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2,000 Tuesday – Will There be a Fall?


Terrible numbers from China's Manufacturing Industry led to rumors of more stimulus from Beijing for Q4 and that propelled Asian markets higher this morning.  The HSBC PMI report fell to 50.2 (barely expanding) for August and China's "official" PMI fell from 51.7 to 51.1.  

The manufacturing slowdown adds to signs that China's "economy still faces considerable downside risks to growth in the second half of the year, which warrant further policy easing to ensure a steady growth recovery," said HSBC economist Hongbin Qu.

That's all Europe had to hear to put on their own rally caps as they've already got Draghi fever over there, in anticipation of Thursday's ECB rate decision, where a cut is widely expected to stop the Euro Zone from plunging into free-fall with Italy and others practically in a Depression at this point.  That's pushing EU markets up half a point in early trading and boosting US Futures (which we're shorting).  

Back to China though.  As you can see above, we have a cool chart of collapsing housing prices leading one analyst to say: "The way prices have fallen, it's as if there is a global financial crisis."  Ha Ha Ha – silly analyst!  That's the way things would look if we were in the REAL World but this is not the real world, this is the Central Bankster's Paradise!  

United Overseas Bank, Singapore's third-biggest lender, reported a doubling in its bad debt charges for the second quarter, saying a group of investors was struggling to service high-end property loans.  The number of residential properties being put up for sale at auction by banks after buyers defaulted on mortgages, known as mortgagee sales, quadrupled to 64 in the first half of this year from 16 in the second half of 2013, according to real estate agency Colliers.

"The rental can't even cover the mortgage for these high-end investments – they want to offload but there are no takers."

OK folks, move along – nothing to see here.  What crisis?  Please don't say crisis – thank you…

All we need is more stimulus, right?  Well, need it or not, more stimulus is what we're going to get from China, from Draghi, from Kuroda and from Yellen, as well as from all the minor Banksters that are able to get away with their own money printing.  As long as everyone is doing it, we'll all be fine (ish) – it's when the music stops that we'll notice a certain scarcity of chairs.  

Meanwhile, we need to fiddle while Rome is buring if we're going to keep up with our indexes, which are stubbornly pushing to new highs despite all the actual news.  We're still 100% bullish in our Long-Term Portfolio, which closed Friday up 22% for the year and we've gotten more bearish in our Short-Term Portfolio which, despite being wrong so far, is still up 33.6%.  With our added protection in place – it's time to hit the Buy List, which we updated this weekend with 15 new long-term trade ideas.

We'll be reviewing our 5 Member Portfolios, along with the new Buy List, this afternoon in our live Webinar (Members Only - Join Here).  



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  1. Rousing upgrade on Tesla Motors from Stifel Nicolaus • 8:26 AM

    Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

    Stifel Nicolaus upgrades Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) to a Buy rating and gives the EV automaker a $400 price target.

    The investment firm walked away impressed from a factory tour and sees a run rate of 1,000 units per week by the end of the year as achievable.

    The estimate for Tesla's 2017 EPS is lifted to $8.28 vs. $6.14 prior.

    Stifel on momentum: "TSLA sentiment is like a freight train, in our view, benefiting from a well manicured growth story that has caught the eye of a much broader investor base relative to most auto stocks."

    TSLA +2.8% premarket to $277.26.

  2. Good morning!  

    Embedded image permalink

    Remember the GOP's special new Benghazi investigation? It might not be…

    A recent paper by Dr. Sergio Canavero featured on Quartz outlines a procedure that could be used in the world's very first human head transplant. Modeled after successful head transplants performed on animals, the procedure overcomes the technical obstacles that previously made such a transplant impossible. 

    ECONOMIST: iPhone 6 sales will be so big they'll move the needle on Chinese exports

    How every square foot of an Apple store is designed to make you spend more money

    How conservative nonsense infects America

    Nato Plans 'Spearhead' Force To Face Russia

    French President Says "There Is Risk Of War" As Europe Plans Additional Russia Sanctions

    Japan's 'Abenomics' feared in trouble as challenges build

    If Consumers Are So Confident, Then Why Aren't They Spending

    Double Whammy China PMI Misses Spark Sell-Side Demands For More Stimulus

    USDJPY (And Nikkei) Surge Higher as Japanese Car Sales Collapse To 3-Year Lows

    Europe's Fantastic Bond Bubble: How Central Banks Have Unleashed Mindless Speculation

    Europe's Largest Economy Is Running Out Of Steam

    The Bad News Out Of Europe Is Intensifying

    How Corporate Share Buybacks Are Destroying America

  3. The sad part on TSLA is that stuff stacked up in the factory is from them being two weeks behind on current deliveries. They will probably just make their Q3 deliveries if they can get everything out the door, they possibly might miss though

  4. Good Morning All! 

    Today's webinar will be at 1pm (eastern) here:

    Event Number: 666 986 327

  5. Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:


    A.M Happy Labor Day!

    P.M. – Market’s Closed



    A.M. – CONN

    P.M.– PRGN, SWS



    A.M. – NAV, TOL




    A.M. – CIEN, PAY

    P.M. – FNSR, ZQK, ZUMZ



    A.M. – KMG, MVC


    Economic Releases (9/2 – 9/5):


    N/A – Markets Closed



    8:45 am CT– PMI MFG. Index

    9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

    9:00 am CT – Construction Spending



    Auto Sales – All Day

    6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

    6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

    7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

    9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

    1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



    7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

    7:30 am CT– International Trade

    7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

    8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

    9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

    9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

    10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories

    11:30 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks

    5:15 pm CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks

    8:00 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



    7:30 am CT – August Jobs Report

    9:15 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

    2:45 pm CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

  6. Interesting article on how the Pres is handling all the world crises.  It's rare for the Washington Post to have such a negative article on a President. who is a Democrat.

  7. Oil Lines are busted this morning. S3 was at 95.20 and we are already at 94.88! That's from the low volume trading yesterday!

  8. Phil;  question on TZA hedge.  If not concerned about buying power impact, why not buy TZA shares as opposed to BCS?  Thx

  9. This is enlightening:

    In total, $13.6 trillion charged to American people to pay back without our knowledge or Congressional approval. NO WORD FROM MEDIA! 


    As I suspected, mounting evidence that hack attack on ICloud was actually minor and blown out of proportion - AAPL looking to open up slightly:

    But Hamade apparently neglected to excise his hard drive and network drive names from the screenshot, and investigators on Reddit quickly matched them to previous uploads made by a user calling himself BluntMastermind.

    Earlier today, Hamade told Buzzfeed's Charlie Warzel that he was only trying—unsuccessfully—to scam money from people and wasn't involved in the actual hack.

    But despite the repeated denials, Warzel was apparently able to locate evidence suggestingHamade had successfully ransomed photographs that appeared "only in Hamade's postings."

    Hamade—who did not answer or return phone calls from Gawker—appears to have stopped responding to Warzel entirely after claiming to be "driving around trying to find an open law office."

    Some photos were hacked through iCloud, but probably not all.

    There's evidence that the hackers were able to grab some of the photographs by accessing certain celebrities' Apple iClouds—where, theoretically, archived backups of photo libraries could be ripped and unpackaged.

    A Github user reportedly posted a Python script earlier today that allowed for a "brute force" attack against Apple's iCloud service, essentially allowing hackers to repeatedly guess passwordswithout being shut out. That bug has reportedly been patched, and Apple is reportedly investigating.

    But it's likely that some photos were taken through other methods, potentially including Dropbox vulnerabilities or simple social engineering tactics (well known on AnonIB) like researching and correctly answering security questions.

  10. China  - well, no anymore maybe:

    Although expansion plans aren’t as aggressive as before, it’s worth nothing that a majority of companies are still growing their operations in China. But lackluster revenue growth coupled with an increasingly difficult business environment may be enough to encourage them to think twice in the future—14% of firms said that they relocated some or all of their operations away from mainland China this year, up from 11% in 2013.

  11. Stifel Nicolaus is the same firm where Bannister just raised his estimate on the S&P for this year from 1800 to 2300.  That firm has quickly become a joke and create high or low targets for headlines.  No one keeps track when they're dead wrong.

  12. My family and I are back from a month-long driving tour of the National Parks.  I offer a few observations for perspective.

    The 15+ parks/monuments we visited we busy, but not overflowing.  My estimate is that between 50-70% of the tourists are foreigners.  This is supported by a park ranger in Bryce saying 60% of the tourists there are foreigners.  Mostly Germans, but also many Chinese.  We were able to find camp sites (tent) and hotels without reservations, although it sometimes took a little looking.

    Gas prices (premium) across the country ranged from a low of $3.75 to one high of $6.28 (remote location), but mostly around $4. While the National Park Service budget has reportedly been cut, the parks appear in good shape and there are plenty of cheerful rangers and volunteer staff on duty.

    Local economies in Travers City, MI, the Black Hills of South Dakota, Jackson, WY and the larger cities Seattle, Portland, Sacramento, Salt Lake, etc. seem to be thriving.  However, the rafting companies in Jackson have cut back on the number of trips per day so they are not as full as they might have been in past years.

    The drought in California is very evident.  Burned grass, brown trees, skinny horses, dry stream beds and Lake Mead must be 250 feet below full level.  Other areas have normal or above normal water.  The mountains of Montana are green and rivers flowing, Flagstaff – Grand Canyon area complaining of constant rain although it was sunny and lush green when we passed through.

    Overall, from an economic perspective we did not see much evidence of distress.  A bus driver from Idaho told me the economy there was still slow but in contrast we got the last room in a hotel in South Bend since it was the weekend and the Fighting Irish had a home game.  No shortage of people spending money there.

    Nice to be back, but I am ready to go again…

  13. A race to the bottom…

    Cloud storage pricing chart August 2014

    Note that Apple and Microsoft are missing from the list. Apple currently offers iCloud storage plans up to 50 GB, at a relatively pricey $100 per year. But at the company’s annual developers conference in June, it announced that it would lower its rates for cloud storage and offer plans up to 1 TB. More details could come next week. Microsoft offers OneDrive personal accounts up to 200 GB, which cost $3.99 per month.

    Why is cloud storage getting so cheap? The cost of modern hard-drive storage has plummeted, from around $20 per GB in 2000 to just 3 cents per GB today, according to data compiled by Matt Komorowski. Cloud storage remains a relatively new service for consumers, so it’s a bit more expensive than the offline equivalent. For now.

  14. If you're going to aim for a top on TSLA, I would guess as outrageous as the price is now, 540 would give it the market cap of F only without the revenues or earnings or production or book value.  I personally don't think TSLA will ever have 5 billion in earnings from their cars and certainly not in the next 5 years when there will be much more competition.  Would be hard to justify more than that but I can see the stock getting halved still if not more if they miss production or there is just a couple missteps.  A Jan '16 520 call on TSLA pays over $5 on open.

