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Testy Tuesday – Apple Will Give the S&P a Pass or Fail

iWatchToday is the day.

There’s a lot riding on Apple’s massive iPhone 6 and iWatch event. Since the first iPad in 2010, the big question on everyone’s mind has been “what comes next?” Apple updates its lineup on a fairly predictable schedule, but products that push the company into entirely new categories have been few and far between.

That hasn’t hurt Apple financially by any stretch; in fact, it continues to make more on each device it sells than just about anyone. Still, a constant stream of promises from Apple’s top execs have drawn out the idea that something big is just around the corner.  That something big is very likely making its debut at Apple’s event next Tuesday, which kicks off at 1pm EST / 10am PST and we'll be covering it live today during our Live Trading Webinar (1pm EST).

iPhone 6On top of the rumor pile are expectations for:

  1. Bigger IPhones (to go after Samsung market share) + 10%
  2. NFC and Mobile Payments (transaction revenues) + 20%
  3. iOS8 (pushing iCloud) + 5%
  4. iWatch (new product) + 20%
  5. Apple TV (home integration) + 10%

So those are the most likely announcements and they have the POTENTIAL (if all goes well) to add 65% to AAPL's already massive market cap.  Just enough, in fact, to make AAPL the world's first $1Tn company in 2016.  We're already playing AAPL bullish in two of our PSW Portfolios but we have been since they were $450 ($64 post-split) and we're already up 50% (AAPL was our Stock of the Year selection), so we hedged a bit at $105.  

NFCThe question for us is – do we remove those hedges in anticipation of AAPL's 2 consecutive 30% annual runs that we are predicting but, with AAPL already up 25% this year at $100 and having already been rejected at 30% ($105), we're keeping our partial cover – at least until we see the public's reaction to the new product line

While it could be argued that a lot of good news is priced in, I think NFC/Mobile Payments is being completely missed along with the impact it will have on the company's revenues.  Already there are talks of deals being in place with V, MC and AXP so it's not a question of WILL iPhones become a new way of making payments but how much payment volume they will generate.  

The Big 3 credit card firms account for roughly $8Tn a year in transactions and AAPLs customers skew to the top 20% who spend 80% of that money so $6.4Tn paid by credit card and let's say, that iPhone users decide to use their phones for just 5% of those transactions and let's say AAPL gets just a 1% transaction fee for the process – that's still $3.2Bn dropping to their bottom line (+10%) – not bad at all! 

But I gave them a +20% because I was at the mall last week and I gave my teenage girls $20 each and neither one of them had pockets and I was worried they would lose their money but I certainly wasn't worried they would lose their phones.  I would have been much more comfortable transferring $20 to each of their phones to spend instead.  

Now consider money transfers that can then be made by parents and grandparents around the world.  Now what about employers to employees and now consider the Billions of people in the World with limited access to banks – but they have phones!  

This is no small thing, this is likely to be World-changing.  In theory, phone transactions will be more secure than credit card transactions, especially with biometric IDs added in.  NFC systems are already at most of the places you shop as well as vending machines and now, any street vendor with a phone can accept money from your phone.  You won't need money, or your wallet for that matter – just your phone — or your iWatch.  

Ah ha – get it?  See how AAPL is taking over the Universe?  I know it sounds strange to think of not needing cash or credit cards (and there's no reason your IDs and insurance info can't be on your phone too, all safely cloned at home or the cloud in case you lose it) but remember when we needed to have our checkbooks with us?  Some of you may even remeber needing billfolds or coin purses too!  

The Problem with Cash and the Rise of the Digital Dollar

In case you missed our earlier entries this year, we still love AAPL as a long-term play and you can still sell the 2016 $80 puts for $5 for a net $75 entry and that can be paired with the 2016 $100/120 bull call spread at $5.70 for net 0.70 on the $20 spread so you get almost all of the upside on a move over $100 (with a max profit of 2,757% on cash) and your worst case is you end up owning AAPL at net $80.70, which is 18% off the current price.  

If AAPL is somehow disappointing today and the stock falls lower (and we're still expecting a broad market correction to give us better prices anyway), you should be able to get much better prices on this spread so I'd go light on the first round and, HOPEFULLY, we get a chance at a cheaper entry down the road.  


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  1. nflx?

  2. Good morning everyone! The link for today's webinar (1pm Eastern) is:

    Event number (for those who have trouble accessing using the link, or are using the mobile app):

    668 511 825

  3. Good morning!  

  4. Oil Lines

    R3 – 95.48
    R2 – 94.52
    R1 – 93.72
    PP – 92.76
    S1 – 91.96
    S2 – 91
    S3 – 90.20

    So far today PP has been the floor!

  5. Phil; I noticed in the Income Portfolio you are short the October 84.29 Call. Why not roll before the announcement to take advantage of the volatility?  Seems to be big risk to the downsize if the stock takes off.

  6. We are going to need bigger hedges:

    That Higgs boson that everyone was so eager to find last year? As it turns out, it could be the end of everything — in the wrong circumstances, anyway. In his upcoming book Starmus, Stephen Hawking notes that the once-elusive particle could become less than perfectly stable at energy levels of 100 billion giga-electronvolts or higher. If it gets to that state, it could trigger a vacuum bubble that would expand at the speed of light, eventually collapsing all space and time; you wouldn't even know the disaster was coming if the event happened on Earth.

  7. As I was saying yesterday:

    Oil plunged today below $100 a barrel, a psychological threshold that, if it holds, threatens the rulers of Russia and numerous OPEC states that rely on higher prices to mollify their populations. A critical question, then, is whether we are looking at a sustained period of lower prices or a blip before a swing back up.

    The price of Brent crude—the type that dominates international trade—fell as low as $99.36 today, its lowest price in 14 months. (West Texas Intermediate, the oil produced in the United States, plummeted to $91.70 a barrel, frighteningly close to its own $90 threshold.)

    Russian president Vladimir Putin, for instance, needs an oil price of roughly $110 to $117 a barrel to cover state expenses. With some fiscal finagling, he can weather bad days like these, as long as they don’t last for long.

  8. Phil/XRT,  I am in the 93/88 Bear put spread @ (2) 4.68-1.57. showing a profit on the short 88's of $144 and a loss on the 93's of $48. Still hold? Thanks

  9. Good Morning!

  10. A quick note on gas prices.  During our trip we had one gas stop in Canada where we paid $5.62/ US gallon.  Not the highest on the trip but way above the US average price.  Again, this was for premium.

  11. StJ:  Uh oh:  

    In a way, in fact, black holes are nothing but gravity. As Einstein showed, gravity is just the warping of spacetime, and black holes are big spacetime sinks. All the matter falling in gets homogenized into nothingness, leaving behind nothing but warped spacetime geometry.

    As black holes swallow more matter, they get bigger, of course. But curiously, it’s the black hole’s surface area, not its volume, that expands in proportion to how much stuff the black hole consumes. In some way, the black hole’s event horizon — the spherical boundary demarcating the points of no return for objects falling in — keeps a record of how much a black hole has eaten. More technically, a black hole’s surface area depends on its entropy, as John Archibald Wheeler’s student Jacob Bekenstein showed in the 1970s.

    Holography entangles quantum physics with gravity
    SEPTEMBER 08, 2014

  13. Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) was reiterated as Outperform and the price target was raised to $600 from $530 at RBC Capital Markets.


  14. SFTBY – Finally catching some bids on Alibaba expectations.

  15. Now HD is hacked.  I'm telling you, we need to move to smart-phone payments before it's too late!  

    Futures rejected at our usual shorting lines: 17,100, 2,000, 4,100 and 1,770.  If the market wasn't likely to roll over, I'd be much more bullish about AAPL but, if anything, AAPL needs to save 2,000 on the S&P today. 

    Oil $93.40 after a BS attempt at $94, gold $1,254, silver $18.98, copper $3.1285, nat gas popped to $4 on more Ukraine nonsense, gasoline $2.56 with the Dollar at 84.40 (WOW!), Euro $1.288, Pound $1.609 and 105.26 Yen to the Buck.  

    AAPL/Income Portfolio, Options – Yes but we are long 70 of the 2016 $85.71/107.14 bull call spreads at $4.50 and covered with 35 of the Oct $84.14 calls we sold for $9.25.  Since AAPL is at $99 now, those short calls are worth $11 if we expire here, not a big loss and well worth locking in our 2x $9.50 gains at $99, right?  On top of that, we only sold 20 short puts so we have 16 months to roll the short calls along and sell puts as well to roll them higher and, worst comes to worst, we're very happy to buy more longs (like the trade above) to give us more upside.  So, given all that and considering we're still worried about a major market sell-off – why exactly do you think the big risk is having protection vs going 100% bullish into an uncertain announcement?  

    Hawking/StJ – I hate to say it but I think he's losing it a bit.  Maybe he's just having fun but he keeps making statements about aliens and planet-killing black holes and now unstable particles – not the kind of stuff that Einstein was contemplating in his later years.  It's an infinite universe (well, for us non-believers, anyway) and that means that if it were possible for there to be unstable particles that wipe out the universe – it's not very likely it wouldn't have already happened.  

    XRT/Jomp – I suppose that's Sept?  If so, you should be happy to get out even if you don't believe in it anymore - keep that in mind.  I still very strongly feel that we're going to get that nice breakdown.  You're in the spread for net $3.11 and it's a $5 spread and XRT is $89 at the moment so it would be $4 (up 30%) if it expires here.  That's the nature of a spread, you're not going to realize your profits unless you stick it out and if you don't have the conviction (or the personality) to stick it out, then you shouldn't be playing them in the first place.  Keep that in mind for next time.  

    You can't enter a bull or bear call spread and sit there stressing out about the P&L your broker shows you at any given moment – that's all BS.  You are either on or off track for your goal and, in the case of the Sept $93/88 bear call spread at $3.11, your goal is a finish below $89.89 10 days from today.  There is no P&L until you buy it back or it expires but, if you buy it back now, you become the sucker paying the premium and that happens only because you didn't understand the spread before you got into it because this is EXACTLY what it was supposed to do.  

    In our STP, we bought back the short $88s when XRT spiked higher and now we have the Sept $93 puts (now $4.25) and we added the Oct $93/88 bull call spread (20 of them, in fact) because I STRONGLY believe in my original target – now that we've had another month to analyze retail data.  

