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Whipsaw Wednesday – Up and Down We Go!

SPY 5 MINUTEWhat a fantastic ride!  

As you can see from Dave Fry's intraday SPY chart, we had that big, fake pop at the open which I told you to short (see yesterday's post) and we had a fantastic ride down until 1pm and we turned up about a half hour later but not before giving us some very nice gains from our morning short picks in our Live Member Chat Room:

  • /NKD (Nikkei Futures) fell from 15,800 to 15,700 – up $500 per contract
  • /YM (Dow) fell from 17,120 to 17,000 – up $100 per contract
  • /ES (S&P) fell from 2,005 to 1,993 – up $350 per contract
  • /NQ (Nasdaq) fell from 4,093 to 4,078 – up $300 per contract
  • /TF (Russell) fell from 1,179.50 to 1,171.50 – up $800 per contract

As usual, the Russell was the most fun and this morning we already hit it again as it popped to 1,187.50 and back to 1,183.50 for a nice $400 per contract pre-dawn gain (so far).  We prefer to take short pokes on the Futures as we're still generally long in our Member Portfolios, so it's better to balance our off-hours picks.  On the whole, the way this market is going – it's probably easier just to go long off the bottoms!

We are long Silver Futures (/SI) at $19.20 and Gold Futures (/YG) at $1,270 but tight stops below those lines and only if the Dollar is below 83 (now 82.88).  Futures can give you some fantastic, quick gains – but also have the potential to deal devastating losses as well.  

This morning's pop in the Futures came on news of a cease-fire in the Ukraine, which sent the EU markets flying at the open but it seemed like the usual political nonsense to us and that's why we shorted into the excitement.  Even as I write this (7:30), we're down to 1,182 on the Russell (/TF) futures (stop at 1,182.50) and now looking for some real breakdowns on the Dow (target 17,100), S&P (target 2,005) and the Nasdaq (target 4,100) to confirm a bigger downtrend and start shorting again.  

NDX WEEKLYAs long as we're holding 3 of our 5 "Must Hold" levels on the Big Chart, we remain long-term bullish but we are generally shorting the Nasdaq at this level (4,100 on the 100 and 4,600 on the Composite) as it's a bit silly and a pullback in AAPL, which we're also long on, will devastate the index.  If there is a bubble – like 1999, this index is going to be bubble central

While there has been much debate about the relative p/e of the S&P 500, which has somewhat been able to justify it's rise because the component companies have, through stock buybacks and M&A activity, decreased the total amount of shares the generally flat earnings are divided by.  That has kept the p/e of the S&P 500 well below the 1999 bubble levels and makes a good, bullish case.  

The Nasdaq, however, has seen its p/e ratio TRIPLE since early last year and, while we are nowhere near the insane 150 times earnings that were being thrown at dot com companies back in the day, we're still at a pretty unreasonable p/e of 45 on the Nasdaq.  That's 45 YEARS that it takes the average Nasdaq company to make back the money you are paying for each share of their stock.  

As interest rates go, you are getting just over 2%.  While that may be better than your bank, it's not better than the S&P, which, with dividends, is paying you about 5% to park your money there.  The Nasdaq is in bubblicious territory simply because it is a much smaller index (in market cap) than the S&P and a disproportionate allocation of capital has been finding it's way into even the worst of the Nasdaq components, courtesy of a surge in index fund investing.  

What kind of idiot is paying $286 a share for TSLA?  Why you are – if you are putting money into QQQ or one of a dozen other index funds (including solar funds) it is a part of.  The same goes for AMZN and their magical 543 p/e.  That's right, it will take AMZN 543 years to make $342 per share at the current rate but at least, unlike TSLA, they are actually making money!  

As you can see on the Fund Flow chart, all those "stimulus" Dollars that the Central Banks have been pumping out to the top 1% have not gone to create new jobs or to buy property, plant or equipment to increase production – it has simply put Trillions and Trillions of Dollars back into the stock market, which is why the price of all the indexes is rising so much faster than the actual earnings – there is simply more money around than there are places to put it.  

So, while we are VERY skeptical of the merits of this rally, we're also not going to fight the Fed or the other Central Banksters as long as the money keeps flowing in.  That's why, yesteray, our Live Trading Webinar was focused on 15 new  BULLISH, long-term trade ideas for our Buy List and we'll be adding one or two of those each week those Must Hold lines hold up into the end of the year BUT FIRST – how about we see ONE, SINGLE DAY in which the S&P actually holds 2,000?

"What?" you may ask, "Haven't we been over 2,000 for over a week?"  Actually, the truth is, just like yesterday's intra-day chart – we get pumped up over 2,000 for each open, sell off during the day and then get pumped back over it at the close.  EVERY DAY.  This is not what a strong market looks like – this is what a SCAM looks like:

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
Sep 2, 2014 2,004.07 2,006.12 1,994.85 2,002.28 2,819,980,000 2,002.28
Aug 29, 2014 1,998.45 2,003.38 1,994.65 2,003.37 2,259,130,000 2,003.37
Aug 28, 2014 1,997.42 1,998.55 1,990.52 1,996.74 2,282,400,000 1,996.74
Aug 27, 2014 2,000.54 2,002.14 1,996.20 2,000.12 2,344,350,000 2,000.12
Aug 26, 2014 1,998.59 2,005.04 1,998.59 2,000.02 2,451,950,000 2,000.02
Aug 25, 2014 1,991.74 2,001.95 1,991.74 1,997.92 2,233,880,000 1,997.92
Aug 22, 2014 1,992.60 1,993.54 1,984.76 1,988.40 2,301,860,000 1,988.40

As the great GW Bush once said: "Fool me once, shame on you – fool me, you can't get fooled again."  Don't be a fool – let the market PROVE it deserves to be here, let Draghi SHOW US THE MONEY tomorrow – not just talk about it, before we commit more of our capital at these levels.  

Be careful out there.  

 


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  1. Oil lines

    R3 – 98.34
    R2 – 97.11
    R1 – 95.14
    PP – 93.91
    S1 – 91.94
    S2 – 90.71
    S3 – 88.74


  2. Economic numbers today are a mixed bag….

    Chinese PMI higher, Australia GDP beating as well but Europe still looking weak which is probably why they are higher today – more free money!


  3. That probably means a top now:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/09/morgan-stanleys-adam-parker-capitulates/

    Until, not so long ago, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker was one of the most bearish analysts on the street. He had consistently violated one of the first rules of the market: Never mix politics with investing.

    Following last year’s 30% S&P 500 rally, he has had a change of heart. He now has a 3000 upside target for the S&P 500.


  4.  Good afternoon from Lisbon   Anyone on the board live here also going to Barcelona anyone there. Missed trading  hope all is well —haven't had time as yet to catch up on any posts


  5. Have fun Savi… and safe travel!


  6. Wow, Glenn Beck makes a bold prediction:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/glenn-beck-hillary-will-be-president

    Beck said he believes Clinton will remind Americans about the 1990s when her husband was president. “And this is what made me say, ‘Oh, my gosh, she’s going to win,’” he said. “Pat and I both have said in the past, ‘I would so gladly take Bill Clinton right now. Don’t those years seem simple and good [compared to today]?’”

    He added: "We already have friends on the left who say, ‘Will you guys just shut up about Benghazi?’ They’ve won that. Same with the IRS. All of it. And while we’re talking about technicalities and the past, they’re going to be talking about a past that was brightly remembered, and they will talk about the America we will become. She will win."


  7. Good morning!  

    For far too long, change has been thwarted by the Washington gun lobby and by leaders who refuse to take steps that will save lives. But something is changing.

    More than 2 million Americans have joined the movement to end gun violence, but if we're going to go toe-to-toe with the NRA — we need to be bigger and louder than they are. We've all got a part to play in the fight for common-sense gun laws.

    Everytown starts with you, and it starts in your town. Join the movement to end gun violence today.

    See, solutions are easy, getting the obstructionist assholes in Congress to let us do something – that's hard!  

    In 1988, we were ranked #1 on this list, now 16th – very sad:


  8. Where are they now, GOP Congressional edition starring Colorado's Tom Tancredo:

    Tom Tancredo spoke to Tim Wildmon of the American Family Association today about why he supports impeaching President Obama, telling the “Today’s Issues” host that impeachment is the only process to remove Obama “short of armed rebellion that everybody constantly — you know, a lot of people, I guess I should say, think to themselves is either coming or a potential — and God knows that’s not something we want to see.”

    The former congressman said the president’s actions are “so egregious and so dangerous to the Republic that unless we do something like impeachment, which is certainly deserved, that we will essentially have lost this thing no matter what happens in the next election.”

    We seriously need to cut these Red States loose (or is it "lose"?)…  

    health spending fixed

    doctors fixed

    nexium

    waste in american health care

    coverage gap


  9. Netflix makes early bet on Gotham • 8:38 AM

    Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

    Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLXlands streaming rights to upcoming Fox TV series Gotham under the terms of a new deal with Warner Bros. Worldwide Television Distribution.

    It appears to be the first time that Netflix has bet on a network show which hasn't yet debuted.

    Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos points to the global appeal of the Batman franchise in describing the content grab.

    Terms of the deal weren't disclosed, although the $2M-per-episode cost that Netflix reportedly paid out for rights to The Blacklist could give investors a ballpark figure.


  10. Futures hanging tough now that they've shaken off the morning dip.  Good chance to hold 2,000 today. 

    Those EU PMIs kind of suck but MORE FREE MONEY tomorrow morning is widely expected and, of course, like the way we blamed the weather last Q, they are blaming sanctions for the pullback and, if Ukraine is "fixed" then expectations will be ratcheted up (but still we'd like the free money too!).  

    Hi Savi!  Hope you are having a good trip.  

    NFLX/Jabob – Just an indication of the competition for content that is heating up.  Soon they'll have to grab shows while they are in development and gamble on pilots – just like studios do.  Only studios have p/e's under 20, not 220. 


  11. Cantor / Phil – And this guy consistently voted against raising the minimum wage. And now he makes what 200 people on minimum wage make every year! Why? Because he works 200 times more, because he is 200 times smarter? Seriously, how do these people sleep at night? Truly despicable…


  12. At the rate NFLX is spending money now to acquire content and the fact that when current contracts they have are up and content will be more expensive, how are they every going to have solid cash flow.  They are spending a ton right now.  For a 29B dollar company to have less than 300mm in cash flow for the year seems a tad excessive.



  13. Is it too late for TASR? I don't see how paranoia about criminals combined with lawsuits against shooting can lose. 

    I sold small amount cash secured puts with buying the stock in mind, but it shot up…

    I've worked in health care with the criminal class for years, published research on violence too, and know from extensive first hand experience things aren't going to get better demographically/behaviorally. In response, like the military that got it's hand in the till, there's a prison-industrial complex now which isn't going away easily. there might be some plays like ankle bracelets--cheaper control methods, but most violent guys are way too crazy to be controlled by something like that. 

    Also, could someone recommend a good time to roll the BCS on TZA, it seem to be doing it's job protecting but I need more longs, have to study the buy list recommendation as I just travelled to Asia where I'm living the low-budget expat lifestyle. 


  14. Do you know we spend over $18Bn a year keeping people OUT of this country?  That's enough money to put 1.6M kids through school!  And we've got what, 66,000 kids that we've rounded up at the border?  What a moronic policy!  

