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#Bendgate Hoax Exposed – Who is Attacking Apple?

iPhone 6 Plus GIF 3What a controversy!  

By now, we've all seen the "Bengate" video of the iPhone 6+ being bent by hand but now it turns out that the video that's gone viral may have been FAKED!!!  This is a video that knocked 5% off AAPL's stock price this week, costing its investors $30Bn in lost market value – so not a harmless hoax.

As a disclaimer, it's important to note that, in our first Webcast of the year, we picked AAPL as our top trade idea and again, on TV on March 6th, I was almost embarrassed to say AAPL was once again our trade of the year for BNN (it was last year's trade too).  AAPL is up 33% since than and our initial trade idea is up over 300% (we used options for leverage) but we still have bullish AAPL trades in our Member Portfolios – so we do like the company and have some bias…

That being said, we don't know the bias of "Unbox Therapy" and we don't KNOW that it's a hoax but it's starting to seem like one as AAPL has already put out a rare public statement rebuffing the claim, stating that only 9 customers to date have complained of bent phones (out of 20M sold) and now Consumer Reports has done a test confirming that, indeed, you can't bend an iPhone 6 Plus with your bare hands.  

Speaking of hands, there are some inconsistencies in the Unbox video that are very disturbing.  First of all, look at the hands in the image above and then look at the guy narrating the video – people are saying those are not the same hands.  That may or may not be the case but it is certainly the case that there's a huge discrepancy in the video itself:

iPhone 6 BendGate analysisAs you can see, the phone he is bending "live" at 1:38 in the video says it's Tuesday, 23rd at 2:26 but then, 40 seconds later, the "same" phone says it's 1:58.  This is not an editing discrepancy since he had an UNBENT phone just seconds before 2:26 that he "bent" on camera (or someone's hands did!).  This is quite the scandal!  

While this is all kind of funny to the casual observer there are, in fact, BILLIONS of dollars on the line and look how easy it is to short AAPL stock at $103 on the 23rd, have 9 people report a bent phone in the first few days of release (that would go without notice) and then release a video showing a phone bending and making a fast 5% as the stock dropped over $5.  In fact, with options, the October $95 puts shot up from $1 to $3.50 – a 250% gain based on the release of one questionable video.  

Who besides market manipulators would stand to benefit from this sort of thing?  How about Samsung, HTC, Nokia… Corporate espionage is a very real thing and anything that causes people to buy a million less iPhones over even a made-up controversy means a million more sales for their competitors.  In fact, this wasn't the first attempt to create a "Bendgate" scandal – the same thing was said about the iPhone 5 when it first came out – but that video never gained any traction.  This time they got it right!  

Most of those videos did come out of China, where many rival phones, and the iPhones are manufactured.  Those videos were ignored and, as you can see from the Consumer Reports test, as well as the actual two-year use of 100M iPhone 5s – that was complete and obvious BS.  The difference with the current Bendgate videos is the "trustability" of the Canadian blogger and the timing – so soon after the release that people have no other experience with this model to compare it to.  

At Philstockworld, we teach our Members to find the TRUTH in investments, not to simply react to the latest rumors.  We took advantage of this little dip in AAPL to take a few more long positions but we'll be happy to see others panic out and create better entry opportunities down the road.  As I reminded our Members, the same thing happened in 2011, when Cramer and his goon squad at TheStreet and many other media sources acted like the death of Steve Jobs would be the death of AAPL.

I told our Members to BUYBUYBUY – that was over 100% ago.

 


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  1. Phil don't forget my theory that bending the new Iphone creates a time warp that sends you back in time about 30 minutes. This is the do over app! Wow, those Apple guys really are amazing!



  2. After Koch-Tied Judge Is Reversed, Walker Probe Rests With Conflicted Wisconsin Supreme Court

    A federal appellate court has shut down Judge Rudolph Randa's decision halting the criminal probe into Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and allied groups, rejecting Randa's interpretation of campaign finance law and declaring the investigation best resolved by state courts.

    The investigation remains halted by a state court decision from January, and the probe's future now rests with Wisconsin appellate courts. However, some justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court could have a conflict of interest: the four-justice Republican majority was elected by millions in spending from the same groups under investigation in the coordination probe, calling into question whether they can be impartial.

    Wednesday's decision from the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals ordered Judge Randa to throw out the federal lawsuit filed by Wisconsin Club for Growth and its director Eric O'Keefe, declaring that Randa never should have taken the case in the first place. The unanimous decision was authored by Judge Frank Easterbrook, a Ronald Reagan appointee and prominent conservative jurist.