  16. Phil, Those XRT spreads were Oct

  17. Phil

    How much is AAPL paying you?

  18. You know this is year 1999 again when RBC raises PT on NFLX to 600 and it was already at 530.  Reason is for the international roll out.  Problem with that logic is the reason his target and other firms targets were raised were already because of the international roll out when they announced it back in May.

  19.  I need to get some analyst friends with loose lips.  BTW, to be clear, the 530 original target was because of the international roll out.

  20. stjeanluc – “We are going to need bigger hedges.”


  21. Rustle123 – Somebody's drinking a lot of Kool-Aid.

  22. phil.

    looking at your aapl trade from the post and tos is showing 1.40 vs 70 ……i am looking to use this as a cover for my sht calls….am i reading this right…or did you mean the 82.86 put….tks

  23. diamond

    Bigger hedges If the first 10 minutes repeats the volume and direction you will need the real zero hedge below.

  24. Phil – The idea of having my 'cash' in a cloud instead of my pant pocket is a concern and though I know we are headed towards a cashless society, I will continue buying pants with pockets for the forseeable future….. :)

  25. ….though I would consider selling the stock of any money belt manufactuer….

  26. FU RBC!!!!

  27. 1020 cashless

    1 unless they become a bank AAPL will not get 1% of transactions, the fees are burning many businesses.

    2 many don't have credit, some can't trust themselves with credit cards.

    3 street vendors can't afford the costs.

    There is a all cash underground and it will stay for a while or until wealth is redistributed evenly.

  28. shadowfax – Re: “bigger hedges”

    I was referencing stjeanluc’s witticism.

  29. Smartphone payment / Phil – As we know now, I don't think that anything is safe. Many times in that past hackers got through to the Master Card and Visa databases. I doubt that it will be any safer with smartphones. If it's on the cloud, it's exposed one way or the other. I guess biometrics verification is the only way to truly secure payments but then I'll be worried that people will rob me and pull my eyes out to use my phone to withdraw cash!

  30. STJ – Funny  ……but who knows.

  31. phil………..tks i covered my 35x sht jan 5 91.43 w the post trade………figured i could always roll them thru to jan 16 where i have the 100-120 bcs selling the 81.43 put for net 1.20…………………..

  32. I am putting 3 things together

    Cashless, AAPL world, and the opening sell off was serious. Hawkins may be loosing it but the good times on the backs of the depressed will implode. When?

  33. If other companies were like TSLA, the news could look like this:

    Burger King announces it might have an edible burger in 2-3 years

    Merck announces it could develop drug to  cure cancer and it might get through Phase 1 in 2-3 years

    LULU announces it might decide to sell company in 2-3 years

    GPRO announces it might do a deal with Sony or Panasonic in 2-3 years.

    Again 1999?

  34. Woops, down we go!  

    Gas/Sibe – Ouch!  

    Black hole/ZZ – Like this:

    NFLX/Jabob – These things are getting really ridiculous.  

    XRT/Jomp – October?!?  Well then that's just a matter of whether or not you still think retail is weak.  

    AAPL/Shadow – Well it's been my stock of the year two years in a row so, had you followed my calls rather than bashed AAPL every time someone mentions them, they would have been paying you very well.  

    I know, Shadow, that for this whole ride, you have had not a single good thing to say about AAPL and that you have pulled out every possible rumor to come up with negatives and I don't mind that, as it's important people hear both sides of a story but when I see a fantastic stock with little downside and huge upside potential, no one has to "pay" me to tell people it's great – it's my job to find stocks like these for people.  I'm sorry this is your personal white whale but there's nothing strange going on here – it's just a much, much better company than you give it credit for.  

    NFLX/Rustle – Unfortunately, it's unshortable because of these ridiculous spikes but, coming up to $500, I think I may be willing to start a conviction short up to $600 if I have to.  

    Our last short on NFLX was back on 8/15 and that one closed at $10 but the roll worked out when they dipped back a week later.  

    NFLX/Rustle – I'm sure they are spending $50M on another show.  $460 is just too insane not to short, the next week $460s can be sold for $6.50 – that's my choice but, of course, VERY DANGEROUS!!!  

    At the moment, I wouldn't want to short naked calls but you can buy the NFLX Jan $530/480 bear put spread for $29 and that pays off below $500 up to $21 profit (72%) so it's a good way to go if you have the conviction to buy back the short puts if NFLX pops higher (they are now $34) or, if the long calls (now $53) should drop below $30, the move would be to roll to a $30 2016 bear spread, like the $560/500 bear puts spread that is now $36 (and then you can sell the $700 calls, now $20).  Anyway, very painful if NFLX ends up getting to $800 but that would be a truly insane $46Bn market cap (now $29Bn) and $29Bn is ridiculous enough.  

    AAPL/Mill – Well it popped $1.50 since I wrote the post so you're not getting the best price right now but that is the spread I meant.  Selling the higher put will get you more money but make sure you REALLY want to own AAPL for that net price.  You could also just buy the bull spread and only sell puts if it comes down in price – if it doesn't come down in price – the spread still pays 300% by itself.  

    Cash/1020 – That's going to be up to AAPL, they will need to convince us that phone money is as safe or safer than cash.  It will take years of promotion and education, but what a win if they accomplish it.  

    Big bounce off 17,000 on /YM already, nice, quick money though.  1,990 on /ES, 4,077 on /NQ and 1,160 on /TF all held so we'll watch those lines for breakdowns next.  

    Bounce lines are /YM 17,020 and 040, /ES 1,993 and 996, /NQ 4,080 and 085 and /TF 1,163 and 166 

    Biometrics/StJ – Last year, I spoke to Rustle about having some of his military friends work on an App that would run a random number encryption key (like a fob) on the phone which, combined with your thumbprint and your password on the phone, would be miles more secure than a credit card.  You could still get your thumbs hacked off and be tortured for your password and forced to give up your phone, I suppose – but then again people can rob you now and take your money - if they are so determined.  The idea is to just stop making it so easy to do it electronically as it is now.  

    You're welcome Mill, hope it goes well.  

    New/Rustle – No, you are way too conservative:  Burger King would announce it would sell burgers with negative calories and raise $5Bn for a Giga-farm that makes the magic cows.  

  35. Gigafarm/Phil

    They should be announcing that.  I think any company that announces anything with the word giga is good for a 20% up.  Hmm, that was like in 1999 when any company said they were going online or developing an internet site they would go up with no business plan, earnings or revenues.

  36. Hack off your thumb, pull out your eyes…sheesh, I will clone and print you out 3D.  I don't need you!

    Good morning!

  37. I remember a CEO of an upstart company who came on CNBC in 1999 and said that they were unique because they offered free shipping.  Talk about a low barrier of entry !

  38. Bullish RBC Capital call boosts Netflix • 10:18 AM

    Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

    Netflix (NFLX +1%) is on the rise after RBC CapitalNFLX)+PT+Boosted+to+$600+at+RBC+Capital/9815856.html" target="_blank">boosts its price target on the Outperform-rated stock to a cool $600.

    The investment firm sees a significant growth opportunity for the streamer in Europe and forecasts a 10%-20% penetration rate in key markets.

    Netflix has very strong brand reputation with consumers in the U.S., according to new tracking. Churn rates should dip, predicts RBC.

    Read comments

  39. Phil AAPL

    I have said many times it is a good stock and the money machine is real. You make it an Apple world and there are not enough rich people. My financial situation has been I couldn't play AAPL stock or any of your trades until it dropped below $100 and the second fact is now I still can't play anything, they took way too long while I kept the medical community in the green.

    Saying Apple will not get 1% of transactions is based on credit card charges and if IPhone owners are willing to pay an extra 1% to use their phones that will work but businesses will not, in Europe many places have stopped taking cards because they can't raise prices for card users. Legally I question if they can add costs in the US and their negotiating with MC and visa gives the hint. They need to bring back the stashed money and become a credit company, not a bad idea of what to do with the money.

  40. Gotta give Jimbo credit for this call.  Stock closed at $221 that day. 

    March 22, 2011 2:51 PM EDT       
    On CNBC Stop Trading, Jim Cramer comments that Verizon (NYSE: VZ) or AT&T (NYSE: T) should buy Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) before Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) does.

  41. Remember Juliet Phil?

    She wanted to plant a tree, I told her to plant an Apple tree!

  42. @albo

    Neither of them bought the stock because even at 221 it was overvalued.

  43. Rustle123 -Maybe so.  But Reed Hastings has been laughing all the way to the bank.

  44. The moron from RBC is on CNBC right now

  45. AAPL presentation starts at 10 AM PST.

  46. @albo

    There are many people getting rich from even crappier companies that go up on hype, but for a company to actually buy another company, with the exception of FB, they will make damn sure the valuation is worth it.  I've made a lot of money on NFLX on the upside, I don't think it was worthy of being there but not fighting the market.  The valuation is still less than half of what it's trading at.  Look at cash flow.  It's like TSLA, made more money of TSLA than almost any other stock and I will still argue it's worth maybe 1/3 of where it is now.  And one day it will get there.  With HFT programs, bubble market, irrational analysts, and no real unbiased business news, the market is not pricing companies on a fundamental basis or anything close to a rational level.  But companies buying another company will look more closely.

  47. The TZA OCT 13/16 Bull Call Spread is protecting nicely against a dip day today for me. Thanks Phil. 

    I think I might want to add some more to this hedge.

    Is simply adding more to this same price/expiration position optimal, or should I add maybe at different strikes , or a different expiration?  Thx! 

  48. You make good points.  The day of reckoning will come at some point for these over priced MOMOs.  Question is when.  Meanwhile, it seems that many hedge funds, who have underperformed, are playing in the same sandlot with a small number of stocks.  Works for awhile, until they decide to exit. 

  49. @albo

    And Cramer is one of those asshole pumpers who contribute to creating fantasy valuations for many of these companies but no doubt for manipulating them higher for friends running hedge funds to help them out.

  50. Phil,

    You have stiff competition today at 1PM.

  51. AAPL longs might be able to party like it's 1984. 

  52. Gigas/Rustle, Albo – I'd say the new buzzword is likely to be 3-D printing.  It's going to be so easy to say you are in talks with Maker on this or DDD on that and that you are filing for a patent that will instantly produce widgets for half the price at twice the speed, etc.  Come on guys – let's make up a BS Business Plan and get funded!  blush

    AAPL/Shadow – The iPods are now $49, soon iPod touches will be $49 and then iPhones (already $99) will be $49.  It's not that AAPL doesn't cater to the bottom 80% – they just don't get first crack at the cool stuff.  AAPL owners won't pay 1%, CC companies will split fees with AAPL.  

