have access to everything and anything they would ever want to know, except perspective.

    The good news is that successful long-term investing (except for Warren Buffett and a handful of other elite investors) is much more a function of reducing our mistakes than it is coming up with brilliant strategic insights. In order to reduce mistakes we have to reframe our perspective from rationalizing them (a normal but unproductive response) to looking at them more clinically. Why did we make the mistake and how can we avoid repeating it? Little by little, mistake by mistake, we can slowly start to get out of our own way. After a while this practice becomes second nature and we can begin to access the substantial research on other investors’ mistakes and so avoid errors we haven't even made yet.

    Not only will we become better investors, the simple practice of persistently looking for mistakes naturally changes our mindset from short-term to long-term: a significant, but perhaps unexpected example of how an “event of magnitude” can arise from small effects.


  103. Debt / Shadow – I guess the trickling down has not reached them so far!


  104. ARIA / Rev – I sold lots of puts on that one for years when it was over 20, and had I not had a protective layer of puts underneath when it suddenly dropped to 2.20 I would have been wiped out.  So my advice is when you sell a put on a bio, even a good one like SGEN, you buy some lower puts to limit your downside.  For example if I was selling the ARIA 4.50's I would buy an equal amount of 3's for a bottom stop.


  105. phil

    tks for your thoughts…….ever since the tsla fiasco …i find myself scaling in vs the doubling …….not sure but can always sell a couple of more if it goes against…..

    i also find myself trying to get out of a losing trade sooner rather than later i.e. trying to go for the jan 5 vs the jan 6 …im not sure if its just me or anyone else feels the same way….kind of hate being on the hook for another year or can just roll out…….even though the prems are better……just some thoughts as i try to fill the roll……….and tks again……still grappling with the hours/learning…………


  106. Sold a wad of Euros when it hit 1.32 today on the forex boards [FXE ETF is "1.30", moves in synch  with Euro but always has a discount of 2 points for whatever ETF reason].  After Draghi's "we'll do anything" speech the other day, I thought it would immediately dive below 1.30, yet it went up –  now falling, coining money, next stop 1.20-something, I reckon.   Not getting any better over there, forget "green shoots" for at least the medium term.


  107. stjean

    You must have missed my "have credit" I know people without even a bank account, some bared forever because they bounced checks. One actually went to jail for it. The top would change if they actually knew what they were doing instead of that lazy bastards! They are in what I call(THE BUBBLE)


  108. Euro / Zero – Looks like dry shoots right now… 


  109. News IWM shows sell and TLT turned up.


  110. This is some amazing stuff.  There's a group of students that are starting development of a nail polish that will detect date rape drugs.

    http://www.dailytech.com/Nail+Polish+May+Soon+be+Able+to+Detect+Date+Rape+Drugs/article36451.htm


  111. Sorry all who wanted the meeting number… I saw your requests too late. 

    I will include them with the links when I post them from now on.


  112. Who pays the corporate taxes – you do:

    http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/08/who-pays-corporate-taxes-possibly-you/

    This makes intuitive sense. If a country allows free capital flows and free trade and has a corporate tax rate much higher than that of its neighbors, investors can choose to buy shares in companies elsewhere that face a lower tax, and corporate management can choose to move operations abroad. Consumers, meanwhile, can buy from foreign suppliers. By comparison, workers are pretty immobile. It’s hard for them to switch employers, let alone countries. So the tax lands on them, in the form of lower wages and/or skimpier benefits. And as those at the top of today’s corporate hierarchies seem to have done a pretty great job of keeping their paychecks from being adversely affected, the impact is presumably greatest on those farther down in the organization. [...]

    Most public discussions of corporate taxes in the U.S., however, still ignore the possibility that workers might actually be the ones bearing the burden. Perhaps this is because other public figures really want to avoid sounding like Mitt Romney. Perhaps tax incidence is just too difficult a concept for non-economists to get their heads around (although I’m not an economist and it seems pretty straightforward to me). Perhaps it’s that the evidence is still so mixed (although that hasn’t stopped economic arguments with far less empirical and theoretical backup from gaining currency in the political arena). Perhaps it’s that the corporate executives who lobby for lower tax rates don’t quite have the chutzpah to argue that this could result in higher wages. Or perhaps it’s just that, if corporations pay lower taxes, individuals have to pick up the slack. And even if you understand tax incidence perfectly well, a direct tax is still more noticeable than an indirect one.


  113. An analysis of Draghi's ad-lib deviation from his prepared speech at Jackson Hole:

    http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/08/an-interesting-ad-lib-from-ecb-head-mario-draghis-jackson-hole-speech-morning-comment.html

    Is this deviation an audience effect--Draghi seeking to give a speech pleasing to his West Side (of the North Atlantic) audience and thus unimportant, since he will revert to the East Side message assuming his plane avoids Bárðarbunga? Or does it signal a recognition on Draghi's part that the Eurozone is heading for a triple dip, and that if he doesn't assemble a coalition to do much more very quickly to boost aggregate demand we will have to change the name "The Great Recession" to something including the D-word, and he will go down in history as the worst central banker since the 1930s?


  114. STJ lobbyist's

    As far as I know there are zero on the tax fairness side unless you think corporate taxes are too high.

    It could change if a few more rich would stop helping Africa and spend the next 2 months telling the people who to throw out for their own good, I don't hear one word concerning that but it could work. Like Phil said the democrats are too nice not saying a bad word about anyone.


  115. BTW Spend it in the small red states, more bang for your buck and all states have but 2 senators each.


  116. tough luck 1%ers

    Other than this blog because the mud finally dried a bit, since 7 AM picked spinach, beans and the spendy type lettuce. Then wash the mud off, spin dry, and bag. My back and neck are killing me but spinach omelet was delicious and it will feed us 2 weeks. Bad part I have picked half the spinach if that bet there is 2 or 3 more 5 gallon buckets left and a gazillion beans about 2 or 3 days out. So there you toooooooo lazy to plant a garden types, buy that store crap with your big bucks and I will pay the taxes that you don't. 


  117. Were you able to use your IPad Craigs?

    Highs/StJ – I don't need silly 2007 or 1999 highs but year highs would be nice.  

    Poor/StJ – Holy crap!  That chart really sums it up.  Too bad they lump the top 1% and top 10% in the 5th Q or you'd see how shocking it really is.  

    GMCR/Mill – Or you could just stop playing the Momos.  Our biggest losses in the STP this year (and $25KP) are the MoMos – other stuff works great consistently.  As noted by StJ's quote – just learn from past mistakes and don't repeat them.  Very hard to predict anything reliably on stocks that jump up and down 10% on random days and 20% on earnings.  