    How about, instead of building a gigantic fence at the boarder, we build hundreds of schools along the border and, instead of guards with rifles, we have teachers with smart boards and, when kids try to come to America from other countries, we register them and educate them?  I know, it's a crazy liberal plan that would only encourage more children to seek an education – what was I thinking?  

    On to Capitalism then:  

    Futures being pushed back to earlier highs for the open.  Europe very happy with UK up 0.8%, Germany up 1.3%, France up 1%, Italy up 2% and Spain up 1.3%.  Draghi's announcement is lunch for them tomorrow, about 7:45 for us.  

    Might be time to get more CLF, maybe X too:

    • Iron-Ore Prices Tumble

      Iron-ore prices tumbled to their lowest level in more than two years due to weak housing demand in China, sparking fears that high-cost mines around the world may be forced to close.

    Oops, MS got there first:

    • U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) +2.7% premarket as Morgan Stanley upgrades its view on the steel sector to Attractive while raising its price target for X, the firm's top pick in the sector, to $60 from $35 with a bull case for $87.
    • Stanley sees the steel industry benefiting from both structural and cyclical improvements, and likes U.S. Steel's compelling company-specific cost-cutting initiative; the firm also thinks X is getting ready to walk away from its loss-making Canadian operations.
    • Shares also may be getting a lift because of its exposure to favorable headlines out of eastern Europe: US Steel Europe, representing 17% of overall revenue, includes a steel plant and coke production facilities in Slovakia.
    • ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), with a strong presence in the area, also +2.7%; the other U.S. steel producers - AKSCMCNUESTLD - have less exposure to the region and are little changed premarket.
    • The U.S. Department of Commerce has set preliminary duties of up to 110% on imports of carbon and alloy steel wire rods from China following a ruling that found the products being sold below cost in the U.S.
    • The complaint regarding the imports, which totaled $313M in 2013, was made by several firms including ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), Keystone Consolidated (OTC:KYCN) and Nucor (NYSE:NUE).
    • A final decision by the Department of Commerce is due by Nov. 12. The U.S. International Trade Commission will make its final decision in December.
    • AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) says it expects Q3 EPS of $0.05-$0.10, better than Q1 results but below the $0.24 analyst consensus estimate.
    • The guidance does not include results related to the acquisition of Severstal Dearborn, which AKS expects to complete in Q3.
    • Sees Q3 shipments of ~1.35M tons, down ~3% Q/Q, due to reduced production at the Ashland Works blast furnace due to a recent unplanned maintenance outage and subsequent production shortfall; Ashland has returned to operation but at below-normal production, and expects to accelerate a planned outage from H1 2015 to Q4 2014.
    • AKS -1.2% premarket.

    DGLY down 10% now – crazy stuff. 

    Still liking those same levels short @ /YM 17,150, /ES 2,010, /NQ 4,112.50 and 1,187.50 on /TF but be careful if we're over any of them! 

    Good sales numbers:  Redbook Chain Store Sales

    • MBA Mortgage Applications:
    • Composite Index: +0.2% vs. +2.8% last week.
    • Purchase Index: -2% vs. -0.4% last week.
    • Refinance Index: +1% vs. +3% last week.
    • Fixed 30-year mortgage rate declines to 4.25% from 4.28.

    August Gallup US Job Creation Index: unchanged vs. 28 in July.

    • While most expect some sort of rate cut or maybe even a full-blown QE announcement from the ECB at their policy meeting tomorrow, Goldman takes a variant view and expects the central bank to do nothing despite recent weak economic readings.
    • Unless there is a significant further shock to the euro-area economy, our economists expect the ECB to remain broadly on hold until the December meeting … Moreover they continue to see the hurdle to implementation of sovereign QE as high, owing largely to the well-known institutional and political constraints in the euro area.”
    • The rate decision is due tomorrow at 7:45 ET. The euro has been heading south in recent weeks and – should Goldman's call prove correct – a sharp bounceback rally could be in order.
    • Euro ETFs: FXEEUOERODRREUFXULEURR
    • Stock futures are on the move due to the possibility of a cease-fire in Ukraine, with the Dow (+0.5%) and S&P 500 (+0.4%) poised to open at or near all-time highs, and the Nasdaq (+0.4%) set to begin with a fresh 14-year high.
    • The major European bourses are higher across the board; Asian markets also are higher, supported by the strong data in Chinese non-manufacturing PMI and HSBC services PMI.
    • Corporate news is limited, but homebuilder Toll Brothers +0.5% premarket after reporting better than expected Q3 earnings and raising guidance next year's average selling prices.
    • Crude oil futures are trying to recoup some of yesterday's big losses; they're now up $1.17 (+1.3%) to ~$94/bbl, helped by a weaker dollar.
    • Russian stocks are soaring following President Poroshenko's and Vladimir Putin's permanent ceasefire agreement in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.
    • The dollar-denominated RTS index is up 4.4% at 1229.58, while its ruble-based peer MICEX is 2.8% higher at 1,439.58.
    • ETFs: RSXRUSLRSXJRUSSERUSRBLRUDR

    Toll Brothers beats by $0.08, beats on revenue

    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL): FQ3 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.08.
    • Revenue of $1.06B (+53.8% Y/Y) beats by $72.76M.
    • Net income jumped 110% to $97.7M, or $0.53 per share, from $46.6M, or $0.26 per share, a year earlier.
    • The company sold 1,444 homes in the third quarter ended July 31, up from 1,059 in the same period a year ago. Average selling price rose 12% to $732,000.
    • Backlog of $3.1B and 4,204 units vs. FY 2014's third-quarter-end backlog of $2.8B and 4,001 units.
    • FQ3 results
    • TOL +2.3% premarket
    • Press Release
    • Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KOannounce that they will include still drinks (non-carbonated) in their partnership.
    • Coca-Cola will introduce Honest Tea K-Cup packs for Keurig machines as the first brand to be included in the expanded distribution deal.

    3D Systems buys Belgian 3D metal printing service bureau

    • 3D Systems (NYSE:DDDhas bought LayerWise, a Belgian provider of 3D-printed metal parts for aerospace, high-precision equipment, and medical/dental customers. Terms are undisclosed.
    • LayerWise's services are offered via proprietary metal printers – 3D claims they "deliver relative part density of up to 99.98% and match conventional metals' mechanical properties, at substantial unit weight reduction." The deal is expected to be "immediately accretive to [3D's] cash generation."
    • This summer has already seen acquisition-hungry 3D buy industrial printing service bureauLaser Reproductions and surgical simulator firm Simbionix. Last year, the company bought French metal printer maker Phenix Systems.
    • Shares +1% premarket.

    GE wins FDA approval for 3D mammography device

    • GE (NYSE:GE) Healthcare has won FDA approval for its mammography device that produces 3D images to detect breast cancer, adding new competition to the market dominated by Hologic (NASDAQ:HOLX).
    • The 3D mammography device contains hardware and software upgrades to the company's previously launched Senographe Essential 2D full-field digital mammography system.

  15. TASR/Sn0 – We're not even halfway through the decade, sure there's still time for our Stock of the Decade!  It's a bit high for us at the moment but, from a long-term perspective, we should still get a nice double from here over the next few years at least.   So, if I wanted to buy $18,000 worth of TASR (1,000 shares), I'd start by selling 5 of the 2016 $15 puts for $2.10 and use that money to buy the $15/22 bull call spread at $3 for net 0.90 on the $7 spread so your upside is $3,500 on the spreads (20% of $18K) but you are only committing to owning 500 at net $15.90 if it falls (and you can roll the short puts, of course) and cash and margin on this trade is only about $2,500, so a very efficient trade.  

    Also, keep in mind that if you did spend $18,000 for 1,000 shares, you'd be tying up $9,000 in margin and, to make $3,500, TASR would have to hit $21.50 anyway.  

    Nice little spike down at the open but those low lines are holding so let's watch them too for a range @ Dow (target 17,100), S&P (target 2,005) and the Nasdaq (target 4,100) and Russell (target 1,180) – no real breakdown until those fail.  


  16. TZA/Sn0 – What do you have?


  17. Woops, there goes AAPL!  Just hit $100.


  18. Good Morning!


  19. Well….

    You don't tug on Superman's cape
    You don't spit into the wind
    You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
    And you don't mess around with Yellen

    by shorting this market.


  20. Phil

    What do you see with IRBT.  The Dec. $30 calls I am holding are down 1/2. Should I wait a little longer to adjust out (not sure this drop is finished with the high pe) ?  They are covered with Dec. $40 calls short and March $30 puts sold. THX.


  21. Phil / inmigration calls:

     

    In 2000 in Spain there was a chronic shortage of workers ( don´t laugh…) and then the chamber of the biggest spanish companies in Spain asked publicly ( because they refuse many times in private) to allow permits for 30,000 ecuatorians to work in Spain in controlated contracts of 5 years, social insurance etc, nothing different of any spanish buddy.

    The government finally accepted a 30,000 quota on restricted conditions as being  registered in th Embassy in Ecuator and things like that.  The Embassy had to be protected by the ecuatorian army, the 30,000 applications were write off in the first day…………at the end Spain received 12% of extra population  (around 5 million people)  in just 3 years, the ones without contract just incoming as tourist were over 2 million the first year.

    The problems Spain is having now are extrapolated by this now unemployed group, Spanish government has been paying cash the unemployment rights plus one way ticket home for those who apply, until now there are about 350,000 who accept it.

    Italy is having an influx of over half million africans who don´t speak italian, don´t have the skills to integrate in the country economy.   inmigrants trafficants  are destroying democracies

    Be careful with your wishes…………could become true. 


  22. Talk about an aggressive call !

    US. Steel (NYSE:X) +2.7% premarket as Morgan Stanley upgrades its view on the steel sector to Attractive while raising its price target for X, the firm's top pick in the sector, to $60 from $35 with a bull case for $87


  23. Samsung Note 4 launch today along w new Edge style phone and Gear S watch.  impressive.  I'm looking to upgrade my Note 1.  Looks like it was worth the wait and skipping the Note 3.  

    http://mashable.com/2014/09/03/how-to-watch-the-samsung-galaxy-note-4-launch-live/


  24. X / Albo – Strange call to make after  a 50% move in 2 months! Can't bring myself to get in at these prices!


  25. Gear VR (Virtual Reality) is impressive.  Samsung partnered w Oculus.  You put the phone into the head gear and instant mobile virtual reality screen viewing sitting on your head.  


  26. The Internet Is Laughing About The Daily Mail's Explanation Of Apple's iCloudAAPL possibly due to Samsung announcing new competition:

    Samsung Unveils Two New Notes Ahead of Big-Screen IPhones

    [video] Samsung unveils Galaxy Note 4

    [video] Samsung Attempts to Steal Apple’s Wearable Thunder

    IRBT/DC – If you are short March $30 puts, and long the March $40s, then to what end would you pay $3.60 for the Dec $30 calls when the stock is at $31.82?  That's 50% premium.   If you are gambling on this being a floor and want to day trade the short calls on and off, then I think $32 should be a good floor but, since I'm market bearish this week – I wouldn't do it now.  I'd also point out you can sell the Dec $30 puts for $2.20 and then you can just roll the loser of the two in a couple of months and put a stop on the short $30s since you now have $2.20 to go towards rolling them higher.  