    Judge Easterbrook, writing for the three-judge panel, held that Randa's May 6 rulinghalting the investigation was "imprudent," "unnecessary," and "an abuse of discretion." Randa regularly attended judicial junkets funded by the Koch and Bradley foundations, financial interests tied to the groups under investigation, the Center for Media and Democracy discovered earlier this year.

    Randa acted improperly when he interfered with an ongoing state criminal investigation, being conducted under state law, and overseen by state courts, Easterbrook wrote. Randa ran afoul of the federal Anti-Injunction Act barring federal courts from enjoining state proceedings, as well as judicial principles of federalism and comity, the 7th Circuit panel held.

    “State courts are free to conduct their own litigation, without ongoing supervision by federal judges, let alone threats by federal judges to hold state judges in contempt,” Easterbrook wrote.

    Wow, the crap that goes on in this world!  


  3. Good notes by Consumer Metrics on the GDP Report – my pet peeve is Inventory Growth should NOT be considered a positive to GDP – it simply means we're making things that aren't selling:

    We caution that a "face value" reading could be seriously misleading. Let's quickly review the reasons for our concern: 



    -- Consumer spending provided 38% of the headline growth while representing nearly 70% of the spending. Real per-capita disposable income has grown only 2% (in aggregate!) since 2008, at a minuscule 0.37% annualized rate. Household spending remains constrained, and a healthy (and increasing) savings rate indicates that the majority of consumers remain skeptical about the veracity and sustainability of this purported "recovery." 



    -- Inventories tend to revert to their means. This quarter's inventory growth is essentially the flip side of last quarter's contraction in what is (over the long haul) a largely zero-sum series. 



    -- Surging exports fly in the face of both softening economic growth among our major trading partners and a strengthening dollar. When trade fully re-acclimates to the new exchange realities it will be the export numbers that will suffer the most. 



    It is here that we would normally caution that a plausibly noisy "final" 2nd quarter growth could get reversed in the next quarter's first report, just as it did in 2000. But we also need to remind you that the next report will be issued just 5 days before the mid-term elections. In 2000, the next report after the flaky "final" 2Q-2000 numbers was also just days before a major election, and the bombshell reversal of economic fortunes did not treat the incumbents quite so well. 



    The next report should be interesting.

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  4. Interesting week… Plenty of data and the prospect of more free money in Europe!


  5. It she had been elected, she would not have been able to get to the meetings at the White House:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/sarah-palin-1400-pennsylvania-avenue

    The comments came during a speech Friday at the Values Voter Summit. Palin was describing how conservatives shouldn't retreat when they're accused of being racist. Palin said "truth is an endangered species" at "1400 Pennsylvania Avenue." The White House is located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.


  6. Phil,

    from late last night…

    Thx for the specific ideas on the ABX option workout. Opens up interesting possibilities. My remaining question has to do with the macroeconomics of gold and the timing of entering a position. The 2013 divergence between gold and money supply I assume was and is due to QE and the decreased velocity of money. That being the case, wouldn’t gold continue to diverge from the money supply (Big Disconnect) until the Fed really does stop printing and really does taper ? How realistic is that in the current economic/political environment? Until the velocity of money increases (due to much stronger economy) wouldn’t inflation and gold be expected to remain at depressed levels? If my reasoning is correct wouldn’t the first concrete indication that the FED is about to reverse course be the trigger to enter gold?

    Thanks again


  7. Felix Salmon's reviews Martin Wolf's book:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/28/books/review/the-shifts-and-the-shocks-by-martin-wolf.html?_r=0

    I love Wolf's solution to many of our problems. Not perfect, but he thinks outside the box:

    Wolf may have a central banker’s technocratic soul and deeply rooted fluency in economics, but he also has withering scorn for what central bankers have wrought. “The view that stabilizing inflation was a sufficient condition for economic stability has been proved grotesquely wrong,” he writes. “The truth is the opposite.” In a world in which it’s largely taken for granted that the job of a central bank is to keep inflation low, Wolf persuasively argues that central banks should target a much higher rate of inflation, noting that, in the eurozone, “inflation of 3 to 4 percent a year would not be a disaster” and would actually be very helpful in terms of getting the European economy back on its feet.