  15. Good Morning!

  16. sibe14 – Sounds like a great trip!


    A neighbor of mine has only 3 or 4 National Parks to hit before he and his wife have seen them all…..

  17. WYNN – Getting popped.

  18. TSLA/Jabob – It's amazing, isn't it.  That's up 40% from here, forward p/e is already 81 (2015) based on lofty expectations of a 200% increase in profits and 50% increase in revenues (seriously, those are the projections!).  Stifel says that's way too low…

    TSLA has a big bump in March from Norway but sales have not been all that exciting in the US at just 7,400 for the first half of the year.  I guess it's nice if they ramp up capacity for 50,000 cars but then they have to actually sell them at some point:

    And, keep in mind, like any car maker – they are greatly benefiting from record low financing rates – which matters more in the luxury market.  It's hard to see how a lower-cost car is going to save them when there are already lots of competitors on the low end.  

    Webinar/Greg – Thanks but you need a yellow box!!!  

    Earnings/QC – Thanks.  TOL is very important tomorrow.

    Post/Albo – That's the biggest difference between Liberals and Conservatives – we don't have blinders on when it comes to our party leaders, we are free to criticize them without being called "un-American" or without fear of being ostracized by our own party.  Conservatives should try not blindly going along with every dumb-ass thing their leaders do – they might end up with stronger candidates.  

    Oil all weak again at $94.69.  At this point, there's no stopping the death cross of the 50 dma and that's going to send a negative technical signal.

    TZA/Options – TZA decays over time, so not so great to hold and also, the idea is to get a leveraged play.  Let's say you have a $100,000 bullishly invested and expect to lose 10% in a 10% RUT drop and you want to hedge $5,000 of it.  A 10% RUT drop will pop TZA 30% and $5,000 is 30% of $15,000, so you need to have $15,000 worth of TZA to get 5% portfolio protection from a 10% drop.

    If, however, you buy just $2,500 worth of the of the TZA Oct $13/16 bull call spread at $1 (25 contracts), they will pay you back $7,500 if TZA goes up about 15% (just a 5% move up in the RUT) AND they don't lose all their money until TZA is down 10% (a 3% move up in the RUT) whereas a 3% move up in the RUT against your $15,000 worth of contracts would cost you $1,500 on $15,000 worth of TZA and a 5% move up in the RUT would cost you 15% or $2,200.  

    Since you have a bull call spread though, you won't lose all your money until expiration and you can adjust.  So, much better upside, less cash committed, manageable downside, no decay risk and, oh yes, it's 50% in the money to start.  That's why not…

    Wages/StJ – Alas poor middle class!  I knew it, StJ – a people of infinite jest, of most excellent work ethic.  They hath borne the economy on their backs a thousand times and now, how abhorred they have become…

    Stifel/Rustle – Isn't it funny how no one keeps track of anything?  You would think there would be at least a service or something but there isn't – all these analysts, all these Investment Banks are free to say whatever they want with no consequences at all – the press doesn't even call them out on it.  Hard to prove a conspiracy from the fact that there's absolutely nothing happening but how illogical is it?  

    Thanks for the report, Sibe – I love hearing from real people about how things look on the ground.  

    Whoa, big wheeeeee off those levels – as I mentioned in the post, we're shorting at:

    At the moment we have /YM 17,120, /ES 2,005, /NQ 4,093 and /TF 1,179.50 

    Also, /NKD 15,800 should be the laggard and a good short below that line.  /YG down to $1,270 is a good long off that line but silver failed to hold $19.40 and fell all the way to $19.20 before bouncing (now $19.27) and I still like them long but scary to trade at $50 per penny!  

  19. Albo – Can't catch a break with FNSR! Down over 5% today after teasing us with a run to 21!

  20. /ES 2,000 SHOULD be bouncy – big trouble if it isn't.  Good place to take profits if you were short and then re-short if we get below.  2,000 lining up with 17,050, 4,085 and 1,175 so that's the next set we'd want to see breaking.  Oil $94.67 still.  Dollar 82.95.

  21. Markit: Final US August manufacturing PMI at 57.9 vs 58.0 preliminary reading

    Not that bad… Too bad the rest of the world sucks right now!

  22. Phil // YHOO
    Would you consider pocketing some of the cash from the YHOO spread and repositioning ?

  23. STJ- Not too surprising given forecasts for another quarter with margin pressure.  Still have my core position, and short some Jan 16 $15 puts from the last sell off.  Will look to add to put position if we get  further weakness when they report on Thursday.

  24. LQMT popping back to 0.25. 

    WYNN getting crushed, $187.  XOM taking a dip, not good for the Dow, hopefully XLE finally begins to fall. 


    DBA popping.  

    PMI/StJ – Ah, but if we're recovering and our Fed is tightening while the rest of the World is loosening, then the Dollar gets stronger and that puts pressure on our stock prices (in Dollar terms) as well as commodities.  Also makes our stocks and Dollar-based commodities seem expensive to foreign buyers.  

    • Dow -0.01% to 17,096.50. S&P +0.11% to 2,005.50. Nasdaq +0.29% to 4,593.68.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.59%. 10-yr -0.25%. 5-yr -0.13%.
    • Commodities: Crude -1.38% to $94.64. Gold -1.47% to $1,268.50.
    • Currencies: Euro -1.38% vs. dollar. Yen -2.4%. Pound -0.59%.

    July Construction Spending: +1.8% M/M to $981.3B, vs. +0.9% expected, -0.9% (revised from -1.8%) prior.

    • At issue as the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) touches a one-year low and the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) nears its weakest level of 2014 are expectations for the divergent paths of monetary policy. While the Fed is signaling a rise in interest rates by this point next year, the ECB is set to further ease policy this week and the BOJ isn't tightening any time soon.
    • Old news? CFTC data on futures positions show bearish bets against the euro have jumped to their highest level in more than two years, and those short the yen approaching peaks seen in 2013. Futures, of course, are a tiny slice of a vast foreign currency trading market.

    German auto sales forecast to have dipped in August

    • German auto sales declined by 0.5% in August, according to Reuters.
    • Official data from Germany is due to be released later in the day.

    Nikkei soars to 7-month high

    • Japanese shares soared today, led by exporters and the yen slipping to a seven-month low against the dollar. Traders said a planned cabinet reshuffle by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also supported sentiment.
    • The Nikkei hit a seven-month high, climbing 1.2% to 15,668.60. The Topix rose 1.1% to 1,297, while the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 gained 1.1% to 11,763.89.
    • Last night's 1.4% gain was led by military-related names amid speculation the government is set to boost defense spending after weekend comments from President Xi Jinping.
    • Over the weekend, China's HSBC PMI fell to a 3-month low of 50.2 in August, about inline with a preliminary read of 50.3. China's official PMI of 51.1 fell from July's 51.7 and came in vs. expectations of 51.2.

    Halliburton reaches $1.1B settlement on Macondo-related claims

    • Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) says it has agreed to settle a substantial majority of the plaintiffs’ class claims asserted against it due to the 2010 Macondo well incident in the Gulf of Mexico for ~$1.1B.
    • The settlement is subject to approval by the U.S. District Court for eastern Louisiana, and will be paid into a trust until all appeals have been resolved in three installments over the next two years.
    • HAL’s previously accrued loss contingency provision relating to the litigation proceedings totaled $1.3B.
    • HAL was accused by spill victims and BP of doing defective cementing work on the Macondo well before the Gulf spill; HAL blamed the incident on decisions by BP, which owned the well.
    • HAL +0.6% premarket.
    • Hedge funds reduced their longs in gold for the fourth week in five, sending their holdings to the lowest since June, according to CFTC data. Open interest in gold futures is the smallest in five years and assets in gold-related ETPs fell in August by the most since May, according to Bloomberg.
    • The lack of interest comes as a promising summer for the metal – at $1,250 per ounce on Memorial Day, it rose to $1,350 by July 4 – evaporated, with today's 1.4% decline taking the price to $1,270. The weak post-4th performance came even as geopolitical tensions ratcheted higher in Ukraine and Iraq, among other spots.
    • GLD -1.6% premarket
    • Ascent Solar (NASDAQ:ASTI) is selling $8M worth of shares to existing shareholders TFG Radiant (previous) and Seng Wei Seow.
    • The first tranche (already closed) involved issuing 845.3K shares apiece to TFG and Seow at a price of $2.366. The second tranche involves issuing 1.425M shares to TFG at $2.80. Ascent expects to hold a special investor meeting to vote on the second tranche.
    • TFG's stake in Ascent is up to 18.3% following the closing of the first tranche, and will reach 26.2% after the closing of the second.
    • Was the news leaked? Ascent skyrocketed on Friday ahead of the announcement. Shares have more than doubled over the last two trading days, leaving them well above the tranche prices.
    • Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) is teaming up with South Africa’s National Aerospace Center to jointly fund a research program by Hydrogen South Africa Systems into the use of fuel cells to power aircraft.
    • Airbus has identified hydrogen fuel cells as an emissions-free substitute to small gas turbine engines called Auxiliary Power Units (APUs), which have been used since the 1950's to generate on-board electrical power and heat while planes are on the ground.
    • Fuel cell technology aboard aircraft will lead to lower fuel burn due to a lighter aircraft and less consumption. Fuel cells will also result in an emission-free and low-noise aircraft operation and enable a plane to generate its own water supply.
    • Previously, Airbus tested flights using fuel cells to power individual emergency power systems, but has not yet experimented with the complete replacement of electrical power systems with a multi-functional fuel cell.

    Rousing upgrade on Tesla Motors from Stifel Nicolaus

    • Stifel Nicolaus upgrades Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) to a Buy rating and gives the EV automaker a $400 price target.
    • The investment firm walked away impressed from a factory tour and sees a run rate of 1,000 units per week by the end of the year as achievable.
    • The estimate for Tesla's 2017 EPS is lifted to $8.28 vs. $6.14 prior.
    • Stifel on momentum: "TSLA sentiment is like a freight train, in our view, benefiting from a well manicured growth story that has caught the eye of a much broader investor base relative to most auto stocks."
    • TSLA +2.8% premarket to $277.26.