    Polish/JPH – That's a fantastic idea!  

    Who pays Corporate Taxes/StJ – Perhaps that's why people who went without heating in Ireland jumped from 6% in 2007 to 12.9% in 2012 – another gift of low corporate taxes trickling down to the people.  Poverty also doubled, from 4.2% to 7.7%.  It's a great system though, a nice way for the top 1% to eliminate potential competition – just like they teach us at B-School!  

    D-Word/StJ – Not good to see that thrown around.  


  118. LOL – Oil $94 again.  Gasoline $2.76, Nat Gas $3.92.  Dollar still 82.66.  


  119. Nice breakdowns now, 1,175 failed on /TF, 2,000 on /ES, 17,100 on /YM and 4,075 on /NQ so game on for the short side! 


  120. I'm off /TF shorts at 1,173, was a nice dip, especially as I was almost burned the other way.  


  121. Worried about another push up into the close.  


  122. StJ:  My fave of the day: "…Yesterday, the French government resigned and the CAC 40 jumped more than 2% while French bond yields made new lows. Clearly, the market was unfazed. Perhaps it was even cheering the departure of economy minister Arnaud Montebourg, who sits somewhere to the left of the fish fork…"


  123. Another 401k question…

    I'm trying to decide between TRSSX (small cap growth, R2K based but weighted towards growth companies, yields 0.1% with 0.68% expense) and a fund that is supposed to approximate the R2K which, if you use IWM as a proxy, would yield 1.27% with an expense ratio of 0.05%.  Based on my investing goals for my 401k, I like the idea of growth investing but the combination of the expense ratio and yield might outweigh the benefits of the possible extra capital appreciation.


  124. Peter,

    I think I may have missed your September SPX straddle. Can you post again pls and thx.


  125. Oh, and to be more clear, I'm not implying IWM has an expense ratio of 0.05%, the actual fund I have available to invest in has an expense ratio of 0.05%


  126. France / Zero – I don't know, the markets in Europe all jumped up about the same on the lack of worsening in Ukraine. I guess the market were in fact unfazed! At this point, I am not even sure there is a good correlation between who in charge of a government and the markets – see the US where a "Communist" (or community organizer, can't tell the difference) has been in power for 6 years and the markets are up 200% while they were down when a free market guy was in charge. The facts are that corporations are effectively in charge now… They are people after all.


  127. Montebourg/ZZ – Yes, because, as the Bush Administration proved – once you steamroll over the liberal opposition, then your economic policies can really do some damage!  

    TRSSX/JPH – It seems to track the RUT well enough, if that's your goal. I'm just not certain this is the best time to be plowing money into these things – unless you are just starting a drip, then it's OK.


  128. I wish I could give the extra vegetables to the super nice PSW people but no one is near but I assure you I know a family that has no car that needs them more so that is final.

    My 1%ers cut wasn't towards the generous PSW whater you are % but in response to Stjean's posts on poverty and tax deferral.


  129. Stj:  Corporations are "people" only in the sense that cyborgs are people.  Like cyborgs, they are mostly machines and don't die, which makes their interests and time horizons rather different than our own.


  130. 401k / Phil – My 401k isn't in options land and I'm only putting a few hundred bucks every other week into it and I won't be touching the funds for 4 decades.  I'm not too concerned with day to day but I certainly am concerned with the very very very long horizon where yield and expense ratios make a big difference!


  131. 401K/JPH – That's fine then, though I'd keep the small cap allocation smallish.  Dividend paying blue-chips shoudl be the meat of your portfolio. 

    Another day, another fail to hold 2,000.  This is getting interesting.  


  132. Phil/ARIA (from this AM)  Good idea!  I went to the beach and came back and sold puts and calls.  That's what I like about only trading long term positions.  No rush!


  133. Oh, sorry, we're only failing in the Futures (/ES), the Index is at 2,000.50 – looks like it will be mission accomplished for the headline (like Durable Goods).  


  134. jph1121

    When I was too busy I did the mutual funds and cost is important but over the very very very long run I found you need to invest in funds that allow free transfers between funds and a broker that will not get pissed that your switching makes no money for him. I di American funds until the broker said no more but it took very little to see the up funds and as Phil says fine a fresh horse in another sector, I went into different bond funds when nothing looked cheap


  135. Well that /tf short was a hard way to make $60 bucks, but a short win is a win indeed!


  136. I see SPY volume 38 million, is that right? 


  137. Good job Rev!  

    $60/Rdn – I had 5… 

    SPY/Jeff – Wow, you are right, YHOO says 40M at the moment.  Still, they are behind and could add up to 20M on close – which is still ridiculously light.  

    CNBC baffled by "muted" reaction to 2,000.


  138. jeff IWM had one volume indication today, last 3 minutes, 2.7 mil.


  139. Volume / Phil – Looking at a monthly chart of the S&P, it looks like we are back to the type of volume we saw back before the crisis:

    Looks like volume ramped up as we got closer to the big recession and then jumped as we crashed. They have then gone down to levels that were normal before the crash. I wonder if the high volumes seen between 2009 and 2011 were more the anomaly… Who knows.


  140. But now a 2 or 5 day up channel and still sell now about Friday or Tuesday.

    We must remember These big players make the markets move when they are ready, the direction they want, and take the most money.


  141. STJ

    I notice the MCD is twice as high.


  142. MACD / Shadow – I guess the 26 EMA is much lower as compared to the 12 EMA than back in 2008. The MACD was around these levels back in 99 and 2000! Obviously not the best reference.

    But surely a reversal toward the averages is a normal thing long term – either the averages have to go higher or the markets will go lower.


  143. shadow-Be grateful you got your spinach. We went out to pick ours & deer had jumped the 6 foot fence & ate all of it along with the beans, cabbage etc. I'm amazed that they like all the vegies we love. Have been eating most of my sunflowers too which is very unusual.


  144. Comcast is the worst… And they want to merge with TWC to make it even worse I guess. Free market they say – hahahahahaha…

    http://arstechnica.com/business/2014/08/comcast-allegedly-trying-to-block-centurylink-from-entering-its-territory/

    “Comcast has been uniquely and extraordinarily aggressive in seeking to delay CenturyLink’s entry into new markets,” CenturyLink told the FCC. “For example, in the Denver metropolitan area, where CenturyLink is currently pursuing local video franchises, Comcast appears to be sending a similar letter to each local franchising authority from which CenturyLink is seeking a franchise or potentially might be seeking a franchise providing Comcast’s ‘concerns’ regarding CenturyLink’s entry into the video market. The ‘concerns’ that Comcast has raised, while couched in terms of ‘fair competition,’ are in reality an effort to have the LFA [local franchising authority] impose such onerous and unreasonable buildout requirements that the new entrant will not be able to obtain a franchise agreement that will support a feasible business plan.”