    And that’s not the most radical thing Wolf wants central bankers to do. Modern banks hold just a small fraction of their deposits in cash. But Wolf, finding that fractional-reserve banking was a key cause of the financial crisis, says all banks should have much higher capital requirements, and then goes much further: He spends a lot of time describing an economy in which banks have to back up all their deposits with reserves held at the central bank. Such a system, he says, is “definitely an experiment worth making.” As Wolf puts it, “No industry should have the capacity to inflict economic costs that may even surpass those of a world war.”

    More at the link. I don't know that I am going to read the book – looks a bit wonkish. Conclusion:

    Which is why, despite Wolf’s attempts to don the garb of a revolutionary, this book is actually something more familiar, and more depressing: a wonkish eschatology of how the global economy, and Europe’s in particular, is doomed. If Wolf’s prescriptions aren’t followed, he says, “further crises seem certain,” erupting again and again, “until governments are no longer able to prevent some kind of fiscal or monetary collapse.” And it’s the collapse, not the revolution, that is Wolf’s base-case scenario. His final words? “Our open world economy could end in the fire.”


  8. This one is for you Phil – problems with TA. I still think that there is some room for analysis, but combined with risk managing strategies:

    http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/23376-swedroe-problems-with-technical-analysis.html

    The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns. They write: “This conclusion consistently holds even if we allow predictability to be state dependent on business cycles or sentiment regimes.”

    One problem with technical market indicators is there is no risk story to explain why they should work. If ever they did work, it would be a result of behavioral errors among investors.

    Because that’s the case, we shouldn’t be surprised if—once research is published showing a market indicator works—the signal’s value rapidly deteriorates and eventually disappears. We can see this occurring in the above example, where a strategy worked for 100 years until the publication of that finding, when it then stopped working.


  9. Phil

    As I tried to point out Apple chose style over function  for the most important reason. An IPhone sticking out of a girls back pocket is required like jewelry or make up, a few don't even work, and I have no clue how to find that link. That said 99% of all women weigh over 70 or 90 pounds some many times that. I have a weak unstable left hand and I could bend either I6 with my hands. I played your clip and they did not say this:

    ~~Consumer Reports has done a test confirming that, indeed, you can't bend an iPhone 6 Plus with your bare hands.

    I think people should be careful and you have no clue how strong your hands are. Benndgate is out of control and it won't change Women want an Apple sticking out of their back pocket even bent.


  10. Good reviews in the success of Piketty's book:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/sep/21/-sp-thomas-piketty-bestseller-why

    The Occupy movement laid the groundwork for a great debate. What was happening to America? Were we witnessing the rise of a plutocracy or the emergence of a meritocracy? Chris Hayes and Joe Stiglitz made the case on the left, while Tyler Cowen and David Brooks provided a counter-narrative for the right. Both sides had a loyal following, but it was Piketty whose meticulous examination of the evidence, seemed to provide the impartial proof audiences were craving. The left was right. The wealthy owed their fortunes to their forefathers and the Congressman who wrote the loopholes for their tax accountants to exploit. It’s a conclusion that confirmed many priors, which probably explains much of its success.


  11. And Brad DeLong's conclusions:

    I confess that I do not know. I do have a guess. My guess is that the book-buying upper-middle class of America today is greatly distressed when it looks at the world around it, specifically at two things.

    The first is that our society today is largely failing its non-migrant non-college-completing majority, in that for all of our cheap electronic toys, life is no easier than it was a generation ago in spite of an enormous explosion of technology and productivity.

    The second is that they now know of a plutocracy that did not use to exist and makes us very uneasy. Last generation’s Michigan governor and American Motors president George Romney lived in a large-but-not-abnormal house and bossed a company that created lots of good jobs at good wages. This generation’s Massachusetts governor and Bain Capital CEO Mitt Romney has seven houses worth perhaps $25M in total, and bossed a company whose core business model appears to have been exploiting legal anomalies like the fact that pension funds have little control over their money after it’s invested.


  12. stjean

    I am going to request that book at the library.


  13. Shadow unless you bought two Iphones and bent them I don't get how you know that you could. If you borrowed them and bent them, that wouldn't be nice. So, how do you know you can bend either one without actually doing it? 

    I went to the mall today, and the Apple store was packed with a line of about 30 people waiting outside the door. I took pictures but since Phil wisely doesn't allow the rest of us to post pictures, you will have to take my word for it. So, nothing slowing down the beautiful people in the Philly suburbs from getting there new Iphones! 