    Wishes/Advill – Yes, that's why I want to educate the immigrants, not just shove them in the country or, as we do now, force them into hiding so they can't get a good education and have no choice but to join the underground economy.  

    X/Albo – If we start slapping import duties on China, X will be in very good shape.  

    Oil very happy Ukraine is fixed, $94.40 now.  Not helping gold ($1,266) or silver ($19.16) and copper falling to $3.13 but gasoline (/RB) flew up to $2.60 – I suppose the sanction chatter was keeping them depressed or maybe it's just Wednesday…

    /NQ all the way down to 4,090 before bouncing.  AAPL $100.70.  A am suitably pleased to announce that the 15-point drop in the Nasdaq Futures yielded a satisfactory $300 gain but I shall refrain from expressing any enthusiasm for it as it may upset Winston…  


  27. CLF/Phil- How does lower Iron ore prices translate into a buy call for CLF a miner of iron ore? What am I missing? Lower price usually a result of decreased demand, right? 


  28. Good Morning Everyone!

    The webinar replay from this week is now up on our YouTube channel, here: 

    http://youtu.be/hzEjk8rx60g


  29. Gear/Terra – Wow, so now, then I'm out in the real world with my phone, I can go right back to the virtual world I left back home – Matrix here I come!!!  cheeky

    Iron Ore/Craigs – I think CLF is already about as low as it's likely to get ($14.50) and this "bad news" should test that theory and give us a base to build off.  

    Thanks Greg.  


  30. Phil/IRBT

    Sorry, but I must have confused you. I hold the Dec $30/$40 BCS and have an equal number of March $30 puts sold.  Not sure that really changes what you said?


  31. I can't see how X can have great prospects without that being good for CLF!


  32. Greg / replay

    Do you have a direct link from Webex for the replay? I like to file them locally and it’s a pain in the rear end to do that from Youtube. Thank you.


  33. Phil – ES  As it likes to go in 10 point runs, the open high of ES  was 2008 which gives me a target of 1998 for todays low.


  34. Phil/SPLS

    A while back ago you suggested buying the SPLS 2016 $13 calls (.90) and selling the 2016 $10 puts ($1.45). The puts are down to .75 and the calls are now just under $1.40. The 2016 $15 calls can now be sold for around (.80) making this almost a free trade assuming one either takes the puts off the table now or they risk (pretty good in my opinion) letting them expire worthless. The merger talk is pushing SPLS up for now.


  35. ~~Intel Core i7-5820K Processor and Asus X99-Deluxe Motherboard and ADATA XPG Z1 DDR4 2133MHz 2x8GB and Samsung 840 EVO 250GB SSD and Corsair Hydro Series H100i Liquid CPU Cooler and Asus GeForce Bundle

    This is a super gaming system that could have multiple monitors $2,500 today!

    Phil

    I have been on this site, everything is custom based on what you want, no standard systems or prices like a Dell or HP #####. 

    As far as lifetime support, no problem, call 24/7 and I would beat their price. Your confusing custom with made up systems and I can't even consider becoming a HP.

    What I need to know is what someone wants, 4 monitors could be up to $5,000 maybe more. I built sate of art a few years back with 6 monitors one also a TV under $3K total for parts, even wireless mouse.

     

    http://www.pugetsystems.com/ What do you want, it is not reasonable to build a similar web site that like this everything depends, Prices change daily, I can duplicate anything or maximize, 2 weeks, stocking parts is a disaster when tomorrow the next up comes out, I can set it up with software but what do you want?


  36. http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/search.asp?keywords=evga+classified This what I use to start

    Tiger direct has systems and prices, I can match and or outdo any of them.


  37. Pharm

    If      Allergan Inc. (AGN) does not buy   Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (SLXP) who do you think they will buy? Thanks


  38. GoPro had gone crazy.  Can't believe it passed 57 today.  over 80 RSI


  39. AAPL/Phil – If this drop is due to Samsung launches, what does that mean long term to AAPL? Could this just be the consolidation pullback you have been expecting before it breaks out again? Is $100 a buying opportunity level or is it a stop on the way to lower prices in your opinion?


  40. Cramer likes the 4 stocks that I think are right now ridiculously high in the short term and fundamentally way overvalued (but fundamentals mean crap right now)

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12839453/1/jim-cramers-top-stock-picks-twtr-gpro-tsla-nflx-gnc-vsi.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO


  41. Allergan has its own take over issues.  So, SALIX, IDK.  Right now, I am still looking at <10B = ICPT, SGEN, ITMN, LCI, PCTC.  <10B is easier to swallow.


  42. Rustle123 – Yes, GPRO had had a heckuva run.  I bought a small amount of GPRO and ANET for LTP following pullbacks from IPO frenzy.  Also holding a small amount of FEYE from higher levels. :-(


  43. DGLY – Down 16%.  No surprise there.


  44. Is there a lock-up period for GPRO? and if so when does it end?


  45. Phil

    Are these out ? Thanks

    Textron Inc. (TXT) on defense

    Baxter International Inc. (BAX) on dividing the company like abbot

     

    For the buy list?


  46. Craigs – Apple – it depends what they announce next week.  they better come out with some cool new stuff on the new phone and watch.  Samsung really delivered today.  some awesome new features i think.  the new gear S watch can operate on its own as a standalone phone if i understood correctly and also has a keyboard functionality on its 2 inch screen.  


  47. GM To Monitor Distracted Driving.

    The Entrepreneur Magazine (9/3) reports that according to the Financial Times, General Motors is planning to install facial recognition machines developed by the Australian company Seeing Machine in about a half-a-million cars, which will “track driver’s eye and head movements to cut down on distracted driving.” The report says that there could be potential concerns about the “sensing technology that will monitor driver’s vital signs.”

            GM Investing In Semi-Automated Car-Driving Technology. The Fortune (9/2) reports that Japanese manufacturer Takata, which supplies GM with safety parts, has signed a deal for 15 years with Seeing Machines to create about 500,000 sensors for making driving a safer experience. The news still await its confirmation from General Motors itself.

            Automotive Industry Moving In The Direction Of GM. Fox News (9/2) reports that though GM might be the first to get the technology to the market, several other automotive companies such as Ford and Volvo are also looking into it. The article reports that “the key to successful software” in this space would be “processing the information” such that data analysis and prompt response by the machine will not make the driver “angry or upset” on the road.

     


  48. Phil // TQQQ
    following on yesterdays post – jump boat ?


  49. scottmi

    I remember thanking you e-mail and PSW. I bought a serial to USB adapter a couple years ago but MS blocked the driver shortly after, can't find another unblocked driver. This is a spy BS thing where they can't monitor serial products. Computer companies are under the gun to allow NASA into everything. Makes no sense to me as once I load a picture they can look at it. Sorry but to me a custom system is just that, what your suggesting is a box system, I get emails every week telling me something is new, faster whatever, obsolete before it gets to my door. Manufacturers know I built one and usually they build for friends. I basically was offering to build as a friend for the fun of doing it. I am way different than many here, I sent my broken clutch hub and basket out to be pressed off and onto a new hub without demanding a price, decent people always do it at a fair price. Others trust no one and that is a place I will never go. They always pay the most, that is what contractors do, price for everything will go wrong.


  50. KKR buys 35% stake in Savant ( connected home )
    Interesting collision / dovetail with AAPL


  51. FWIW.  This opinion from Briefing Trader :

    Iron ore prices have been taking a hit in recent sessions.
    However, this is intentional and a key driver of this is the Big 3 (BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO) and Vale (VALE)) trying to hurt smaller competitors who have much higher break-even rates.

    The big 3 have boosted production in order to try and drive Chinese competitors out of business.
     

    We should be able to get a trade out of this with either RIO, VALE, BHP and/or CLF soon as a sustained decline in iron ore prices is not likely. 

     

     

     


  52. BTW – That last sentence was also from Briefing, not me.  Let's just hope it's not CLF that they drive out of business. 8-)


  53. LCI/Pharm – any thoughts on these guys? numbers don't look bad. Do you consider their hyperthyroid treatment a sound base or know if someone have a replacement treatment pending?


  54. hypothyroid that is… and other thyroid..


  55. LCI – chartwise, sure looks like is topping the far shoulder in a classic head and shoulder pattern… I'd want to see this retake and hold 45.50 to go long, and if it loses 35… oh, who am I kidding. What could go down with Yellen and friends on the job!?


  56. I have the TZA  13/16 Oct 17 BCS. 

    I stil have profits in Apple even after 4% drop, it seems it's just that  hacking scandal, I don't see any competitor that can make computers/gadgets stylish so just looks like a blip to me. 


  57. Hey I know I am behind on this…can someone send or point me to the Vegas info?  Thanks


  58. Phil—is there any post that explains why you think IRBT is the stock of the century? 


  59. Hi Phil and all,

    I am new to PSW and would like to trade the futures.  In chat Phil outlines levels on YM, NQ, ES, etc..at which to trade long or short.  Can Phil/someone please explain how these levels are chosen. 

    Also when we discuss futures trades during the webinars I see 1 pink line 2 green lines and 2 red lines.  What are these lines and how are they calculated.  Much appreciated.    


  60. LV info contact Greg@ Phil's stock world


  61. Re: Samsung/AAPL--I'm still long Apple and may be naive, but I think Samsung has the same problem Microsoft had versus Apple: the engineers and/or bean counters are clearly higher in the internal hierarchy than the design people. Apple actually hired schoolteachers in their early design stages for the interface. Other hardware tech companies view design as the part you paste over the "hard, important" part--the engineering underpinnings, which is why they have never gotten to the elegance of Apple design. 

    When I see that Microsoft deliberately eliminated the "File" menu, which almost literally every user in the world knew how to use, with a big "Windows" symbol, it was such a sign of bad faith in design I was stunned. 

    Samsung engineers can come close to matching Apple's, but from a common user's viewpoint-- It "should" be easy to use is not the same as IS easy to use. 


  62. LINE is Ex-div tomorrow.  I had 400 shares called away, so I'm re-buying.


  63. Phil / ES      1998 Target achieved.  Sorry couldn't stay above 2000


  64. IRBT/DC – So you have the Dec $30/40 bull call spread and the short $30s with IRBT at $31.50?  In that case, you don't want to lose the $3.60 (1/2 premium) of the Dec calls and you want to invest $1 to buy 4 more months (March $30s) and you can let the Dec calls expire and then sell something in March for $1 (currently the $42s) to re-initiate a spread and get your $1 back.  

    X/Jet – I agree.  Though X is 80% US and 10% Europe sales while CLF is 64% US and 32% Asia, so a bit less of an effect on CLF than X for the same good demand news in the US but still not enough so that you would ignore CLF. 

    /ES/Brit – I don't know that I'd place any significance on the opening price.  Any 5-point line in /ES usually has a bit of resistance to it and that gets stronger at 10-point lines, so that's likely what you've observed.  Keep in mind that, at 2,000, 0.5% is a 10-point move now.  

    SPLS/DC – Always nice to lock in gains and capping the upside at $15 is not too crazy since we're only at $13 now – good call. I'm not ready to pull the trigger in the LTP but I will be watching now to see if the upside momentum is fizzing out.  