    Darden Restaurants slips after updated guidance

    • Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRIupdates profit guidance after sizing up its traffic and sales trends for June through August.
    • The restaurant chain operator sees FY15 EPS of $2.22-$2.30 vs. $2.23 consensus.
    • Darden picked up some momentum in August as same-restaurant sales growth improved to 0.8% for the Olive Garden chain from -4.2% in July and to 3.2% for Longhorn Steakhouse from 1.5% the previous month.
    • DRI -1.6% premarket

    Smart buy: buys Harry & David brand

    • (NASDAQ:FLWSacquires Harry & David Holdings for $142.5M.
    • The company expects the addition of the well-known gift retailer to be immediately accretive to EBITDA and free cash flow.
    • FLWS +16.4% premarket

    Remember when a Billion Dollars seemed like a lot of money?  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings snaps up Prestige Cruises

    • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NASDAQ:NCLHsnaps up Prestige Cruises International for $3.025B.
    • Prestige operates eight ships under two different brands – Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises.
    • The company plans to finance the acquisition through existing cash and by tapping credit facilities. In addition, Norwegian will issue 20.3M new shares of common stock.
    • NCLH halted until 8:30 am ET.
    • P-E firm Thoma Bravo is buying Compuware (NASDAQ:CPWR) for $2.5B. The firm is paying $10.43/share in cash, and assigns a $0.67/share value to the distribution of Compuware's remaining Covisint (COVS +8.5%) shares. $0.18/share is deducted from the buyout price for tax payments related to the Covisint spinoff.
    • The deal ends a very lengthy sales process that reportedly saw several bids from P-E firms, and resulted in multiple activists getting involved. Elliott Management (9.5% stake) backs Thoma Bravo's bid.
    • Shares remain halted.
    • Earlier: Compuware reportedly in sale talks

    J & J artificial hip product liability trial set to begin

    • Jury selection begins for the first of some 6,000 product liability lawsuits facing Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) DePuy unit over its Pinnacle artificial hip. In the Dallas, TX trial, Plaintiff Kathleen Herlihy-Paoli alleges that the device's metal-on-metal design causes metal debris to leech into patients' bloodstreams causing infections that force many recipients to have them surgically removed.
    • The Pinnacle product is not covered by the company's earlier $2.5B settlement of claims related to its ASR hip devices after the firm recalled 93K of the ASR implants worldwide. J&J stated publicly that the five-year failure rate was only 12%, but internal documents showed the failure to be much higher at 37%. The failure rate in Australia was 44% within seven years. The $2.5B payment settled ~8,000 lawsuits.
    • Tests performed on Ms. Helihy-Paoli before she had both of her Pinnacle devices removed showed dangerously high levels of cobalt and chromium in her bloodstream. Her serum Cobalt level was 85x normal. When surgeons removed her implants they noted that the devices had turned black with metallosis.
    • Citing an insufficient Rapiacta royalty stream from partner Shionogi & Co. to pay accrued interest in arrears on the non-recourse PharRMA Notes by the September 1, 2014 payment date, a BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX -0.8%) subsidiary defaults on the debt.
    • Note holders may pursue acceleration of the notes, foreclose on the debt collateral and equity interest of the company in its wholly-owned subsidiary JPR Royalty Sub LLC and exercise other remedies. If they choose to pursue these actions future royalties from Shionogi may be at risk.
    • The company may also incur costs associated with retiring the notes and liquidating the related currency hedge agreement if the notes are retired.
    • BioCryst does not expect the situation to have a significant effect on its operations or cash flows.
    • With shares down 43% YTD and 24% since he downgraded them to Underperform on Feb. 21 (following weak Q1 guidance), RBC's Mark Mahaney has upgraded Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) to Sector Perform.
    • Mahaney cites the selloff, as well as major cuts to Street estimates, signs of operational progress, and positive takeaways from recent management talks. "The point for us is that the bar has been lowered, and we see forward EPS catalysts as now equally weighted positive and negative."
    • Following Mahaney's move, Groupon has 15 neutral sell-side ratings to go with 6 bullish ratings and a single bearish one (per Thomson/First Call). Shares go for just 1.25x 2015E sales; they were clobbered a month ago following a revenue miss and soft guidance.

    Apple partners with credit card companies for iPhone wallet

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is planning a new partnership with major payment networks, including Visa (NYSE:V), MasterCard (NYSE:MA) and American Express (NYSE:AXP) to transform the next iPhone into a mobile wallet, Bloomberg reports.
    • The announcement follows earlier reports that the iPhone 6 will feature NFC and support a mobile payments platform.
    • Along with a fingerprint recognition reader that debuted on the most recent iPhone, the NFC enabled device will be able to ensure secure payments.

  25. phil/TSLA, time to buy bull call spread to protect the Jan $275 short calls?  suggestions?  the 2016 $300/$350 are $15.50 and the $300/$400 are $24.50.

  26. Phil

    good morning

    looking at CLF at $14.79

    start selling puts here and wait for BCS?

    or, if we don't believe in the world manufacturing economies despite stimuli, pick a different stock?

    if you like CLF valuation here from a risk standpoint, please share.

  27. Cloud/StJ – That was my reason not to buy VMW, EMC et al for ages.  Stay away from Moore's Law affected businesses.   And, as to AMZN, this is NOT going to be a big source of revenue for them either – just another break-even feature they are essentially forced to offer.  AAPL is able to add unique synching features that are built into the device environment but I don't expect them to get much of a premium either – more likely they'll use it as a selling point for their devices.  

    TSLS/Rustle – Wow, what's the margin if we sell 10M of those for $5Bn?  I think I don't mind that risk..  Damn, I checked – ordinary margin is $28!  Are they freakin' crazy???  

    Wow, indexes popping right back up now – show ain't over yet folks…  Back to the original shorting lines.  

    YHOO/STP, $25KP, Wombat – We bought the Jan $38/45 bull call spread on 6/30 for $1.60 and now it's $2.60 for a nice 62% gain in 2 months but it's only "on track" to the full $7 we expect and that's another 275% to be gained.  So it was a 7-month play that was supposed to earn 337% and, so far, it's up 62% – I think it's a bit early to be getting out – especially as my original premise is exactly what's happening:

    YHOO/Albo – Why not just buy YHOO?  YHOO is $35Bn and owns 22% of AliB while SFTBY is $91Bn and owns 33% of AliB, so you get a lot more bang for your buck with YHOO, whose forward p/e is only 19, than SFTBY, whose forward p/e is about 17 – so not all that significant.  Of course, more significantly is the potential impact of (guessing) $50Bn worth of AliB on a $35Bn company!  

    So we don't even have to go crazy if we want to play the "YHOO is undervalued" game.  The Jan $38/45 bull call spread is $1.60 on the $8 spread with 400% upside if YHOO gains 28%.  I think that's worth $800 for 5 shares in the $25KP (stop at $400) and $4,800 for 30 in the STP with a stop at $2,400.

    TSLA/Lunar – Argh, I hate that idea as I so don't believe in these guys but you are right, we can't let it get away from us.  Let's see if they can take $280 out as we're short 7 Jan $275 calls at $21 in the STP so no real panic yet. 

    CLF/Maya – Global manufacturing is in the toilet so I imagine iron ore rates will stay low and shipping rates are low so competition from overseas can hurt CLF so I don't think I'd rush into a new trade on them just now.  If the VIX were higher and we could get more for the puts, then yet, but not so attractive at the moment.  With oil below $95, you can bet there's no comeback in base metals either.  

  28. Phil/CLF

    whats a little troubling is that they have shown no ability to bounce since they topped out at approx 87 in 2011.

    a fundamental company problem or more permanent issues with their product demand/cost of acquisition?

  29. Nice move in SPLS & ODP.

  30. GILD 108.  Dang.

  31. TOS is freaking out

  32. wombat – yes it is

  33. Wombat stop placing so many orders on TSLA  TOS can not handle it all!!!

  34. Pre-Market

    Dr. John L. Faessel 

    Quote of the day

     “I do believe that central banks that believe they can quell bubbles are living in a state of unrealism. Gross domestic savings and capital investment as a share of GDP have declined significantly in recent years. It is the cause of the slowdown in productivity growth and standards of living. Until we come to grips with that, it is going to be difficult to get the economy moving in a sustainable way.”

    ~ Alan Greenspan ~




    A Mature Bull Market

    Hello September and that’s usually a down month in the S&P 500 (SPX).


     No ‘Official’ Dow Theory Confirmation Yet? 

    Both the Dow 30 and the Dow Transports have NOT ticked new highs. Once again emphasize ‘YET.’

    Last week most of the major averages continued their advance on ‘still’ decreasing and well below average volume.

     The McClellan Oscillator is in ‘high-ish’ Neutral at a plus 128.

     Consumer confidence [CCI] had the highest read since 2007 at 92.4.

     Bullish sentiment is accelerating again. See Sentiment overview below.*

     The USA stock Markets are in a well-established solid up-trend – but note the narrowing of the high / low channel perimeters.

    EuroLand Deflation and a Decoupling with the USA

    The Euro zone is in a stall and I wonder how it will proceed? Recall two years ago when ‘all’ was not well there – save Germany. And now even Germany is teetering to a degree with business confidence ebbing and growth is at a standstill. Geopolitical tensions are boiling in EuroLand. Debt-to-GDP ratios are higher than two years ago, euro-zone unemployment is flat, compared with last year, and there is a risk of outright deflation. The lack of growth in Germany, France and Italy, its three biggest economies, is placing a cap on euro-area growth that no amount of reform-led growth in countries such as Spain, Ireland and Portugal can overcome.

    Mr. Draghi's self-proclaimed willingness to embark on a large-scale government bond-buying program, which German officials warn will inevitably be challenged in the constitutional court.

    This morning the 10-year German bund yield is in record – low sub MINUS 1% territory, yielding 0.89%. Last Thursday the 10-year German Bund yield hit an all-time low of 0.87%.

     Average yields on investment-grade debt worldwide dropped to a record low 2.45% from 3.4% a year ago. $500 billion a year in debt is coming due between 2018 and 2020. Flat growth in the Eurozone and France and negative growth in Germany – down 0.2% Q over Q and Japan down 1.7% Q over Q has stoked fears of a global slowdown and perhaps deflation. Longer dated yields press to lowest levels in over a year.

     And in the USA

    A key U.S. inflation gauge released Friday by the Commerce Department showed prices up just 1.6% in July from a year earlier. That was below the Fed's 2% inflation target for the 27th straight month, giving Fed officials plenty of latitude to move cautiously in raising interest rates from near zero.

    More On The Jobs Mess

    The unemployment rate slipped to 6.1% in June its lowest level in 6-years. However, the percentage of adult American workers who are actually in the workforce is at its lowest level in 36 years, with no rebound in sight. And worse yet – the labor-force participation rate of men ages 25 to 54 fell to 66-year lows with nearly one prime-age male out of eight, an average of 7.3 million, having opted out of the labor force in any given month.

    S&P 500 

     The S&P 500 (SPX) closed on Friday at 2003.37.  Last week it was at 1988.40. 