  14. I took pictures too, will post later, store was busy with a small line. MSFT store was empty.   I actually saw a few people trying to bend the 6s, but I guess they weren't as strong as Shadow and, more tellingly, the staff didn't try to stop them.  

    Meanwhile, after saying how I was fine with my 5, the second I saw the 6 I wanted it.  It's beautiful – just a bit bigger but half as thick and the curves make it sexy.  The 6 plus is great too but I can't see having it in my pocket but, for trips and meetings where I'm likely to want the web, I'd love to have it.  If they can come up with one plan for two phones (same number), then I'd want the 6+.  

    Meanwhile Maddie scoffed at the whole thing until she used the camera, which they seem to have improved drastically.  Sadly, I am going to force myself to wait for Christmas, I think…


  15. Hey Phil - 

    Interesting take on Bendgate.  The time discrepancy is interesting.  Also, if you look at the "Bending" video, that guy's hands are applying A Lot of pressure … look at his fingers …

    Hope all is well…

     

    Any thoughts on Energy stocks getting annihilated recently ?  It can't be all oil price related IMO; I tend to think a major fund or funds getting liquidated into quarter end.   

    Either some ridiculously cheap stocks in E&P universe, or something big and bad lurking … I tend towards the former, but that's just opinion.


  16. Howdy Cap!  Long time, no see.   I think the energy stocks have a lagging reaction to oil, which is come down more than 10% in the last three months.   Don't forget that extra 10% is about half of their margins.   They held up for a while, but once they began excepting the fact that oil prices weren't coming back any time soon, then profit expectations began to fall.

    Over the long haul, of course it's going to come back – but it may be a while.  We're liking RIG and XCO and BTU for coal along with CLF, FCX, SLW and ABX in other materials as well. 

    Global demand is terrible but I think if we don't turn back up there will be some real infrastructure stimulus next year from the G20. 


  17. Damn, the text typing makes me sound kind of dumb, but you get the idea… ????


  18. I don't think the numbers should come down that much, but good point.

    I own XCO (and some CLF and FCX).  Many names better than XCO, but in the 3's percentage return even back to 5-6 is huge.

    RIG has gotten crushed; HAL holds up much better.


  19. Different business, RIG down hard as deep oil most expensive and cut back first but, over the long haul, a great value.  


  20. Sry for repost, but just saw we have a new thread.

    Question on Delta and Hedges.  

    I used to use the greeks as a measure of my exposure to market moves.  Delta would tell me how long or short I am, vega would be my exposure to vol increase, etc.

    Now with things like SQQQ, if you are long SQQQ it will show a long delta, even though it's actually a negative effect on delta since it's an inverse ETF.

    Anyone have any ideas how to deal with this?

     

    @wombat, more info on Causwells on old post.


  21. craig

    This week doing repairs I torqued One nut to 150 ft/lb and another to 120. What really gets the deal is I was given some lever type entrance door knobs. I never believed Arlyn got locked out without her fault until I was checking each time but when I went out to pick vegetables with  a bucket and scissors it locked me out. I tried to kick in the door but I put 3" hardened screws in there so nothing gave. I actually after 20 minutes ripped the handle off including the outside base, then with scissors pried out the lock and with same twisted the shaft and unlocked it. I couldn't bend anything back, 1/8" steel, 2 levels. Not even the stronger 130 lbs to bend phones are not close the that tough, and that is after being hurt. When better I could lift 150 lbs with one hand, actually what I remember is 2 fingers was all I could grasp. On top of that I will bet the price of a phone I can destroy it and Consumer reports didn't say it couldn't be bent with your hands. I built houses, mechanical everything, body work cars, I will bet no one else has done any of the things that let you know what you can do and how strong your hands are. I have bent and dented so many things I just know. A neighbor came by an asked what is the problem? Then looked at the door knob and You did that? When you can't afford to hire people you find out most of it is simple and not very hard. I broke a 2 foot breaker bar determined to fix the suspension on my car, and only my right arm works, your fingers are what grabs that. So believe or lets try it while I said people should be careful it is a style phone! I could bend some steel and save a phone but not believing is saying I lie. The lie is saying it can't be done.