    NFLX/Albo – Well none of them bought NFLX, of course, but it was a very effective pump job.  

    If you want to play for an AAPL pop this afternoon, the QQQ weekly $100 calls are just .40 and QQQ topped out at $100.33 yesterday.  Figure AAPL pops 2.5% and that pops the Nas and QQQ 0.5% so $100.50 + premium could be good for 50% if AAPL gets a good reaction – if not, it's probably going to lose less than a direct play on AAPL would. 

    TZA/Sn0 – Well TZA is only at $14.50 so the spread is half in the money at net $1.25 so it still has good upside if you add to it but I'd rather get the Jan $15/20 bull call spread at $1 as that gives you more time and more upside – if your TZA hedge goes in the money.  That way, you can take $2 off the table on the Oct spread and know you still have plenty of upside if TZA keeps going up on you and also less downside exposure if it flips the other way.  

    That's interesting – a long and a short index play in the same comment.  

    1pm/Sibe – I would have not scheduled the Webinar then if I had known.  

  53. Believe me, I know all about Cramer.  He should be in jail for all of things he revealed he did when running his hedge fund.  As to being a pumper, are you old enough to remember Dan Dorfman?  Think he was Cramer's role model.

  54. Phil, I live in the country that invented cashless phone transactions.  We've had it since 2002 or earlier and I believe I am the only one in the entire country of some 35 million adults who does not have a phone money account and refuses to have anything to do with it.  If there is absolutely no choice which does happen a couple of times a year I get either my girlfriend or one of my employees to pay whoever needs to be paid.  I still love my cash and am too large, aware and fit to be robbed easily.  The only time I have ever been mugged was in 1997 and was tired and sleepy at the time.  But fingers crossed, famous last words and all that.  With over 10 years of watching mobile phone payments developing and taking over the nation I think your concerns if it happens to you will be,
    1. being driven nuts at having to spend what seems like forever typing out 10 digit numbers and going through all kinds of safety checks when transferring cash to the vendor.  I prefer to have the correct change ready in cash, hand it over and walk out of the shop in a few seconds.
    2. sending cash to an incorrect account in error – it takes forever to get it back from what I see around me and one is fully at the mercy of the recipient and they do not always help out.  For large mistakes they are happy to cash it in and dispose of their phones.  Of course many are great about it.
    Cashless transactions are not as wonderful as they sound.  Imho for online payments credit cards are the best and after years of living with mobile phone money I still like cash and checks best.  As for everyone else around me, they all use cash, checks and credit cards over 95% of the time.  Thought I'd share this first hand experience.

  55. Surface and TOS – anyone here using TOS on the latest Microsoft Surface (Pro 3.0)? If so, how does it do?

  56. STP at $137,000, LTP at $604,000 so we're steady at $741K so far.  

    • Dow -0.19% to 17,079.00. S&P flat at 2,001.54. Nasdaq -0.09% to 4,587.98.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.29%. 10-yr -0.24%. 5-yr -0.18%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.56% to $93.18. Gold +0.02% to $1,254.60.
    • Currencies: Euro +0.56% vs. dollar. Yen +2.77%. Pound -0.29%.
    • Dow -0.45%.
    • 10-yr -0.15%.
    • Euro +0.17% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.76% to $93.36.
    • Gold +0.14% to $1,256.10.

    July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

    • 4.673M job openings, vs. consensus of 4.72M, 4.675M in June.
    • Report
    • Redbook Chain Store Sales: +4.9% Y/Y vs. +4.9% last week.
    • ICSC Retail Store Sales: +4% Y/Y vs. +4.8% last week.
    • 0.7% W/W vs. flat last week.
    • "The report describes sales as healthy and notes that sales for the month of September are often the third highest of any month, benefiting from the end of the back-to-school season and the beginning of the fall sales season".
    • August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: +0.4 to 96.1 vs. consensus of 95.9, 95.7 prior.
    • "Expectations are still glum, although improving grudgingly".

    EU delays new Russian sanctions package

    • Despite the EU formally adopting a new sanctions package against Russia yesterday, it will delay enforcing them while it assesses whether a cease-fire in Ukraine is holding.
    • "Depending on the situation on the ground, the EU stands ready to review the agreed sanctions in whole or in part," says EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy.
    • In response to the new sanctions, Russia has again signaled that it may ban Western airlines from flying over its territory.

    Pound pulls out tailspin as Carney talks rate hikes

    • "If interest rates were to follow the path expected by markets – that is, beginning to increase by the spring and thereafter rising very gradually,” inflation would reach the 2 percent target and 1.2 million jobs would have been created, Carney says, speaking  at the annual Trades Union Conference in Liverpool. “In other words, we would achieve our mandate.”
    • "The recovery has exceeded all expectations [and] has momentum … You can expect interest rates to begin to increase."
    • Headed south nearly all summer and tumbling further yesterday amid rumblings of a "yes" vote for Scottish independence, the pound erases today's losses after Carney's speech and is now up 0.1% on the session at $1.6116. The FTSE is flat for the day.
    • eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) will start processing payments in bitcoin (COINOTCQB:BTCS) at its Braintree payments subsidiary, part of its PayPal unit.
    • Braintree will roll out the capability in the coming months, and will work with bitcoin exchange Coinbase to enable payments in the virtual currency.
    • The move could potentially allow PayPal’s 152M accounts to use the currency as payment, prompting wider use and acceptance of bitcoin.

    WAKE UP PEOPLE – World's 7th Largest Economy!!!  Brazil's rating outlook lowered at Moody's

    • The outlook for Brazil's Baa2 government bond rating is cut to Negative from Stable at Moody's, which notes sustained low growth and worsening debt metrics as suggesting the need for a credit downgrade.
    • Alongside those two factors, says Moody's, is "a marked deterioration in investor sentiment which has negatively impacted fixed capital formation."
    • The Bovespa is lower by 0.25% in early action.
    • The World Health Organization says Liberia's Ebola outbreak is spreading exponentially with thousands of new cases coming. It believes that up to 20,000 people may eventually be infected and that it may take six to nine months to contain the disease.
    • Fourteen of Liberia's fifteen counties have reported cases. As soon as a new treatment center opens, it is overwhelmed with patients.
    • The government extends a nationwide nighttime curfew to help curb the spread of the disease.
    • There is just one doctor per 100,000 citizens. 152 health care workers have been infected to date with 79 deaths.
    • Sierra Leone orders a four-day countrywide "lockdown" beginning September 18 to halt the spread of Ebola within its borders.

    Notes from Radian's Barclays presentation

    • More than three-quarters of Radian's (RDN -1.4%) primary risk in force as of Q2 is HARP volume, says Radian CEO S.A. Ibrahim, presenting at the Barclays Financial Services Conference.
    • Webcast and slides
    • As for the years 2005-2008, about 70% of the risk in force from that period has never been delinquent.
    • Not only are legacy losses (2005-2008 mortgages) continuing to decline, but the performance for newer vintages (2009 and since) has been "exceptional," with default count barely visible when looking at a chart (slide 12).
    • Commenting on the FHFAs' proposed Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements, Radian isn't pleased with them – noting (like Genworth and MGIC) – the "onerous treatment" of legacy loans that never went into default despite the property crash, and the failure of the rules to consider loan seasoning as a factor. Nevertheless, Radian expects be fully compliant with the new requirements ahead of the end of the transition period without having to raise external capital.
    • "We are not a retailer," reminds Simon Property Group (SPG) in its presentation slides for the Barclays Financial Services conference (CEO David Simon just wrapped his presentation). The company, instead, is a manager of its real estate, and quality locations overcomes retailer volatility.
    • Lining up a chart of Simon's top 10 tenants from 1993 with the top 10 today (slide 8), Simon notes six of 1993's top 10 are no longer in business, but SPG keeps rolling along, with stockholder returns of 2,350% since the 1993 IPO.
    • Lennar (NYSE:LEN) and D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) are upgraded to Overweight, while PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) is upgraded to Neutral following a near-9% drop YTD.
    • Downgrades from Overweight to Neutral: M/I Homes (NYSE:MHO), Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH). Downgrades from Neutral to Underweight: M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) and Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF).

    Chevron downgraded at BofA on cash flow outlook

    • Chevron (CVX -0.9%) is downgraded to Neutral from Underperform with a $133 price target, down a bit from $135, at BofA/Merrill, as lower price oil foreshadows a more difficult cash flow outlook.
    • BofA contends that with management now routinely referencing $50B at $110/bbl oil as the outcome of its current growth plan, its base case $100 assumption applied across its coverage universe suggests a more challenging outlook for CVX's free cash flow, given current net cash outflow looks to remain above $50B.
    • While planned disposals suggested by management could top ~$10B, BofA says its analysis suggests CVX will build material debt over the next four years, consistent with the ~$12B annual run rate evident over the past year.
    • Net loss of $7.8M, or ($0.03) per share vs. $6.4M, or ($0.03) per share, in the same period a year ago.
    • Total backlog of $350.2M vs. $342.8M the previous quarter.
    • Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $133.1M at July 31, 2014.
    • FQ3 results
    • FCEL -10.5% premarket
    • Cowen analysts maintain their bearish stance on the agriculture industry and fertilizer stocks, expecting the large crop and significantly lower grain prices to pressure fertilizer prices.
    • The firm lowers estimates on all ag names to reflect a reduced fertilizer forecast anddowngrades Potash (NYSE:POT) to Underperform from Market Perform as well as Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) to Sector Perform from Outperform; POT -1% premarket.
    • Also: CFAGUIPIRNF.