  145. And there goes /tf back up after hours.  Somebody is really taking that Draghi speech seriously, because if the EU does ease in addition to our remaining QE, all that liquidity will end up with the Russell outperforming for a while.


  146. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 4:34:11 PM

    U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to close above 2,000 for the first time, as reports showed the biggest ever jump in durable-goods orders and an unexpected increase in consumer confidence.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ltpJPp

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  147. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 2:49:59 PM

    People take pictures of Pope Francis with cameras, mobile phones and tablets on May 3, 2014 at the Vatican. Photograpehr: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images

    Apple Inc.’s suppliers are preparing to manufacture the company’s largest-ever iPad, with production scheduled to commence by the first quarter of next year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VMd8uq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  148. From Bloomberg, Aug 25, 2014, 8:57:35 PM


    Customers raise their hands during a countdown at the launch of the Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. PlayStation 4 (PS4) video game console at the Sony showroom in Tokyo. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    You may be surprised to learn that people post videos online of themselves playing video games. You may be even more surprised to learn people actually watch these videos, and Amazon.com is paying $970 million for Twitch, the website that hosts them.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1om2dhP

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  149. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 11:50:48 AM


    Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., discusses Heinz ketchup bottles bearing his likeness as he tours the exhibition floor flanked by security prior to the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, on May 3, 2014. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is providing $3 billion of financing for Burger King Worldwide Inc.’s planned takeover of Tim Hortons Inc. and will earn 9 percent annual interest on the investment.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/YWbtob

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  150. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 2:38:17 PM

    Photograph: Getty Images

    The Knee Defender, a gadget that blocks airplane seats from reclining, got a global boost after a scuffle between two passengers forced a United Airlines jet to make an unscheduled landing.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qqtkxv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  151. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 4:29:29 PM


    Best Buy reported today that same-store sales in the U.S. declined 2 percent, in line with the rest of the industry. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Best Buy Co. (BBY)’s message to investors
    is simple: Don’t get too excited about the next iPhone.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BYfZS7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  152. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 11:52:25 AM

    View of a glacier in front of Brazil’s Comandante Ferraz base, in Antarctica on March 10, 2014. Photographer: Vanderlei Almeida/AFP/Getty Images

    Humans risk causing irreversible and widespread damage to the planet unless there’s faster action to limit the fossil fuel emissions that cause climate change, according to a leaked draft United Nations report.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BZ1D44

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  153. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 5:24:13 PM


    Palestinian residents inspect the remains of a building that was destroyed by an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, on August 26, 2014. Photographer: Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images

    Israel and Hamas said they accepted an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire plan to end a seven-week conflict in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 2,100 Palestinians and about 70 Israelis.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BZ4rOt

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  154. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 9:11:21 AM


    Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — James Grosfeld, former chief executive officer of homebuilder Pulte Holmes talks about the outlook for the U.S. housing market.
    Grosfeld speaks with Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at a slower pace in the year ended in June as declining affordability and weak wage gains kept appreciation in check.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BYubux

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  155. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 12:35:14 PM

    Russia cut its forecasts for
    economic growth and consumer spending, leaving the ministries of
    finance and economy at loggerheads over using fiscal stimulus to
    counter risks from the crisis over Ukraine.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VM409k

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  156. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 1:43:18 PM

    Lower prices for corn and soybeans
    will drive the profits of U.S. farmers down to an estimated
    $113.2 billion in 2014, a decline of 14 percent from last year’s
    record, according to the Department of Agriculture.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VM1OyG

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  157. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 1:46:37 PM

    Student loans are the next great subprime crisis! At least that’s what the usual purveyors of doom and gloom say (see this, this and this). The numbers are big, the default rates are high and soon enough this is going to tip the economy into the next crisis or recession.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1luetCk

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  158. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 12:26:32 PM

    A drought in the south of Spain, which produces half of the world’s olive oil, combined with a bumper harvest last year that sapped the vigor of trees threatens to reduce this year’s crop by as much as 40 percent, the Guardian newspaper reported.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1rxCxXw

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  159. From Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2014, 4:55:32 PM


    RadioShack Corp. Chief Executive Officer Joe Magnacca has been remodeling stores and revamping RadioShack’s product lineup in a bid to shed its reputation as a throwback to 1980s shopping malls. Source: RadioShack via Bloomberg

    RadioShack Corp. (RSH) is talking with shareholder Standard General LP about getting a rescue financing package that could help the retailer stave off a bankruptcy filing, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VM1mjN

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  160. Phil- I was not able to use my Ipad with the link that Greg provided. I had been able to use it previously and was really disappointed that I couldn't today. I had set myself up in a nice quiet spot where my son was occupied and I could concentrate and I kept getting a message that the Webex meeting I was trying to access was not set up for mobile devices and I needed to use a computer. If I had the meeting number I think I could have used the Webex app, but that was never posted and Greg apologized for not seeing those messages until much later. 


  161. stjeanluc / VXX / UVXY

    What do you think about buying UVXY puts? It decays much faster than VXX. In the last 12 months VXX decayed 55% while UVXY fell 85%.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VXX&compare=UVXY&id=p56099077780

    Have you thought about selling calls to pay for the puts in VXX?


  162. Phil / Privacy

    I agree in general with you, but there is still no reason you should allow for-profit companies to track and use your internet habits to build a marketing profile that they sell.  Especially when it's so easy to prevent.

    With the hacking that goes on these days, if someone got a hold of my browser history, they would know my banks, my brokers, my main email address, my interests, where I shop for my business, etc.  

    With a simple plugin, you can at least take a small step toward making it a little harder.


  163. I really wanted to see the new buy recommendations and hear what you had to say. Do we have to wait for the replay or will you be posting any of your recommendations from today's webinar?


  164. Phil- Re:the graphic you posted earlier about poverty hindering a child's educational development. I am sure guys like Prof would say "well the world needs ditch diggers too"! They just don't get how much better off we all are when we help people out of these situations and perhaps the next Einstein would be lost because he can't get started on the path to higher learning.


  165. UVXY / Akademia – Thanks for the tip. That looks really interesting. I'll have to look into that as well. I had checked UVXY when I started but they didn't have LEAPS then so I stuck to VXX.  Now they have LEAPS so very promising for sure… They seem to reset it every 6 months although the reset point seems to get higher each time so you need to account for that. 

    As far as selling calls, we had discussed that at one point and the problem was that you could really get buried quickly on a big spike and I don't think that it was worth the risk. I guess you could roll your way eventually, but too much stress for me. Palotay has been working on actually selling lower puts and buying them back in spikes. Not a bad idea and the worst that could happen if you get stuck with the puts is you limit your potential max gain. But the way I look at it is that without doing anything, I will make close to 100% over 2 years if history repeats itself. Why should I work harder than that and be greedy and take on more risk. 100% every 2 years works very well for me.