  22. From Bloomberg, Sep 27, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    The worst week for global equities
    in almost two months finished on a positive note as optimism in
    the economy’s strength helped counter a procession of concerns
    from geopolitics to valuations and interest rates.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/YlLHbQ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  23. From Bloomberg, Sep 27, 2014, 10:03:10 PM


    Bill Gross, co-founder and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., will join Janus Capital Group Inc., the company said. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

    Pacific Investment Management Co.,
    seeking to calm investors after the surprise departure of co-founder and former chief investment officer Bill Gross, said
    there will be no major changes in investment strategy at the
    manager of the world’s biggest bond fund.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1uvs92V

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  24. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 11:51:55 PM


    Bill Gross, co-founder and chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    After building the biggest and most powerful bond fund in the world over three decades, Bill Gross engineered a hasty exit. With his deputies at Pacific Investment Management Co. threatening to quit and management debating his ouster, the bond king was losing control of the $2 trillion firm he created almost singlehandedly.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/YnDl3v

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  25. From Bloomberg, Sep 27, 2014, 3:02:21 PM


    The oil production platform at the Sakhalin-I field in Russia, partly owned by ONGC Videsh Ltd., Rosneft Oil Co., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Japan’s Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development Co. on June 9, 2009. Source: ONGC Videsh Ltd. via Bloomberg

    Russia, viewed by the Obama administration as hostile to U.S. interests, has discovered what may prove to be a vast pool of oil in one of the world’s most remote places with the help of America’s largest energy company.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pikMVI

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  26. From Bloomberg, Sep 28, 2014, 7:52:17 AM

    Protesters use barricades to block the road outside government offices during a protest in Hong Kong, China, in the early morning hours of Sept. 28, 2014. Photographer: Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg

    Thousands of Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrators defied tear gas and pepper spray to occupy the city center, as police undertook the biggest crackdown since the city returned to Chinese rule.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1u4P8R4

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  27. From Bloomberg, Sep 27, 2014, 11:09:50 PM


    Masayoshi Son, Chief Executive Officer of SoftBank Corp. Photographer: Noriyuki Aida/Bloomberg

    Softbank Corp., the Japanese wireless carrier headed by Masayoshi Son, is in talks to buy Jeffrey Katzenberg’s DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. film studio, people familiar with the situation said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1CwvHmY

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  28. From Bloomberg, Sep 24, 2014, 7:29:18 AM

    Customers stand in line at the Apple Inc. for the new the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus in Sydney on Sept. 19, 2014. Photographer: Lisa Maree Williams/Bloomberg

    Unlike about 10 million other people, Paul Roberts isn’t upgrading his iPhone. He’s sticking to his two-and-a-half year old iPhone 4S as long as possible.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rmWAGi

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  29. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 5:57:16 PM

    A health worker wearing a protective suit has his goggles adjusted as they join members of the Medecins Sans Frontieres Ebola treatement center near Conakry, Guinea on Sept. 25. Photographer: Cellou Binani/AFP via Getty Images

    There are a lot of scary numbers floating around about Ebola. Take 1.4 million: the CDC’s worst-case scenario for Ebola cases in Western Africa by the end of January. Or two: the approximate number of healthy people infected by each new Ebola patient.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/YlIclZ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  30. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 10:04:11 AM

    Consumer confidence climbed in
    September to a 14-month high as Americans’ outlooks for the
    economy improved.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1okqMgA

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  31. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 7:01:00 PM

    The European Central Bank would be
    prepared to enact more stimulus measures if necessary to
    increase liquidity in the euro area, ECB Governing Council
    member Luc Coene said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1uNmDp1

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  32. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 4:56:10 AM


    Cranes operate at a residential construction site, center right, in Hanoi. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    Vietnam’s economic growth
    accelerated in the third quarter as rising foreign investment
    boosted manufacturing and exports (VEEXTYOY), helping counter slower
    lending by banks.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ok30Bm

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  33. From Bloomberg, Sep 27, 2014, 7:32:18 AM

    Source: Chart of the Day

    Pour yourself a tall cup of black coffee, settle into your favorite easy chair and enjoy our longer-form weekend reads:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1rA03S6

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  34. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 5:56:23 AM

    India’s credit rating outlook was
    raised to stable from negative by Standard & Poor’s, removing
    the risk of a downgrade to junk status for Prime Minister
    Narendra Modi as the U.S. weighs when to boost interest rates.
    The rupee surged the most in six weeks.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DBZoVd

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  35. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 5:12:33 PM


    So who’s paying for it?

    Arnold Kling asks an interesting question: How can New York real estate be so expensive when the median income is so low?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1rkvRLx

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  36. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 2:53:33 PM


    Veritas, and big returns.