    SPLS/Jomp – I agree it's very tempting here but I see them floundering (throwing a bunch of new strategies up to see what sticks) and it makes me nervous.   Of course, at $7Bn with 2,200 stores positive cash flow and low debt, they pass my main test for a long-term hold – that I couldn't build them cheaper myself!  

    That then means they have a floor at about $7 as someone would surely buy them there and those people would pay a 20% premium which takes us back to $8.50 so there's no reason at all not to sell 20 2016 $10 puts for $1.40 ($2,800) and buy 20 $13 calls for 0.90 ($1,800) for a net .50 credit and a $9.50 entry on 2,000 shares ($19,000) as a worst case.  Let's do a set of those in the LTP.  

    Good example of playing the Fundamentals on a stock.  At $13, they weren't attractive but, a month later at $11, they became attractive as the potential reward began to outweigh the risk. 

    Staples, Office Depot merger talk moves stock

    [$$] Why Staples Should Buy Office Depot

    System/Shadow – I'm not suggesting you build a web site.  I'm suggesting you spec out a 3, 4, 6 and 8 monitor set-up and let people know what you can build it for vs what's being charged by others.  No one expects anything fancy but I can go to Puget and get the specs in 2 seconds.  As the kind of rich guy who could be a customer – I look at this and it's all jibber-jabber to me and I don't WANT to go back and forth with those guys trying to explain what I want for trading.  YOU could add value by being the expert and configuring a couple of systems with nice monitor set-ups that people might be interested in and then all you need to do is have a simple link people can look at and compare.

    For example, my old Dell died a while ago and, because I use an Apple Cinema display for my center screen, it needed a special card and the Dell guy didn't know and had to ask someone, etc, and then I have my two other Dell monitors on each side of it.  Tina dealt with it but the bottom line is I went out for a day, came home and Tina said "I put in your new computer" and I had no ideas because, since she knows me, she swapped the box but didn't touch my keyboard or track ball or monitors and she replicated the old set-up so, as far as I can tell – it's all the same but now it's faster and the drive doesn't make scary sounds anymore.  

    That's what most traders want – we don't give a crap about the hardware, we want something that works and is reliable and we want someone to set it up for us so we can push an on button and start trading.  The "trick" is to take care of that need.  Most of us aren't gamers – gamers like specs – we like systems that have no trouble with our multiple screens, don't lock up and are very fast.  It's similar to a gaming set-up, but don't expect us to tell you what we want, we don't know, but it looks like this:

    Or, for those of us with wives:

    GPRO/Rustle – Next time there's an IPO for a company that makes toys for rich people, let's just buy the damned thing and not worry about valuation:

    The same people that buy the stuff buy the stock and they don't sell it.  

    AAPL/Craigs – It is just the consolidation we expected.  Samsung is just a catalyst.  It could have been anything.  No reason to change my two-week old prediction so far:

    Submitted on 2014/08/21 at 2:59 pm

    AAPL/Diamond – A lot of stops are triggered on AAPL over $100 – longs taking profits, shorts capitulating.  I think they need the 200 dma to come up from $82.50 to $87.50 before they can get going again so that's +$5 and AAPL is at $100 so call it $20, which means it will take 50 days to bend the 200 dma that high but that will push the 50 dma (now $95) up to $97.50 in 25 days so AAPL may drift up around $105, then come back to $97.50 by Sept expirations and THEN it can bounce off there and have clear sailing to $120+.  How's that for a vague TA prediction?  

    So of course it is bouncing off $100 – even if it's going to ultimately fail – I wouldn't jump in here – I want to see how it handles $97.50 first.  Next week is a huge wild-card.  

    Cramer/Rustle – Maybe that's why they spiked today at the open before selling off.  

    GPRO/Skier – Lockup expires Dec 27th but it's only 17M of the 125M shares out there.  Only 3.2% of the float is shorted – it's a "stay away" stock to me, not a short.  

    TXT/QC – I like TXT a lot but they're not cheap so I'd rather wait for a pullback.  At the moment, I think they are supported by the 200 dma and will eventually fall below it to the low $30s (the 50 dma will death cross below the 200 dma in about 2 weeks).  As to BAX, it's a good, solid company that pays a 3% dividend, so nothing wrong with it but also not cheap at $74.  If it goes on sale, I might get interested but there are lots and lots of good companies that aren't on sale – that's not what the Buy List is for.  AAPL isn't on the Buy List – I like AAPL 100x more than TXT or BAX.  GE – not on the Buy List.  CAT – not on the Buy List.  BA – Not on the Buy List… 

    This is not to say you shouldn't have your own Buy List of stocks you like and want to watch – that's the real point of the Buy List – to teach you a discipline for buying stocks over the long haul.  

    Now can I say "wheeeeeeee!"?

    Distracted driving/QC – What they are really doing is creating awareness and compiling data to make the case that driverless cars will need to be phased in in the Future.  If they just try to market them, it will be a long, slow process but, if they show that human drivers are more dangerous than robo-cars, then the Insurance Companies will start punishing human drivers and the Government will spend money to build roads that are optimized for driverless cars and Congress will pass laws that are friendly to driverless cars, etc.  This is step one to playing a long game that will unfold over our lifetime.  

    TQQQ/$25KP, Wombat – It just dropped $1.70 today and now you want to kill it?  The Sept $86 puts are $1.40 still (thinly traded) and the $80 puts are .45.  If we could sell the $86 puts and leave the naked, short $80 puts, I might like it but we can't in the $25KP, so we won't and we'll see if Draghi comes through tomorrow but, since he's a GS puppet and GS just said he wouldn't – I'm liking the odds.  

    AAPL $99.  

    Iron/Albo – Makes sense as these prices are silly-low.  

    TZA/Sn0 – TZA is at $14.18 and Oct is 44 days to expiration.  The $13 calls are $1.41 at the moment so I'm not sure why you'd want to roll so early but, if you were worried while the RUT was higher, you could take this opportunity to roll to the Jan $13s at $2.25 for 0.84 more and that buys you 3 more months of insurance.  When the Oct short $16s expire, then you can hopefully get your 0.85 back by selling Jan calls. Currently the $18s are .85+

    IRBT/Jabob – Here's a couple:

    Submitted on 2014/04/25 at 12:56 pm

    IRBT/Craigs – Century, TASR is the decade.  I did the math a while ago but short story is IRBT currently sells $500M worth of crap and makes $25M for a p/e of 20.  By next year, they should be up around $650M (+30%), with $35M in profits and a p/e of 18.5.  The military spends $700Bn a year on stuff, like $20Bn on F-35s that don't actually work.  A trained soldier in the field is a $2M/yr expense for the army and, at some point, some of those soldiers will be replaced by $500,000 robots. Not one, not two but thousands of them for Billions of Dollars.  IRBT has the inside track for those programs and already they are testing special-purpose robots like bomb-checkers and scouts – much cheaper to send a $50,000 camera-fitted robot to check out a building than a $2M soldier…  How many squads are there who will get a robot squad-mate in the future?  

    That's why I think IRBT is a very likely 10-bagger over the next decade or two.  They are profitable now, a single, Billion-Dollar annual contract from the military (and we aren't the only military) would probably drop 20% to the bottom line or $200M – up from $25M now.  They just have to hit the right mix.

    Also, this:

    Scott Hartley, one of the founders of 5D Robotics, recently had this to say at an Army demonstration at Fort Benning in Georgia: …”ten years from now, there will probably be one soldier for every 10 robots. Each soldier could have one or five robots flanking him, looking for enemies, scanning for land mines.”

    US Army robots will outnumber human soldiers 10 to 1 by 2023

    And destroying all humans!  cheeky

    Submitted on 2014/02/28 at 10:15 am

    IRBT/Jrom – Oh man, I wanna go!  The stuff I want to know is probably the stuff you won't be allowed to talk about but I very much see the future of that company as a massive military supplier so whatever you can share along those lines would be great.  

    Keep in mind folks, the reason IRBT is my stock of the century is because they currently are very attractive with $500M in sales and $25M in profits (p/e 20) with good growth (30%) and a $1.3Bn market cap but a single military contract to supply 1,000 $1M robots would triple their sale.  As far as I can tell, they are clearly one of the leaders in the field – they just haven't cracked the Government contract game yet.

    Tours like the one Jrom is going on are how they grease the wheels. 

    Welcome Cfox!  Levels we pick are from observed support/resistance lines which change daily (and intra-day).  Generally, we'll want to lean bullish or bearish (was bearish today) and then we'll pick some significant lines to play off.  In general, we want to see at least 2 of the 4 indexes confirm direction (and sometimes we also track the Dollar, Euro, Yen, Gold, Nikkei, Oil… as well) and then we tend to "short the laggard" – or pick one of the last ones to cross and ride that down as long as the momentum of the other indexes remains in our direction.  When the momentum changes – we take our profits and run.  There – you are now an expert Futures Trader!  wink

    As to the lines you see, those are what they call a "Pivot Point" study in Think or Swim, it's a standard study on their chart menu.  I have no idea how TOS calculates it but, generally, it's the arithmetic average of the high (H), low (L), and closing (C) prices of the market in the prior trading period, so:

    R1 = P + (P − L) = 2×P − L

    S1 = P − (H − P) = 2×P − H

    R2 = P + (H − L)

    S2 = P − (H − L)

    R3 = H + 2×(P − L) = R1 + (H − L)

    S3 = L − 2×(H − P) = S1 − (H − L)

    You can do your own for practice and see how well they match up – lots of fun!  

    AAPL/Sn0 – Sometimes, it all comes down to one guy with a vision.  Samsung (or someone else) may find that guy but, as of yet – it doesn't seem like it.  

    /ES/Brit – They'll pump it back up now.  All futures shorts stopped out – now 17,090, 2,000, 4,071 and 1,174.  Dollar 82.93, Gold $1,269, oil $94.34, silver $19.18, copper $3.13, nat gas $3.847 and gasoline $2.5997.


  65. Phil/DXD

    The oct 25's are down 50%, what do you think about doubling down now?


  66. /ES / Phil - Agreed, 10 point runs in ES have been very common for years.  We could easily now go back to 2008 for a second run upwards


  67. MCP/Phil – talk about hammered… Howard Marks' Oaktree just put $400 million into them. What do you think they are they buying with that? Good money after bad or salvation for shareholders or will they be delighted for it to fail and clean up by selling off the…what? In your opinion, with Oaktree in there, is this a bottom-barrel opportunity or long overdue death waiting to happen? 


  68. Phil

    Based on what you said and what I found on other sites they have no clue what to sell a trader and that is what I was trying to show. My system proved monitors can be cheap along with video cards, not a lot of need for the fastest processor. What is needed is maximum RAM at maximum speed, does more than the highest seed line. SDS is another waste of money, only helpful but no substitute for RAM. Prices change every day, I will come up with a 4 monitor system price for traders, hope it is not wasting time and I mean more than mine, I have to pick brains of engineers, salesmen sell and are mostly ignorant of real ability.

    Gamers are into specs but not what most think, it is like HFT to beat traders. Last the earlier quote isn't a reasonable trading system it was a copy, the video card is dumb money, not even the best for gamers.


  69. thanks for the explanation.  I wish becoming an expert was that easy but probably not so I'll practice practice and practice some more before putting real $$$ to work. 