    Good research on your side though. Thanks!



  166. ~~pirateinvestor

    Last year the deer ate everything but squash, worse than that the moles ate 90% of the potatoes. This year every mole hole got poison, I just got sick of feeding animals and getting nothing trying to be whatever.

    This morning deer trampled through the garden but I also in the middle put rotten stinky grain which they didn't like last winter. It smells bad out there but both worked. I am glad I got out there today and hope they give me till tomorrow to get that spinach and a little swish chard. Moles are not in the potatoes although my yard is dangerous to ankles.

    You have no idea how bad I feel for you, last year was so bad Arlyn spent 2 months talking me into the poison and grain and try again. I now hurt so much I just can't pick more spinach and clean it.


  167. ~~pirateinvestor

    I am going to set timers, won't sleep anyway, and I put a 22 rifle near the window. I don't dare to shoot one and go to jail but a shot will scare the shit out of them. Dame not a fane of deer meat unless a female, haven't seen an antler this year. Don't do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  168. UVXY / Akademia – Well, it does decay faster, but the premiums are high it seems and that make sense because it's a leverage ETF. I looked back in TOS and the returns don't seem to be as good as with VXX. For example, back on 6/11/2013 when they started with the Jan 15 LEAPS, you could buy a Jan 25 put for $21.40. That's 21.40 of premium… Today it's worth $19.80 so you lost money. UVXY (the one before the reset) is at $4.76 so maybe you get to $0 or so by January, but no guarantee of that. 

    That day, the Jan 15 70 puts were priced at $46.65, they are worth $64.00 today so a good return there – about 40% in 16 months. But that's a big investment especially in a small account. In essence, you have to go deep ITM to make any sure profit with that instrument. Another example – they reset this year back on 1/27. You could buy an ATM put (Jan 16 75 put) for $49.90. Today, you get $59. So an 18% return. Once again, not bad at all for a 7 month return, but also a bigger investment than VXX. 

    Overall I think that both instruments are good for this type of strategies, they require 2 different types of trades – one of them with OTM puts and the other one with ATM puts to take into account the premium. And with different levels of investments. Both valid though… Decay is just fabulous when you can bank on that.


  169. ~~pirateinvestor holy shit bud

    You got me alert . Those tracks are elk! They rut around Sept and we are close and been colder than normal. I really like to eat elk. Can get a permit next month and last winter there was a few hundred 1/2 mile away way too many for the available forage, bet they have lots of antlerless permits to prevent mass starvation. Elk fest??? your invited if all works out.


  170. This Burger King deal.

    Ever eat a Horton's pastry of any Varity? I have and I think they are below Dunkin with Dunkin makes good coffee if you get it before their 15 minute deadline, now they cheat! Avoid both and Panera bread that I thought sucked for breakfast.


  171. MBLY/Burr- I like this companies technology which could be adopted by the auto industry, but there are two things that are brought up by the analyst who is not recommending them. First is that the adoption rate of the auto industry for new technology is historically very slow. The second is the danger of competitors which is the bigger concern. If this is being pointed to as a possible issue, does it mean that the technology is not able to be patent protected? If so this keeps them from building that moat we all look for and would definitely be a concern. I do not have any idea if any of this is true, but it is what I gleaned from reading the links you provided.


  172. While I am at the food thing, I ate once at chipotle in Denver and it tasted very good but X times the price for a 1,000 calorie Barito is paying extra to get fat not healthy.  


  173. Webex/Craigs – Hopefully it will work OK next time, Greg will keep tabs on the situation but you might want to remind him on Monday you want to do an early test.  

    Harder/Burr – That does appeal to my rebel side but I think that, by playing "hard to get", we will only make our information that much more valuable.  

    New buys/Craigs – Well we didn't really get to that other than discussing a methodology by which we will add 11 new picks to the Buy List this week.  By the way – suggestions are welcome.  

    Child Poverty/Craigs – That's one of my key issues as it's such an easily preventable problem that causes so much damage.  We have an 18% child poverty rate in this country – that's obscene.  Unfortunately, the sick logic goes that if we help the children, we are inadvertently helping their parents and that's a "slippery slope" to the welfare state.  Seriously, that's what these nit-wits say.  

    100%/StJ – Yep, if only we can get people to accept that mindset!  

    MBLY/   – I think the technology will end up in cars but, at this early stage, who can pick a winner?  They claim to have a huge head start.  There's ALV, WBC and GNTX in this space as well as DLPH, who always have their fingers in any automotive innovation and, of course, you know GOOG has something too – they already have cars running around with no driver at all.  Of the group, GNTX (p/e 16 @ $4Bn with $250M income) is probably a good way to invest in this space without paying MBLY's (p/e infinity @ $1.3Bn with no income) crazy valuation.   Meanwhile, it is cool stuff:


  174. Horton's/Shadow – They don't really have them by me.  Not sure who eats so many donuts, even Dunkin doesn't seem to sell too many of them – mostly coffee when I go there (for ice cream).  

    MBLY/Craigs – I take it, from what I've read, that they are essentially assembling a system from available parts so nothing proprietary but the software they use to run it all.  You KNOW that there's always a better programmer out there and the chances that these guys in Israel just so happened to be the best in the World (as opposed to guys who were hired to write some software) is incredibly slim.  Big points to them for rushing to market with a system that looks and sounds cool and captures people's imaginations about some incredible future but, realistically, how many satellite radio kits did SIRI sell vs how many once they were finally included in the cars?  Whoever gets those contracts will win and that's much more likely to be GOOG or DLPH. 


  175. Idaho Falls PD has to change their pursuit policy if not a dangerous person because they endangered the public. They also think they have a heroin problem out of control because prescription narcotics are no longer available and people are turning to illegal. This at least confirms you can't get pain medication here!    


  176. How wet is it here? 25% past the 120 year record. al this KIDK TV ID.


  177. BTW high yesterday 54 right now 78. Nothing happening with global warming, positive proof colder and wetter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 


  178. APO / Phil – any view as a LT buy/write? Buy for 24.40, sell Jan16 22.5P for 3.20 & 25C for 2 for a net entry of 19.20. Quarterly distribution / div varies wildly but you could bank on another 2 bucks before expiry minimum I would think, anything else would be gravy. Doesn't look like interest rate environments getting any tougher for them any time soon……………


  179. Viagra.com

    Are they selling that little? Get it on line like that will hide you. If you have the problem with a partner that wants more count you blessing but please stop the ads.