    It’s the time of year when elite universities vie for bragging rights about the performance of their endowments. The probable winner this year is Yale University, which posted a whopping 20.2 percent return. Dartmouth reported a 19.2 percent return, and the University of Pennsylvania showed 17.5 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1rqe4RS

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  37. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 12:48:17 PM

    And the winner is….

    Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is running a magic show. By pretending his country has a chance of joining the European Union or NATO, he is hoping to obscure Kiev’s, and Europe’s, gradual capitulation to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1yuatHM

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  38. From Bloomberg, Sep 26, 2014, 7:29:15 PM


    Marissa Mayer has been working to turn around Yahoo since she joined the Web portal in 2012. The pressure for results has increased since the initial public offering last week of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., in which Yahoo owns a stake and which had driven much of the Silicon Valley company’s value. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

    The pressure on Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Chief Executive Officer Marissa Mayer has just ramped up.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rz5GzS

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  39. Phil,

    Question from earlier…. Until the velocity of money increases (due to much stronger economy) wouldn’t inflation and gold be expected to remain at depressed levels? If my reasoning is correct, (assuming Congress does not pass stimulus legislation) wouldn’t the first concrete indication that the FED is about to reverse course be the trigger to enter gold?

    Thanks in advance




  40. How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
    http://www.economicprinciples.org/


  41. Police and Protesters Escalate Clashes in Hong Kong
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/29/world/asia/clashes-in-hong-kong.html



  42. John Oliver rips apart the insane math of the Miss America contest
    http://www.vox.com/xpress/2014/9/22/6826325/john-oliver-miss-america-scholarship-math


  43. Demographics – The West’s age distribution is too lopsided to support entitlements
    http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/09/video-demographics-the-wests-age-distribution-is-too-lopsided-to-support-entitlements/


  44. Mathematics 101: The Money Printing Machine And CAPE
    http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/09/money-printing-fed/?_escaped_fragment_?Zm8b


  45. There goes the neighborhoods: 6 billionaires who ruined their surrounding environs
    http://www.salon.com/2014/09/28/there_goes_the_neighborhoods_6_billionaires_who_ruined_their_surrounding_environs_partner/


  46. Old Energy Is Doing Everything It Can To Hold Back The Rise Of Solar
    http://www.businessinsider.com/r-taxes-fees-the-worldwide-battle-between-utilities-and-solar--2014-9


  47. The Misunderstood Global Financial Crisis. “It’s the Energy Stupid”
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-misunderstood-global-financial-crisis-its-the-energy-stupid/5404783


  48. It’s Time For Microsoft To Kill Any Global Ambitions For Windows Phone
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2014/09/23/microsoft-should-kill-windows-phone/



  49. The Greatest Books of All Time, As Voted by 125 Famous Authors
    http://www.brainpickings.org/2012/01/30/writers-top-ten-favorite-books/



  50. From Bloomberg, Sep 28, 2014, 5:01:35 PM

    Demonstrators use barricades to block the entrance of the Citic Tower during a protest in Hong Kong, China, in the early morning hours of Sunday, Sept. 28, 2014. Photographer: Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg

    Hong Kong investors prepared for a
    stock-market retreat and made arrangements to work outside the
    financial district amid the biggest police crackdown on
    protesters since the city returned to Chinese rule.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qK2AUw

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  51. From Bloomberg, Sep 28, 2014, 12:41:30 PM


    Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said today that two soon-to-be-released economic reports from his Fed district would “knock your socks off.” Photographer: Jim Stem/Bloomberg

    The Federal Reserve mustn’t “fall
    behind the curve” as it weighs when to start raising interest
    rates
    , Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said, citing
    strengthening U.S. growth and building wage-price pressures.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1u5ceXG

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  52. Shadow- I am sorry if you mistook my comments as critical, but I would never call anyone a liar in a group like this where I like all and want to befriends all the members and have camaraderie, unless I had incontrovertible truth and a darn good reason to start a fight.. If you read that again, What I ask you is how you can be sure unless you try it! You explain that you are sure you could and maybe you can, but it still isn't knowing beyond a doubt by trying. That's all, and it was just an innocent aside. I am on your team and have no reason to call you a liar, so take my word that it was conversation/discussion and we should be able to disagree without anger. I simply disagree with your definition of "sure" as in "I am sure I can bend  it with one hand." I am certain that you are sure, but putting yourself in the shoes of someone else, how can they be truly sure with no evidence other than your personal experience with other things.Take care and I wish you a pain free future.