  70. Phil/Rapprochement: I fully agree with your "wheeeeeeee!"


  71. GILD/Phil – thanks for comments. Good points to consider. Not sure 1% per month is the best use--that is only the best case if trade is left alone. GILD has run ahead of track, and as such, is providing a 32% premium (33% vs 25%, annualized return) for the time the cash/margin is tied up.  You have often commented "don't be greedy" and talk about trades being 'on track' or not. Well, I do not share confidence that GILD has 'virtually no chance of failing.' It's a biotech! And no dividend to wait for. And we all think everything is a bit toppy now. And plenty of cash on hand is good, so.. Yes, I do think taking this one off early is a good practice--it is way ahead. Not likely to sit on just the cash for the next 4 months either so not really 'losing' that 12% annualized remainder. Looking for the next opportunity that can offer a conservative 20%+ or more return in possibly even that same four months. Of course, already off a bit today so looks like my sale is not quite ready to clear after all.. Will keep thinking on it.

    *(apologies to Winston for gratuitous use of And at beginning of sentences, and any other idiosyncratic grammatical faux pas I habitually practice.)  ;-)


  72. scottmi/ yesterday your use of a '--' and a '..' would have irritated me. Not you, but your use of (a subtle difference). Today, somehow, everything seems right with the world (or the small part that I inhabit). What's a few grammatical errors between friends? It's the grease that oils the wheels of interaction. This board has become an ecosystem for comrades. Not in arms, but a shared quest to profit from many things, not just money. Family – can't live with them, but more so can't live without them.


  73. DXD/Jeff – No doubling down, we're either going to get a big sell-off or we won't.  We should know by the end of the week.  

    /ES/Brit – Don't forget though, we topped out at 2,010 and fell back to 1,997.50 so 12.5 means bounce lines are 2.5 and 5 so, 2,002.50 is the strong bounce and that's where we're topping now.  Failure here means we leg down to test 1,995 again (most likely).  Only getting weak bounces off the Nas and RUT so far.  

    MCP/Scott – $400M – that's the entire market cap!  As I keep saying about these guys, this is all about China and how much they ship out.   The only reason MCP ever looked good is when China decided to cap Rare Earth exports for a little while.  I just don't like messing with a company where their fate is completely out of their hands (not to mention a dysfunctional business model in anything but a political crisis with one particular country).   As a speculative play – sure, $1.74 is a fun entry but it's a craps roll at best whether it pays off.  

    System/Shadow – I'd start by asking people what kind of system they'd like have to get some input.  

    Practice/Cfox – Yes, I was just kidding – PLEASE practice A LOT before getting into very dangerous Futures trading.  TOS has a Paper Money trading mode that lets you practice, very good for playing along without all those nasty losses that tend to come while you learn.  

    Welcome back Winston!  cheeky

    GILD/Scott – I don't consider them Biotech at $164Bn with several big-money drug lines.  There's steady business there AND they are aggressively growing by buying biotech companies that have proven they actually have something.  12% not a huge deal, IF you have something better to do with the money, of course.  Tragic if you just bank it.  And LOL on the grammar.  

    Well said Winston – as I told my kids last week, you go to funerals to bond with your family and learn something about your ancestors.  They thought they would hate it but we all had a very nice time at my aunt's funeral, despite the circumstances.  Families are like that, they get you through tough times and, more importantly, they are always there for you – dropping everything to pull together in an emergency.  


  74. Phil all system

    If not clear I need to know what you want.

    To understand why I respond is when I offered to build for free what was posted wasn't hey Shadow built a great one but instead go somewhere else. That really says it all, "Go anywhere else".


  75. Cfox /  Comment:

    Talking about myself, I can tell you that 80% of my attention with Phil is futures related, comment in the morning and updates or specific CLEAR call in any moment and for comments I think I´m not alone….Welcome!

     

    Phil / trading desk:   C´mon, the second picture is not your trading desk!…I imagine you having a  XIX century english desk (s)  with a window in front to  a forest, with Apple gear and 2 vintage paintings at your side, for seating a Hermann Miller exec  brown leather chair with inox. base………you are my hero!!…..lol


  76. Phil,

    No 1:30/2:15 buy express today? I guess it leaves when it leaves!!


  77. There is something all need to know I found from a major seller of parts that trading systems are built by one person at a time and they don't work for some on line or walk in store although they will do it, because they don't understand what is needed only what might work. They are built by single person specialists or people who do it themselves. Gust Google it and you will find nothing. really matches. I promise any HP Dell or anyone like that they just don't really do what you need for multiple displays. The USB adds are not very good and no one puts in a big enough power supply to run the PCI cards so chuck that PS and then a more powerful supply doesn't fit in the box. I spent 2 months figuring that out before doing anything and that is because I did these things professionally for years.


  78. Beige Book is out – Not too strong from what I see so far.  


  79. Custom MGB GT – here's some crazy serious custom work… Gotta love it!

    http://www.speedhunters.com/2014/09/im-sorry-youre-going-mgb/


  80. BTW AAPL is good for 2 monitors or compromises, and they have no plans to change, add USBs but everything will get slow. Phil said must be fast, that takes other CPUs to run the monitors.


  81. Scottmi – As you probably noticed, the Oaktree commitment is in the form of a secured loan.  In the event of a bankruptcy they stand to be at least partially, if not fully protected.  Far different from buying the stock.  Didn't see the rate they are charging, but you can believe it's high.  Their upside kicker is warrants equal to 10% of the outstanding shares.  They could come out smelling like a rose, while the shareholders lose everything.


  82. Phil / Jabob "…you go to funerals to bond with your family and learn something about your ancestors."  Funny you should mention that --  it's why I go to the zoo!!!" 


  83. MCP/albo - Oaktree is getting 12% and are in first position. Yes, probably work out just fine for them either way…


  84. Wants/Shadow – I don't want anything, I'm not in the market for a system but others were discussing it, perhaps they have some input.  

    Trading desk/Advill – I have a flat layout with a 30" display in front, which is good because I can display 3 portrait windows at 120%, which stops me from getting eye-strain (the resolution is very important too, I've discovered – that's why I have the AAPL).  My side monitors to that screen are 2 21" Dells which I run full screens on so 5 windows with about 40 tabs on the system in front of me.  On my left side is a 27" IMac that runs TOS charts and on my right side is an HPQ 27" TouchSmart that runs my Futures stuff you guys see when we do a Webinar.  

    Above my Apple Monitor in front of my is a TV for CNBC and right outside my office, the living room TV always has Bloomberg so I can hear in my ear if anything interesting comes on over there and whenever I get up for water or food or bathroom, it's good to check up on what's on the other channel.  I think the only thing I'd want to change is maybe adding 2 more Dells above the ones I now have but that would make for a tricky configuration on the main computer.  

    And the good art is in the rest of the house, my office has Einstein, Beethoven,  Lennon, several Batmans, Spider Man, Joker, Star Trek, one Picasso and one very cool triptic of Buddha, where I pray for Jabob's spirit.  angel

    CPUs/Shadow – That's why I have the side computers, other configurations dragged my speed down too much (but I was buying off the shelf stuff).  

    LOL ZZ – touche.  

    No reaction at all to the BBook.  "Slight to moderate" growth continues.  

    Although housing activity showed signs of a rebound, manufacturing quickened and tourism picked up speed in the US over the last two months, wage pressures remained "slight or modest."

    That's the finding from the latest survey of the world's largest economy from the Federal Reserve's regional banks.

    The so-called Beige Book survey, which was released on Wednesday afternoon, found that "districts reported little change in wage pressures, which were commonly characterized as slight or modest."

    Wage growth has been catapulted higher up the agenda of investors by the Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen, who has said it's one of the factors that will help determine when the central bank raises interest rates for the first time since the crisis.

    Although growth improved in the 12 regional districts that the Fed banks divide the US into, the Beige Book said that "none of the Districts pointed to a distinct shift in the overall pace of growth" since the last survey.

    And on real estate: 

    Barely half of the Districts reported stable or growing residential real estate activity related to the construction of new homes and sales of existing houses. New construction and existing home sales generally grew modestly; market conditions tended to vary by metropolitan area and by neighborhood within metropolitan areas. Boston, New York, and Dallas reported high levels of ongoing multifamily construction projects; Chicago reported a moderate pace of growth, and San Francisco noted a pickup in activity. 

    A little over half of the Districts reported some degree of growth in nonresidential real estate activity, with increased construction, leasing, or both tied to steady or falling vacancy rates and to rent increases. None of the Districts reported a decline in overall activity, although New York and St. Louis described activity as mixed. In addition to traditional office space, certain Districts reported increased demand for specific projects: Boston noted demand for construction in the hospitality sector, Philadelphia cited industrial and warehouse projects, Richmond noted distribution centers, and St. Louis reported new retail and mixed-use projects as well as new industrial facility construction. 
    emphasis added

    Very cautious comments on residential real estate, although nonresidential is seeing some growth.


  85. zero—hilarious!


  86. Scottmi – Reminds me of some of Buffett's deals, tho I doubt he'd get anywhere close to this one. :-)


  87. Phil—will you please quit praying to buddha and get an Elon Musk voodoo doll instead!!!!


  88. Just because the person you’re arguing with is hopelessly stupid doesn’t mean you aren’t also.

    French former First Lady says President Hollande actually detests the poor:

    Gallup Survey: 38% Think Economy Getting Better, 56% Say Worse

    EU Could Creat Problems for The Global Stock Market

    High-flying airline shares hit by Delta's caution

    In case you were wondering – here's what happens when a white man with a big gun confronts the police:

    "Place the weapon down on the ground, please. … are crossing the street illegally … I need you to put the gun down before I talk to you. … You have committed a crime … you are jaywalking. … I don't want to shoot you, I'm not here to do that. … Why are you so angry. … Why are you cursing at me?"

    Imagine how this makes the parents of unarmed kids that were shot down feel…


  89. SVM – Being a silver miner, and in China, must be a double hex squared. Can it be the most downtrodden silver miner of all? At all time lows (only back to 2009). Previously (and probably still) the lowest cost silver miner. Keeps developing itself, and China a local customer… Will it come back WHEN silver comes back?


  90. phil/TSLA, speaking of musk and voodoo, any protective bull call spreads on TSLA yet?


  91. Phil

    Liquidmetal Technologies Inc. (LQMT)

    What does this mean for the stock?

    Its good correct?

    Form 8-K for LIQUIDMETAL TECHNOLOGIES INC

    Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Termination of a Material

    Thanks


  92. Advill / Thanks.  Looking forward to futures trading


  93. Corn and wheat are down 3% today – what a catastrophe in that sector.  DBA getting tasty at $26.40.  

    AAPL down 4% at $99, that's $25Bn down the tubes in a few hours (about the size of TSLA). 

    Musk/Jabob – Come on, do you think a little voodoo is going to stop Elon?  

    New research report suggests that Tesla Motors' $5 billion gigafactory may never meet its giant production goals:

    Medical marijuana dispensaries in Berkeley will be required to donate pot to low-income residents

    This hideous chart shows Draghi's deflation nightmare is coming true in Europe

    Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel got $100,000 from Comcast before backing the merger

    A good citizenry is one that censors itself so the government doesn't have to. Ignorance is strength!