  180. holy shit!!!!!!!!@!

    She needs pain relief first.


  181. Could it be nature is in balance?


  182. The drug companies need more money. Shall we say WTF? 


  183. Phil / BKW & THI – thanks for your input and trade idea from the other day for Burger King and Tim Hortons! Work kept me from the site until now but I didn't want to let your comment go without a thanks.


  184. Phil / JPM Butterfly – I know you usually tell us to leave the butterflies alone but I just noticed that the JPM Sep 55 put is $0.06 and was wondering what the benefit would be the leave it until expiration vs taking it off the table now and selling either a higher strike Sep put or rolling to Oct.


  185. Shadow- Front page story this week in the Philadelphia Inquirer about the alarming number of heroin overdoses due to a)large number of people using heroin instead of expensive and harder to fill prescription choices and b) someone out there is mixing fentanyl in with the heroin which makes it much more powerful, so addicts who use their usual dose are dying from the stronger additive. 

    Just shows the desperation of pain sufferers as the story featured a couple who were injured badly in a car crash, turned to heroin as relief from pain, injected together and the wife died of an overdose while husband was revived with something called narcan. Awful story but apparently becoming common all over/


  186. craig

    Didn't have a clue about what you say, it was local BS news, KIDK. I have tried to get pain relief and failed, the real roadblock was Fentanyl worked, prescribed Opana or something close to that, cost over $1,000 per month and insurance would not cover because fentanyl was more effective and much cheaper, covered.

    It is total BS nobody would add fentanyl to heroin because it is much more expensive, actually more to manufacture than most others but still a generic drug on formularies. All Bull shit to fuel the drug wars to keep cops paid while the nation goes broke and people like me can't function because of beyond most can imagine pain. 


  187. Up, up and away…


  188. craig

    Did you know fentanyl works for only 8 minutes by injection? That is why it is in a patch that slowly absorbs through the skin. The patches can't actually be abused, even eating them won't work, can't inject that form. An addict would have to shoot up every 8 minutes if he could get the hospital only form. I actually used them for 14 months and when the doc refused to prescribe NOTHING ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!!!!!, except pain!  They worked and I was functional. A drug addict would never use it. 


  189. Hell a drug dealer would never add it, they would loose their as and all profit.


  190. loose customers


  191. How much did they pay that guy to say that? Impossible!


  192. Apparently made in Mexico illegally . Not real brand name stuff. My mom used the patches when she shattered her shoulder and you are correct about the efficacy. Helped her get through that. 


  193. I don't care where they made it, if real it works and can't be abused when I got out of surgery I used 150mcg, a 100mcg the biggest and a 50mcg and I was totally alert, even posted for about a month on PSW, check back to March 2013. Was I intoxicated? Wasn't in pain until they went from 50mcg patch to nothing.


  194. craig

    I had both shoulders fixed with no medication when I left the hospital, my neck hurt more and they wouldn't give me enough so I refused and went home.


  195. I hope none of you ever know the difference between spinal pain and anything else, it is a different scale, I could get Arlyn to tell the same thing, some spinal surgeons know most you need to go else ware. Seriously that is why they don't want to do it, I say spinal is final, period, and the good guys get in trouble trying. Lucky people just end paralyzed, I know 2, pain free! 


  196. Tim Hortons is pretty much a part of Canadian culture, and it all started in Hamilton, ON, where I first lived when I came to Canada. And it's much more than donuts – I can't remember the last time I bought donuts there. Coffee is awesome, great bagels, sandwiches and much more. Lineups inside and at at the drive through and inside are constant all day.

    Shadow, this morning you said, "Yodi was ridiculed for not using FB last weekend because it infected others." You must be referring to my comment to Yodi which was intended to be helpful and Yodi took it that way. You need to re-read what I said because ridicule is not even close.


  197. MobileEye/Driver Assist:  Subaru has already been equipping some of its new cars with its new Eyesight 2.5 Driver Assist System as a standard option for a couple of years now.  It also does gives audio and visual warnings and will automatically apply the brakes to prevent a frontal collision.  It also throttles the engine if it detects a potential collision.  Additionally features are adaptive cruise control to maintain a certain amount of distance between you and the car in front of you and lane sway detection that gives a warning if you sway out of your lane unintentionally.   It'll also alert you at traffic lights if the car ahead of you starts moving. 

    Its pretty cool technology and its already been out in Japan and Australia for a while.  I don't know if its out in the States yet, but it certainly seems like it'll prevent accidents and make people better drivers on average.


  198. ~~grenowoods

    I am out there with a noose around my neck, but it wasn't you, Phil said we were beggars. I will say I thought Horton's coffee was way below Dunkin also Star bucks is undrinkable, the varieties I tried, and both are packed so it is just my opinion, add Panera bread, I think they sell bad stuff.


  199. kink

    Better drivers I doubt, those can't be improved but we will all be safer. I really worry about those that can't stop the phone tablet whatever. Arlyn and I were devastated by a texter.


  200. The FB was all mixed in and I know yodi was trying to back me while he was not going to use FB. I won't either but I did send you caring to senator Barasso today, may be in jail tomorrow but he was a doctor.


  201. Shadow

    At the risk of upsetting you, I have to chime in briefly.  I doubt that the guy working at McDonalds was paid anything to say what he said.  He lost his wife, and they seemed to be dealing with some serious medical and financial issues simultaneously.  We certainly can't believe everything we read, nor should we assume its all fake and lies.

    Fentanyl is a very effective opioid analgesic (like morphine, or dilaudid) and it's well known that many drug dealers mix illicit drugs with "prescription" drugs to differentiate their products and make them more potent.  These medications are VERY sedating to those who are naive to them and can result in severe respiratory suppression at even small doses, thus leading to a quick and quiet demise.  This can certainly happen if used in combination with another sedative like heroin.  We saw this type of thing going on in Philadelphia for some time, I can only imagine it makes the news today for some other reason..perhaps the fact that these people had to turn to drugs as a result of their healthcare coverage issues. 

    Fentanly can certainly can be abused as can Percocet, Oxycontin, Propofol, etc. People just have less access to it at an acceptable cost (many drug addicts are not all that wealthy…although many are). In general, people who have true pain (like yourself) are less susceptible to becoming "addicted" and losing their ability to function cognitively because they are using the medication for a purpose.  Rather, they become dependent on the medications, to function and accomplish things that they otherwise wouldn't be able to in the presence of pain.  Fentanyl patches are designed not to be abused, they slowly elute the drug and it's absorbed transdermally.  This also provides a constant delivery of pain medication to minimize the ups and downs of pain control associated with oral medications . 