    Slip in load factor for American Airlines Group in August

    • American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AALreports total passenger revenue miles flown in August were flat Y/Y at 20.0B.
    • The carrier's load factor slipped 90 bps to 84.6% as capacity increased.
    • Q3 PRASM is forecast to be flat to +2%.
    • AAL -1.6% premarket
    • McDonald's (NYSE:MCDreports global comparable-store sales fell 3.7% in August. Analysts had forecast a 3.1% drop.
    • The restaurant chain had another tough quarter in the U.S. with comps falling 2.8% and margins under pressure due to the competitive environment.
    • Comparable-store sales in Europe were off 0.7% in the month, while the supplier controversy in China helped to drag down the APMEA comp to a 14.5% slide.
    • Guidance warning: McDonald's estimates Q3 results will be impacted negatively by $0.15-$0.20 due in part to to the loss of demand in China. Full-year projections will be updated in October when Q3 results are released.
    • MCD -0.5% premarket

    Nervous times for retail sector ahead of Apple event

    • A large patch of the retail sector will have their ears perked up this afternoon to see what Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) delivers up with its iWatch announcement or teaser.
    • Though the company's entry into wearable technology is considered nearly a certainty, the unknown variable is if the product will end up falling under the "gadget" category or be another Apple device revolution.
    • Computerworld's Mike Egan is in the latter camp: "The iWatch should be most comparable to the Mac and the iPhone, Apple's two most stunning revolution."
    • Forrester Research isn't waiting for details, forecasting 10M iWatch sales by 2016 – a mark which could dent demand for high-end watches.
    • Showtime is 1:00 pm ET. (webcast)
    • Luxury watchmakers: Movado (NYSE:MOV), Fossil (NASDAQ:FOSL), Swatch (OTCPK:SWGAY), Tiffany (NYSE:TIF), Richemont (OTCPK:CFRUY), LVMH Moet Hennessy (OTCPK:LVMHF), Hermes (OTCPK:HESAF)
    • Wearable technology players: Sony (NYSE:SNE), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Samsung (OTC:SSNLFOTC:SSNGY), Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN), Basis (NASDAQ:INTC), Fitbit, Jawbone, Adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY), Under Armour (NYSE:UA).


    • Sears Hometown and Outlet (NASDAQ:SHOS): Q2 EPS of $0.15
    • Revenue of $638.7M (-2.8% Y/Y)
    • Press Release
    • Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores (NASDAQ:SHOS) reports comparable-store sales fell 6.3% in Q2.
    • If online transactions fulfilled and recorded by former parent Sears Holdings are included the comp improves to a -4.6% mark.
    • Gross margin +40 bps to 23.0%.
    • SG&A expense ratio +190 bps to 21.8%.
    • Inventory +5.4% to $469.6M.

    Pep Boys lower after Q2 weakness

    • Pep Boys Manny Moe & Jack (PBY -10.1%) slides after Q2 results disappoint.
    • Management with the company noted a soft quarter for the tire business and DIY category pulled down revenue.
    • Q3 has started with a small rise in comps, execs note.
    • Pep Boys earnings call transcript

    Citi: Tough loss for Avon Products

    • Citigroup loses faith in a quick turnaround at Avon Products (AVP -3.5%) with its CEO position now unfilled and costs still running too high.
    • The loss of Kimberly Ross is "hard to overstate," according to Citi.

    Channel check on August video game sales looks weak

    • channel check from Cowen Research analyst Doug Creutz indicates video game console/handheld software sales fell 10% Y/Y in August.
    • The monthly tally would look even worse if not for the positive comp delivered by this year's Madden NFL game.
    • Related stocks GameStop (NYSE:GME), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA), Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO), and Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI).
    • Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) reports a 5.3% drop in sales for its Retail segment to $955M in FQ1.
    • Revenue for the College segment was flat at $226M, while Nook saw sales plummet 54% to $70M.
    • Comp sales at the book chain were off 5.3% in FQ1, a mark that improves to a 0.4% dip if Nook products are backed out.
    • The company expects the separation of the Nook business to occur by the end of Q1 in 2015.
    • BKS +1.1% premarket

    Report: No NFC chip in 4.7" iPhone 6

    • Curious considering reports the iPhone 6 will support NFC-based wireless payments, BGR says a breakdown of a 4.7-inch iPhone 6 reveals no NFC chip.
    • The purported chip supplier is NXP Semiconductors (NXPI -1.5%).

    Bullish RBC Capital call boosts Netflix

    • Netflix (NFLX +1%) is on the rise after RBC Capital boosts its price target on the Outperform-rated stock to a cool $600.
    • The investment firm sees a significant growth opportunity for the streamer in Europe and forecasts a 10%-20% penetration rate in key markets.
    • Netflix has very strong brand reputation with consumers in the U.S., according to new tracking. Churn rates should dip, predicts RBC.

    Party continues for Mobileye

    • Morgan Stanley's Ravi Shanker boosts his price target on Mobileye (NYSE:MBLY) to $65 from $46, with a bull case price target of $120 (last week he said the bull case was $100). Mobileye's superior technology and early start in the vision space mean that it has a 5-10 year lead over rivals today, says Shanker.
    • Mobileye will be a major beneficiary from any potential "arms race" among OEMs to outfit vehicles with ADAS and/or self-driving capabilities, says William Blair, which sees the stock doubling in price.
    • Shares +3.2% premarket

    Hiring lawsuit hits animation industry

    • A new federal lawsuit accuses Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), Sony Pictures (NYSE:SNE), DreamWorks Animation (NASDAQ:DWA) and others of conspiring not to hire each others' workers, artificially depressing wages.
    • Many emails have surfaced supporting the allegations which display company execs discussing "no-raid" agreements.
    • The lawsuit covers conspiracy claims dating all the way back to 1986, with other defendants entering similar agreements by the mid-2000s.

    Creepy!  Microsoft lanches Office Delve

    • "With Delve, information finds you versus you having to find information," says Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Office 365 Team, today rolling out Office Delve (previously codenamed "Oslo") to Office 365 business customers.
    • Powered by Office Graph, Delve figures out and displays that information most relevant for each person based on the work they're doing and with whom they are engaging, says the Team. The presentation of this information is done in a way in which the user will no longer have to remember where "stuff is stored or who shared it with you."

  57. Sometimes ZH is just clueless:

    They tout the fact that China will replace Europe as a client for Russia's oil and gas. The Chinese are not out there to do Russia any favor! And as a matter of fact, the last I read about these contracts was that China was looking to get prices lower than what Europe gets so I really fail to see how that helps. China is no different than the rest of the world – they always look for #1 China!

    And ZH has that big map showing the countries not imposing sanctions on Russia except that the ones doing so are 80% of the world GDP! Pictures don't always tell the story!

  58. That's a strange report on the iPhone 6 you posted Phil:

    The source who posted the Geekbench 3 screenshots (available below) also noted the phone has a 1334 x 750 4.7-inch display that’s not protected by a sapphire glass cover and – curiously – that it doesn’t sport an NFC chip even though many reports have recently revealed that NFC-based wireless payments are coming to iPhone 6 and iWatch. Furthermore, he added the phone packs an improved 8-megapixel camera and will have up to 128GB of storage.

    I hope it's not true because that would be disappointing – screen resolution not very impressive by modern smartphone standard (an old Nexus 5 has 1920×1080 and newer phones are better) and no NFC would mean no payment method unless they implement another system. I would be surprised if that turns out to be the case!

  59. Newsweek posing as Rolling Stone:

    Top IRS auditors, paid about $150,000, each find on average $19 million of corporate taxes due each year, according to data the IRS discloses to Syracuse University researchers each month. Even though each auditor finds $126 in taxes owed for each dollar he or she earns in pay (a great return on investment), Congress has been steadily shrinking their ranks for more than two decades. It also hobbles auditors by allowing them to look only at issues the companies have been warned about, a practice similar to food, hospital and pet shop inspectors tipping businesses off that they are coming so they can clean up first.

    And no one seems upset about that besides Bernie Sanders and Libby Warren! Insane…

  60. What a crook:

    The reason that senior bankers did not face charges, even though investigators interviewed countless witnesses and pored over truckloads of emails and other documents for many years, is that the executives running companies like Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan were not committing criminal acts.

    Barry takes him to task:

    Political access and lobbying go part way toward explaining the absence of prosecutions and, therefore, the lack of convictions. To understand why there were no convictions of senior bankers, you need to understand a bit of criminal law in the U.S. The American form of jurisprudence requires a criminal indictment to bring someone to trial. No indictment, no trial, no conviction. Where bankers and their lawyers have been so successful is stopping prosecutions before they begin. You don’t get to the conviction part if prosecutors don't bring indictments.

    [...] So what crimes could we imagine? How about fraudulent mortgage underwriting; robo-signing and foreclosure perjury; falsifying Libor rates; manipulating gold and other metal prices; money laundering for drug kingpins and terrorists; and participating in Ponzi schemes. This is hardly an all-inclusive list and I could certainly make it longer.

  61. Phones/CJ – Thanks for sharing.  What country is that?  I think the key is AAPL working out all those bugs but if I had a running statement on my phone (like Amex) showing me all the transactions that me, my wife and my kids were running at any given time – I'd be very happy with that and, like Amex, I'd tend to make it my main system for paying for things.  Perhaps I could set a level on my kids phones that requires my approval for certain amounts spent and perhaps I can get a message any time one of our phones is used for a payment.  Hopefully AAPL will have an open source payment system so people will be able to modify the front-end and come up with cool features but all Amex has to do is put their current Web system on the phone and I'd be disinclined to ever use cash again.  

    Mayo/Diamond – That's also great stuff.  Thanks for rewards article. 

    ZH/StJ – Yep, various agendas over there.  

    NFC/StJ – That would be a big disappointment.  Maybe it's not ready yet, maybe AAPL has something better in mind?  And the whole tax system regarding corporations is beyond insane – this country has completely sold out to Big Business and they have only paid a token tax (less than 10% of all US taxes collected) for decades now.  It's a total joke.  Then they turn around and use the tax inversion schemes as "evidence" that our Corporate Tax Rate is too high.  Net of the subsidies we hand out – corporations already have a negative net tax rate, but they want MORE!!!  

    Image Detail

  62. Phil // HD
    I just got off the phone with a friend of mine at Bloomberg security. We happened to come around to HD. He mentioned that the breech is much larger than the MM is reporting. He was explaining that they actually captured zip codes, which interestingly is gold to a hacker.
    HD seems to have found support at 90 – any schadenfreudian thoughts ?

  63. Zip codes are big, sometimes required for credit cards. How safe can a phone be when businesses aren't safe and neither are banks. I do 99% of business with a credit card, ditched the debit card, bank account not safe, and cash is close to ridiculous at banks barely open to public. Now for changes, the welder wanted 5% to use a card. At the post office credit card, you scan, and then they have to verify the card for less than $5. On the merchant side it is like UPS and Fed Ex, the big guys pay less than cost while the small and individuals pay many times the number. The US system is rigged. Everything.