    Rand Paul's lightning-fast ISIS flip-flop: "Non-interventionist" now backs war in the Middle East

    What we're seeing is not capitalism but "ersatz capitalism," argues

    North Carolina Republicans used a photo of an innocent man to scare people into voting GOP

    Updated: Putin said that seven conditions were necessary for a Ukraine cease-fire

    Google ‘quantum’ Computer Chip to Have ‘Machines Think Like Humans’ One Day

    It may be 2021 before you make any money on investment-grade bonds again. via


  94. TSLA/Lunar – I'm waiting to see how the week goes.  I very much doubt they'll stay up in a weak market.  

    LQMT/QC – Well, they are diluting by 25% (but maybe less) in exchange for $30M in cash.   The company now has a $125M value with $13M in cash and $8M debt so I'm happy with the move as cash is good to have and, most likely they have something important they need to do with it but it's not urgent because Aspire can only buy 1M shares/day up to $30M, which would add about 20% to the trading volume and all bullish at that!  Should be a big plus for the stock and the fact that Aspire got such a crappy deal indicates LQMT is in control here – another good sign.  

    Liquidmetal Q2 Rev $153K; Prepares for Commercialization

    Liquidmetal Technologies to Present at the 2014 Gateway Conference on September 4, 2014

    LIQUIDMETAL TECHNOLOGIES INC Files SEC form 8-K, Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Termination of a Materia

    I like LQMT as a long-term gamble.  We were hoping they'd come back to 0.18 to buy again but this could be the beginning of a permanent time over 0.25.  Still, I'd like to wait for the AAPL announcement because, if the new phones aren't using LQMT, we still might get to 0.18.


  95. Oil now fully recovered from yesterday's drop!  

    VIX 12,37, TLT 117.22, XLF 23.38.  

    No stick so far and it's after 3 already.  


  96. Phil I added all

    I knew you didn't want me to build a system for you years ago. Problem with multiple computers is they then depend on the router and worst of all multiple keyboards and mice.

    I offered free so someone might recommend me, I did many promos in business because it worked. Your unique here and promote your kids, promotion is why only members have given to the fund. I don't know why this has become the America thing except everyone is self centered. People need to have faith in others but that doesn't happen if you think you are better. What I keep getting and I admit tiring of it is "if you do this or that" and after doing it you find it is never good enough and the reason it isn't working is fill in the blank, jumping through hoops just gets you tired.

    I really set up systems with thousands of monitors for the biggest companies in America and Canada, I know what got better and worse over time. I can do many things that I doubt anyone here would even try and one is building a super trading system that I can't eve use until I get out of debt. I think JPH is gutsy trading and owing but he is 28 and I am 63 so I drew all I could to pay it down, including yesterday every last dime in the fund went to Citi bank and that one is still over $10K.

    Anyone want up to 6 monitors? Lets make a deal. 4 is OK, I will keep One Video card, and the TV monitor as that is my 24" TV


  97. phil,

    another cog in the disappearing jobs…….and irbt………..

    http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Robots-help-deliver-meals-patients/story-22867113-detail/story.html


  98. Cantor becomes the latest official to cash in on Wall Street after working in Washington. Last year, former Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner joined private equity firm Warburg Pincus

    Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel got $100,000 from Comcast before backing the merger.

    A POX ON ALL THEIR HOUSES ! ! !


  99. Word is tesla is choosing Nevada as gigafactory site. Formal announcement tomorrow. Whoop dee doo


  100. Phil /Apple ;

    With the actual "collapse" of Apple is your view any opportunistic BCS to do?….a new one I mean.

     

    Trading desk………what about the chair?


  101. And there are more examples of the self centered problem. Mental problems crop up with lack of human interaction and robots serving meals especially the elderly will be a disaster. Only fools think they don't need other people and when all fails get pets.


  102. IWM closing below 116.4 is not a good thing, if that happens.



  103. CSCO/Phil – speaking of low in channel, etc. Cisco looking ok
    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=csco&ty=c&ta=1&p=d


  104. IMHO AAPL is not down 4% because pictures were hacked. It is them not having a NEW NEW THING.


  105. Phil I once again have been burned trying to play oil on my own! Inventory data suggested nothing as far as I could see and prices dropped on release, so when I saw prices climbing all afternoon from low 94's to over 95, I figured at 2PM we had a top and it would quickly retreat, but instead jumped from $95.10 to $95.83 at 2:25! Came back down some in the last hour to 95.40. So, I ask you what you think about oil prices right now? Do you see any reason for them to continue up or like me do you think a drop is coming again, barring any news from Ukraine? After AAPL dropping today I could have used the help from a correct call on oil, but so far not happening.  

    AAPL- The IPhone 6 better be something special I guess! I sure hope it is. I have used a Samsung Galaxy III for a while and it really does have a lot of issues. It crashes constantly, freezes, etc. battery drains very quickly and it just does weird stuff all the time. Displays will change for no reason. Very buggy. I am hoping to switch to the Iphone 6 if it is all it is cracked up to be. I want that bigger screen that I have gotten used to. 


  106. T/Phil – still a place for them on a buy list or not until the next market crash?


  107. Corn / Phil – This probably has something to do with this as well:

    We are swimming in corn… I guess reduction in ethanol production and HF corn syrup is having in impact! Time to switch to marijuana production it seems!


  108. I like where your head is at StJ


  109. Cantor / Albo – But Emanuel and Geithner have not been fighting tooth and nail to keep the minimum wage low, to keep people from getting healthcare, to cut food stamps for the bottom 10% or lower taxes on the top 1%. I don't begrudge Cantor for making money, good for him (although 200x the minimum wage might be too much). But he should do the same for the working poor!


  110. John Thomson from Vilas Capital summed up TSLA perfectly on CNBC before.  Wish I had the clip here.  He called TSLA 5x overvalued and finally an analyst who was logical.


  111. Cantor and Bachman are in the same league……nutjobs, way out in right field…..Wonder which outfit she will end with after she leaves congress……forgot their poor constituents who voted them in office!


  112. Rustle--but the other clown said fundamentals don't matter… the trend is your friend.. i am not Buffet.. gooble gobble…


  113. STJ – Boring day, thought I'd give you guys a reason to vent. ;-)


  114. Phil –  As I was just ignoring shadowfax, I was wondering what happened to Prof?  Did he leave?


  115. Phil,

    Could be Da Boyz chasing retail out of AAPL today!!


  116. Timothy G. was actually smart not only is Cantor dumb how dumb are the people who hired him, For hiring Bachman if it happens it is off the scale.


  117. Looks like Nevada for Tesla's gigafactory • 3:48 PM

    Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

    Execs with Tesla Motors (TSLA -1.1%) will join Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval at a press conference tomorrow in Carson City, Nevada during which it's expected that an announcement will be made that Tesla's gigafactory will be located in Nevada.

    No official statement from the EV automaker has been issued.


  118. Ignore me is OK, prof became professor and he will never leave on his own, just warming up to the next stupid thing to say without back up.


  119. TSLA/Jabo

    He made a great point though, if they are only a niche company and electric cars don't catch on, they will collapse.  If electric cars do catch on then every major auto company will produce electric cars and the competition will still keep them way overvalued.  That other analyst was an idiot, good to see that analysts now don't value fundamentals at all, but the won who put the $400 target from Stifel was trying to justify it on fundamentals.


  120. meant one, not won


  121. ATVI – following it's Call of Duty to march onto new all time highs.


  122. jabo Giga factory

    Well that was obvious and all wanting a maybe temporary job run to Reno.


  123. TSLA will be under 200 again…


  124. TSLA will be under $100 as soon as the investors graduate from High School!


  125. Robots/Mill – Slowly but surely now, like glaciers melting, more and more jobs will disappear over time.  

    AAPL/Advill – I'd hardly call $5 a "collapse".  Either they bounce back over $100 and you can go long with confidence or they go a bit lower and you have a better opportunity – either is better than blindly guessing based on a single day's movement.

    Chair/Advill – I have a nice, big, cushy leather chair – no idea who made it.  Tina has one of those Miller chairs – I just don't like them.  The desk is a modern, woody, Ikea thing where I sit in the corner part and it wraps around me – that I love. 

    Pets/Shadow – Do Tamagotchi count? 

    CSCO/Scott – They are on our perma-buy list but again, what on earth is your definition of "low in channel"?  

    They are $1 (<5%) off their all-time high!  

    Oil/Craigs – The real secret to playing oil is NOT PLAYING OIL!!!  75% of the time, it's a bad time to trade it – so we don't.  I still think oil is generally under pressure but it's too easy to manipulate down here (and this early in the monthly cycle) to make any kind of conviction bet on.  Tomorrow is inventory and of course there will be a draw as people did some holiday driving – so that will be an excuse for a small rally but, after that, it will depend on the quality of the report and THEN, next week, we get back to the part of the month where the rollover pressure begins to matter.  

    AAPL/Craigs – Me, Tina and the kids all have IPhones and Jackie has my oldest one and Maddie my 2nd oldest and Tina my most recent and we have NO problems.  We all have IPads too – no problems.  Still, I always wait at least 3 months, preferably 6 before buying a new model – that way I let the other suckers debug it and, usually, it's $100 or so cheaper with no lines at the store when I get around to it.  

    T/Scott – As with all, let's give the market a chance to correct.  

    Corn/StJ – Wow, that's crazy.  As we were saying last month, it's being pushed in all the supermarkets so I assumed they were floating in it.  As you say, shift away from corn syrup is part of the issue – also a pullback in ethanol – we'll see what happens next year.  

    Thomson/Rustle – I'd like to see that clip, missed him.  

    Prof/Burr – No Idea, haven't seen him since the blow-up he instigated.  

    AAPL/Jasu – That is very possible, may be the last time AAPL is under $100. 

    Timmy/Shadow – That guy was really impressive when I met with him.  He had a great grasp of the situation, asked really good questions and gave really good answers.  Much better guy than I had expected.


  126. 2,000.76 - they did it again!  1,999.75 on Futures though so we're not impressed.  

    Nas down half a point, 4,072 on /NQ, /TF 1,171.5 and /YM 17,073.  /NKD holding on to 15,700 so far and Dollar still strong at 82.88 – all up to Draghi tomorrow.  


  127. Phil

    At first I hated Yellen becoming chief bottle washer because I want QE to die a sudden permanent death but it seems she is also smarter than most.

    Laugh as you may but I have a way to fix health care in America, but I am branded stupid because I don't have gazillions of dollars. We agree on the economy.


  128. CSCO/Phil – this upward channel:

    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=csco&ty=c&ta=1&p=d


  129. WASHINGTON — As large swathes of the western United States continue to wither under the effects of record-breaking drought, longstanding local concerns over water use are becoming increasingly contentious, adding to the national debate over corporate right and common good.

    In recent weeks, a desert area of Southern California has seen focus suddenly turn toward a water-bottling plant owned by Nestle Waters North America, which has continued its operations despite the worsening water crisis. In an outraged action request in mid-August, the League of Conservation Voters, a prominent national lobby group, urged 50,000 of its members and consumers to petition the company on the issue.

    “Nestle … is bottling California’s water, selling it, and profiting while the state suffers from a scorching, record-breaking drought,” the groups warned in a series of emails. 

    Two years ago, state legislators did pass legislation that would have required water companies to report how much water they were bottling, but that bill was vetoed by then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.   Scow said the broader problem underpinning this lack of legislative progress is the fact that California doesn’t formally view water as a resource in the public trust. As a result, it’s one of the very few states lacking comprehensive groundwater regulations.