     The still advancing 50-day moving average support is now at 1966

    Short term support is at (SPA) 1990 / 1985 / 1980 /

    Channel and trend line support off the November 2012 lows is 1924.

    Back in time term price support of S&P 500 (SPX) 1941/ 1928 and >>> 1904 / 1864 / 1850 /

    The 200-day moving average support is at S&P 500 (SPX) 1878.

     Fibonacci 38.2% retracement support is at 1922.

    The 50% retracement support is at 1902.

    And the critical 61.8% retracement support is at 1882.

     * This Week’s Investor Sentiment overview

     Last week’s overview of Bullish sentiment is quickening again with the market recent advance.

    (High BULLISH readings in the Investor Sentiment are usually signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.)

    ·        Investor's Intelligence Bull vs. Bears for the week ended August 26th shows bullishness at 52.5% vs. 15.1% bearish. The previous week it was 49.5% bullish vs. 16.2% bearish.

      The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII] Investor Sentiment Survey of BULLISHNESS climbed to 51.9% from the prior week’s 46.1% that’s. Three-weeks

     Eight-months ago it ticked 55.1%, the highest posting in the prior eleven-months. It posted cycle lows of 22.2% on 7/23/2012 the lowest since August 2010. Long-Term Average: Bullish: 39.0%.

    ·        The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII] Investor Survey of BEARISHNESS fell to 19.2% from 23.7% the prior week.

     Eight-months ago it registered the lowest Bearishness read since 1/12/2012 at 17.6%. Long-Term Average: Bearish: 30.5%.

    ·        This week the Consensus Index of BULLISH sentiment added a few percentiles to 0.68% from the prior weeks 65%. Four weeks before that it was 73%.

    The cycle and multi-year highs of 78% were established 27-weeks ago that topped the top of 77% Bullish posted on 10/11/2007.

    ·        The Citigroup “Panic / Euphoria” Model remained in the NEUTRAL zone at a plus 0.36. Four- weeks ago it was in the Euphoria zone at plus 0.50.

    The Citigroup model had first slipped into Neutral in mid-April.  It first went Euphoric last November after languishing in the neutral or panic modes since April 2008.  In early 2000 it ticked its all-time high at plus 0.72. At the end of June, 2011 it ticked cycle lows of minus 0.31 in the Panic mode.

    ·        The Market Vane (Market Letter Survey) sentiment added one ticks to 66% from the prior week’s 65%. In October 2007 it topped at 70% bullish.

    ·        The Market Vane (Market Letter Survey) sentiment added a tick to 60% from the prior week’s 59%. In October 2007 it topped at 70% bullish.

    Friday’s key indicators and metrics

    ·        McClellan Oscillator is in Neutral at plus 128

    ·        VIX – 11.98

    ·        3-month $USD LIBOR – 0.23360 – Link  here  

    ·        CBOE Put / Call Volume Ratio – 0.96

    ·        Natural Gas (Globex) – 4.065 

    ·        Swiss Franc  – Cycle and 10-month lows of 1.0889

    ·        US Dollar Index – Cycle and 13-month highs of 82.783

    ·        Euro – Cycle and 12-month lows of 1.3135

    ·        Japanese Yen – just off Cycle and 6-month lows at 0.9606

    ·        Canadian Dollar – 0.9195

    ·        Aussie Dollar – 0.9325

    ·        Crude oil (NYMEX) – 95.96

    ·        On Thursday crude ticked 95.3

    ·        Brent crude 103.17

    ·        Copper (Globex) – 3.1605

    ·        Platinum (Globex)  – 1424.7

    ·        Palladium (Globex) – 908.65

    ·        Gold (Globex) – 1287.5

    ·        Silver (COMEX) – 19.492 

    ·        The Treasury 5-year yield – 1.62

    ·        The Treasury 10-year yield – 2.34 – cycle highs were in December at 3.01%

    ·        The 30-year Treasury – 3.08% – cycle highs were in December at 3.93%

  35. Jabo-according to that stifel document you sent, it says."according to management, we believe the current wait for a new model S is 4-5 monts"

    here is a post from the tesla forum on August 27

    "I keep getting earlier delivery dates. Ordered 7 August. Confirmed 9 August. At the time it said delivery In ate November, which is what I wanted. Right after I confirmed it said late October. Today I see it is late September.  Funnily enough, I emailed my delivery person after I confirmed saying I wouldn't be ready for it in October, not sure why it keeps getting earlier"

    Total BS!

  36. yodi // tsla
    they're just naked calls Yodi. i took the first three numbers of my social security for good luck.

  37. Suerte

  38. This is the takeaway I get from the Stifel Report:

    Stifel research analysts receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) Stifel's overall investment banking revenues.

    Notice it's not performance of their analysts.  Think there's a conflict there.

  39. Phil – The M1 money supply is falling while the M2 is rising. What is your take on the implications (if any) of this phenomenon? Thanks!

  40. TSLA Norway

    Heard over the weekend that they have an EV problem or several. Tax collected down, parking spaces being filled free, bus lanes clogged, and only mentioned free charging.

  41. Phil/GLD,SLV and PNRA,

    All at support level? Any good plays here?

    Thanks as always

  42. TQQQ/Phil – TQQQ puts getting clobbered. you still like these for cover? any adjustment on this peak?

  43. Now we seem to have a genuine dollar breakout…

    There is confluence zone between 83 and 83.50 so  some resistance is expected in between! But the dollar was at 80 back in early July. We are up close to 4% in less than 60 days. Pretty impressive for a currency.

  44. CLF/Maya – Keep in mind that companies like CLF or X never should have had those kind of valuations in the first place – just bubble mania at the time.  X topped out at $180 in mid-2008, up from a just as ridiculous $100 the year before and a pretty ridiculous $60 the year before that (see TSLA or NFLX for current example of this kind of investor idiocy in progress).  

    Yes, that time it was going to be different and all us naysayers would see how wrong we were because China this and India that – only it wasn't.  CLF went fro $40 to $120 but the strange thing about CLF is they went back to $100 again after the crash in 2011.  Just because they weren't worth $100 doesn't mean they aren't worth $20 – it's all a matter of timing – that's why they call them cyclicals!  

    Big Wheeee again in progress – same shorts as usual.

    TSLA/Jabob – Thanks!  

    TOS says to restart if you have glitches, by the way. 

    Faessel/Rustle – I hate it when people talk about inflation data as if it's real.  Notice that electric data I put up in my first comment.  Up 11% in the northeast yet it doesn't officially count as inflation because food and energy don't matter.  Cost of college also doesn't matter and, if you get an IPhone with 64Gig for the same price as one with 32Gig last year, that's considered 50% DEflation by the Government.  It's a total crap number and shouldn't be referred to by serious economists.  

    Money supply/Diamond – Well M1 is "physical money", coins and currency, as well as demand deposits (bank accounts) while M2 includes money markets, CDs, mutual funds, etc.  I don't know how severe the change is you are referring to but it's not very meaningful other than the obvious that people are running out of disposable income (cash in hand) – which is a trend we've been noting for ages.  

    Oil heading to $93!  What a crazy day.  

    Norway/Shadow – The demand over there is totally artificial as wealthy people took full advantage of Government regs that were meant to encourage EV usage.  Rather than ordinary people buying EVs, a bunch of rich people bought TSLAs and paid no taxes and now get to ride in all the commuter lanes.  It's been a huge part of TSLA's "demand" story – one that won't last or be repeated (unless Musk bribes the right people in China).

    PNRA/Pat – Not sure what PNRA has to do with gold or silver but I like them all down here, though not this week with the market maybe toppy.  We have a GLL play on the Buy List that's in a good position, that's the one I would trigger if you're looking for one of those 3 despite the market chop.  

    TQQQ/Scott – Was that an official trade?  I don't think we have them in a portfolio but I know on 8/25 we talked about the Jan $87.50/75 bear put spread at $4.75 when they were $88.27.  Now it's a week later and TQQQ is at $89.16 and the spread is $4.50 so I guess we have very different definitions of "clobbered".  If your broker is showing your crappy bid/ask numbers – then the only way you can really lose is to lock them in by panicking out of a 145-day position with 136 days left. 

    Now we'll see if /ES can re-take 2,000 from below.  1,996 was the bottom.  /TF held 1,172, /NQ 1,996 and /YM 17,045 so far. 

  45. EXEL / qcmike – Add this one to my unending list of biotech fails lately, the only ones that go up are the ones I paper trade like ITMN (Pharmboy's trade idea  said "Gonna paper this one, but I like the play.")  

    My buying premise on EXEL was Ohad Hammer, good biotech guy who owns it and said last fall "EXEL is starting to get more recognition after a year of flying under the radar. I feel comfortable…". If you don't follow him he has a new posting about EXEL today here.

  46. Phil – sent you an e-mail

  47. Phil – Yes, I understand what M1 & M2 are. The current divergence is not severe (see link), but I wanted to get your perspective on what it might mean regarding the market in the near future.  Thanks!

  48. mrmocha 

     Thanks for the information, At this point just hanging in there to see where the dust settles

  49. Who would ever have thought, after only 15 years we would be partying like 1999 again. Then it was dot.coms with no proof of a real valuation and now we have TSLA, AMZN, and the rest of the MOMOs.

    This time is different though, the world is in much more debt, interest rates what interest, and currency wars to the bottom.

  50. TLT with a whopping collapse from 119.40 to 117.12 since Friday – huge move for them in such a short time.


    Thanks Chas!   She signed up for a free trial of Stock World Weekly.

    You're welcome Diamond. 

    Oh nooooooooooooooo!  Things are really breaking down now – TQQQ looking good now, isn't it?   cheeky

    1999/Shadow – For those of us preserving capital – it is going to be a party! 

  51. TQQQ / Phil

    The official 25KP play is a Sept 86/80 bear put spread.  You suggested rolls after that point but there was no change made to the official play as far as I know.

  52. This TOS thing is ridiculous.  I don't even trust the charts right now, and they always pick the worst days to crap out, seems like the platform has been getting buggier and buggier lately.

  53. Webinar Time (15 mins!) – Log in HERE.

    Event Number: 666 986 327 (not needed by most) 

  54. TQQQ – thanks JPH. that is what I am looking at.  I did roll some to October last week.

  55. SQQQ – Jan 40/45 call spread also down ~35%. yes, an insurance hedge that is supposed to lose money, but how far can they fall before become too weak to really help?

  56. Phil // DIS
    Butterfly – 17 days 
    When would you take action on this ?

  57. Digging through the ISM numbers:

    This month's reading of 64.5 for the Production component was the best since May 2010, while the New Orders component rose to 66.7; that was the best reading for that component since April 2004!  On the downside, the only three components that saw m/m declines were Supplier Deliveries, Employment (just a slight decline), and Prices Paid.  Finally, on a y/y basis this month's report also saw broad based strength with eight out of ten components showing accelerating rates of growth.