    Phil I know a number of people with IPhones that should not based on less than poverty wages. Where are the cuts to pay it? They are the bottom 10%.

  64. Hi Pharm, I see you are around today (that picture creeped me out.)  Wondered what you think of ARWR actually getting bought out by someone.  For a couple of months now i've been buying say 15-16 call spreads and paying for them with $21 call sales,  Because of the high IV it's been good money.  At this point it would take like a $30 sale to hurt me, but,…


    ~~Trump Entertainment has struggled since the day it emerged from its last bankruptcy in 2010, having filed the year before. It came out of bankruptcy with $350 million in debt, and currently has more than $285 million in debt.

    The other scammer or ass hole who's net worth is covered up by banks to avoid bigger loses.

  66. Cliffs Natural Resources Director disclosed purchase of 7,246 shares at $13.75 worth $99,694 (transaction date 9/08)

  67. AAPL live event is on! :-)

  68. i hope Tim discovered amphetamines 

  69. 10:21 and 11:48 intervention to stop the drop. I continue to question liquidity as these little buys cost someone a healthy amount. How long will they continue?

  70. HD/Wombat – Since it's happening to everyone these days, I don't think it's a huge negative for any individual retailer but, when a stock is overbought, it can be a catalyst to let off some steam.  

    Cuts/Shadow – ??? 

    CLF/Albo – About time someone put their foot down.  

    OK, time for our Webinar – I'm getting on a bit early and we'll follow AAPL as we can as well.  

  71. NKE/phil – you said might be an Apple announcement/tie in? worth some Sept 84 calls?

  72. Phil cuts

    Had to double take that and go back. When people have a very limited budget from Econ 101 they spend dollar votes on a cool phone and that leaves less votes for something else. Where are they cutting the budget?

  73. Phil, Kenya.  It started when a micro lender virtually begged the local CEO of the Vodaphone Kenyan subsidiary Safaricom to instal a mobile phone cash payment and receipt system for enabling small farmers to handle cash transactions for their produce. He was only initially being charitable when agreeing to this.  They jointly developed the system and nowadays Safaricom/Vodaphone take all the credit as one would expect with no mention of the initiating micro lender.  This if my memory serves me well was just after the turn of the century.  It spread stealthily and then like wildfire after 2005 and internationally from then on.  Initially I thought the banks would respond but incredulously they just sat back and watched doing nothing.  However they are fighting back and it is the finance houses like the Amex you have which will dominate.  But note that if it is a mobile phone to mobile phone transaction it is unwieldy as one patiently waits for the receiver to spell out their mobile phone number which are a minimum 8 digits.  One cannot use one's phone address book to make the transfer less arduous.  I suppose these glitches will be ironed but they haven't here for the last ten years and ours is supposed to be the most developed system on this. Amex have a direct payment system because retailers are connected directly to their network.  Free transactions to any mobile number you choose is a different kettle of fish.

  74. Phil this is just one of the things I dislike about many companies making money, internet should be free but the event requires Safari or AAPL!

    Sorry, your browser doesn’t support our live video stream.

    But you can follow the live blog below.
    Live streaming video requires Safari 5.1.10 or later on OS X v10.6.8 or later; Safari on iOS 6.0 or later.










    ?Apple Live?

  75. Phil // HD
    I guess that was my point – this hasn't really happened before. Yes,  historically their have been security breeches but I gather that the level of this is one is unique. My friend explained that the combination of information with the zip codes allows  an unprecedented opening for credit fraud – the only recourse would be to reissue account numbers for every card. Anyway – thought it was of interest.

    Phil // ABB
    Been doing reading on ABB – did this ever make it as a formal call in the portfolios ? If so, how much would you allocate considering the div ?

    Scottmi / NKE
    APPLE already has NKE built in with FIT. I can't see any other move except a 'partnership' for the new HealthKit, similar to Mayo.

  76. Instagram doesn't work either without subscription! Hope someone passes on the news but I think this is less and for Apple Pies only.

  77. NKE/wombat – thanks

  78. Moderation for the truth. Really?

  79. Anyone see that 20pt drop on the /NQ in the course of 1 min?

  80. GTAT – Tanking.

  81. CNBC reports streaming problems with the event. I was held for moderation, one analyst says hold rating second sell the news. The sell team?

  82. LQMT dropped too

  83. is anyone else getting a japanese audio translation on the apple feed ? really weird >>

  84. wombat

    Girl on CNBC reports the translation problem, glad I broke my rule of no CNBC but this deal and esp. moderated pushed me to WTF!

  85. GLW not moving, not them.

  86. IWM loosing the 115.5 line, 115 is a must hold.

  87. shadowfax – What does “loosing” mean? 

  88. Diamond loosing

    I have a guideline at 115.5 and they breached it the third time, almost immediately bounced to 115.75 which I wonder what the bots subscribe to? PSW?

  89. shadowfax – Oh … then you meant “losing.”

  90. I'll be ordering the 128gb iPhone with 5.5" this weekend

  91. rustle123 – I’ll be ordering a 5.5” Friday! :-)

  92. diamond

    Another post and 115.9!

  93. STJ – As you said earlier " but then I'll be worried that people will rob me and pull my eyes out to use my phone to withdraw cash!"  Not to worry.  Looks like they'll just be chopping your finger off.  Much less onerous ! 8-)

  94. OMG!!!

  95. GTAT – Reversing strongly with iWatch intro.

  96. Movement in GTAT hilarious! Drops big on iPhone announcement, not using Sapphire.Then spikes up with apple watch announcement and use of Sapphire.

  97. Stunned!!!

  98. GTAT – Now moving down again.  What the hey !

  99. GTAT down 14% now… Didn't we have some rule way back about trading on AAPL suppliers. Better to stick with AAPL, it's where the money is.

  100. IMHO, the Moto 360 looks better than the iWatch. Not that I'll buy either of them anyway – but the round design a bit more to my liking and slimmer too it seems.

  101. lqmt…

  102. ApplePay interesting though.

    Wild ride for AAPL today though.. Up to 103 and now back to 101. Still up over 2% for the day.

  103. Stjean

    The watch is a bomb because you need the phone also so GTAT is bombing with no sapphire IPhone. Personally I like the in ear blue tooth and get a nice watch if you want one.

  104. shadowfax – I will take the OTHER SIDE of your trade!

  105. to be clear I have no in ear, portable phone or a working watch.

    Diamond No trades, can't get on other side of that but IWM is looking weak again. Bounce now coming.

  106. LQMT- 0.19 – i think Phil will love to buyt it here as well.

  107. phil/AAPL, can AAPL just sit here? it seems that if it's not going to 110 on today's announcement, it needs to retrace to 90'ish.

  108. Definitely going to get the large iPhone, but i don't get the iwatch, because the reason i don't wear a watch anymore is because i have an iPhone near me at all times

  109. Officially in the STP, we bought back the short SQQQ Dec $50s for 0.70.

  110. Financialization of  U.S. reaches high water mark?  "Thirties" now middle-aged.

    Now what, Phil?  Manufacturing useful products?  Which?  Inquiring minds…..

  111. AAPL $99.40.  

    GTAT failing at $14.90 and we don't want to be the heroes but I do love the short 2016 $12 puts, now $2.80 but happy to get $2.50 for them if they bounce back or $3+ for them if they keep falling so no hurry but $15 should be a floor on this overreaction.  

    LQMT also a falling knife at 0.19 but should be a lot of disappointed people and a very thinly traded stock so both of these are on a very short watch list and I'd love to have positions on both in our portfolios this week.  

  112. I watch not a standalone – that's the killer detail!  No credit to AAPL for that and selling will commence. 

  113. All these sensors to monitor you!

    Infrared and visible-light LEDs, along with photosensors, detect your pulse rate.

    To get to your apps, just press the Digital Crown.

    Most Apple Watch faces are extremely customizable.

    This would be great – if you didn't have to have a phone in your pocket to make it work.  

    Receive and send messages in amazing ways — from your wrist.

    You’ll know this town like the back of your hand.

    This is not the thing that will get AAPL over $105, unfortunately.

  114. Phil don't speak to loud AAPL going down slowly!

  115. the samsung gear S watch operates independently on its own.  has 3G, wifi and blue tooth.  

  116. Closed the QQQ and made 16$ on 4 opts Nearly to cover one of Phil's hamburgers )8

  117. The new new thing didn't come. Mini Cooper stretched it's wheelbase Camry new metal but in auto it is called refresh.

  118. Iwatch / Phil  ;  It seems than functionality is superior than design,  is not clear to me if you need your Iphone near or is a individual unit  ( you can have it without the phone).

    We´ll see, Ipad had  a similar reaction and then it took off.

  119. NKE/Scott – Clearly AAPL has cut NKE loose so not bullish on them (in relation to this announcement)

    Phones/Shadow – People used to by cameras and phones and alarm clocks and video cameras and laptops and PDAs and notebooks and pens and watches, etc. and now they buy a smartphone – it's not very complicated where the money comes from.  As noted by the GOP, people on welfare have smartphones – it's MCD that has to worry about what will get cut from the budget, not AAPL.  

    Thanks for details, CJ.  I'm sure it will all be ironed out over time and it remains to be seen what kind of advances have been made by AAPL and co.  

    AAPL/Shadow – Well you can use Safari for free on a PC so they're not being too mean – I just don't have it on the HPQ I was using.

    HD/Wombat – Very much of interest if it's different.  This is why I only use Amex and look every day to see what's going on – fraud is now rampant and I think the CC companies grossly underreport the actual damages as I know so many people who've had their cards used by thieves.  

    ABB/Wombat – No forgot all about them, unfortunately.  Too much AAPL excitement.  

    3:15 am ABB announces $4 bln share repurchase at investor conference

    Their market cap is $53Bn so it's a huge buy-back.  I think it puts a nice floor on the company, which is a solid grower in the first place.  Unfortunately, they don't have leaps but I'd feel good about selling March $23 puts for $1.20 to start a position.  

    Woops and there goes AAPL and the indexes.  $96.35!  

    Good thing we got out of the QQQ longs!  (and even better thing we bought back the SQQQ calls!)