    “Water is pretty much treated as private property, which is crazy and grossly irresponsible,” he said.

    “This is due to industry opposition, largely from corporate agriculture, which is the big groundwater sucker in California. Most likely, the fear is that if the public knew how much groundwater there is, there would be some limitations on how much water they could take.”


  130. CSCO/Scott – Ah, I was looking at it being back at the top of this channel:


  131. Thomson/Phil

    He thought TSLA should be a 5-10B market cap.  Pointed out that the market cap is larger than John Deere which has 25B in revenue vs 2B for TSLA and that also larger than FIAT which owns FIAT, Maserati, Ferrari, Chrysler and Alfa Romeo and out of 17.5mm cars sold, TSLA is 35,000 of that.  Puts into perspective.  Too bad that in this market, facts and fundamentals don't matter.  Analysts trying to pump up stocks to get investment banking business for their firm so they get a bigger bonus seem to matter more.


  132. Corn / Phil – I guess this means that long terms farmers might have to diversify to some other crop since corn will no profitable enough. The trick is really to know what! I was only joking about MJ, but seriously, it's not like we have supply problem in another grain right now. And it's not like you can plant rice in the midwest… It's crazy that we have millions of people dying of hunger in the world and we are swimming in corn!


  133. And how can water not be a resource in the public trust? How about air?


  134. jasu1

    Think 6 monitors or 4, I7 quad processor, 24 Gig RAM, 1.5 Terabyte HD, more if wanted 5 more whatever you desire, forget the hacked on line cloud, liquid cooled, overclocked, Windows 7 professional, Office professional, power supply 50% over need, and 24/7 support forever. It has run 2.5 years no problem, and nobody to this day puts together anything faster. over 35 years experience. I even warn all on PSW when I see things that screw up, stop, or corrupt programs. Norton or whoever can't even come close, I have run nothing since October 2013 because I tried them all and nothing will save you but hard back up and a stack of DVD discs, very cheap, could be included. 


  135. Going to buy a Windows phone and switch from trading to gambling:

    http://www.engadget.com/2014/09/03/cortana-predicts-nfl-games/

    Windows Phone's Cortana assistant raised some eyebrows during the World Cup, when itaccurately predicted all but one of the knockout matches (that Germany-Brazil upsetcaught nearly everyone off-guard). Microsoft was clearly happy with that result, as it's now applying those oracle-like abilities to NFL football games. Ask Cortana (or Bing on the web) who's likely to win an upcoming match and you'll quickly get a favorite.

    Wait, trading seems like gambling sometimes!


  136. /CL -Phil, Wow in one of my more colossally stupid moves, I thought today was inventory day for oil, forgetting it is a holiday week and looked at last weeks report, then thought the move at 10:30 was a market response! I then made a couple of hundred bucks and thinking I had the day figured out, got greedy and played for some more! I am vowing here and now that I am done trying to figure out futures on my own. Between that and my paper losses on AAPL today, I now know that my hedges are inadequate. SQQQ Jan 35 calls barely budged with a 25 point drop in Nasdaq

    Well I just caught a break and /CL just took a very nice dive for me to bring me back to just about even. Whew. 


  137. Good article pstas – not sure I agree with Fukuyama on everything but some good paragraphs in there:

    But Madisonian democracy frequently fails to perform as advertised. Elite insiders typically have superior access to power and information, which they use to protect their interests. Ordinary voters will not get angry at a corrupt politician if they don’t know that money is being stolen in the first place. Cognitive rigidities or beliefs may also prevent social groups from mobilizing in their own interests. For example, in the United States, many working-class voters support candidates promising to lower taxes on the wealthy, despite the fact that such tax cuts will arguably deprive them of important government services.

    [...] Similarly, middle-class groups are usually much more willing and able to defend their interests, such as the preservation of the home mortgage tax deduction, than are the poor. This makes such universal entitlements as Social Security or health insurance much easier to defend politically than programs targeting the poor only.

    Finally, liberal democracy is almost universally associated with market economies, which tend to produce winners and losers and amplify what James Madison termed the “different and unequal faculties of acquiring property.” This type of economic inequality is not in itself a bad thing, insofar as it stimulates innovation and growth and occurs under conditions of equal access to the economic system. It becomes highly problematic, however, when the economic winners seek to convert their wealth into unequal political influence. They can do so by bribing a legislator or a bureaucrat, that is, on a transactional basis, or, what is more damaging, by changing the institutional rules to favor themselves — for example, by closing off competition in markets they already dominate, tilting the playing field ever more steeply in their favor.


  138. TSLA went to a gambling state and not the big name area either. This should give reason to caution as they are showing mostly with other peoples money! 

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-chooses-nevada-battery-factory-190155567.html


  139. And that doesn't include college:

    http://twocents.lifehacker.com/the-average-cost-of-raising-a-child-in-major-cities-1629374463

    Parenthood can be expensive. In fact, the national average cost of raising a child to the age of 18 is about nearly a quarter of a million dollars—$245,340 to be exact. Of course, depending on where you live, that number will vary with cost of living. NerdWallet quantified the average cost of raising a child in 288 major cities.

    Check the tables in the article. Scary…


  140. One thing is given in today's America and weather it is Kick starter that didn't back Phil either or any new business what you need is backers and that is what I want to get. Someone who believes I deserve a chance to prove I can do it and that is anything you want done. I will go anywhere just to try and expect nothing but food and shelter. I don't qualify for all those hand outs because I own my house and I mean no loans or leans on it. Yesterday I checked 2 houses for sale, a weird one is $565 and a smaller than  mine is $699,000. I don't think either will sell for close to that, but that is my subdivision and that means I may have net worth more than some here. Doesn't mean I have any money to do anything but all this is trying to show I have not given up and will do dam near anything to get out of the mess. I am not lazy but don't think for one second I don't get your messages, I studied that and age teaches. I was taught to be a good actor not a reactor. Problem is that worked 30 years ago and today it is a blame game, or your excuses why. 


  141. StJ / 250
    Interesting that there is another article right below it that Mothers lose $250K in lost wages raising a kid to the same age, so I guess it's more like 500K ?


  142. These two houses for sale make me laugh. The 699K hose is a doctor who a couple yeas ago got bailed out by St Johns Hospital as an out patient clinic now open a couple part days per week. The other 565K was a Mormon Bishop that excommunicated a pregnant girl I knew and had the house listed for $1.4 million. He actually said at a HOA meeting I was violent while never hitting anyone. I walked away without a word. Now his kids have disowned him and it seems the LDS church hopes he leaves. I promise this attitude will end badly because the masses have the last word, right now kind of silent. 


  143. Shadow

    Do you have a wholesale / direct source for the computer components? I built a Bitcoin GPU-mining rig about 18 months ago, and sourced those components from NewEgg. It was my first attempt at building a computer but I had plenty of search engine resources to assist with this. It seemed that component cooling was the one aspect that required relatively greater expertise. Everything else seemed simple enough. I doubt that the unit I built was much cheaper that anything that could be configured and purchased from a reputable online source. So, after much digression, my question is: how would you differentiate yourself from the other online suppliers of specialty-configured computers? Would your products just be bigger / faster? Would there be preferable markets (trading, gaming etc.) you'd target? I ask these questions because you have the expertise, and I'd like to assist you with getting this off the ground.


  144. Phil

    I  do apologize for not getting back to you on the historical research for the PSW blog book (blok?) that we'd previously discussed. I got caught up in research for a KickStarter campaign and other ventures, and lost track of time. I'll still look into it as time permits. Sorry.


  145. Mothers / Wombat – 2 kids later, it does feel like it… Add to that the fact that in general women make less than men for the same jobs and that probably adds some more!


  146. ~~Decadence

    I bought some components from Newegg because they had the lowest price 1/4 what I paid for the first 12 gig when I decided to double up RAM. I can get EVGA products lower than any retailer but to get wholesale you need to build multiples as everyone is trying a better price. If you built it I promise you paid about 25% or more less and although I know a few are offering mining computers they are at least making the same markup or more which you can only charge so much to stop the is it worth the effort. There are not people specializing in trading systems. I am very experienced in getting dealerships but that takes money invested at a chance.


  147. ~~Decadence

    My email is nsenape@Hotmail.com and tel. is 307/353-2501. I tend to not answer unknowns but after 6 rings I listen.


  148. Just to mention only majors I got Direct TV, Dish net, and Verizon dealerships and some you would have no clue but Yamaha, a piece of crap company.


  149. Some global markets are really underperforming for different reasons:

    http://shortsideoflong.com/2014/09/august-sentiment-summary/

    Chinese Stocks

    No wonder people invested in real estate!

    How about Russia and Brazil:

    Russian & Brazilian Equities

    Not so hot! Maybe they will be horses to ride if we ever correct in the US!


  150. Shadow / Computers

    Sent you an email. Will chat tomorrow.


  151. This shit is out of control! The evening news insists on calling him Mr. Obama not President Obama. Disrespect of our leader used to be treason.


  152. OK now local news, a man outside a casino had a hand gun, as stated on the news he was considered not  dangerous but they shot him anyway and died at the hospital. Fuck the cops!


  153. Phil

    You likely don't remember your post on crime in ID, Blackfoot***** Well this shit isn't even crime, you want to limit guns start with the fucking cops!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 


  154. Discrimination of wages by sex ID 45 and WY 46, OK GOP you proved your almost the biggest ass holes, a few to go.


  155. decatence

    This is a problem my message got out to others, what shit trying to undermine everything. I even lost your e-mail address.


  156. Hello,

    I am new here. How do I access the virtual portofolios?

    Thanks.


  157. Believe it or ? I make a contact and I get hacked by David the Mormon I tried to be friendly with, not through PSW but my e-mail was hacked. He actually thinks I will share trading systems with him, what are they mafia Mormons? What a scum bucket, at least I figured it out.


  158. Wow! I wish I made this all up, I talked to David and all I can say is unbelievable Obama is the problem. I think Obama has been a wimp but he was hacking? I must be important.


  159. Phone/stj – good book:

    the smart money

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0743277147/


  160. From Bloomberg:  Orders Rebound in Sign of Returning Growth  -Germany factory orders surge – Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 4.6 percent from June, when they slid a revised 2.7 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s the biggest increase since June 2013

    Domestic manufacturing orders rose 1.7 percent in July from the previous month while export orders surged 6.9 percent, driven by a 14.6 percent increase in investment-goods demand from outside the euro region, the ministry said.    BUT,  Basic goods orders were up 0.3 percent and consumer goods demand dropped 2.9 percent in July.

    Conclusion – Depite the positive headline and spin consumers are still not spending.


  161. Good morning!

    Asia was mixed with Shanghai up 0.8% but the rest were slightly red. Europe is mixed but flattish and our Futures are flat – all waiting for Draghi to do something wonderful.  

    7:45 is the magic moment for the ECB decision but the BOE gets first crack at 7am though it's very doubtful they'll do anything.  

    Ahead of Draghi, we can use /ES 2,000 and /TF 1,170 for bulllish bets which would be confirmed by 4,075 on /NQ and 17,050 on /YM with very tight stops if any of them fail and just looking for quick profits ahead of the meeting, where shorting becomes a better idea (sell on the news, even if we do get a pop). 