  58. Quote of the day:

    Patrick O’Shaughnessy, “Predictions are everywhere in investing (price targets, GDP forecasts, S&P 500 earnings, EPS estimates, and so on), but they are usually worthless.”  (Millennial Invest)

  59. A few words and phrases that should be excommunicated: 'wheeee'; breaking down, looses. 'Wheee' is more expected from six year old children in the playground than adults. For those of us with long positions, we do not need to be reminded that red lights are flashing across our TOS screens. I have a mind to ring up the Department of Education in the United States and ask them to devote 15 minutes of the first class next Monday to explain the correct use of lose and loose. If the writer would like to explain the fact that they lost a significant fortune. or that they loosened the gordian knot that was understandably tied around their neck that is fine. But the last cowboy that was loosing (sic) a fortune has yet to be found. And by the way, you're stands for you are and not the second person possessive form. 

    If people are as sloppy in their trading as their use of language –  time for reflection :)

  60. STJ, this probably accounts for part of the weakness in FNSR :

    "Ahead of Thursday's FQ1 report, Jefferies' James Kisner has downgraded Finisar (FNSR -6.2%) to Hold, and cut his target by $6 to $19."

    STJ, this analyst has been consistently wrong on FNSR.  On January 18, 2013, he posted the following.

    "Kisner placed a 12-month target price of $7.50 a share, down from $14."   Stock posted a high of $26 in October 2013.

  61. Good article about the effect of stock buybacks:


    For three decades I’ve been studying how the resource allocation decisions of major U.S. corporations influence the relationship between value creation and value extraction, and how that relationship affects the U.S. economy. From the end of World War II until the late 1970s, a retain-and-reinvest approach to resource allocation prevailed at major U.S. corporations. They retained earnings and reinvested them in increasing their capabilities, first and foremost in the employees who helped make firms more competitive. They provided workers with higher incomes and greater job security, thus contributing to equitable, stable economic growth—what I call “sustainable prosperity.”

    This pattern began to break down in the late 1970s, giving way to a downsize-and-distribute regime of reducing costs and then distributing the freed-up cash to financial interests, particularly shareholders. By favoring value extraction over value creation, this approach has contributed to employment instability and income inequality.

    And Josh's take:

    You may not agree with all of Lazonick’s points or his prescriptions for a better way forward, but I guarantee this piece will change the way you think about how markets are currently working and whom they’re actually working for.

  62. Thanks Albo… Hopefully, wrong again!

    Although, selling Jan 16 15 puts would work great of they stick around 19 :-)

  63. DGLY – Classic example of a short squeeze on a thin stock, when there are no shares to borrow.  Wish they had options.

  64. Winston- "whee" indeed. Your a bit of a lose canon today. 

  65. Phil – I understand what QE is and its mechanics, but I am still working on strengthening my understanding of financial fundamental interrelationships. 

    In your opinion, when QE stops, what effect will that have on M1?

  66. Also out today on The fly on the wall :

    FNSR Finisar shares defended at Raymond James
    Raymond James defended shares of Finisar with the stock down today on the heels of a downgrade at Jefferies. The firm says it likes the stock into Thursday's earnings results and has a Strong Buy rating on the name.

    Prob overkill on this stock today.  I apologize.

  67. Hopefully, these guys are right Albo…

  68. EXEL…too bad.  Lots of competition in the prostate market.  I have a small allotment of the stock with a covered call, and not down my much.  ARIA is the one that is getting more intersting again.  ACHN and ICPT are two more that they are calling for buyouts, but I don't see it right now.  Maybe I am wrong….RCPT I can see being picked up…IF their MS drug is what it is touted to be.

  69. GWPH….zoom zoom….skid, crash….

  70. GALT….flush.


    I have AAPL in the LT portfolio, and doing well. I shorted Oct 100 Call @$3.13 and think it is time to roll up and out. Would welcome your opinion.

  72. I have a hard time right now recommending biotechs.  I said they would come back to earth, and it is happening.  I don't like investing in the sector right now for most stocks.  There are a few….but we need to be very cognizant of the pipeline potential and the reimbursement rates.  It is all about how much pharma will be paid back on their investment.  Me too drugs are things of the past.

  73. UNP/pwright – making another new high. tempted to open a Jan/Nov 100/105 call spread for $4.15 with a stop at close under 102. tempted…

  74. scottmi re: UNP, I'd have to think the risk-reward on that would be pretty good, and with the stop your losses are limited.

    I'm in a spot where most of my margin is sort of "mentally allocated" toward some trades I might want to make when the timing is right.  So in order to make that trade I'd need to either limit those options or close something else, which keeps me from wanting to do it at the moment.  But if I had the spare cash / margin, it looks like a pretty good shot with them up here above 106.

  75. FU TSLA!!!!!

  76. TASR may go from my biggest loser to biggest winner in less than a month.

  77. Education:

    Amazing explanation of mechanics, why mediocre rich kids are more likely to get "merit" scholarship then talented poor kids!

  78. Winston – Lessons in grammar? ….. Seriously?…..

  79. Not too much damage on the dips, RUT almost back to 1,180 again.

    Dollar over 83, TLT failing 117, VIX 12.43 

    Insurance/Scott – Well, we added the SQQQ spread on 8/4 and on 8/1 the LTP was at $588,000 and the STP was at $134,000 for a total of $722,000.  We adjusted the MIX by adding SQQQ in order to continue to leave our bullish positions on through an uncertain time and now, a month later, the STP is at $130,000 and the LTP is at $612,000 for a total of 742,000 – up $20,000 as a set (2.7%).  Not only that but we have moved the SQQQ calls to Jan, so we have 3 additional months of protection.

    SQQQ is at $35 and we have 40 Jan $35 calls.  If the Nasdaq crashes and drops 10%, then SQQQ goes up 30% to $45 and those 40 calls would be $40,000 – that's a $10,000 insurance policy – hopefully we don't need it and it expires worthless while our long positions make another $80,000 in the next 4 moths as the premium we sold continues to decay.  

    DIS/Butterfly, Wombat – Probably about 10 days before.  

    Wheeeee!/Winston – Some of us are shorting the Futures and love those little dips and some of us are parents and uncles who still play snakes and ladders and have a lot of use for "wheeee!" (as well as in little piggies going home – that's 3 wheeee!s).  As to loose – what the Hell are you talking about?  I doubt that was me but, if so, please say where.  Anyway, if you are so bullish that it bothers you when we say "wheeeee!" – you are WAY too bullish at this stage of the market – worry more about cashing out and balancing your portfolio than what idioms people are using. 

    Prosperity/StJ – Very good article.  Too bad no one will heed the warning.  

    DGLY – Great call by RevTodd last week!  

    Not so much by me, I thought TASR was a safer choice. As DGLY was smaller, same news had a way bigger impact:

    Digital Ally says camera inquiries up five-fold after Ferguson shooting

    At least TASR is getting something out of it too:

    QE/Diamond – No effect on M1, M1 is how much money Treasury has printed and how much people have deposited into banks.  The Fed can't take that away though Treasury can, sort of, take money out of circulation if they feel the need.  I don't understand the concern, it's not a very meaningful indicator of anything.  

    EXEL/Pharm – Was that their one shot? 

    AAPL/Zten – If you roll now and they pop on the announcement, will it hurt you less?  If you roll now and they fail on the announcement, will it benefit you more?  I think this run anticipate a very good announcement next week, it's a dice roll.  If you are too worried to stay put, you should get out or reduce, rolling won't help. 

    TASR/RJ – Very exciting to own, isn't it?  

    Education/Lol – For profit education is another great sin of this country.  

  80. As the Man says: PSW " High Finance For Real People – FUN and PROFITS"


    nuff said….

  81. Holy cow, 3:30 already!  These Webinar days really fly.  

    Macau stocks slide as growth story hits a roadblock

    • Gaming sector analysts think tighter restrictions on travel VISAs cut into revenue for the VIP segment, and to a lesser extent, the mass market segment during August.
    • Though a recovery is expected around the Golden week holiday in October, the sluggish growth trend could continue until 2015 as Macau travel growth remains under pressure.
    • Macau casino stocks: Melco Crown (NASDAQ:MPEL) -5.0%, Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF) -2.0%, Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) -5.2%, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) -4.6%, MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) -3.0%.

    I like that – here's my comments on WYNN that led to our short play:

    Submitted on 2014/04/22 at 10:26 am

    LOL, MORE FREE MONEY saves Macau Casinos:  

    • Macau-related casino stocks rip higher as sentiment leans back toward the sector seeing relatively smooth credit terms for the VIP segment. The sector has been sensitive to any signs of a credit slowdown from Chinese banks that could impact traffic to Macau by junket operators.
    • Gainers: Melco Crown (MPEL) +6.5%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) +5.0%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN) +4.7%, MGM Resorts (MGM) +4.1%.

    Submitted on 2014/05/02 at 12:21 pm

    Now, back to WYNN – It was a good Q with $2.32 in earnings, 14.3% better than last year.  Estimates were for $2.11, so a 10% beat.  I don't like the fact that they are "adjusted" earnings, which exclude the opening costs of their new Macau hotel.  Why wouldn't they also exclude the opening revenues, since more people come to big openings so, that too should be tossed out….  Las Vegas revenues declined so it's all Macau for Wynn and heavily relying on the fact (as I keep saying) that they have a new hotel there and people like new things.  

    Table games win in the mass market category was $300.7 million, up 23.7% year over year. Moreover, the mass market table games win rate was 43.4%, higher year over year as well as sequentially.

    That's the kind of thing that can turn around as luck is not consistent.

    Table games turnover in the VIP segment went up 26.7% from the prior-year period to $36.0 billion due to an improvement in the market. Though VIP table games win rate (based on turnover) of 2.79% was below the year-ago level of 3.14%, it was within the expected range of 2.7% to 3.0%.

    So they were LUCKY in the mass-market segment.  

    Wynn Resorts’ revenues from Las Vegas operations declined 1.5% year over year to $380.9 million due to weak casino revenues. Net casino revenues declined 11.9% from the prior-year period to $155.3 million. Table games win percentage was 20.7%, lower than 26.7% in the prior-year quarter as well the expected range of 21.0% to 24.0%.

    However, room revenues were up 12.6% to $103.1 million, thanks to improved average daily rate and occupancy rate. During the quarter, RevPAR was up 12.6%, benefiting from a 500 bps increase in occupancy rate and a 6.2% rise in ADR. In the first quarter, EBITDA margin declined 210 bps to 29.0%.