    I suppose I'd gently suggest that you use some caution when using your personal experience as the primary reference for the validity of some of the medical issues that appear in the discussions here.  I think its important for us to all share our opinions but at times its a bit much.  You're last statement "lucky people end up paralyzed" is completely outrageous!  Ask anyone who's paralyzed if they'd like to walk albeit in pain and see what they say…


  202. Jeffdoc

    I partially agree with you drug assessment because it could be abused but I have found flaws in that identification story, why would a drug dealer spend extra money to put identity on heroin, It just makes no sense and Doctor Chad Horrocks who refused to give me anything agreed by saying the same. You probable have to prescribe pain medication and are also under pressure to never prescribe because of this and other excuses. The situation is ridiculous right down to who gives a crap about being addicted if you can function. The people I know say they prefer pain free because they know me and other that suffer, to them it is easier, but yes they would love to walk. For some time I couldn't but with pain. What has pushed me in the last 5 or so months is cleaning up myself and I am never wet!


  203. Phil/XRT,

    Are you closing the Sep 93/88 BCS in STP or keeping that and adding a Oct BCS?


  204. Don't be naive shadow. Who say the dealer is paying for anything legitimately? They usually don't go through the normal channels to acquire things like Fentanyl. All it takes is a crooked doctor/pharmacist/delivery man etc to make it work. These guys aren't idiots, they aren't going to pay what it actually costs to get the drug!! Or perhaps they have a supplier getting the drugs from elsewhere. Who knows….but it does happen.

    I do prescribe these types of medications and I do it based on what I think he patient needs and will benefit from. Some do try to abuse the meds and we have to identify that, the majority of people however use them responsibly.


  205. jeffdoc

    I dealt with incontinence for years and it is humiliating, it went away Feb 2013 but is back at times without warning, My dad blew his intestines and wore a bag for 6 or 8 months and he didn't want to live anymore.

    I am not advocating legalize all drugs but you must admit people are suffering while not denting drug addiction. This is like I am the yo yo and you have the string, on or off depending what the DEA thinks, not a single doctor or pain sufferer has any input. And yes I will say it forever including who are these pain docs? Flunked out, burnt out anesthesiologists that come and go like the tide. Good place to burn up money! My surgeons that couldn't do the job say just treat the pain but it doesn't work out with these drop outs so I found what gets fixed stops pain and regains functionality including not shitting your pants.

    Yes I know some abuse but here in Mormon land it is not possible unless you know some hidden doc if that exists, and the doctor drug dealers need to be arrested but no, drug companies have too much at stake. I have been sent to so many BS missions I am in debt so I think the situation would be better if we just sold drugs to people who need OR WANT them. You wanting control is mostly wrong. Please take no offence as I understand the pressure your under, I thank you, the only thing that worked was one doctor name and now 4 to 5 months later I am surly forgotten. You may not believe it but without a referral or actually know a doctor you go nowhere, my doc says get a prealt pump. I don't like that stuff, tried it twice.


  206. It still makes no sense! Why even go through the process, I think you believe it but the cops think all blacks are violent, also makes no sense. This is simply the war on drugs. Just do as you feel right but please use common sense when drug enforcement makes ridiculous statements just because the have a few people or maybe bags that tested positive for fentanyl. I heard for the same doc they try to eat the patches.


  207. Jeffdoc

    Obviously this is annoying to me but the cops are more likely to have made the packages up than drug dealers and who knows they plant drugs to make arrests work and in some places, Texas is a major one, charge people take property and then let them go, pays for equipment, vacations, bonuses, you name it . You have to admit they have more reason, insentive to do it.


  208. Phil,

    I have taken great strides forward since joining PSW in managing my trades. Even the ones that went bad: CLF, ABX, GDX, I have worked them to a profit on CLF and ABX and almost now on GDX. The huge winner this year was AAPL and glad I stuck with them thru all the rolls you suggested. One thing I am not sure of is how you tell what the maximum profit is on a BCS at maturity. For example I have 27 2016 AAPL 85.71 calls bought at  12.50, now 20.25. Sold 27 107.14 calls at 4.85, now 9.50. Yesterday I cashed 15 of the spreads to lock in some gains.  It seems the max profit would be at 112? My question is how do you figure the the max profit in 2016? Thanks


  209. jomptien  -  The width of the spread is it's max value.  Then subtract what you paid for the spread.

    So the width is : 107.14-85.71 = $21.43 is the max value

    You paid : 12.50 – 4.85 = $7.65 is you're cost of the spread

    Max profit is : 21.43 – 7.65 = $13.78


  210. PSEC. .Glad we waited!  http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSEC/news

    FQ4 net investment income of $84.1M or $0.25 per share is well south of expectations for $0.32 and stands against $98.5M and $0.31 one year ago. Originations slipped to $444M in FQ4 from $1.3B a quarter previous.


  211. SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!  

    Futures kind of flat at the moment.  Asia flat, Europe flat – interesting.  

    China Is Awash in Grain Crops -  As the harvest looms next month, China is on track for an 11th year of bumper grain crops. But production is too much, even for the world's most populous nation.

    Israel, Hamas Agree to New Cease-Fire - Israel and Hamas agreed to their first open-ended cease-fire after seven weeks of military confrontation and will resume truce talks in Cairo in the coming days.

    IMF Chief Lagarde Under Investigation - A French court has placed IMF chief Christine Lagarde under formal investigation for negligence over her role in a political fraud case. 12 min ago

    SPX WEEKLYNot much going on so nothing really to play, just have to see which way the chips fall.  Don't forget, holiday weekend coming – that's always a huge wild card.  As you can see from the chart above, the volume was a total joke, yet not a single "TA Expert" on CNBC or Bloomberg ever mentions it.  

    Japan's Vice Economy Minister states risks of next tax hike

    • Compared to its previous hike, the Japanese government needs to be more cautious regarding its upcoming decision to raise the national sales tax, warns Vice Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura.
    • Nishimura highlights that the sharp decline in consumer spending from the 3% tax hike in April is proving prolonged, and hopes that the Bank of Japan will decide on further monetary easing as appropriate.
    • Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is to soon decide whether to proceed with the proposed plan of raising the national sales tax even higher, lifting the rate to 10%.

    Euro, bond yields fall to new lows on stimulus speculation

    • Speculation of further policy easing from the ECB drove down the euro and bond yields to new lows this morning, with markets wagering that steps toward stimulus measures could come as early as next week.
    • Euro zone inflation data due on Friday is also likely to show a fresh low for this cycle of just 0.3% and add to the sense of urgency on policy.
    • The euro fell to an 11-month low of $1.3154 in Asia, taking it nearer to the Sept. 6 trough of $1.3104.