  162. SPY 5 MINUTETSLA/Rustle – Fundamentals, how quaint!  Good luck with those, right? 

    A radio guy last night asked me if we caused the Nasdaq sell-off yesterday (because the morning post was anti-Nasdaq).  That's a scary thought!   Meanwhile, AAPL is $97.50 on the dot this morning, so who knows?  In a market this thinly traded, maybe our little trading group does have undue influence?  

    Corn/StJ – That's why these gluts don't usually last more than one season although we do tend to subsidize corn so it's not the farmers that are getting crushed so much as the DOA.  It would be better to be stuck with extra pot than extra corn and we haven't even discussed the idea of becoming the World's #1 marijuana exporter!  

    Actually, I've been expecting that and I assume PM et al will eventually get into that game, maybe when another 5 or 6 states legalize we'll start seeing name-brand pot.  PM is a pretty good buy, in fact – they pay a 4.6% dividend at $85.40 and the 200 dma is at $82.87, so a good floor and you can buy the stock and sell the 2016 $85 calls for $4.80 and the $75 puts for $4.85 for net $75.75/75.38, a nice 12% discount while you collect another $3.76 + 0.94 in dividends, which is another 6.2%.  Nice, conservative play, though just selling the $75 puts for $4.85 is better than the dividend and is pretty margin ($7.50) efficient too. 

    America/Pstas – Sounds like we need miss Lizzy in 2016!  

    God I love that woman!  


  163. Cortana/StJ – That's great is MSFT is getting into the predictions business.  As with anything else that people follow, it can lead to some very nice betting distortions that we can use to our advantage.  Hopefully they apply it to stocks.  Hey, that's an idea for a show – Mad Money with Cortana!  MSFT would certainly sponsor the show.  We could just sit there and ask the phone for stock picks – even if it sucks – it can't be worse than Cramer!  cool

    Oil/Craigs – Well, it's an experience thing.  We learn to be cautious after being burned a few times and, most importantly, you seem to be learning the joy of getting out even, which is just as good as a win after a wrong-way bet.


  164. Mighty Nasdaq slayed by AAPL!


  165. Failures/StJ – All political systems ultimately fail when the elite seize too much power.  If you reward strength - the strong take over, if you reward knowledge - the smart take over, if you reward bloodlines, the hemophiliacs and the inbred take over, if you reward popularity – the popular take over and, if you reward money – the moneyed take over.  All roads (so far in history) lead to disaster – it's just a matter of when.  

    Ideally, our political system was meant to prevent that and there was supposed to be a system of checks and balances that gave power to the people and, specifically, the disenfranchised were to be kept from being marginalized.  But that system has been dismantled and turned into a joke of what it was supposed to be and now we live in a Corporate Kleptocracy that masquerades as Capitalism.  What scares me is how little people object to it – even as they are being destroyed by that same system.  

    TSLA/Shadow – They need a state where they can quietly dump their waste!  That factory is going to have some very nasty waste products.  

    Natural graphite mined in China accounts for most of the material used in batteries worldwide, according to Industrial Minerals Data. China, the biggest graphite producer, is closing dozens of mines and processing plants even as global demand soars.

    The Tesla purchasing strategy is unique in the battery industry, according to Sam Jaffe, an analyst at Navigant Research. To make it work, analysts who follow the industry say Tesla may need to turn to graphite mines in Canada that have yet to be built. For cobalt, they say Tesla may have to go beyond existing Canadian output and look at prospective supplies in Minnesota and Idaho.

    The Gigafactory is important for commodity markets because of its sheer scale. While Tesla has yet to select a site in the western U.S. for the plant, plans that were first revealed in February envisage the production of enough rechargeable lithium-ion batteries each year by 2020 to power 500,000 Tesla vehicles. The factory would singlehandedly double world output of lithium-ion units.

    Sourcing the materials on that scale in North America may disrupt commodity markets, said Stuart Burns, co-founder of Chicago-based pricing and analysis company Metal Miner.

    The factory is so big that without more cobalt supply there will be a global shortage, according to Burns. Right now, about half the world’s cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a war-ravaged nation whose mining industry has been beset by allegations of corruption.

    No wonder Musk is running away to Mars, he's going to leave the Earth a total mess!  


  166. Parenthood/StJ – I don't need no stinkin' tables to tell me that.  $5 a day for lunch in High School is another quick $1,000 expense this year.  2 more years and she'll NEED a car – $245K sounds low to me – does that include One Direction tickets?  

    Futures ticking up nicely now.  2,004 on /ES and 1,173.50 on /TF.  /YM just popped 17,100 so watch that line to hold and /NQ is 4,080, so watch 4,075 now, which was our shorting line yesterday.  


  167. Home/Shadow – Have you considered a reverse mortgage?  Might work for you as you'll get a monthly income.  Essentially, it's an adjustable-rate loan for 1/2 your home value and you can take part as an up-front cash amount and the rest is amortized and paid to you monthly.  If you end up selling the home, you just settle up with the bank (though you have to be careful with fees and penalty clauses) and keep the balance.  

    Project/Decade – No worries, if you have time, that's great but no pressure.  I'm interested to hear about your KickStarter experience, though.  

    Shooting/Shadow – Not dangerous?  

     — The suspected armed robber killed in a gun battle with Reno police outside a casino resort was a 42-year-old Idaho man who was wanted on drug charges in southern Nevada and had been living in a Reno motel, authorities said Tuesday.

    Bingaman allegedly shot a shopper who tried to intervene during a robbery about 5 p.m. Sunday at a CVS Pharmacy, the sheriff's office said. He fled in a truck and led police on a chase, exchanging gunfire before exiting the truck and heading toward the entrance of the Peppermill before he was shot, the statement said.


    Re
     

    I know it's fun to rush to judgment, Shadow, but please try to get the facts straight before condemning the police for doing their job.  I see you are not at all upset that a guy with a record had a gun in the first place.

    Portfolios/Gatok – Welcome!  We have the Virtual Portfolios tab on top and we often review them in chat on Thursdays or Fridays and I will this week.

    Consumers/Den – Looking at the above income charts, can you blame them?  

    Big Chart – No technical damage – Yet.  

    OK, time to stop being long in the Futures! 

    Can't really play again until Draghi goes in 20 mins.  


    • S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% and DJIA and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.25%, with the ECB rate/asset purchase decision due at 7:45 ET and the ADP jobs report for August shortly after.
    • Europe's marginally higher and Asia was mostly lower overnight.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up one basis point at 2.41% and gold is ahead $3 per ounce to $1,273.
    • The Bank of England leaves policy unchanged, its bank rate at 0.5% and the QE program dormant at £375B.
    • All eyes are on the ECB's policy meeting today, which will decide whether an overvalued euro and tensions with Russia will lead to further stimulus measures.
    • Although most economists expect the ECB to keep interest rates on hold and refrain from large-scale QE at least for today, many banks predict that Mario Draghi may commit to buying ABSs.
    • Draghi previously announced at Jackson hole that the ECB's Governing Council will "use all the available instruments" to deliver price stability over the medium term.

     

    • The Bank of Japan held to its upbeat view on the economy and heavy monetary stimulus this morning, despite the recent stings from a 3% sales tax hike in April.
    • The projection of economic recovery saw consumption benefiting from a tightening job market resulting in higher wages.
    • Leaving its policy framework unchanged, the central bank also pledged to increase base money by 60T-70T yen ($571B-$666B) per year via aggressive asset purchases to reflate its declining economy.
    • Traders participating in Argentina's CDS auction have valued the country's restructured bonds at $0.395 to the dollar.
    • The final results were in line with analyst expectations of around $0.40, slightly below the market price of Argentina's euro-denominated Par bonds.
    • ETFs: ARGT
    • U.S. regulators have approved of the proposed liquidity rules to safeguard banks in case of a financial crunch.
    • The rules are requiring large U.S. banks to load up on ultra-safe assets to ensure enough cash and securities to fund their operations for 30 days. Separate liquidity rules for foreign banks will be drawn up at a later date.
    • Big banks will need to hold a total of about $2.5T in easy-to-sell assets by 2017, which would result in a $100B shortfall if the threshold applied today.
    • Related tickers: JPMCBACWFCGSMSBKSTTZION
    • Previously: Bank regulators to vote on new liquidity rules

    J & J to accelerate Ebola vaccine development

    • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJannounces that it will fast track the development of its new combination vaccine regimen against Ebola and collaborate with its partners in global health to deliver relief aid to help combat the current outbreak.
    • Its vaccine candidate is a prime-boost regimen where one vector primes the immune system and the other boosts it. The product features two components based on the AdVactechnology from Crucell N.V. (part of Janssen) and the MVA-BN technology from the Danish biotech firm Bavarian Nordic. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) is providing direct funding and preclinical services to bring the program forward. Human clinical trials may start as soon as early 2015.
    • Crucell and Bavarian Nordic are both developing preventative vaccines against filoviruses, including Ebola, with the aforementioned support from NIAID. More than 1,000 humans have received Crucell's adeno-platform-based vaccine in clinical trials. Bavarian Nordic's MVA-BN platform is the basis for the smallpox vaccine registered in Canada and Europe with a safety record of use in more than 7,300 people.

    Costco comparable sales at 7%

    • Costco's (NASDAQ:COST) net sales grew 10% on year to $8.8B in Aug.
    • Comparable sales +7%, topping consensus of +4.8%. U.S. +7%, international +6%.
    • Excluding the effects of gasoline prices and currency swings, comparable sales increased 8%; U.S. +7%, international +8%.
    • The company reported Q4 net sales of $34.8B and FY14 net sales of $110.2B
    • Press Release

    Mobileye EPS in-line, beats on revenue

    • Mobileye (NYSE:MBLY): Q2 EPS of $0.05 in-line.
    • Revenue of $33.7M (+90.4% Y/Y) beats by $0.56M.
    • Press Release

    Intel shows off smart bracelet

    • Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has unveiled a high-tech smart bracelet featuring a 1.6-inch curved touchscreen made of sapphire glass.
    • The bracelet has 3G capabilities, can operate independently of a smartphone and be charged wirelessly or via USB cable.
    • Intel calls the device MICA, which stands for "My Intelligent Communication Accessory" and will begin selling the bracelet in Barney's stores by the end of the year.

  168. ECB cuts deposit rate to NEGATIVE and Key rate now 0.05% (not negative).

    That's popped the Dollar to 82.25 so far and ditched the Euro to $1.305 but should test $1.30.  Have to wait and see how this plays out but our Futures are moving up a bit more, as expected (but wasn't worth risking) and now I'd like to see if we get another good shorting opportunity because this is a silly reason to rally (and also seems desperate).  

    Press conference still to come in another half hour.  


  169. Does look desperate! Europe really is in bad shape now. Kind of admitting now that their austerity program has not worked so well.


  170. So if I deposit money in Euro's, I lose money?


  171. Yes, every day your bank account goes lower!  


  172. So, wouldn't people want to just hoard cash and put it under their mattresses? Why leave it in their accounts? Or is it just for new deposits? 


  173. Monetary  policies will come certainly, deflation is by far the biggest fear right now, and many countries in Europe have a high rate in competitive, infrastructure  and public deficit ( Business Insider today´s note).

    With exception of France, most europeans economies are ready for a monetary – FX push.