  120. Phil

    Those smart phones are digging into a lot more than MCD. In most urban areas you can get cable TV phone and internet unlimited for $50, try that on a smart phone and the budget goes way up.

  121. I for one, can say I like the watch and will get one and give it as presents. Sorry guys

  122. AAPL // Wow.
    How unfortunate.
    Its very strange, the last week I have been with one of my clients setting up the Intel Deveopers Forum (IDF) here in SF. Much larger than Apples keynote by far.
    What I am always amazed at is the complexity of these shows, but in turn – the backs for backups for backups they have. The flow is incredible. I wish I could post pictures so you guys could see backstage at one of these.
    That being said, I'll find out who the production team is on the keynote because they are so fired.
    I agree with advill, I'm rather disappointed in the design. I think Jonny botched this one. Compared to the picture Phil posted this morning, it look alike a Navy Seal training watch.
    I do however leave the keynote with what I wanted. Even the astoundingly uncharismatic Tim Cook can't hold back this wave of e-commerce. This is exactly what I was hoping for – the entire landscape of point of sale has now changed. Health Kit, Music and watching your friends heartbeat are all cool, but this is a game changer. 
    I will waiting for the 'correction wave' to add to significantly add to my position.

  123. YHOO – Cramer flaps his gums re Alibaba and yhoo keeps slipping down. good grief.

  124. They won't be Christmas presents release date January 2015.

  125. At 200 millions phones times $350 is 70 billion plus in potentional sales….?

  126. scottmi / YHOO
    I must be watching too much of that ahole. I sold half the position yesterday, on the hopes to DD when he shuts up.

  127. Apple – i think a lot of people are being too critical of the new products judging by the stock's tepid reaction.  the average iphone user has been waiting a long time for this upgrade and will do so now.  about 70% of the iphone users in my office are upgrading.  one guy is even switching back to Apple from Samsung.  

  128. wombat – Make sure that keynote production team is FIRED!!! :-)

  129. Food safety/QC – About time they get around to that!  

    3D/Shadow – Very cool. 

    AAPL/Lunar – I think the non-believers are already out and I'll stick with my $97.50 bottom call.  A bit of consolidation down here and then we move back up on the Wallet and new iPhone demand but I consider the watch to be a bust.  

    Watch/Rdn – I agree, watches are pointless but, if I had a waterproof iWatch that worked like a Phone (calls, messages, maps, some apps), that I would certainly use whenever I was out and about rather than take a phone with me.  

    Useful products/ZZ – Not from those guys.  This country had a chance to grab the World leadership in solar manufacturing and blew it.  GOP derailed it with Solyndra witch hunt that killed an otherwise great program

    But all lenders make bad loans. Obama’s stimulus package reserved $2.5 billion for Solyndra-style busts. A review led by a Republican financier found that the portfolio — which includes the world’s largest wind farm, a half dozen of the world’s largest solar farms and America’s first cellulosic biofuel refineries — is doing fine.

    Overall, the stimulus poured $90 billion into clean energy, when the U.S. had been spending just a few billion a year, and it’s launched a quiet green revolution. We’ve doubled renewable power; with help from the low silicon prices that killed Solyndra, solar installations have soared 600%. The stimulus has jump-started the smart electric grid and created a new domestic battery industry for electric vehicles.

    Samsung/Terra – But no phone, right?  We're still years away from Dick Tracy watches.  

    IWatch/Advill – Very limited if that's all it does, that's why they are pushing the fitness aspects – it's really the only value add.  

    Watch/Triboy – Sure people will like it but it's not going to be a major seller for AAPL – though that still means they can sell 20M for $7Bn and make $2Bn – just a drop in the bucket for AAPL.  

    Thanks Wombat.  

    YHOO/Scott – Cramer is a menace!  

    [video] Cramer's stocks to watch: Alibaba

    Yahoo stock heading to $50 per share: Trader

    AAPL/Terra – I agree but it's fine, we needed to consolidate at $97.50 before the leg up to $110, this is 100% according to plan.  

  130. Samesoon will have new watches out … very soon. ;-)

  131. diamond

    Not to get too technical on you but stand alone watches have a big or you might say small problem, battery size and capacity. I have debated the idea of the answer is changeable and throw away batteries with a super cap in there to hold the time to swap.

  132. Phil – I have to trust that AAPL has a plan regarding the watches. There is a very real possibility that (they know) the demand is going to be much larger than you imagine. They need to make sure they can not only meet that early demand, but also take care of any problems that arise. After that, they can then expand the user base. If you remember, they did the same thing with iTunes, because at first you had to have a Mac, now you do not. I am sure they have a future plan that will decouple the watch from the iPhone. Although, I bet even you will have an apple watch well before that happens! ;-)

  133. Thanks for that QQQ trade – up 50%.

  134. I should have added the unsolvable problem is transmission, think phones can stand by a week but talk gets down to hours.

  135. shadowfax – Do you think the Apple watch is going to have a battery problem?

  136. Phil – How long before your daughters convince you they NEED Apple watches?

  137. I think they should've focused on an Apple Television in 2014 and pushed the watch out a few years…

  138. Diamond

    Absolutely if they try stand alone and the other issue is how to charge. The signal has to get to towers and that makes your phone get warm. 

  139. AAPL News:

    • Up about 3% amid the introduction of the iPhone 6, Apple Pay, and the Apple Watch, Apple (AAPL -1.6%) has quickly turned lower and is bringing the broader market along.
    • Apple (AAPL +4.8%) plans to launch a mobile payment solution called Pay in a bid to replace physical wallets, credit cards, and other mobile wallet services which have "failed" – according to CEO Tim Cook.
    • The company will use its Passbook app and a customer's iTunes account details to store payment information, while NFC and touch ID technology will be utilized. The major credit card companies are already on board and Apple is lining up powerhouse banks. Shares of eBay (EBAY -1.9%) have dipped off the development.
    • Apple will launch iOS 8 on September 17 in front of the September 19 release date for its new iPhone 6 in the U.S.
    • More on the iPhone 6: Wi-Fi calling will be available for both new products. 14 hours of 3G talk time for the 6 and 24 hours for the Plus are promised. The phones feature a new sensor which serves as a barometer to measure elevation changes (Nike (NKE +0.1%) is on board). The 8MP iSight camera appears to be a serious jump in quality (video at 1080p and a slo-mo option at 240 fps). FaceTime gets a serious upgrade through the new front-facing camera. Pricing tops out at $399 for the 128GB iPhone 6 with a two-year contract.
    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) fires off its product event in Cupertino with an introduction of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus right off the bat.
    • The curved iPhone 6 will be sized at 4.7-inches, while the larger version comes in at 5.5-inches (phablet territory) as expected.
    • The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus feature next-gen retina displays and are thin at 6.8mm and 7.1mm, respectively.
    • A new A8 chip will load graphics 50% faster.
    • No mention of sapphire glass which has GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT -6.2%) tumbling.
    • Shares of AAPL +1.0% to $99.12 after bouncing around the $100 mark prior to the event.
    • Apple webcastEngadget live blog

    Capital One working with Apple Pay

    • With Apple Pay, Capital One (NYSE:COF) customers will be able to use their credit or debit cards directly from their iPhone 6 or Apple Watch to pay for purchases.
    • Payment will be as simple as holding the iDevice near a reader with a finger on the Touch ID.
    • Source: Press Release

    Visa announces Apple Pay-friendly payments solution

    • Visa (V -0.7%) announces it will debut a new payment service in conjunction with Apple's launch of Apple Pay.
    • The company says Visa Token Service will allow Visa cards to be added to Apple Pay through the use of a digital account number (token) which can be stored on devices.

    Report: Icahn has not sold Apple stock, is adding to position

    • Carl Icahn says he has not sold Apple (AAPL +1.6%) shares, and in fact he is adding to his position, Bloomberg's Trish Regan tweets after talking with the hedge fund manager ahead of today's iPhone event.
    • "Where else can you get a growth company at 10x earnings?" Icahn reportedly tells Regan. "While everyone is worried about the new products today, I just look at the math."
    • The news comes amid market rumors that an Icahn sell-program led to the Sept. 3 selloffin the stock.

    One more thing: Here comes the Apple Watch

    • It's official. Apple (AAPL +3.1%) has introduced a new product with the Apple Watch (scratch the i-product history) which it says took a healthy round of "deep thinking" to develop the user interface.
    • As expected, the device is being called by Apple a health and fitness monitoring answer.
    • The Apple Watch is available in two different sizes and comes with a variety of stainless steel band options or sportier aluminum choices. A sapphire screen is used by Apple with the product. With pinch and zoom not an option, Apple has gone with haptic feedback for navigation.
    • Shares of Apple are up 3.2% for the day, picking up steam after Pay and the Apple Watch were introduced.
    • Apple event webcast
    • Shares of (NASDAQ:AMZN) are down 3.0% for the day with much of the damage occurring before the Apple event.
    • The emergence of Apple Pay is a threat that has been largely factored into the Amazon matrix, although some analysts think Apple is a bit further along with strategic partnerships than anticipated.
    • A win in mobile commerce through the Fire phone (only 35K sold at the end of August) looks like a challenge, they note.


  141. angelcur:-)

  142. Batteries/Shadow – Another reason I thought they would go with the wrist-band style – more room for batteries, antennas, etc.  

    Plan/Diamond – I think it's a niche item until they make it standalone.  You would lose your watch bet as I've never worn a watch in my life.  It used to really bother my step-father that I didn't wear a watch and he'd keep trying to give me his Rolex but I had zero interest.  I'm very good at knowing what time it is so a watch seems very pointless to me – even more so now that I can get the exact time on my phone.  Possibly, if the watch was INSTEAD of the phone – I might finally be interested but now WITH the phone. 

    You're welcome Dennis, congrats.  

    Daughters/Diamond – They have to convince me that I need one and then, when I get bored, Tina gets it and THEN they get it when Tina is done.  They'll have a lot easier time getting me to buy a 6 and my girls are too clever to waste their marketing efforts on a hopeless cause like a watch (and, actually, neither one has expressed any interest in the watch).  

    TV/Kinki – I agree but, apparently, they can't get that working the way they want either.  

    S&P clearly failing to get back to 2,000 with AAPL at $97.99 – not good at all.  /TF 1,157.50!  