    Ukraine to establish ceasefire plans following talks in Minsk

    • President Petro Poroshenko vowed to put together an urgent ceasefire plan to end the crisis in Ukraine's east immediately after meeting with Vladimir Putin.
    • Putin described the negotiations as positive, but says it is ultimately up to Kiev to work out conditions for a ceasefire with separatist rebels.
    • Still, the two seemed to make little progress over their fundamental trade and energy disagreements and Kiev's relations with the EU.

    Keystone fight continues as delay seen through midterm elections

    • The legal dispute over the proposed path for the Keystone XL pipeline in Nebraska is made to order for Pres. Obama in a congressional election year, giving him leeway to hold off on deciding the fate of the project until after November.
    • Next Friday, the Nebraska Supreme Court will begin hearing oral arguments over whether a 2012 law giving Nebraska's governor authority to approve the state’s portion of the Canada-to-Texas oil sands pipeline violates the state constitution.
    • If the Court upholds a lower court ruling favoring landowners, TransCanada (NYSE:TRP) would have to convince the state’s Public Service Commission to approve the proposed route, which could take six to nine months.

    Penn West says reserves not impacted by accounting under review

    • Penn West Energy (NYSE:PWE) says the audit committee's review of accounting practices confirms that the company's reserves volumes and values are not impacted.
    • PWE says the accounting practices under review have no effect on the independent estimates of the volumes of its proved and proved plus probable crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids reserves and the NPVs of the future net revenues of such reserves as reported at year-end 2013 and 2012.

    Barrick Gold planning corporate cutbacks, Reuters reports

    • Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) is eliminating its corporate development team, including the head of the development team, with more cuts in the works as it looks to further cut costs, Reuters reports.
    • ABX moved to lay off up to a third of the staff at its corporate headquarters in Toronto and other offices just over a year ago.

    TrinaSolar -8% after revenue miss, Chinese solar peers follow

    • Trina Solar (TSL -8.1%) shares are tumbling after the company reported in-line Q2 earnings but lower than expected revenue, dragging down other Chinese solar companies including Yingli Green (YGE -5.8%), ReneSola (SOL -1.3%), but Canadian Solar (CSIQ +0.1%) and Jinko Solar (JKS +0.6%) are slightly higher.
    • TSL CEO Jifan Gao said in today's earnings call that the company continues to see "robust" demand for its products in the U.S., prompting research firm Cowen to say that today's decline in TSL's stock was overdone; TSL is suffering from capacity constraints and is adding capacity, according to the firm, which keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

    Airliner roundup: Labor troubles at Southwest, American exits Orbitz, Delta hiring

    • Southwest Airlines (LUV -0.8%) says it's "shocked and disappointed" by a request from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers for mediation over a new contract. Talks between the two parties have become heated.
    • American Airlines Group (AAL -0.7%) pulled its listing from Orbitz in a development that could create a divide in the online travel industry. Several other carriers have hinted about a similar move.
    • Delta Air Lines (DAL -1.1%) says it will add 1,800 flights attendants in order to keep up with its expanded flight schedule. A few cracks on a tightened capacity stance in the sector have started to emerge on top of Delta's aggressive plans.

    Drop in long gun demand impacts Smith & Wesson

    • Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) reports decreased sales of long guns contributed 87% of the company's FQ1 revenue tailoff.
    • Gross margin rate -540 bps to 37.2% due in part to the shift in mix away from long guns.
    • Operating expense ratio +320 bps to 17.7%.
    • The company sees FY15 EPS of $0.89-$0.94 vs. $1.34 consensus.
    • Shares of SWHC are under a trading halt.

    Seagate beats Western to market by launching 8TB hard drive

    • Nine months after Western Digital (WDC +0.1%) became the first company to launch a 6TB hard drive, Seagate (STX -0.3%) has become the first to launch an 8TB drive.
    • Like Western's offering, Seagate's drive is aimed at the high-capacity enterprise storage segment, which has been growing rapidly (and taking share from high-margin performance-optimized drives) thanks to strong demand from Web/cloud giants. The company promises "the best Watts/GB for enterprise bulk data storage in the industry."
    • Unlike Western, Seagate (tight-lipped about technical details for now) isn't making use of helium to achieve high densities and low power draw. The company's shingled magnetic recording(SMR) tech might be leveraged. Seagate has promised SMR will enable 20TB drives by 2020.

    WSJ: Kleiner Perkins investing in Snapchat at ~$10B valuation

    • The WSJ reports leading VC firm Kleiner Perkins has committed to invest in Snapchat at nearly a $10B valuation. Kleiner reportedly "committed to invest up to $20 million in May," and at least one "strategic investor" is also said to be taking part in the funding round.
    • Alibaba was previously reported to be eying an investment in Snapchat at a similar valuation, but talks are believed to have ended without a deal. Facebook was famously rumored to have madea $3B+ offer for the ephemeral messaging service before turning its sights on WhatsApp.
    • The WSJ also reports Snapchat now has 100M+ monthly active users (MAUs). That still leaves it behind Instagram's 200M+, Twitter's 271M (at the end of Q2), WeChat's 438M (also at the end of Q2), and WhatsApp's 600M+. Snapchat reportedly plans to monetize its users through an ad service later this year.
    • Naver's (OTC:NHNCF) Line unit, looking to go public in NYC and Tokyo at a ~$10B valuation, must be pleased to see the report. Line is closing in on 500M registered users (different from MAUs) for its mobile messaging service.

    Intel reportedly looking to ship 25M tablet CPUs in 2H14

    • Supply chain sources tell Digitimes Intel (INTC -0.3%) shipped less than 15M tablet CPUs in 1H14, and is now "aggressively cooperating" with Taiwanese and Chinese tablet vendors to hit its full-year target of 40M.
    • The site adds new Intel-based low-end tablets from Chinese/Taiwanese firms are expected to enter mass-production in late September or early October. A baseband/app processor meant for low-end tablets is due in 1H15, courtesy of a partnership with China's Rockchip.
    • In addition to Apple and Samsung's use of internally-developed app processors, slowing industry growth is acting as a headwind for Intel. IDC estimates global tablet shipments rose 3.9% Y/Y in Q1, and 11% in Q2.
    • Thanks in part to major contra revenue (marketing subsidy) payments to OEMs, Intel's mobile chip segment posted a $1.12B op. loss in Q2. Morgan Stanley has estimated the business willneed to reach $8B-$10B/year in sales (up from 2013's $1.38B) to break even.
    • Meanwhile, Intel has unveiled the XM6255, a 3G baseband modem it declares to be the world's smallest. The chip, which competes with offerings from Qualcomm and MediaTek, is aimed at the embedded/wearables market.