    I think there's no doubt that WYNN is a solid casino operator with great strength and they have another $4Bn casino coming on line in 2016 but, at the moment, they have a current p/e of 26, which means they need to earn $8.30 per share this year and they are on-track for that per this Q (excluding items), but that's only up 15% from $7.24 last year and 10% from $6.60 the year before.  

    This is where the law of large numbers kicks in because adding one casino to 3 makes for easy 30% growth but adding one casino to 4 only leads to 25% growth, etc.  So it will be very hard for WYNN, long-term, to keep people happy with a 20+ p/e, – especially since casinos do have bad luck and miss once in a while (WYNN missed by 4% in the June Q last year and fell about 20%.  They topped out at $250 in March so I'm not anxious to short them at $220 but I would love to get short on them again between $220 and $250.  

    Best to wait until next week, though. 

    Submitted on 2014/05/29 at 3:20 pm

    Combination/Pat – Generally I try to think of what I would do if a stock drops 20% on me and, if it's uncomfortable with 5, I'll try 4, 3, etc.  Since July is pre-earnings, I know we have Aug to roll to and they should have high premiums because of earnings so I don't feel the need to drop to 3 contracts, which would be very easy to roll along anyway.  Yes, you are overthinking.  For one thing, that's why I set stops, for another thing, I don't see a near-term catalyst that will drop WYNN since they just announced Macau numbers last week so it's another month before there's more data on that front – so I'm not expecting a big move down soon but, even if we drop 10% to $200, we only owe the short callers $10 and we have a spread we paid $12.70 for that would be $30 in the money by then for $15,000 vs $4,000 owed on the short puts – not much damage, even without stopping or rolling.  

    Also, for the 50 dma to move one point lower than 210, WYNN would have to be at 205 for 10 days or 200 for 5 days.  That's why we use those lines – they don't just jump around with any sudden move the stock makes.  

    See, good old-fashioned Fundamentals eventually kick in but you have to have a little conviction to ride these things out.  They're not momentum plays (though we could have done well playing that $200/220 channel) – it was a Fundamental outlook that $220 was unsustainable and led us to make bearish calls when they strayed too high in the channel.  

    It's also a good example of playing a stock and a sector we have been following for years – it's so much easier to see a good trading opportunity when you are in familiar territory. 

  82. Phil – I am  just trying to understand the finance game that is currently being played globally. The media has tried to push the meme that when QE stops the market will tank, but I am not in that camp because I believe that there are still many other moves that can (and will) be made.

  83. Phil – Inflation? Fugetaboutit!!!

    On Friday, Arthur Hill ( posted a TIP/TLT chart. Correlation = minus .99 to TLT.

  84. Phil – Nicely done on WYNN !

  85. Anyone,

    A couple weeks back someone posted a website out in Washington that sold and supported computer systems. I need to go after a desktop with some horsepower and supporting 4 screens. I am looking at AAPL too! Thanks for a prompt reply.

  86. Phil/TASR

    I am in them because of the moat they are building. Many companies can make a camera and I suspect they will. The police departments that citizens seem reluctant to fund will probably have a hard time funding cameras after this sudden interest dies down. What matters to me is the Taser brand awareness. Everyone knows what a Taser is. The cartridges the weapons fire cost anywhere from $25 to $50 every time one is fired. Can you imagine being the manufacturer of every bullet any police department fires. You do have to practice a Taser also and the practice cartridge appears to have a similar cost (my pricing quotes are based on pricing from the Taser website).

  87. If I start jumping in at 12:30 to catch the spike up, will they stop doing it?

  88. Snow – I think Dave from ETF Digest calls it the 2:15 buy program express…..with ZIRP.  Market shorting is brutal.

  89. Jasu1 – I believe the manufacturer is Puget Systems ( 

  90. Gwph is such fun-reminds me of tsla. Like riding a bucking bronco, but more fun (& less injury's).

  91. EXEL / qcmikehere's one guy that says don't bail on EXEL, although I will be bailing anyway, the small bios have been heart (and bank) breakers for the past year.

  92. Moves/Diamond – One problem is QE is a big catch-phrase for Central Bank Stimulus.  CBs can generally use POMO, adjust reserve requirements, adjust the discount window and, in some cases, make outright asset purchases – as ours has been doing.  The "QE" that's tapering is their asset purchases of bonds but, as I mentioned this morning, the dollar is strong and people WANT to buy our bonds – the Fed doesn't need to step in and buy them – especially with Obama chopping the deficit in half, so we don't need to sell as many either.  

    When rates rise, THAT will have a huge impact.  That is not totally in the Fed's control because other countries may have trouble attracting investors and raise their rates and then our Corporations, then our Cities and States and finally the Federal Government will have to offer higher rates to sell competitive bonds.  There's little the Fed can do to stop rising rates when they rise globally.  

    Thanks Albo – It's good to review those trade ideas once in a while to remind people what kind of time-frames these trades operate in. 

    TASR/RJ – If they want them to be used more, they do need to come down in cost a bit but I agree, they are the Coke of the sector and will be extremely hard to replace and, in fact, advertising of competitors at this stage only serves to build more awareness for the products in general, which TASR benefits from.  

    Does anyone remember STYS?  

    TASR – I love this new order. No BS, just an order for 3,000 guns. That’s why they are my stock of the centrury – barring a competitor totally beating them out, there simply won’t be any regular guns used by police in 20 years and that’s 12M global police officers that need to be equipped in the next two decades.

    Also – remember when I kept telling you how TASR was suffering a PR attack (now known as a hyena attack) led by stinger in Jan as they released a series of outrageous press releases? Well now the SEC has filed a LAWSUIT against Stinger for “a series of material misrepresentations and omissions regarding Stinger’s ‘flagship’ stun gun product,” as well as the company itself, including misrepresentations about the gun’s production and availability, an Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms “certification,” and that Stinger traded on the Nasdaq.”


    I will restate my TASR premise while they are again cheap: The fact that there are non-lethal ways to stop criminals effectively will lead to lawsuits against police departments who use guns, which will eventually be labeled “cruel and unusual” punishment. This will force police departments to switch over the bulk of their force and then stun guns will spread like a virus, the same way that handguns replaced rifles and rifles replaced crossbows and crossbows replaced long bows which replaced spears….

    An order for 3,000 guns is at least $1.5M, possibly $3M or about 5% of last year’s sales. If they ship in Q1, they should give them a neat double over the prior quarter to report in May.

    The ’10 $12.50s are $4 and you can collect 10% by selling 1/2 the Mar $12.50s at .85. The roll to the $10s costs $1 so after just 2 sales you are pretty much covered or you can start with the $10s and fully cover and simply buy more leaps if it starts going up as you will be well protected by the calls you already sold. XXX

    Submitted on 2008/05/13 at 10:35 am

    TASR – Stinger is nothing more than a shell company that manipulators use to knock down TASR’s stock.  They were a real attempt at competition at one time but they have been taken over by guys who do nothing but slap TASR with lawsuits while they short their stock.  Just one of the many amazing things people get away with in the markets.  Note that these cases are being thrown out without a hearing – they are totally groundless!


    TASR got zapped by JPM downgrqade, very oddly after winning a patent case against Stinger on Friday and also on Friday getting 2 orders for about 3,000 units.  I think Q1 is going to be shy of estimates becase a lot of police forces have budget problems and have delayed orders but if the economy is recovering so wonderfully – what could JPM be worried about?   JPM upgraded them in Nov at $4.50 and now they put them to Neutral at $5.50 so I guess this is the range they see.  The 200 DMA is $5.12 so I think this is a fine place to enter.  The Jan $2.50/5 bull call spread is $1.90 and if you can pair that with the sale of the $5 puts for $1 (now .85) or even .90, that’s a very nice spread.  Best way to initiate is offer to sell the puts for $1 and, once that fills, then look to fill the spread

    Jumping/Snow – That's usually how it works.  sad

    Gasoline down 3% today too – ouch!  

  93. jasu1

    These guys know a lot, more than any walk in store and you can call 800-800-8300 I would build you better for less.

  94. LOL, /ES at 2,000.00 at the bell – what a save!  

  95. Eric S, Shadow….Thanks

  96. jasu1

    Biggest advantage when built is no teaser ware or leads to selling what they have to sell instead of the best.

  97. Pretty big purchases after the bell, likely funds catching up and that usually doesn't follow at open and now down a little.

  98. Jasu – I've recommended Puget Systems a few times. Love my machine from them (from their silent series). They are a custom build shop. No bloat ware and they benchmark, tune and test all components of the system they make for you--and stand by them with a team of support techs that offer free, unlimited support. 2+ years after getting my box from them, they walked me through a windows 8.1 install (replacing Win 7). I'm pretty technical and was very impressed with the support staff's knowledge, ability and follow up. It's a first class company.  And no, I have no fiscal interest in the company. Just very happy with them.

  99. My son ordered me all the components & I had a tech guy come & put it all together-works great & has fantastic memory. Windows 10 professional. The company was Corsair? All wholesale &  excellent.

  100. systems/ Shadow: Now I think that's a fabulous idea for a business… you can offer your services to build high performance machines for traders… and start with members on our site.  While many of us know how to build a good basic system, I'll bet you could build it faster, more reliable, more more powerful and build in privacy functions, wh/ I know you are a stickler about.

    If someone isn't too inclined to contribute to your better health fund, maybe they could help by patronizing a new business… it would be mutually beneficial..   :)

  101. pirate / Windows 10

    Then your PC is a “back-to-the-future” system ;-)

  102. Computer / Jasu – You could also look at a gaming laptop for some flexibility. I have a machine from MSI – you can hook up 2 more screens with 2 mini display port and 1 HDMI port. In addition to the laptop screen of course (so 3 screens). It's only my backup machine, but it's almost as powerful as a desktop rig and much more portable if needed!

    That laptop is really thin – almost as thin as my kid's MacBook but much more powerful!

  103. Ukraine – real or PR stunt?

  104. Knock, Kno..BANG!

    "Louise said that after the experience, her view of law enforcement has changed dramatically."

    *(better put a password on your home internet)

  105. Phil TQQQ

    Any comment on the 25kp position?

  106. History lesson of the day:

    I didn't know enough about Hamilton apparently

    Hamilton was alone among the “founding fathers” in understanding that the world was witnessing two revolutions simultaneously. One was the political transformation, embodied in the rise of republican government. The other was the economic rise of modern capitalism, with its globalizing networks of production, trade, and finance. Hamilton grasped the epochal importance of applied science and machinery as forces of production.