  143. kinki // ATV
    I totally agree. Thats an area that has incredible potential, but I do think the e-commerce portion the release is ripe. I'm thinking that they are holding ATV in the wings as a wedge into HomeKit and the entire smart home category. 
    I agree with Phil though – they fked it up. Everyone just assumed it was standalone and looked Star Trek. I  even think it might have been intentional, since over half of their revenue is iPhone related, they couldn't very well cannibalize their base. While it does have some very cool features, I don't see the point if I have to carry my phone with me as well.

    It also shows me that Cook is listening to the public and Wall Street. He's just not the visionary / autocrat that Jobs was – he's almost too strategic. I'm not saying thats bad, it's just not the Apple we grew up with.

  144. Phil – What are your thoughts on DBC? Composition is 55% energy, 22% agriculture, 13% industrial metals and 10% precious metals. DBC has held the $24 line, since late 2010. Most of the components are near their lows for the year… Unfortunately, option premiums are pretty low. Thanks, Eric 

  145. interesting >>

    And that’s the thorny issue for Hughes – chairman and CEO Jack Ma’s control of the company. Ma, China’s richest man valued at over $22 billion, is very much intertwined with the business given the company's unorthodox corporate structure. Alibaba filed to go public in May, selecting a U.S. based listing after Hong Kong regulators rejected its proposed governance structure. Alibaba is structured as a partnership of 27 insiders, which including co-founders Ma and and vice chairman Joe Tsai, who will have the ability nominate a majority of the board.

    “He controls the whole thing, which is very much unlike corporate governance in the United States,” she says. “If you buy Alibaba, you actually buy a holding company based in the Cayman Islands that has certain rights to the Chinese company, Alibaba, that is controlled by Jack Ma. You’re taking quite a big risk on the fact that there’s nothing really tying you as a shareholder to the assets and the entity itself.”

  146. I've reviewed the PSW comments on the Apple Watch, and they are all well-thought out, accurate — and, from my perspective [I don't live in what is termed the "First World"], likely miss the most important aspect of the A-Watch:  sex.  No, I'm not being clever or making a joke in bad taste — I am referring to the fact that most smartphone owners, in many [populous] countries, don't buy them because they need or even understand all the features, but because you can't get laid by most girls of your choice without one. I see it every day.


     Status symbol - virility ad - wealth indicator – desirability enhancer — reproduction, in short, is what makes the world, and the product cycle, go around.  No one around here is holding their breath for the Samsung roll out.  What, no interest in your father's Rolex?  Well, they sell a lot of them, even though everyone's cell phone tells time.  Do we think that the Chinese won't buy Apple watches?


    Y'all need to get out more.  Discl:  Was very long Apple at the open, sold on the news, bought after the dump  --  and I thank PSW for that.  

  147. ARWR/rn – not a big fan of RNAi.  There are several players in the space, and I don't see the technology there quite yet. I am more of a small molecule researcher, so if they can come up with a delivery system that either sustains RNAi like a pill, or somehow have a depot/pump that can deliver it, then things could get interesting.  The latter two are the better possibility, but again, things need to behave in a human, and I don't see them quite there yet.

  148. Personally, I think AAPL's announcements would have been better received had they not introduced the Apple Watch at this time.

  149. AAPL's announcement would have gone better if they had not indicated great new things when the phone is incremental and the watch is 2015. No new new or not even up to competition and not now. Likely to be punished for that and dam I have said for years they have nothing new and revolutionary, everyone else is in the same camp.

  150. Watch / Zero – I remember vividly being in a bar with some friends including a very, very attractive girl. A guy approached her and didn't hide the fact that he had a Rolex! I'll remember all my life what the girl said – "I see you have the asshole watch!"  Not buying a Rolex… 

  151. StJ:  I have a black plastic Casio.  Combines day, date, all time zones, stopwatch, countdown timer, recording barometer, electronic compass, altimeter, tide indicator, alarm, waterproof to 100 ft., ugly, lumpy, indestructible.  I have an antique Patek Phillippe squirreled away in a safe somewhere, haven't seen it for years — the kind of thing you pass on to your children, while encouraging them to wear ugly, lumpy practical watches for most purposes.

  152. I can get too worked up about the AAPL day overall. ApplePay looks like a winner but the iWatch doesn't do much for me. ApplePay has a better chance than Google Wallet I think because they worked with Master Card and Visa instead of trying to go alone like Google did originally. That has changed since then, but the playing field is tilted toward AAPL in the US at least. The rest of the world is more iffy I think due to the greater Android penetration. As for the phones, nothing revolutionary at all – mostly evolutionary which is what everybody does nowadays. AAPL is not the incontestable design leader anymore – they lead in some features and follow in others. The bigger screen is certainly not a novelty and the resolution they offer is still called "retina" but is now behind what's available in Android. The phones are nicely designed and for most people it comes down to the ecosystem! But I am sure they will sell a ton of them because they have a large "captive" audience and for the first time in a while, a lot of people have stuck with older phones like the iPhone 5 and 4S and not upgraded to the 5S right away.

  153. stjeanluc – Re: what the very, very attractive girl said …

    Oops … was that a double entendre? ;-)

  154. Watch / Zero – My old Citizen Eco Watch died last year after 13 good years and I replaced it by a fitness Basis watch that tracks heart rate, steps, skin temperature and sweat as well as analyse my sleep pattern. But doesn't look fancy at all… Loved the Citizen because you didn't have to worry about the battery and it had that automatic dual time zone. I would buy another one again.

    Would love the Patek Phillipe though – in a safe as well! Although there are just so many copies out there that I don't know why people would wear one of these because you would be asked all day if it's real or not. Same with the Rolex! You can buy 10 of them for $100 in Beijing.

  155. In other circles it could have been Diamond but knowing her, I am quite certain it was not! 

  156. stjean

    For the well off and the people that put cool ahead of the kids etc. it will sell, but really very few are going to pay $350 for a watch which is price wise in the middle of nowhere. The bottom that need a watch spend less than $50 and like ZZ says it is waterproof and the battery lasts at least a year. So what do you get? A $350 pain in the ass that requires an expensive phone that actually does it all in one piece at one price. Incrementally they are waiting to see or why wait till January?

  157. If you say it is sapphire glass get real that stuff has been on just good watches for years!

  158. StJ:  Agree that they will sell a lot of them. I am more focused on my Apple position rather than the utility of their latest gadget.  I had an iPhone 4S and switched to a Samsung Galaxy Note for the large screen size and potential for reading internet pages.  Which worked.  I am fairly indifferent to brand, although the Apple seems more hack-proof, so I'll probably revert to the larger Apple 6, my two year old Samsung being quite trashed – miniature devil writing appears spontaneously on the right side of my screen now, every since I dropped it on concrete and smashed the original screen.  Oh well.


    Patek Phillippe – a look inside at all those lovingly polished gears is a nice clue.  Plus the case material is obviously real, once it's had a few knocks, and it's a nice diversification away from shares of Apple.  L'art pour l'art.

  159. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 7:05:18 PM

    Japanese and Australian index
    futures dropped as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell the most
    in a month and Apple (AAPL) Inc. retreated after unveiling new
    products. The dollar held near an almost six-year high versus
    the yen while copper futures rebounded.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  160. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 6:27:43 PM

    Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest speaks at the daily White House briefing about the U.S. strategy against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and President Barack Obama’s speech tomorrow night. (Source: Bloomberg)

    President Barack Obama is preparing
    to ask Congress to pay for a multibillion-dollar plan to expand
    the military campaign against Islamic State militants, according
    to an administration official.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  161. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 1:49:39 PM

    Former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, who remains a divisive figure in U.S. politics more than a decade after he played a central role in advocating the 2003 invasion of Iraq, was invited to speak by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty Images

    Former Vice President Dick Cheney is re-emerging as a critic of White House foreign policy and, Republicans say, signaling interest in steering the party toward a 2016 presidential nominee who identifies with a pro-military posture.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  162. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 12:01:00 PM

    Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) — Pu Yonghao, chief investment officer for Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management, talks about China’s stocks, economy and government policies.
    He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    China’s central bank chief is
    learning you can’t control what you can’t cut.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  163. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 4:17:09 PM

    The new Apple Inc. iPhone 6 is displayed after a product announcement at Flint Center in Cupertino, California, on Sept. 9, 2014. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Apple Inc. (AAPL) unveiled a fresh ecosystem of products and services — with a smartwatch, mobile-payments system, health applications and bigger-screen iPhones that all work together — in the biggest new lineup so far under Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  164. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 7:16:53 PM

    Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), maker of the Xbox
    video-game console, is in discussions to acquire Mojang AB, the
    software maker behind the popular game Minecraft, for more than
    $2 billion, two people with knowledge of the talks said.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  165. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 3:33:45 PM

    Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., prepares to unveil the Apple Watch during a product announcement at Flint Center in Cupertino, California, U.S., on Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2014. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    When the original iPhone debuted in 2007, investors cheered the news, pushing Apple’s stock up 8 percent on the day of the event. Since then, the market’s reaction to the annual unveiling has been mostly negative. For the following six years, Apple’s stock ended down five times on the days of the events, averaging a loss of almost 2 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  166. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 5:24:01 PM

    Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — Ed McLaughlin, chief emerging payments officer at MasterCard, explains how the company is working with Apple to integrate Apple Pay. He speaks with Trish Regan on “Street Smart.” FBR’s Daniel Ives also comments. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Apple Inc.’s new iPhones are threatening to make the plastic in your wallet obsolete, and that’ll probably still benefit Visa Inc., MasterCard Inc., American Express Co. and the biggest card-issuing banks.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  167. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 6:26:51 PM

    Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — McDonald’s said sales at stores open at least 13 months fell 3.7 percent in August as its U.S. slump continued for the fourth straight month. Julie Hyman reports on “In The Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), the world’s largest restaurant chain, posted the worst same-store sales decline in more than a decade, hurt by sluggish demand in the U.S. and a health scare involving a Chinese supplier.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  168. Phones / Zero – You are giving up a lot of resolution going from a Galaxy Note to the iPhone 6. The new Note has a 2560×1440 resolution. The iPhone 6 – 1920×1080. That's 1.8 times more pixels and more room to display stuff. That's a big difference for me at least. I can almost display a remote desktop of my 30" screen in the Note although not very usable.