    Craig

    I guess my loss of religious beliefs has affected my faith in anyone or anything!


  53. Good morning! 

    Half of Friday's BS gains are fading out in the Futures – down 0.5% so far but the quarter ends tomorrow and I expect every effort will be made to save it until then.  

    The Plunge Protection Team Is Opening An HFT-Focused Chicago Office

    Hang Seng led Asia down almost 2% (450 points) with protests swelling but Shanghai defiantly ignored it and gained half a point, along with the Nikkei (16,310) while India and Singapore were flat. 

    Europe is also down half a point with Economic Sentiment losing about 1% in September but there's an ECB decision on Thursday and Draghi speaks so hope should spring eternal over there.  

    S&P Warns On Germany As Anti-Euro Political Party Soars In Popularity

    Goldman(GS): "Some European Economies Already Qualify As A Japanese-Style Stagnation"

    "Hope Is Not Good Policy" – Saxo Bank Warns The Entire World Is Headed For A Minsky Moment

    It Was A Bad Weekend For Europe

    Geneva Report warns record debt and slow growth point to crisis. A “poisonous combination” of record debt and slowing growth suggest the global economy could be heading for another crisis, a hard-hitting report will warn on Monday.

    Political reticence blunts ECB’s asset purchase plan

    Ifo's Sinn Urges Germany to Act Against ECB ABS Purchases. Germany should take legal moves to oppose the European Central Bank's purchase of asset-backed securities, Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the Ifo economic institute, says in preview of guest editorial to be published in the coming edition. ECB would exceed its treaty-restricted monetary mandate with the planned purchases, Sinn said.

    Fisher Says Fed Must Weigh Wage Pressures in Setting Rate PolicyThe Federal Reserve mustn’t “fall behind the curve” as it weighs when to start raising interest rates, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said, citing strengthening U.S. growth and building wage-price pressures. Fisher, a vocal advocate for tighter monetary policy to protect against inflation, also said today that two soon-to-be-released economic reports from his Fed district would “knock your socks off.”

    Peak Debt – Why The Keynesian Money Printers Are Done

    John Hussman Just Issued His Strongest Warning Of A Stock Market Crash Yet

    Warren Calls For Hearings on New York Fed AllegationsU.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for a congressional investigation into allegations that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had been too deferential to the institutions it regulated. “Congress must hold oversight hearings on the disturbing issues raised by today’s whistle-blower report when it returns in November — because it’s our job to make sure our financial regulators are doing their jobs,” Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement today. 

    The Escape Velocity Delusion: Running Out Of "Next Year"

    What Consumer-Facing CEOs Think: "It's Like Being At War"

    Macy's(M) CEO Offers An Ominous Insight About American Consumers

    Hedge Funds Raise Bullish Cocoa Bets on Ebola Concerns. Hedge funds raised bullish bets on cocoa before prices climbed to the highest since 2011 on concern that the deadly Ebola disease will disrupt supplies from West Africa, which produces 70 percent of global supply. Money managers raised their net-long positions by the most in 16 weeks.

    $10B withdrawn from Pimco following Gross departure

    • Following the shock resignation of Bill Gross from Pimco on Friday, investors withdrew about $10B from the investment firm, WSJ reports.
    • Gross's $222B Pimco Total Return Fund (NYSEARCA:BOND) (PTTAX) already experienced significant outflows before he announced his departure, with investors withdrawing almost $70B between May 2013 and August 2014.
    • Despite the news, CEO Douglas Hodge is confident that the vast majority of clients will stay with the firm. Parent company Allianz (OTCQX:AZSEY) also confirmed that it has no plans to sell the company or interfere more in the business.
    • Additional mutual fund share classes: PTTPXPTTRXPTTBXPTTCXPTTDXPTUPX,PTUZXPTUCXPTUIX

    "I Am Putting Everything In Goldman Sachs Because These Guys Can Do Whatever The Hell They Want"

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will face accusations this week from the European Commission, as the preliminary findings over its tax affairs in Ireland are made public.
    • European regulators will accuse Apple of benefiting from illicit state aid in Ireland for more than two decades, which could leave the company with a record fine of as much as several billions of euros, FT reports.
    • The probe is part of a formal investigation into European corporate tax codes,  which is also investigating Fiat (OTCPK:FIATY) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX).