    In the face of these changes, Hamilton created (and largely executed) a plan for government-led economic development along lines that would be followed in more recent times by many countries (particularly in East Asia) that have undergone rapid industrialization. His political mission was to create a state that could facilitate, encourage, and guide the process of economic change — a policy also known as dirigisme, although the expression never entered the American political lexicon the way its antonym, laissez-faire, did.[...]

    Hamilton’s work, by contrast, reveals the truth that for capital, there is no “outside of the state.” The state is the necessary but not sufficient pre-condition for capitalism’s development. There is no creative destruction, competition, innovation, and accumulation without the “shadow socialism” of the public sector and state planning. We may soon find that there is no potable water or breathable air without them, either.[...]

    In most of the world, the real story of capitalism is not the story of laissez-faire — a doctrine the strong impose upon the weak — nor a quaint story about egalitarian local economies, but the story of the state presiding over a mixed economy. Hamiltonian developmentalism — the unnamed ideology — is amoral, pragmatic, instrumentalist, and flexible.

  107. Dow looking a bit toppy but Nasdaq and Russell still going strong!

  108. Phil // TASR
    Bought my wife a few CS2 stun guns yesterday off Amazon. The price delta is pretty incredible – TASR is definitely going for the 'luxury' hit. The nearest competitor that I saw was $200 less, and they look like Playskool.

  109. It’s Never Been More Lucrative to Be a Math-Loving People Person

  110. China has more shale gas than any other country. But getting it out of the ground could be disastrous

  111. GILD/Phil – I have covered stock (exp Jan15 $95) purchased at net $77.13 so a nice gain right now. Stock has no dividend. Considering rolling the Jan15 $95 calls to Jan16 $105 for ~$2 credit if I can get it. Also considering replacing the stock with long call (as pays no dividend and since has already blown past cover, is not going to be an open-ended multi-bagger). Thoughts on how to take best advantage of situation?

  112. “Pakistan Spring” Escalates; 3 Dead, Over 470 Injured As “Soft Coup” Hardens

  113. Celebrity iCloud Accounts Compromised by Weak Passwords, Not iCloud Breach

  114. Robots Could Learn How to Herd Humans Like Sheep: Study

  115. Euro hits one-year low versus dollar on ECB bets, pound falls

  116. Hollande, Draghi agree on threat from low growth, low inflation: official

  117. Here Are Goldman Sachs’ Forecasts For Everything

  118. Google’s Self-Driving Cars Won’t Work In Heavy Rain Or On Most Roads

  119. 24 Years Of America’s Unemployment Rate In 10 Seconds

  120. Everyone, Scottmi, STJ, others…….Thank you for your inputs on my computer issue. Will look up Puget systems and others as recommended

  121. Ag equipment sales down; manufacturers, farmers blame lower crop prices, change to tax break

  122. GILD/Phil – considering replacing my shares with Jan16 $100 long call for $86.36 credit, Rolling Jan15 $95 cover to Jan16 $120 short call for $3.95 debit. Leaves me with a 6.8% gain now ($82.41-$77.13) and a 'free' Jan16 $100/120 bull call spread already 50% in the money. This setup will put $82.41 back in my pocket today, with $25 more to come in Jan16 for a total return of 39% ($107.41-77.13) or 20% annualized from my first trade date (2/19/14). If I simply let it get called away at $95 this January, it will be a 25% annualized return. Hmm.. and if it close it today for $91.16 I get a 33% annualized return! Ok. Closing tomorrow.

  123. Brazil’s economy falls into recession, latest figures show

  124. A Sanctioned Russian Bank Just Hired Two Ex-US Senators As Lobbyists

  125. China Will Revise Its GDP Definition Until Its Hits Government “Growth Targets”, Goldman Explains

  126. Apple states there was no breach in iCloud security in hacking of celebrity nude photos

  127. Scientists Find ‘Alarming’ Amount Of Arsenic In Groundwater Near Texas Fracking Sites

  128. Even the Council on Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time to Rain Money on Main Street

  129. Summarizing Morgan Stanley’s Entire “S&P At 3000 In 2020″ Report In One Sentence

  130. jbur

    I have mentioned building system many times but there are twice as many saying spend your money somewhere else which basically says don't even listen to him. That is the trouble with rich people, never give anyone a chance. I would do many systems for a donation to the fund, whatever they think I am worth even nothing. Like getting donations on the internet, never going to happen. 

  131. Your Wall Street Slumlord Arrives in Europe: Goldman Launches “Buy-To-Rent” In Spain

  132. Charlie Munger’s Investing Principles | Pragmatic Capitalism

  133. Starbucks vs Dunkin in the US, 11,000 to 7200 – but note the geographic difference:

  134. Mass Incarceration: 21 Amazing Facts About America’s Obsession With Prison

  135. Blacklisted: The Secret Government Rulebook For Labeling You a Terrorist

  136. Britain Buys Water Cannons; Fears Civil Unrest From Government Workers

  137. Orwell Would Be Proud: US Media Admits Divine Right To Decide What Public Needs To Know

  138. I know what it takes, one that gives you a chance and hopefully recommends you, if they do it compounds if you do a good job. Any more on this site is considered begging. I have one resource and so far it is a dead end. You may not believe it but this site is a copy of America.  

  139. For RCA and Raytheon I put together systems with thousand of monitors when that was actually hard. Now for me it is easy but is anything worth the effort. I can tell you I don't need one more subjection of spend money I don't have for rejection. Want to see what I can build I have an almost 3 year old system doing nothing for me and it like everything I have is for sale. 

  140. Systems/Shadow – in no way am I saying don't listen to you. But what are you offering? how about putting a system spec together and offer a price and tell us how we would order it. I have never seen that from you. Or even saying you have a spec and a price. Just "i can do it better, cheaper." Well, what is it? I am sharing my experience with a top-notch company that I am happy to personally recommend, and they have a website with systems already spec'd with prices, and pricing for customizations, and all the info you could want about the components you are choosing, and if that isn't enough, a 1-800 phone number to call to discuss with a very knowledgeable real US-based person. Guys (and gals) who actually build and test the systems, too.  Show me, man. Give us a design and price for a 3 or 4 monitor system, all spec'd out.  

  141. scottmi

    I will do the first for cost, and a bunch more for cost bit I am done wasting time on if you do this. I call it jumping through hoops and they lead to other hoops and you will never be satisfied ever, I offer it free!

    At some point either someone gives you a chance or not. Thanks for the camera, too bad it is TOOOOOOO old!

  142. Fact is most of you are where your at because someone had faith in you even if that was your parents gave you money. I could say I can build a 4 monitor system for $2,000 but then I am a WMT building to a price and you will get something that works. You won't like it! I could say for $5,000 nothing is better and again rip you off. I say the best  not available and you can decide after what I am worth even Nothing Afterword.

    That is all I will do because nothing will be good enough when you say someone is better because he has this person or that person who has no idea what he got is not going to enter buyer's remorse. And the rest say your shit is not good enough.

  143. As a contractor I bid on what you want and computers are no different. That I did for big companies and myself. Want a Kitchen $1,000, just don't invite Martha Stewart over.

  144. ASML/Phil – i am really bummed i didnt take action on this a few days back – stock seemed to be building up from a nice consolidation but i was worried it would reverse… Phil, what do you think about this company, it is supposed to be very well positioned as a lithography equipment maker and there is some news on EUV which is pushing it higher – how would one play this? specially if it has long term potential? what do you think? is it just breaking out or is it going to reverse?

    Also, how does one paste a picture – i tried and couldnt…wanted to paste the trend.

    thank you as always Phil..

  145. ARMH/Phi – ARM holdings seems to be showing recent strength – currently 48 – headed into resistance @ 50? any opinion on this Phil? yes, most of my questions are around semiconductor stocks :)

    thank you Phil!

  146.    Winston: I think your right, by the waayy.  :)

  147. Phil said;

    Truth/Jabob – So you are saying you don't believe in DNA?  DNA analysis clearly shows we are exactly an advanced form of monkey, barely distinguishable and sharing 99.99% common traits.  If you can't accept that as being true – I'd stay away from Biotech investing.   I'm not trying to be mean, just want to legitimately discuss but, as I'm sure you know, I do find these discussions generally humorous because we're not going to settle anything – I just find other people's points of view fascinating. 


    As to animals not having the ability to make moral or immoral decisions – haven't you ever owned a dog?  I've seen my dogs guilty on many occasions – they KNOW when they've done something wrong, I have no doubt whatsoever about that.  That's what morality is, they understand right from wrong as well as most children.  



    I don't believe DNA proves that man is an advanced form of monkey even if they have common physical traits. I grew up with an akita and owned an akita--incredible dogs. He was a great dog. He "knew" if he did something "wrong" because there would be consequences (maybe) for his bad actions. A dog could be trained. A monkey is even smarter than a dog and can be trained to behave and do even more tricks. Do they understand right from wrong or are they just smart enough to know if they did something that will cause them to be punished or rewarded by their owner? Do you not believe that animals were created with instincts?


    A human being is different because they have free will. They are not bound by nature. We are above nature. A child born with a bad temper (FU) can overcome and rid himself of that bad character trait. We have the ability to refine our character traits if we choose to do so. An animal eats, sleeps, etc.. according to his nature and ability to do so. Have you ever seen an animal refrain from doing something because he reasoned and contemplated his options and decided it would be immoral to act on his desires?


    So I may agree that DNA is real and scientific but I do not agree that man is an advanced monkey. We are completely separate beings. I will never say that my ancestors were monkeys…If you want to believe yours were than so be it. If so, they were probably the smartest monkeys in the universe!!!

    BTW--that monkey in the video was awesome.



    Phil said;

    I disagree with ZZ though in that there are some objective truths.  Math should be objectively trues for all of us as well as physics and chemistry. 


    What I meant is that I believe that there could be an objective morality which I guess would be defined as the truth.




    Phil said;

    Now, the objective morality thing is very tricky.  Man is the only creature on the planet that kills for sport and also the only creature that murders ourselves.  Are we defective?  Hard to say.  Apparently it's some kind of advantage as we've spread across this planet like a virus and become the dominant life form in less than a 5 Million years – so much so that we're killing the planet.  As I mentioned before, for the first 4,990,000 years of this human roll-out, we haven't even had written language and I doubt speech is more than 100,000 years old so, for 4.9M years, we evolved (I know, iffy word) from Austrolopithecus to modern man relying ONLY on objective morality to guide us – whatever that is.  



    Men killing for sport and murdering doesn't remove the possibility of objective morality. We were created with free will. Isn't it up to us to decide whether to choose to do good or evil? If we are murdering each other and killing the planet than we probably are a bit defective. Hopefully, that can change. Phil. I thought that is one of the reasons you share your ideas on PSW. Thankfully, I am surrounded by many people who I believe to be outstandingly good and moral people. I don't think that I am naive. There are many corrupt and sick people too. But the selflessness and kindness that I have observed in my community and many other communities give me "hope" and "faith" in mankind.  