  169. AAPL Max Pain: Friday (12th) = $99;  OPEX = $97.50

  170. An AAPL fan boy not impressed by the iWatch:

    To Apple's credit, I do very much want a Taptic mapping experience (read: a much more marketable name for haptic feedback) that'll guide me along my designated route solely with vibrations. (I'd mention Apple Pay, but that distinction really belongs to the new iPhones and Touch ID, not this Watch.) Fitness tracking is in there, too, but that's so old hat by now; it's just expected. If you don't mind, I'll hold my applause.

    Will Apple Watch fail? Doubtful. There's too much of a persistent, lingering Jobsian-halo surrounding the Apple brand to let that product fall on its (watch) face. It'll get better with time; most things/people/products inevitably do. It could even make wearables slightly more palatable for the mainstream. But it's not a revolution and it's not what any of us really expected. It's lipstick on a smartwatch. It's an accessory and nothing more.

  171. Cobra: “AAPL, we may have a Double Top (60 min). As usual, Fib 61.8% target (94.52) is more likely than 100% text book target (92.50).”

    Interesting times ahead …

  172. StJ / Samsung /Apple Resolution: I did not know that.  Added to the fact that I get a new Samsung for free after my 2 year ATT contract expired, if I renew, well, now!!!  


    Agriculture:  This just out. Is there an ag play here?

  173. Cobra: $SPX, “Seasonality tomorrow favors bulls as it’s a very very bullish Wednesday, up 11 of the last 12, also the day after tomorrow, it’s September 11, we shall have a patriotic rally.”

  174. Asian freight carriers are licking their lips at the expected release of the iPhone 6

  175. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 12:32:01 PM

    The European Central Bank announced its latest — and belated — program of quantitative easing last week. The ECB made fresh commitments to buy a series of asset-backed securities (ABS), various bonds and expanded its previously announced Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs).

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  176. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 5:09:10 PM

    China, the next frontier of EV popularity?  Eh … 

    Chinese leadership appears eager to boost the market for what it calls new-energy vehicles (plug-in hybrids, as well as electric cars and fuel-cell vehicles), a notable effort given the country’s well-known air-pollution problem, not to mention its desire to lessen energy dependence and build a strong domestic auto industry. From new tax benefits to Bloomberg News’s report that “China is considering providing as much as 100 billion yuan ($16 billion) in government funding to build electric-vehicle charging facilities and spur demand for clean cars,” it seems multiple options are on the table. Meanwhile, Foxconn Technology Group is immersing itself in the EV business in China. Will China be the new frontier of EV popularity, as BMW and some analysts seem to believe?

    To read the entire article, go to

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  177. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 5:14:03 PM

    Form over all.                                             

    Today, Apple established itself as the world’s biggest fashion company by releasing a smartwatch that is more about beauty and variety than about technology.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  178. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 5:06:21 PM

    Daniel Tarullo is ready to use his powers.

    Four years ago, Congress gave U.S. regulators powerful tools to reduce the threat that the country’s largest banks present to the economy. Now the Federal Reserve, under Chair Janet Yellen, looks like it’s finally getting ready to use them.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  179. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 7:25:03 AM

    ECB President Mario Draghi asked governments to guarantee some elements of asset-backed securities, bundled loans that the ECB plans to purchase to unlock funding in the region’s stalling economy. Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg

    Mario Draghi asked European governments to help him help them. The answer so far is “no.”

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  180. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 5:09:07 AM

    Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, left, with Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, during the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, on Aug. 22, 2014. Photographer: Bradly Boner/Bloomberg

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s economy may be enjoying some unintended support from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  181. From Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2014, 4:54:15 PM

    U.S. stocks fell, with the Standard
    & Poor’s 500 Index declining the most in a month, as concerns
    grew that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner
    than anticipated and a rally in Apple Inc. (AAPL) disappeared.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  182. The World’s Largest Economies Are Concerned About A Collapse In The Chinese Housing Market

  183. Someone's got too much money:

    Well, this is rather surprising: Microsoft is in talks to buy Minecraft's developer, Mojang, according to a few different sources. The Wall Street Journal says that the ever loose-lipped "person familiar with the matter" has noted the deal is valued at over $2 billion, while reps for both Redmond and the Swedish developer remain mum on the subject.

  184. Here’s All The Bad Stuff In The World That Could Make The Economy And Markets Go Haywire

  185. Hot mutual fund promised amazing returns based on ‘fake history’

  186. StJ:  Or MSFT's ability to innovate was utterly destroyed by that moron Ballmer. You wonder how Gates avoids the temptation to run it again.  Or perhaps he handed off leadership to the better man after all.

  187. SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!  

    Futures off a bit but bouncing off 17,000, 1,987.5, 4,060 and ,1,155 so far.  /YM is a good long at 17,000 and /TF at 1,155 with tight stops below and as long as the other hold.  

    Hang Seng fell 500 points (2%) – essentially rejected at 25,000 for the moment. The run was from 20,000 last year but good consolidation on a pullback to 21,000 this year means we can use the 20% run from 21,000 to 25,200 and expect a 20% retrace (840) to 24,360 (weak) and 23,520 (strong) and there was good consolidation around 23,500 on the way up so it looks like the Bots are firmly in control of that index.


    The Nikkei, on the other hand, made a fresh high and tested 15,800 again with /NKD hitting 15,845 (now 15,825) on no particular move in the Dollar (84.30) but the Yen made a new low at 106.78 as the Euro popped back to $1.295.  It looks to me as if the BOJ and the Swiss were buying Euros. Shanghai was down 0.35%, India down 0.66% and Singapore down 0.13% for the day.

    I definitely like /NKD short below 15,800 – especially if our indexes are heading down.  

    UK hit 6,800 and bounced there – down 0.16%.  DAX is down 0.4%, CAC down 0.3%, Italy down 0.4% and Spain down 0.9%.

    Oil $92.81, gold $1,254.70, silver $19.07, copper $3.09, Nat gas $3.96 and gasoline $2.55.

    AAPL has settled in just over $98 in overnight trading.  

























    To some extent, the shortfall in revenues is not surprising. The administration has implemented a contractionary fiscal policy (cutting taxes [1], cutting spending to increase the budget balance which drives down output and hence revenues. The main tax cuts were:

    • An income tax rate reduction, included in the state’s two-year budget that passed in 2013, which reduced revenue by $648 million over two years;
    • A 2013 property tax cut of $100 million; and
    • A 2014 tax package that further cut income tax rates and also included another property tax cut. The combined package reduced revenue by $507 million over two years.

    Winter forecast (El Nino):

    Meteorologists Predict Record Shattering Snowfalls Coming Soon; Bread & Milk Prices Expected To Soar

  189. Nice pop in the Futures already.  17,050 on /YM and 1,159 on /TF – out on both if we lose 17,050 now.

  190. My Daughter’s Homework Is Killing Me

    What happens when a father, alarmed by his 13-year-old daughter's nightly workload, tries to do her homework for a week
    House Republicans have gutted a White House-sponsored bill that would direct…

    This is well done:

  191. DBC/Eric – I don't see the 55% energy side making a big comeback – I like DBA a lot more – food is something they're not finding alternatives for. 

    AliBaba /Wombat – Well, it's a good point but I would counter that with NFLX, AMZN, TSLA, GOOG (new split), GMCR…  Let's not assume investors are suddenly going to be concerned with facts.  Also, they do have over a 60% market share in CHINA!!! – that's pretty hard to replicate and will be a lot harder for companies that don't raise $20Bn.  Owning a small piece of that is kind of attractive.  

    Watches/ZZ – Good point, they are a status symbol to some extent but, at $350, not a big barrier to entry.  Still, I was surprised by the "fashion angle" I've been reading about on the iWatch – they seem to have made those people very happy and that's a big deal. 

    Watch/Albo – I think the mistake was doing the Wallet first and then the Watch – I think if they had treated the watch like it was just an accessory and not a big deal and treated the wallet like it was the big game-changer, they would have had much better control of the narrative to investors.  Not that AAPL cares about such things, though.  

    Minecraft/StJ – That game is very popular but $2Bn???  It's played by children and they move on to Sims and Warcraft when they get older – I don't see how they monetize it.  



  192. Still liking /NKD short as we weaken, now 15,820. 

  193. Mortgage applications plunge to 14-year low

    Just a slight trend higher in interest rates was enough to stall both potential home buyers and borrowers looking to refinance their loans.

    Read more:

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  194. Luxury watch shares lose shine on Apple Watch fears

    Shares in luxury watchmakers lost their shine on Wednesday after Apple released its hotly-anticipated smartwatch.

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  195. Shell: Ebola, geopolitical risks are now ‘acute’

    The Ebola virus and tensions in the Middle East have yet to hit Shell’s operations, but oil major recognises the risks are “acute and widespread.”

    Read more:

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  196. France admits it will miss 2015 deficit target

    France’s Finance Minister announced France will need until 2017 to bring its public deficit down to three percent of output.

    Read more:

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  197. Substantial job ‘gaps’ are threatening recovery

    The “persistent” shortfall in the number and quality of jobs in the world’s largest economies is threatening the recovery, a new report shows.

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  198. Australia consumer sentiment suffers setback

    A measure of Australian consumer sentiment suffered a sharp reversal in September as households became more concerned about the outlook for the economy and employment.

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  199. Japan to OK nuclear plant return, close old reactors

    Japan is set to give the go-ahead to restart its idled nuclear industry just as it moves to definitively close some of its oldest reactors, launching a cull of the long-monolithic industry.

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  200. NYSE and Russell just off their 50 DMA again! My VIX indicator close to "dip" level again.

  201. The most valuable comic books of all time

    Comic books are a vital part of the collectibles market and can prove profitable for collectors holding highly sought and rare items.

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  202. StJ / watch:


    I wear a Tissot T Touch which is quite interesting having altimeter, compass chrono, alarm, and thermometer plus 2 different hours one digital one in dial, electric but is not a smathwatch. you can swim, even dice 20 mt with it, very nice.

    And I could spent a few minutes with Applewatch, the only  "but" i found is that you need a Iphone near, that kills the market (as you said)  out of U.S.

    It will not be an important new line of product., perhaps will be as Ipod will see.

  203. Phil/Minecraft is for kids – Not true, I am 23 years old and was introduced to Minecraft in college, lots of people played it – and not just the "nerds," but also frat guys.  There's a good amount of money to be made there, although I agree with you that $2Bn is a bit much.