  212. Max profit – thanks Burrben


  213. Idaho Falls/Shadow – Here's a nice statistical breakdown of the crimes you guys are committing

    See how dangerous Idaho Falls, ID is compared to nearest cities:
    (Note: Higher means more crime)

    Idaho Falls:

     

    214.0

    Shelley:

     

    79.1

    Rigby:

     

    165.9

    Blackfoot:

     

    257.0

    Rexburg:

     

    48.4

    St. Anthony:

     

    66.5

    Come on Shadow, you guys are losing to Blackfoot?  surprise

    APO/Mck – They are a nice company to own.  I'm not interested in them for the same reason I'm not interested in GS, JPM et al – unless they happen to be very cheap, there's no easy way to measure their catalysts going forward.  While APO has good income (p/e under 10), they also have $15Bn in debt against a $4Bn valuation so they make their money by using free money.  Not that there's anything wrong with that as a business but what happens to them when the free money train stops coming?  

    So, to that extent, as with most Financials, they fail my test of "If they drop 50% on bad news, would I be happy to double down" as well as my other test for 20-year holds "Is this a stock I certainly expect to be happily giving to my children in 20 years" – can't be sure of that one either.  

    There's noting wrong with APO as ONE OF your Financial stocks in a diversified portfolio but I much prefer BAC in that space.  At $16.33, we just picked them at $15 and I'd keep them on a watch list in case they get cheap again.  

    Submitted on 2014/06/09 at 10:44 am

    BAC/Albo – They were on my watch list but didn't make the cut due to the latest round of fines – I think it needs time for the dust to settle still.  I certainly don't think they'll go BK though, so just selling the 2016 $15s for $1.65 is a good way to get started at net $13.35 and, from there, you can see how things go.  

    You're welcome Pfehl.  

    JPM/Butterfly, Pfehl – Good catch.  There's no point in keeping a put open when you can buy it back for .06 with weeks to go.  Financials are up with the market and the main point to buying the short puts back is to free up the slot so we can resell if JPM pulls back next week.  If they don't come back down next week, I'd be inclined to sell Oct $60 puts, now $1.74, to offset the gains on the short Sept $57.50 calls

    Heroin/Craigs – Yikes, here's a story about it

    ohn Simmons said he had been using heroin for only six months or so, having graduated from Percocet when the money for prescription painkillers ran out. He and his wife injected together in their South Philadelphia apartment, as they always did.

    "The high was immediate," Simmons said. "Like, my knees started buckling. I went to run to my wife, because she started to fall, and I remember waking up, and the paramedics said, 'Give it up, she's dead.' "

    And while addicts often buy and die in cities, most heartache nationwide is in suburban and rural areas. Two-thirds of the 280 drug overdoses (22 of them fatal) reported this year in Camden involved suburban residents.

    Authorities and treatment professionals say the reasons are financial. More than a decade ago, drug companies began heavily marketing new prescription narcotics, establishing pills for every ailment as the new normal.

    Once prescriptions run out, or a doctor stops writing them, users find that the same drugs on the street are costly, he said. "The replacement is heroin."

    Yep, just one of the lovely side-effects of having an insane health-care policy that lets 45M people fall through the cracks.  You force people to seek illegal meds and, frankly, the dealers are often just trying to help by adding pain meds to the mix for their customers but, of course, they don't know what they're doing – especially in the suburbs, where you have more amateur dealers (city dealers often have excellent chemists working for them).  

    And what Jeffdoc said!  

    Big Char still very strong. Really won't be a reason to be bearish unless 4,500 fails on Nas or 1,170 on RUT (-2.5%) or 11,000 on NYSE (that one is close).  

    MBLY/Kinki – Sounds dreadful to me.  I don't mind if a car wants to drive me around but I won't pay to have one nagging me while I drive.  I can't even stand cruise control.  Maybe when I get older and begin nodding off while driving – but by then we should have self-driving cars so I'll probably miss the MBLY era.  

    Why/Shadow – I would say that the street cost of Fentanyl is not what you think it is, or that the amount required is little enough as to make it profitable to does heroin with it.  Drug dealing is a business, like any other and dealers will meet the demands of their customers if they can do it profitably.  Although, at $30 a pill, maybe they should get out of the heroin business and just sell the Fentanyl…

    And what Jeffdoc said! 

    XRT/RKP – The Sept spread is now even but we're also pretty much on track so I'm not inclined to kill it until next week (if necessary).  

    AAPL/Jomp – Well, if you bought the $85.71/107.14 bull call spread for net $7.65, the spread is $21.43 so your max profit is $13.78.  At net $10.75 now, you still have $10.50 left to gain so you should expect to gain about 2 cents a day to be "on track".  So any week you don't gain .15 and any month you don't gain 0.60 should worry but, otherwise, the idea is just to let time do it's work.  You're not going to make the full $13.78 any other way but waiting though, if AAPL goes way up over $120, it may get to the point where it's not worth waiting anymore.  

    And what Burr said.  

    PSEC/Burr – You are welcome!  

    PSEC/Burr – They're a nice little mezzanine player and they certainly were cheap under $10.  At just $11, they're still a good deal and the dividend is nice but not very exciting options to sell when you are in between strikes ($10 and $12.50) like it is now.  Options only go out to Feb and, like many div payers, you don't get enough from sellling calls to make it worthwhile.  You can sell the Feb $12.50 puts for $2 to net $10.50 but saving .50 not that thrilling – and then you don't get the dividend ($1.32) so, sorry, not really much to do with them option-wise, but it is a good company to hold.

    Submitted on 2014/06/17 at 10:28 am

    PSEC/Albo – Well, if we assume the market never corrects, then mezz financing is a good business.  My issue with them (companies like this) is that I simply don't have time to pay attention to them and they can go up and down 10% without any kind of news hitting the wires since so few people care about these businesses.  It's kind of a niche specialty – just make sure you stay on top of them (and their holdings) through news-feeds and keep a close eye on rates – which can affect them drastically.  

    Keep in mind, this is what it's like to own these guys in a bad week:

    Of course they came back almost right away – just make sure you are able to ride out a 50% drop in the stock after some bad news.  Personally, I prefer to buy AFTER they have a nice 25-50% drop, rather than chase them on small dips.  

    Submitted on 2014/08/21 at 2:28 pm

    PSEC/Burr – Now those guys might get whacked by rising rates.  I don't know much about them and not too transparent on the books.  Companies like this are very tricky to value and most of their "news" comes from PR services, though it seems to get a lot of push from Motley Fool.  Can't say I don't like their model, it's similar to what we're doing with PSW Investments except they do loans with equity kickers – it just depends on how much you trust the management team to invest the money. 


  214. Oil failing $94 again.