    Here's a good chart from BAC – Indicates how badly stretched margin debt is while return on that borrowed capital is falling.  Any downturn in the market can be sharply exaggerated under these conditions as all those bets tend to unwind quickly:  

    Also – WOW – talk about going up with narrow participation:


  54. Gold/8800 – Don't forget the Central Banksters hold about 30,000 tons of gold ($72Bn) that is constantly flowing in and out so THEY set the price of gold at whatever they want and low gold prices mean low inflation and stable money to most people so they want to keep that illusion going for as long as possible. 

    Gold Chart

    Only 4,000 tonnes a year are added to the supply, so all that BS about demand here or there is nonsense compared to any Central Bank (or ETF, GLD would be #6 with 1,300 tonnes) adding to or subtracting from their supply.  

    demand and supply of gold Supply and Demand of Gold

    Right now, it suits all of the World's Central Banks to keep their population from hoarding gold so they are making it look unattractive as an investment.  Inflation is AN aspect of gold but not THE aspect – gold is a rare metal which is easy to verify so it can't be counterfeited or over-produced.  That's not true about money at all.  I'm not advocating gold as a short-term bet but, over the next decade or so – I think it's safe to say SOMETHING will happen that will send it back to its highs.  

    If you are trading ABX, then it's going to go up or down and makes for a scary trade BUT, if you are buying ABX because they have $150Bn worth of gold reserves and are priced at $27Bn – then I think it's a fantastic INVESTMENT!  


  55. Wolf/StJ – I agree, low inflation is terrible for the economy but it's good for bankers when they lend long-term money out at fixed rates, because they want to get paid back in money that has roughly the same value.  Wolf's problem is he works under the illusion that the Fed gives a crap about helping the economy vs. helping its member banks maximize their profits.  Same goes for capital requirements, loose requirements mean the banks don't need money and that means they don't have to offer you anything for your savings – these are all the post-Reagan cons we've come to accept that are destroying the Middle Class.  

    TA/StJ – Thanks for that one, sounds about right to me.  I think Malkiel sums it up very nicely, the reason there are not many studies to show what BS TA is is the same reason there aren't a lot of studies showing you that Astrology or Tarot Cards or Palm Reading aren't real – it's so obvious to the people who might do the studies that they don't see the point and, for the unconvinced, it's more like religion and you're not likely to change their opinion with a study, so why bother?  

    Burton Malkiel, author of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” writes: “Technical analysis is anathema to the academic world. We love to pick on it. Our bullying tactics are prompted by two considerations: The method is patently false; and it’s easy to pick on. And while it may seem a bit unfair to pick on such a sorry target, just remember: it’s your money we are trying to save.”

    Bendgate/Shadow – I don't know why you don't just make a video, this guys new video got 1.8M hits, probably about $30,000 in ad revenues for bending an iPhone.

    See, he did it on the street, so it must be real!  


  56. Clearly it's Consumer Reports and AAPL who are lying, right?  Unlike Shadow, I don't know for a fact what's true so forgive me for gathering more information on both sides of the issue, folks…

    And, by the way, don't you think it's a bit misleading for the Unbox guy to put out a video called "The Bend Uncut" without doing any such thing?  There's a controversy questioning the obvious editing flaws (in the very least) of his phone-bending video and all he has to do is ACTUALLY put up the uncut footage but, instead, he titles a video as if he has but then engages in street theater instead.  

    Piketty/StJ – Good, maybe this time people will actually read it!   Good point by DeLong too but, unfortunately, the conclusion the "book-buying upper-middle class" comes to after reading those paragraphs is that they should invest some money with Bain Capital.  angry

    Delta/Burr – As a keeper of multiple portfolios, I long ago got into the habit of figuring out my exposure by OBSERVING the change in my total balance (delta) in various market conditions.  I saves incredible amounts of time and helps you learn which adjustments work best under what conditions.  Look what we did with the STP this week – we hit 60% and I regretted last time we hit 50% that was stayed so bearish as we dropped right back to 30% so this time we took off half the DXDs and, even after Friday's pop, we're still up 59.2% so we know EXACTLY what variable can be changed to immediately turn us more bullish or bearish.  

    As a rule of thumb, I try to simplify my indicators because, when it all hits the fan (and it often does), who has time to mess around?  


  57. Phil,

    Thanks for the in depth explanation of gold as an investment/trading vehicle. Parsing gold  – or anything  – as an investment vs a trade sure does reduce the importance of timing in the decision process..