    Final word goes to the master Carlin:


    He was hilarious. But I agree and disagree. IF The Creator is perfect he doesn't need us to follow commandments and pray to him. Maybe, these were given to us because WE are the ones in need in order that we don't end up worshiping ourselves (or Joe Pesci) ;-)

  148. Good morning!  

    China way up, Hong Kong +2%, Shanghai +1%, /NKD down to 15,700 (-0.5%) for $500 per contract on that one.  

    Europe Futures up about 0.25%, our Futures up about 0.2%.

    Dollar 82.95, gold $1,270, oil $93.25, silver $19.26, copper $3.15, nat gas $3.91 and gasoline $2.554.

    No betting premise at the moment, not even sure /NKD will fail 15,700 but if /TF goes below 1,180, it's a bear bet (with very tight stops) – just because it's fun.  /YM 17,075, /ES 2,003 and /NQ just touched 4,100 so below those lines confirms a short entry.  I guess I like /NQ short below that line too.  And, of course, still long on /SI over $19.20 and /YG over $1,270 as long as the Dollar is under 82.

    So I guess there is a betting premise! 

  149. Ukraine/Scott – No idea if real or not but I never believe anything on TV, that's for sure.  

    Police/Scott – Those guys are really going nuts these days.  

    "Don't hurt me," a teen begged to the rifle-toting strangers. (Source: YouTube)

    SWAT officers had breached the home’s doors and windows in what authorities deceptively call a “knock and announce” entry.  Officers technically knocked, yes, but video clearly shows that they began shattering glass no more than three (3) seconds after the impatient rapping on the door began.  A raid performed in this fashion is, for all intents and purposes, indistinguishable from a veritable “no-knock” entry.

    The officers, in their hasty aggression, had used a battering ram to shatter a glass storm door.  The team intentionally broke other windows and detonated two flashbang grenades inside the house.

    “The front door was open,” said a shaken Ira Milan, who had not been home at the time. “It’s not like anyone was in there hiding. To bring a SWAT team seems a little excessive.”

    It's not like these guys couldn't have looked up who owned the house, seen if they had priors and determined a reasonable threat level posed by the 68 year-old grandmother and her granddaughter.  Oh wait, I take it back – it's Indiana and now I see why she looked so threatening:

    Louise Milan, 68, and her granddaughter were marched in front of neighbors in handcuffs. (Source: YouTube)

    Well, case solved!  

    The Milan family was wrongly targeted because their wireless internet signal had been had been discreetly used by an unauthorized remote user. A neighbor, Derrick Murray, had noticed that the Milans had not password-protected their wireless router, and accessed it without permission via his smartphone and used it to browse the internet from his parents’ house.  He was later arrested by the FBI and plead guilty to related charges of using forbidden speech.

    “I’m afraid of the police.  I’m afraid of them,” said the grandmother.  “I used to speak [to officers] and wave.  I don’t do that anymore, and I don’t trust them.”

    And you guys wonder why I'm scoping out retirement property in Europe?  

    TQQQ/JPH – Well, just 17 days to go and not looking good.  If /NQ holds 4,100 this week, we'll just have to give up.  I don't think we can count yesterday – it was like a typical low-volume Monday and we expected up action early in the week into Draghi – it's all about tomorrow, then we'll see:






    Long-term, we're not that overbought, that means a short correction could blow off steam (healthy) and lead to a nice breakout, which is what I was talking about yesterday in the Webcast.  

  150. Hamilton/StJ – Don't forget he was assassinated by Burr too – good stuff!  

    Big Chart – Nas is 15% over 3 of the 4 others and 7.5% over the S&P, by far the most "off course" of our tug-boats.  I think long on the Dow would be an upside hedge at this point, maybe DDM, but my heart wouldn't be in it.

    TASR/Wombat –  Well, they do have that interesting guarantee:

    When an X26C, M26C, or C2 ECD is used in self-defense, the ECDs may be deployed and left behind providing the Purchaser a window of opportunity to get to safety and call law enforcement. TASER International will replace the TASER X26C, M26C, or C2 ECD free of charge, with the same product or a like product

    GILD/Scott – Essentially, you are paying a small premium on the current position rather than waiting to get called away, right?  The Jan $95s are $18.20 so $113.20 with the stock at $109.36 means you are paying $4.16 to get out of a winning position, which is 4% for 4 months or an annualized 12% to get out of a clear winner that has virtually no chance of failing.  Do you really think this is generally a good practice?  

    As to a NEW trade on GILD, it's a bit high in the channel but you are willing to own it at $77, so it would seem selling the 2016 $90 puts for $9 (net $81) is a no-brainer and then you can buy the $80/110 bull call spread for $17 and that puts you back at net $8 and you make all the upside from $88 to $110 and the worst case is you own the stock again at net $88.  Of course, if you don't jump the gun on the old trade – that's another $4 in your pocket so really net $84 – a 5% bonus already!  

    Rich people/Shadow – Actually, the trouble with you is you have a tremendous chip on your shoulder and a bad attitude.  You often talk about being able to do this or that but where is the actual plan?  Where are the actual numbers.  If you want to build computer systems, you have 500 potential customers here but what are you offering?  Your competition is offering catalogs and specs and warrantees and 24/7 customer support and they accept credit cards and have free shipping….  

    So people are supposed to ditch that for what?   Have you, at any point, even said something as simple as "I can put together a system that can handle 4-8 monitors for under $1,000"?  Obviously, you're not building monitors from scratch so all you have to do is recommend those.  Have you?  Stop feeling sorry for yourself and definitely stop blaming other people when you don't even take the simplest steps to help yourself.  

    Rather than putting down every suggestion everyone makes and saying "I could do it better but nobody loves me", why don't you just go to the same site everyone else is looking at (from links suggested by well-meaning people who are not out to get you) and get the specs and then list out a similar or better system you could assemble for a better price.  Put up or shut up but don't sit there and say people don't care – it's insulting to all of us, especially people who have been kind enough to HAND YOU over $5,000 out of the goodness of their hearts.  

    And what Scott said. 

    And your "answer" to Scott is ridiculous – there's nothing specific there.  No one is asking you to do anything for cost and if specking out a system is too much effort for you, then imagine what actually building and delivering one will be like?  Sounds like a nightmare for the potential buyer – that's for sure!  

    And how dare you criticize the camera Scott sent you.  He's the only person who cared enough to send you one and you turn around and bite the hand that fed you – you are a self-destructive person and getting to be extremely off-putting in your comments – it needs to stop.  

    ASML/Nraman – That was a fantastic call by Yodi's from 7/24:


    Early bird Tree play, as discussed yesterday during the AAPL comments.

    AMSL buy Jan16 $75/87.50 BCS for 7.40 and sell the Jan16 80p at 7.60 monthly call selling to follow.

     ASML has a solid presence in semiconductor capital equipment, Dutch based company. Do your own home work before setting up any trades!!! 

    As to what I think – I don't.  It's not a company on my radar, though it's a major manufacturer – it just doesn't come up much in the states.  I think, 20% later than Yodi's pick, that the low-hanging fruit is gone and now you are chasing – it might be best to walk away.  If you regret not getting in at $85, you could still sell the 2016 $95 puts for $10 and that nets $85 and the $85/100 bull call spread is $10 so net $0 on the $15 spread but not worth the risk to me and I'd just stick with the short puts or, maybe, add the $100/120 bull call spread for $7 and drop the short puts to the $87.50 puts for $6.80 so net .20 on the $20 spread gives you all the upside from here and, worst case, you get your low entry point. 

    As to pictures, you can't – admin function only.  Imagine if everyone here posted whatever pictures they wanted?  I do like that trend chart though, I might start using them so thanks on that link. 

    ARMH/Nram – I guess you like your semis?  They are not cheap with a forward p/e of 32 and I would suggest, as with ASML, why don't you try identifying the channels of these stocks, logging what you think is a good price – and PATIENTLY wait for the stocks to come down to those prices.  If they make a higher channel instead – just do the same thing at the higher channel.  As with our Buy List, if you put 10-20 stocks on a watch list that you like – in any given month, one or two of them will go on sale.

    Futures took a big pop without ever hitting our bearish crosses. Dollar 82.85, /YM 17,150, /ES 2,010, /NQ 4,112.50 and 1,187.50 on /TF – now those are spots we can short with a bit of conviction.  I'd say as long as we can get /YM under 17,150 and /ES under 2,010 – shorting the laggard is game on.  

  151. God and DNA/Jabob – Oh no, not again!  I'll skip the DNA bit because I can't refute "I don't believe DNA proves" – if you don't believe it, then it doesn't.  After all, as Heinlein hypothesized: "thou art God".  

    As to whether or not dogs know right from wrong – now you are losing it.  The fact that a dog knows rules and fears punishment doesn't negate it's actions.  If that's the case, then the 10 commandments indicate that humans have no sense of morality without a rule book and a fear of punishment either.  This is the way in which God disproves himself and vanishes in a puff of logic.

    Dogs have the same free will you do and the do or do not follow the socially accepted rules as they are instructed.  Actually, if you want an example of a moral dog – my great dane, Tanya, was as gentle a soul as you'd ever meet.  

    She was 6' standing and weighed 165 but she wouldn't hurt a fly.  Little kids used to ride her and one time a kid yanked on her tail and she turned around and her tooth knicked the kid's cheek and she was absolutely mortified.  She was so upset we had to calm her down more than the kid and, for quite a while, every time she saw him after that she was very obviously guilty and ashamed.

    Another time I saw her come loping in from the neighbor's yard with something in her mouth and it turned out to be a goose.  I thought she killed it but she was gently carrying it between her teeth (the goose was pretty miserable about it) and she came over and dropped it at my feet, like a toy she found.  There are some things you teach a dog and some things you don't – just like there are some things you teach your kids and some things you don't.  Both have to have some of their own morality to function.  

    The only difference is, dogs can grow up in the wild and don't need us to teach them - the same can't be said for kids!  

  152. Europe flew up on their open, that's where our pop came from.  They have got Draghi fever over there.  Up about 1.5% on the continent and 0.8% in the UK. Also, Putin going for the Peace Prize:

  153. Hi Greg, can we have a replay of yesterday's webinar? Thanks

  154. Those replays take about 12 hours before they are ready from Webex, that's why the delay.  I think when we go long, they take longer too.  

  155. I am most pleased to announce that the Russell Futures (/TF) have pulled back to 1,182.50 and I would suggest appropriate stops be set, perhaps a 0.5-point trailing stop at this point so that we may collect our winnings in a genteel fashion.   

    Happy Winston?